Slide 2 Paul Precht Energy Economics Ltd.
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1 Oil Sands Economics Oil Sands 101 Presentation Calgary Ass n of Lifelong Learners and Petroleum History Society Paul Precht Energy Economist and Consultant 5 February 2013
2 Peter Lougheed on Oil Sands Development : It s out of control, and we re all going to pay a price for it Speaking at University of Alberta, March 7, 2007 Slide 2 5 February 2013
3 Outline of Presentation Oil sands economic indicators Production Investment Prices Costs Royalties Oil sands outlook Economic Rent Risk of rent dissipation Slide 3 5 February 2013
4 2.5 Alberta Liquid Petroleum Production (millions of bbl/day) Bitumen Upgraded Crude Oil C5+ Source: ERCB Slide 4 5 February 2013
5 Slide 5 Oil Sands Production History (millions of bbl/day) Bitumen from In Situ Bitumen from Mining SCO from In Situ SCO from Mining Source: CAPP 5 February 2011
6 Oil Industry Upstream Investment ($ billions) $30 60% $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Conv Oil & Gas Oil Sands Oil Sands as % of Total Source: CAPP Slide 6 5 February 2013
7 $25 Oil Sands Investment ($ billions) $20 $15 $10 $5 $ In-situ Mining Upgraders Source: CAPP Slide 7 5 February 2013
8 $140 Crude Oil & Bitumen Prices ($/bbl) $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $ Brent $Cdn WTI $Cdn WCS CL Bitumen Source: Calculations based on US DOE, Company Postings, Bank of Canada Slide 8 5 February 2013
9 $70 Crude Oil Price Differentials ($/bbl) $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ $10 Brent-WTI Mthly Brent-WCS Mthly Brent-Bitumen Mthly Brent-WTI Ann Avg Brent-WCS Ann Avg Brent-Bitumen Ann Avg Source: Calculated Slide 9 5 February 2013
10 105% Crude Oil Price Differentials (%) 90% 75% 60% 45% 30% WTI as % Brent WTI as % Brent (Annual Avg) WCS as % WTI Bitumen as % WTI WCS as % WTI (Annual Avg) Bitumen as % WTI (Annual Avg) Source: Calculated Slide 10 5 February 2013
11 $45 $40 $35 $30 $25 $20 $15 $10 $5 $0 Oil Sands Cash Operating Costs ($/bbl) COS Ltd Suncor Source: Company Annual Reports Slide 11 5 February 2013
12 300 Cost Indices: 2000= CPI - CA CPI - AB UCCI UOCI COSL/Suncor Source: Statistics Canada, IHS CERA, Company Annual Reports Slide 12 5 February 2013
13 Oil Sands Capital Cost Inflation Source: RBC Capital Slide 13 5 February 2013
14 $100 Supply Costs ($/bbl) $89.62 $80 $60 $40 $20 $15.64 $44.75 $30.50 $15.48 $61.05 $0 SAGD Mining & Upgrading Stand-Alone Mining Source: CERI Slide 14 5 February 2013
15 Alberta Non-Renewable Resource Revenues - $mm $18 Actual Forecast FHMT $16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $2 $0 $2 Rentals & Fees Bonuses & Lands Sales Coal $6 SCO & Bitumen $4 Crude Oil Nat Gas & By-Products ARTC/Drilling Stimulus Source: Alberta Treasury Board & Finance Slide 15 5 February 2013
16 Alberta Non-Renewable Resource Revenues - % 100% Actual Forecast FHMT 80% 60% 40% 20% Rentals & Fees Bonuses & Lands Sales Coal SCO & Bitumen Crude Oil 0% -20% Nat Gas & By- Products ARTC/Drilling Stimulus Source: Alberta Treasury Board & Finance Slide 16 5 February 2013
17 80% 70% Alberta Non-Renewable Resources Revenues Shares Actual Forecast 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NRRR as % of Total Rev Oil Sands Roy as % of NRRR Gas Roy as % of NRRR Source: Calculations based on Alberta Treasury Board & Finance Slide 17 5 February 2013
18 Productio on 106m3/yr 2,400 2,000 1,600 1, Alberta Crude Oil & Oil Sands Royalties and Production Actual Forecast Royaties $billions/yr Crude Oil Production Oil Sands Production Crude Oil Royalties Oil Sands Royalties Source: ERCB, Alberta Treasury Board & Finance Slide 18 5 February 2013
19 $5.00 Alberta Crude Oil & Oil Sands Royalties ($/bbl) Actual Forecast $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Crude Oil SCO & Bitumen Source: Calculations based on ERCB, Alberta Treasury Board & Finance Slide 19 5 February 2013
20 6,000,000 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 Oil Sands Production Forecasts (b/d) CAPP NEB ERCB CERI Source: CAPP, NEB, ERCB, CERI Slide 20 5 February 2013
21 Oil Sands Employment 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5, In situ Mining Upgrading Source: Petroleum Human Resources Council Slide 21 5 February 2013
22 Peter Lougheed on Oil Sands Development : It s out of control, and we re all going to pay a price for it Speaking at University of Alberta, March 7, 2007 Slide 22 5 February 2013
23 Economic Rent Price Per unit Market Price Projects with high economic rent Projects with low economic rent Non-viable Projects - supply cost exceeds market price Economic Rent Supply Curve - sum of all plays, all with different costs Difference between Market Price and Supply Cost Return on Investment Supply Cost Operating Costs - life cycle economics of Development Cost individual Exploration Cost play Quantity of Supply Slide 23 5 February 2013
24 Oil Sands Equities vs Price per Bbl $400 $320 $240 $160 $80 $0 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 Oil Sands ETF Linear (Oil Sands ETF) WCS Linear (WCS) Source: ishares.com, Company Postings Slide 24 5 February 2013
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