9 M R e s u l t s. November 30, 2016

Transcription

1 9 M R e s u l t s November 30, 2016

2 Table of Contents Pages I. Macroeconomic Update 3 II. 9M 16 Performance Highlights 7 III. 9M 16 Performance Balance Sheet Pre Provision Income Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 35 IV. Appendix 37 This presentation contains forward-looking statements, which include comments with respect to our objectives and strategies, and the results of our operations and our business, considering environment and risk conditions. However, by their nature, these forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, uncertainties and opportunities, both general and specific. The risk exists that these statements may not be fulfilled. We caution readers of this presentation not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements as a number of factors could cause future Group results to differ materially from these targets. Forward-looking statements may be influenced in particular by factors such as fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates and stock indices, the effects of competition in the areas in which we operate, and changes in economic, political, regulatory and technological conditions. We caution that the foregoing list is not exhaustive. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions, investors should carefully consider the aforementioned factors as well as other uncertainties and events. FY 9M Results 2

3 I. Macroeconomic Update 9M 2016 Results 3

4 I Embarking On A Recovery Road Economic performance better than expected (GDP growth) Economic Growth: Employment and Productivity (% yearly changes) 3% 2% 1% 4 2 GDP Forecasts 2.7% 3.1% 0% -1% -2% % -4% -5% -6% % qoq change % yoy change I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III employment productivity (per person) productivity (per hour worked) Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV Ι ΙΙ ΙΙΙ ΙV f 2018f Source: ELSTAT Source: ELSTAT, European Commission Forecasts (Autumn 2016) Investment and Depreciation e 2017f 2018f Gross Investment Depreciation Net Investment Source: ELSTAT Positive GDP growth rate by 1.8% y-o-y in Q confirms that the economy is resuming growth in the second half of 2016 Reforms that have contributed to competitiveness improvement, in terms of unit labour cost, have led to a gradual decrease in unemployment, albeit mainly to surging part-time employment From 2017 onwards, the recovery is about to shift into a higher gear recording a more than 2% GDP growth. The projected recovery is contingent on investment pick-up, mainly equipment and construction excluding residential, also supported by ongoing structural reforms and privatisations. Private consumption and tourism are expected to underpin growth though to a lesser extent than investment The prompt conclusion of the second review is a necessary condition for (i) the activation of the short-tem measures along with the specification and quantification of the foreseen medium term debt relief measures that will be implemented in 2018, (ii) the inclusion of Greek government bonds in ECB s QE programme, (iii) the lift of capital controls, (iv) the access to the markets in 2017 and (v) more fiscal space from 2018 onwards FY 9M Results 4

5 I Signs Of Confidence restoration Hard and soft data confirm consumption weakness Spread of GGBs (vs German) Average of Capital Controls imposition Delays in The completion of the review Completion of first review/ disbursement Release of Disbursement and cabinet reshuffling Source: ELSTAT, IOBE Turnover in Retail Trade, 6month moving avg. Business Confidence in Retail Trade Consumer Confidence Indicator, rhs Source: Bloomberg Business Expectations in Industry Business Confidence in Industry, lhs Capacity Utilization in Manufacturing, rhs % Improvement of confidence indicators, employment gains, manufacturing production and good export performance (excluding oil) are all consistent with a further stabilisation in the economy towards the end of the year Average of Average of I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III I III Another indication showing that investor sentiment is gradually turning positive is the decline of the 10-year Greek government bonds spread in the aftermath of cabinet reshuffling reflecting market expectations that the government is determined to speed up the negotiations for the second review Source: European Commission, IOBE FY 9M Results 5

6 I Fiscal Discipline along with fresh labour reforms Primary GG Balance Revenues Primary Expenditure (% of GDP) General Government Arrears 50 5 ( million, cumulative) 12,000 2% e 2017f 2018f GG Revenues GG Primary Expenditure GG Primary Budget, rhs * Excluding the support to the financial institutions Source: ELSTAT, EC Forecasts Autumn 2016 Part-Time Hirings Up, Full-Employment Down 10, , ,000 1,311 1,099 1,287 1,439 8, ,000 7, ,594 5,909 2,000 4,251 4,687 4,779 3, Mar. Jun. Sep Tax Refunds Arrears Government Arrears, lhs GDP, % yearly change, rhs Source: ELSTAT, Min.Fin. 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% 30% 25% 20% 15% Unemployment rate, lhs 10% Part-time employment (% of total employment), rhs 5% I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II Source: ELSTAT 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Regarding the fiscal sector, an over-performance of 2016 primary surplus due to higher revenue collection as a result of tax rate hikes and intensified tax collection efforts is expected to have a positive carry-over effect into 2017 Budget While the economic data suggests that the recovery is becoming more entrenched, the strengthening of the economy remains conditional on the lift of uncertainty that enables a more favorable investment environment. This development depends on the swift conclusion of the second review which is expected to unlock 6.1bn, also allowing further repayment of arrears that will in turn help alleviate liquidity constraints and support further investor confidence Labour market reforms (mainly related to collective bargaining, minimum wage and collective dismissals) are a key item in the agenda of the second review, improving labour legislation and allowing more flexibility for businesses. This review also includes issues such as the NPLs resolution (out-of-court settlements), the assessment of the privatisation programmes, the estimation of fiscal gaps for 2017 and 2018 as well as proposals to close the gap FY 9M Results 6

7 II. 9M 16 Performance Highlights 9M 2016 Results 7

8 II Profitable 9M 16 on the back of improving operating performance and reduced cost of risk; 9M 16 Profit after Tax at 22mn Profit & Loss ( million) 9M M 2015 yoy% change Q Q qoq % change Balance Sheet 30/9/ /6/ /3/ /12/2015 Net Interest Income (NII) 1,454 1, % % Fees and commissions % % Operating Income 1 1,807 1, % (6.3%) Operating Expenses 2 (841) (852) (1.3%) (287) (280) 2.6% Core Pre Provision Income % % Pre Provision Income (PPI) % (9.9%) Impairment Losses (862) (2,357) (63.4%) (257) (350) (26.5%) Assets Net Loans Deposits Eurosystem Funding Tangible Equity (TE) Common Equity Tier 1 ratio (CET1) 16.8% 16.6% 16.3% 16.6% NPL ratio 38.3% 37.8% 37.4% 36.8% Cash Coverage 68% 69% 70% 69% Total Coverage 124% 124% 126% 126% NPE ratio 53.2% 52.6% 52.1% 51.3% Cash Coverage 49% 49% 50% 50% Total Coverage 106% 107% 108% 108% o/w AQR related (1,206) Profit/ (Loss) before income tax (PBT) 54 (1,471) 50 (9) Core PPI resilient at 299mn in Q3 16, supported by improved NII and Fees and commissions. NIM improves to 2.9% in Q3 16 Profit/ (Loss) after income tax 22 (839) 41 (17) Net Interest Margin (NIM) 2.9% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% Cost to Income ratio 1,3 48.4% 49.7% 49.0% 48.3% Recurring OPEX at 287mn in line with target set of 1.15bn for FY Cost to income ratio at 48.4% for 9M 16 Eurosystem funding further reduced to 20.8bn driven by deposits inflow and EFSF bonds disposals NPLs at 38.3%. High cash coverage of 68% LLPs at 257mn in Q3, with Cost of Risk at 1.68% 1 Includes 71.9mn related to the acquisition of Visa Europe from VISA Inc. in Q Excluding integration & extraordinary costs 3 Excluding income from financial operations and integration & extraordinary costs 4 NIM = Net Interest Income / Total Average Assets 5 Tangible Equity = Total equity goodwill intangibles minorities hybrids preference shares CET1 ratio increased to 16.8%, up by 20bps qoq driven mainly by reduction in credit risk. Tangible Equity at 8.5bn FY 9M Results 8

9 II Common Equity Tier I Ratio increased further to16.8%; Fully Loaded ratio at 16.4% Clean Capital Base without Prefs or Cocos CET1 ratio build up impacted by decrease of Credit RWAs and a profitable quarter ( million) Lowest DTC levels in CET1 (excl. Prefs and Cocos) CET1 capital 8,522 8,560 8,361 DTC/CET1 40% 71% 57% 72% 16.6% 8 bps 14bps 16.8% 16.4% (1bps) No Prefs or Cocos CET 1 Jun-16 Period Result AFS Reserve RWA impact / Other CET 1 Sep-16 Fully loaded CET1 Alpha Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 DTC ( ) CET1 ( ) Group Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) development Highest Tangible Equity over Tangible Assets among Greek peers (TE 1 ) 77% RWAs / Assets % over tangible assets 13.0% 8.0% 9.2% 8.5% (0.5) (0.0) 3.9 Market Risk Operational Risk Credit Risk 5.4 Jun-16 Credit Risk Market Risk Sep-16 Alpha Peer1 Peer2 Peer3 1 Tangible Equity = Total equity goodwill intangibles minorities hybrids preference shares Note: All peers are as of 30/09/16. Peers excluding State Cocos, preference shares (where appropriate) FY 9M Results 9

10 II Potential inclusion of GGBs in QE may have a direct positive impact on our capital position GGBs Book Value evolution since September 2016 Marked at par GGB strip yield convergence under way (mid YTM %) Marked at 70% Below 4%, GGBs reach nominal value, with a benefit of 0.7bn Sep-16 Nov-16 Potential 4% Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov Portugal 10Υ Book Nominal EFSF Bonds position declining (Face Value) End of September 2016 GGBs had a Book Value of 1.9bn versus 2.6bn Nominal Value - 1.4bn Potential inclusion of the GGBs in the QE programme could result in significant yield tightening towards the current Portuguese levels, suggesting a M-t-m uplift in the AFS portfolio with a direct positive impact in our capital position 100bps decrease in GGB yields has a c. 140m positive effect in comprehensive income pre-tax Dec-15 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Gains of 30 million YtD from the sale of EFSF notes of face value 1.4 billion, through the ECB s Public Sector Asset Purchase Program (PSPP) FY 9M Results 10

11 II Steady deposits inflow improves funding profile Group Deposits evolution Abroad YtD + 1.0bn Group deposits increased by 0.3bn qoq, o/w 0.2bn from Greece and 0.1bn from international operations In Greece deposit inflows trend continued in Q4 with a further 0.4bn increase mainly supported by businesses Greece Group s funding profile shifting to more sustainable mix as deposits increase Eurosystem funding over Assets reduced significantly to 29% Dec -15 Jun-16 Greece Abroad Sep-16 Greece Abroad Nov-16 Decrease in LTD ratio by 16pp since September 2015 Funding profile on a restoration path away from the Central Banks facilities Loan to Deposit Ratio gradually normalises 44% 45% 45% 47% 48% 49% 154% (16pp) 39% 35% 35% 34% 31% 29% 152% 147% 146% 148% 147% 144% 144% 141% 140% 139% 138% Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Depos/Assets Eurosystem funding/assets Group Greece FY 9M Results 11

12 II Eurosystem reliance down by c. 6bn or -23% since Sep 15; Additional reduction of ELA to be achieved by further diversifying funding sources Eurosystem funding YoY reduction Eurosystem funding QoQ reduction 27.1 Non-repo sources Cash Buffer 22.2 (1.6) (0.9) (1.3) (1.5) (1.0) (0.3) (0.5) (0.8) (0.3) o/w 2.6 EFSF bonds Sep-15 Capital Increase Deposits Inflows Securities Disposal Other B/S items Interbank Repo Sep-16 Jun-16 Deposits Inflows Securities Disposal Other B/S items Interbank Repo Sep-16 Nov-16 ECB ELA ECB ELA Eurosystem collateral pool (cash values) Cash Buffer Eurosystem reliance at 19.4bn as of November 2016 since September 2015 and by more than 3bn since June Eurosystem reliance decrease on the back of deposit inflows and bonds disposal Pillar II Securitisations Bonds Loans EFSF Bonds ELA ELA ECB ECB Jun 16 Sep-16 Nov-16 ELA 17.6 ECB 5.2 Replacement of ELA funding, apart from banking book evolution, will be driven by certain refinancing initiatives with the restoration of market conditions Covered bonds Securitisations Interbank repo Senior bond issuance FY 9M Results 12

13 II NPE operational targets submitted to SSM, incorporate a 48% reduction in NPLs and 36% in NPEs by the end of 2019 NPE Reduction plan Targets - December 2019E Framework Greece ( bn) Q Target Dec 2019E Δ % NPE % NPL % Operational targets submitted to SSM on a Solo perimeter for NPLs and NPEs, including implementation plan Planning horizon Q YE 2019 Quarterly targets for 2016 and 2017, annually thereafter Granular targeting framework built on a series of key performance indicators (KPIs) that will monitor both results but also activity External factors Levers The plan assumes: The plan envisions the Bank to carry out workout activity: a macro recovery that will benefit the effectiveness of the workout activity full implementation of judicial and regulatory reforms that will enable implementation of all aspects of the plan Restructurings Liquidations Sales and make use of write-offs FY 9M Results 13

14 Consumer Credit Mortgages Business II NPL formation declines to 77mn in Q3 16; Group NPL formation NPL formation by segment - Group ( million) NPL 38.3% 77 ( million) Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 NPL Cash Coverage % Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' % Group NPL ratio at 38.3% NPL formation stemming from business loans, contained in a small number of cases Households 9M 16 formation - 61m Households NPLs trajectory suggest peak in % (55) (18) (66) Note: Write-offs in Q3 16 stood at 262mn FY 9M Results 14

15 II 9M 2016 NPE formation in Greece 71% lower y-o-y Group NPE formation Non Performing Exposures (NPEs) formation-greece ( million) NPE 53.2% EBA FNPLs 9.2 EBA NPLs (0.5) 14.9 (0.2) 14.7 Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' NPEs Greece 30/6/16 Provisions Stock in Greece 30/6/16 Net NPEs 30/6/16 Entries Exits NPEs 30/9/16 (preimpairment) Impairment Q3 16 Net NPEs 30/9/16 NPE Restructuring effort - Greece NPE formation YoY - Greece NPE formation in Greece down by -71% y-o-y 2x Entries of 0.8bn include new formation and redefaults; Exits of 0.5bn due to curings, repayments and liquidations % Restructuring efforts more than doubled year-on-year 9M' 15 9M' M' 15 9M' 16 Shift towards long term restructurings to increase curings 2017 a year of negative NPE formation FY 9M Results 15

16 II Cost of Risk declines by 24% yoy; Strong Cash Coverage at 68% for NPLs and 49% for NPEs Group CoR down by 1/4 yoy Strong Group NPL and NPE Coverage ( million) 124% 126% 126% 124% 124% NPL Total Coverage CoR, bps % 108% 108% 107% 106% NPE Total Coverage (24%) 1,206 67% 69% 70% 69% 68% % 50% 50% 49% 49% , M 15 9M 16 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Impairment Charge AQR Impact NPL Cash coverage NPE Cash coverage 1 Excluding Asset Quality Review (AQR) FY 9M Results 16

17 II Solid core PPI performance in line to reach the target of 1.2bn for the FY16 Core PPI 1 resilient driven by counterbalancing effects 9M PPI run rate for the FY 16 at 1.2bn ( million) ( million) 341 (42) (6) (2) 307 1, , bn (841) Q2' 16 Reported PPI Trading and oneoff costs Q2' 16 Core PPI Δ NII Δ Fees Δ OPEX & other income Q3' 16 Core PPI Trading Οne-off costs Q3' 16 Reported PPI Core Income 9M' 16 Recurring Expenses 9M' 16 Core PPI 9M' 16 Annualised 9M' 16 Core PPI Trading and other one-offs as of 9M' 16 Run rate FY' 16 PPI Net Interest Margin (NIM) remains strong 2.92% 2.85% 2.78% 2.80% 2.81% 2.27% 1.66% 1.65% 1.68% 1.41% Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 NIM CoR excl. AQR 1 Excluding income from financial operations and integration & extraordinary costs 3.50% 3.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.00% 9M 16 Core PPI up by 4.2% yoy to 896mn, on the back of improving NIM and further cost efficiencies Annualised pro-forma 9M 16 Core PPI points out for a Full Year PPI of 1.2bn PPI / Gross Loans ratio of 1.96% above the breakeven level suggested by CoR of 1.68% NIM increased at 2.92% in Q3 16 vs. 2.85% in the previous quarter Cost of Risk (CoR) de-escalated to 168bps in Q3 16 FY 9M Results 17

18 II Resilient NII supported by continuous decrease in cost of funding Lower funding cost and calendar effect improve NII Decreasing funding cost both in Eurosystem and time deposits ( million) (10) (1) (5) 1.67% 1.67% 1.23% 1.59% 1.48% 1.29% 1.07% 0.93% 0.82% 0.81% 0.71% Q2' 16 NII Loans Deposits Funding Bonds & other Q3' 16 p.f. NII Calendar Effect Q3' 16 NII Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 Oct-16 New time depos rates Funding cost incl. Pillar II fees ELA funding substitution to benefit NII Alpha Bank will continue to benefit going forward from the replacement of ELA due to: Pillar II reduction benefit not yet fully realised Balance reduction and Replacement of funding cost of150bps through: Utilising its interbank repo lines % % 5.2 All in cost 1 Inflow of time deposits Inflow of core deposits Securitisation issuance funded by EU structural funds Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Nominal Value Cash Value Fee of 115bps paid on Nominal Value to the State, expensed in NII 1 All in cost is calculated as the sum of the funding cost from ELA and the fee expense on the nominal amount over cash value withdrawn FY 9M Results 18

19 II Fee generation supported by improved performance of our card business Net Fees & Commission Income Income from Cards and Acquiring ( million) 5% ( million) Investment Banking & Brokerage 42 23% 51 Asset Gathering Commercial Banking 9M' 15 9M' 16 9M' 15 9M' 16 Credit and Debit Cards Turnover and Merchant Sales Turnover Merchant Acquiring Sales Fee & Commission Income up by 5% yoy on the back of increased card usage for retail transactions and a pick-up of commissions from foreign exchange transactions Debit card turnover more than doubled in 9M 16 vs. a year ago % Total 36% 64% % 2x % 48% 45% 55% % 14% 78% % 66% Alpha Bank sole Issuer in Greece of Amex & Diners Cards Alpha is the only Bank accepting cards from all the major Payment Schemes (Visa, MasterCard, Amex, Diners, China Union Pay) Upon normalisation of the economic conditions, fee generation from Loans and Asset Management to further contribute to the Net Fees & Commission Income 9M' 15 9M' 16 Credit Debit 9M' 15 9M' 16 Greek cards International cards FY 9M Results 19

20 II OPEX on track to reach the 1.15bn target for the FY 16; Best in class C/I ratio Total Operating Expenses (OPEX) up q-o-q on the back of G&A seasonality Total Operating Expenses (OPEX) on track to reach target ( million) + 7mn ( million) +2.6% (1.3%) 1, (15) 280 (1.4) Affected by seasonality due to real estate related taxes and remedial management initiatives Reported Expenses Q2'16 One-offs Core Expenses Q2'16 1 Δ Staff Δ G&As Δ Depreciation Core Expenses Q3'16 1 One-offs Reported Expenses Q3'16 9M' 15 9M' 16 FY 16 Target Operating efficiency evolution 1,2 9M 16 Cost to Income ratio vs. peers 1,2 65% 57% 54% 51% 48% 48% 53% 53% Average M' 16 Alpha Peer 1 Peer 2 Peer 3 1 Excluding integration & extraordinary costs 2 Excluding income from financial operations FY 9M Results 20

21 II SEE rationalisation results in profitability turnaround Romania Alpha SEE Network Sep-13 Sep-16 Countries of Presence 7 4 Branches Employees 5,843 3,758 Net Loans (in bn) Serbia Entry: Acquisition (2) 2002 Branches: 67 Employees: 864 Net Loans (in bn): 0.5 Deposits (in bn): 0.4 Loan Market Share: 3.7% Core PBT (in mn): 6.9 Ukraine Entry: Greenfield 1994 Branches: 130 Employees: 1,830 Net Loans (in bn): 2.4 Deposits (in bn): 1.6 Loan Market Share: 5.5% Core PBT (in mn): 17.8 Deposits (in bn) NII (in mn) Operating Income (in mn) OPEX 1 (in mn) (188.9) (140.8) Impairment (in mn) (206.6) (121.9) Core PBT 1 (in mn) (85.8) 14.5 Albania Entry: Greenfield 1998 Branches: 35 Employees: 416 Net Loans (in bn): 0.3 Deposits (in bn): 0.4 Loan Market Share: 8.2% Core PBT (in mn): (2.7) FYROM Bulgaria Cyprus Entry: Acquisition (3) 1998 Branches: 22 Employees: 648 Net Loans (in bn): 3.4 Deposits (in bn): 1.9 Loan Market Share: 5.2% Core PBT (in mn): (7.6) 1 1 Excludes VSS Cyprus and overhead allocation costs 2 In 2005 acquired Jubanka. Alpha established its presence in Serbia in In 1998 acquired Lombard Natwest Bank. Includes Emporiki Bank Cyprus. FY 9M Results 21

22 III. 9M 16 Performance 1. Balance Sheet 9M 2016 Results 22

23 III Balance Sheet composition Asset split Liabilities and equity split Cash Securities Cash Securities ELA 15.3 ELA EFSF bonds 3.7 EFSF bonds ECB 5.5 ECB Net loans 45.5 Net loans Time deposits Time deposits 18.2 Core deposits 18.1 Core deposits PPE DTA PPE DTA Debt securities Equity Debt securities Equity Other 5.8 Other Other 4.1 Other Jun-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 FY 9M Results P&L Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 23

24 III-2. Pre Provision Income 9M 2016 Results 24

25 III Resilient core PPI; NII supported by reduced cost of funding Core PPI breakdown 1, 2 ( million) Negative contribution of loans to NII counterbalanced mainly by wholesale funding ( million) Bonds & other Loans Funding (51) (47) (50) (49) (51) (119) (110) (91) (85) (71) Depos Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 Central Bank funding balances & cost continue to decline (290) (316) (275) (280) (287) 1.67% 1.67% 1.59% 1.48% 1.29% Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' Operating Income Operating Expenses PPI 1 Excluding income from financial operations and VISA gain 2 Excluding integration & extraordinary costs Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 ECB ELA Funding Cost incl. Pillar II fees FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 25

26 III Loan and deposit spreads Reduced net loan balances with declining spreads (bps) Deposit mix & cost evolution (bps) (63) (61) (67) (67) (66) % Total % End of quarter balances Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 End of quarter balances Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 57% Core deposits Time deposits Net Loans Group loans spread Group deposits spread Lending spreads Deposit spreads (bps) (bps) Consumer Credit - Greece Small Business Loans - Greece SEE Medium & Large Business - Greece Mortgages - Greece (9) (14) (25) (31) (34) (109) (108) (105) (100) (118) (112) (106) (127) (122) (140) Sight and Savings - Greece SE Europe Time Deposits - Greece Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 Q3' 15 Q4' 15 Q1' 16 Q2' 16 Q3' 16 FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 26

27 III Operating expenses million 9M 16 9M 15 yoy % OPEX Evolution 1 Staff costs (3.2%) ( million) General expenses % Depreciation and amortisation expenses (4.6%) Total Recurring (1.3%) Depreciation & amortisation expenses General expenses Integration costs 2 6 Extraordinary / one-off costs Operating Expenses % Q3'15 Q4'15 Q1'16 Q2'16 Q3'16 1 Excluding integration & extraordinary costs Staff costs Employees Branches Citi ,404 VSS Gr -2,208 15,202 15,149 Bulg -744 FYROM -240 VSS Cy ,371 14,210 13,856 13,695 13,569 13,481 Citi +20 1,044 1,032 1,024 Bulg -83 FYROM Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 o/w Gr 11,781 9,570 9,625 9,680 9,687 9,687 9,679 9,670 9,653 o/w Gr FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 27

28 III-3. Asset Quality 9M 2016 Results 28

29 Consumer Credit Mortgages Business III Coverage of Group non performing loans 54% 132% Evolution of coverage for the Group 75% 79% 79% 79% 78% 55% 124% 67% 69% 70% 69% 68% Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Collateral Coverage Total NPL Coverage Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Collateral Coverage Total NPL Coverage 69% 114% Total coverage at 124% 46% 47% 47% 45% 45% 60.8 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Collateral Coverage 80% 80% 80% 81% 82% 29% Total NPL Coverage 111% Abroad 9.4 NPL ratio Greece % 38.2% 38.3% Cash coverage 68% 69% 68% Gross Loans NPLs Provisions stock 124% 55% 68% NPL Coverage Collateral Cash Cash coverage for the Group at 68% or 124% including collateral coverage of 55% Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Collateral Coverage Total NPL Coverage Total coverage in all segments is well above the 100% mark FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 29

30 IΙI Non-performing exposures (NPEs) also include performing forborne loans NPE perimeter includes NPLs and performing restructured loans NPL Ratio NPL Coverage NPE Ratio NPE Coverage 38% 68% 53% 49% 60.8 ECB methodology separates the 90 days past due, IFRS non- Provisions Net loans (23.3) 37.5 (7.1) (2.0) 28.4 performing loans from non-performing exposures (NPE) The difference between IFRS NPLs and NPEs comes from two areas: 1 Forborne non performing loans (FNPLs) that are loans currently below 90dpd, but under full EBA definitions must be considered Gross loans IFRS NPLs (90 dpd) Performing loans 1 FNPLs 2 <90dpd Individually impaired¹ NPE adjustment Performing exposures as non performing for at least 12 months after the forbearance measures have been applied Group Net NPEs evolution 2 Loans which are either individually impaired or unlikely to pay and are currently below 90dpd, but under full EBA definitions are considered as non performing exposures (NPEs) EBA Net FNPL EBA Net NPLs Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 1 Including Unlikely to Pay FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 30

31 IIΙ Detailed overview of Alpha Bank s asset quality by portfolio - Group Wholesale SBL Mortgages Consumer Total Gross loans (-) Provisions (7.0) (3.1) (3.2) (2.7) (16.0) Net loans NPLs NPL ratio 30.1% 75.2% 34.8% 42.9% 38.3% NPEs NPE ratio 48.3% 85.5% 46.0% 61.1% 53.2% NPL collateral NPE collateral Coverage ratio Total Collateral Cash 147% 58% 89% 116% 110% 104% 114% 105% 111% 60% 49% 51% 69% 29% 71% 56% 60% 53% 45% 82% 34% 124% 83% 55% 25% 58% 68% 106% 57% 49% NPL NPE NPL NPE NPL NPE NPL NPE NPL NPE NPLs (+) Forborne NPLs < 90 dpds (+) Individually impaired NPEs Forborne NPLs >90dpd Forborne NPLs <90dpd Performing forborne Total forborne Including unlikely to pay FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 31

32 III NPL Workout Units Analysis Loans perimeter managed by NPL Units NPL Workout Units balances breakdown by segment Performing NPLs Total Loans Greece Non-NPL Management Units Retail NPL Management Unit WHL NPL Management Unit Performing NPLs Retail 18.8bn Wholesale 8.5bn Mortgages Consumer SBLs SMEs Corporates Total Retail NPL Unit manages all retail exposures which are >1dpd and total 18.8bn In retail c. 2,550 FTEs broken down in WHL NPL Unit manages 8.5bn, out of which 3.0bn are performing loans 1 In wholesale c.114 FTEs broken down in (legal outsourcing excluded): c.550 in Retail NPL Unit Management & Monitoring: 20 FTEs c.400 in branches Workout: 34 FTEs c.1,600 in collection and legal firms Permanent arrears: 60 FTEs 1 Including leasing, factoring and International Unit Greece FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 32

33 III-4. Liquidity 9M 2016 Results 33

34 III Deposits flow for the quarter in line with system Alpha Bank deposits evolution in Greece Deposits breakdown September 2016 Q4: 0.7bn Q1: ( 0.5bn) Q2: 0.5bn Q3: 0.2bn Time 39% (0.5) 0.3 (0.2) (0.8) (0.0) Δ Time Core 61% Δ Core Sep-15 Core Time Dec-15 Core Time Mar-16 Core Time Jun-16 Core Time Sep-16 Alpha Bank deposits evolution in Greece Deposits breakdown September Business 24% (0.4) (0.1) Δ Individuals Δ Business Individuals 76% Sep-15 Bus. Indiv. Dec-15 Bus. Indiv. Mar-16 Bus. Indiv. Jun-16 Bus. Indiv. Sep-16 FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 34

35 III-5. Capital 9M 2016 Results 35

36 III Common Equity Tier I Ratio of 16.8%; Fully Loaded ratio at 16.4% CET1 ratio build up impacted by decrease of Credit RWAs and a profitable quarter ( million) CET1 capital 8,522 8,560 8, % 8 bps 14bps 16.8% 16.4% (1bps) CET 1 Jun-16 Period Result AFS Reserve RWA impact / Other CET 1 Sep-16 CET 1 Fully loaded Sep-16 DTA/TC impact 3.4bn TC 0.2bn Tax Losses Phased-in Fully loaded CET1 ( bn) 0.6bn Other DTA bn TC 0.6bn Other DTA RWAs 1 ( bn) 1.4bn DTA bn TC Group Risk Weighted Assets (RWAs) development Equity to regulatory capital bridge ( million) 77% RWAs/ Assets (0.5) (0.0) Market Risk Operational Risk Credit Risk 16.8% 16.9% 8,907 8, , ,594 (371) Jun-16 Credit Risk Market Risk Sep-16 Ordinary Equity Intangibles Tangible book value Regulatory CET1 Adjustments capital = Tier I capital Lower Tier II Total Regulatory Capital 1 Risk weighting is100% for the TC and 250% for the Other DTA FY 9M Results Balance Sheet P&L Asset Quality Liquidity Capital 36

37 IV. Appendix 9M 2016 Results 37

38 IV Business Volumes ( million) Sep 2016 Jun 2016 Mar 2016 Dec 2015 Sep 2015 % Sep 2016 / Sep 2015 Group Gross Loans 60,821 61,418 61,895 62,015 62,133 (2.1%) Mortgages 20,480 20,541 20,794 20,840 20,859 (1.8%) Consumer Loans 5,876 5,858 5,848 5,872 5, % Credit Cards 1 1,637 1,593 1,409 1,425 1, % Small Business Loans 6,781 6,788 6,792 6,726 6, % Medium and Large Business Loans 1 26,047 26,637 27,052 27,151 27,327 (4.7%) of which: Greece 51,440 51,975 52,261 52,472 52,450 (1.9%) Mortgages 16,769 16,834 17,102 17,150 17,189 (2.4%) Consumer Loans 5,205 5,197 5,161 5,184 5, % Credit Cards 1 1,587 1,543 1,359 1,373 1, % Small Business Loans 6,710 6,712 6,715 6,656 6, % Medium and Large Business Loans 1 21,169 21,689 21,924 22,109 22,157 (4.5%) of which: Shipping Loans 1,914 1,938 1,858 1,910 2,006 (4.6%) Southeastern Europe 9,082 9,123 9,238 9,164 9,369 (3.1%) Allowance for Impairment Losses (15,951) (15,922) (16,069) (15,829) (15,172) 5.1% Group Net Loans 44,870 45,496 45,826 46,186 46,961 (4.5%) Customer Assets 37,498 37,254 36,643 37,097 36, % of which: Group Deposits 31,970 31,667 30,963 31,434 30, % Sight & Savings 18,148 18,155 17,456 18,313 17, % Time deposits & Alpha Bank Bonds 13,821 13,512 13,507 13,122 13, % Greece 26,877 26,659 26,204 26,744 26, % Sight & Savings 16,444 16,483 15,823 16,640 15, % Time deposits & Alpha Bank Bonds 10,433 10,177 10,381 10,103 10,582 (1.4%) Southeastern Europe 4,294 4,213 3,956 3,866 3, % Money Market Mutual Funds (20.3%) Other Mutual Funds 1,224 1,225 1,221 1,176 1,305 (6.2%) Private Banking 3,641 3,623 3,685 3,686 3, % 1 Reclassification of 193mn in Q2 16 from Medium & Large Business Loans to Credit Cards FY 9M Results 38

39 IV Diversified business book and shipping portfolio Group loans breakdown (9M 16 data) Wholesale loans portfolio structure Group Other 11% Mortgages 34% 60.8bn Wholesale loans 43% Services 7% Real Estate 7% 26.0bn Industry 23% Credit Cards 3% Consumer loans 9% SBLs 11% Shipping 8% Tourism 7% Transportation 1% Construction 16% Trade 21% Shipping loans portfolio structure Dry Bulk 43% Panamax 14% Handy max/ Handy size 20% Capesize 9% 1.9bn Passenger 8% Containers 9% Product Tankers 14% Panamax 8% Suezmax 10% Tankers 40% 1.9bn of exposure, to top-names The portfolio is split into tankers by 40%, containers 9%, passenger 8% and the rest is dry bulk Duration of loan portfolio at 5 years NPL ratio at 9% VLCC 8% FY 9M Results 39

40 IV Wealth Management evolution Alpha Private Bank balance increased with Citi acquisition ( million) Asset Management impacted by the adverse operating environment ( million) 4,242 3,932 3,580 1,759 1,824 2, ,145 1,345 1,065 1, ,338 1,333 1, Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep Sep-14 Sep-15 Sep-16 Discretionary Advisory Execution Only Other AUM Non Money Market Mututal Funds Money Market Mutual Funds FY 9M Results 40

41 IV SEE Operations ( million) Cyprus Δ% Romania Δ% Serbia Δ% Albania Δ% TOTAL Δ% Sep-16 yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy Deposits 1, % 1, % 386 (2.5%) % 4, % Gross Loans 5, % 2,800 (4.4%) 645 (12.5%) 363 (1.4%) 9,082 (3.1%) Mortgages 2,447 (0.4%) 1, % 181 (1.3%) % 3, % Consumer Credit 278 (0.4%) 251 (9.8%) 108 (6.8%) % 659 (7.7%) Businesses 2, % 1,547 (10.2%) 356 (18.6%) 272 (3.5%) 4,724 (5.5%) NPL ratio 55.5% 14.6% 24.6% 17.4% Cash coverage 65% 98% 70% 46% Total coverage 115% 158% 118% 128% Operating Income % % 30.5 (21.9%) 15.5 (9.6%) % Operating Expenses (pre-o/h allocation) 1 (38.8) (6.3%) (67.9) 0.6% (23.4) (11.6%) (10.7) 5.4% (140.8) (3.3%) Impairment Losses (88.8) (38.6%) (25.4) (15.7%) (0.1) (95.6%) (7.5) 35.6% (121.9) (33.5%) Profit Before Tax (pre- O/H allocation) 1 (7.6) (28.1%) (2.7) 14.5 Branches (47) Employees 648 1, ,758 (458) 1 Excluding VSS Cyprus of 31mn FY 9M Results 41

42 IV Alpha Bank Group ( million) 9M M 2015 yoy % change Net interest income 1, , % Net fee and commission income % Income from financial operations % Other Income % Operating Income 1, , % Staff costs (384.7) (397.5) (3.2%) General expenses (382.2) (376.6) 1.5% Depreciation and amortization expenses (74.3) (77.9) (4.6%) Operating expenses before integration and extraordinary costs (841.1) (852.0) (1.3%) Integration costs (2.1) (6.4) (66.9%) Extraordinary costs 1 (48.0) (13.0) Operating expenses (891.3) (871.4) 2.3% Impairment losses on credit risk (862.0) (2,357.3) (63.4%) Profit / (Loss) before income tax 53.7 (1,471.1) Income Tax (32.6) Profit/ (Loss) after income tax 21.2 (747.9) Profit / (Loss) after income tax from continuing operations 21.2 (747.9) Profit / (Loss) after income tax from discontinued operations 1.0 (90.5) Profit / (Loss) attributable to shareholders 22.0 (838.6) Net interest income / average assets - MARGIN 2.9% 2.7% 1 Including VSS Cyprus of 31mn in H1 16 FY 9M Results 42

43 IV Alpha Bank Group ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Net interest income Net fee and commission income Income from financial operations (90.1) Other Income Operating Income Staff costs (127.1) (128.4) (129.2) (135.1) (132.5) (131.4) (133.6) General expenses (135.0) (127.6) (118.6) (154.0) (130.7) (127.1) (118.9) Depreciation and amortization expenses (24.8) (23.6) (25.9) (27.1) (26.4) (25.9) (25.6) Operating expenses before integration and extraordinary costs (286.9) (279.7) (274.6) (316.2) (289.5) (284.4) (278.1) Integration costs (0.4) (1.2) (0.5) (2.7) (3.3) (2.0) (1.1) Extraordinary costs 1 (1.2) (13.8) (33.1) (110.3) (24.1) Operating expenses (288.5) (294.7) (308.1) (429.2) (316.9) (277.6) (276.9) Impairment losses on credit risk (257.1) (349.7) (255.1) (662.5) (258.5) (1,672.7) (426.1) Profit / (Loss) before income tax 49.8 (8.9) 12.8 (595.3) 1.1 (1,365.5) (106.8) Income Tax (8.1) (9.5) (14.9) (9.2) Profit/ (Loss) after income tax 41.7 (18.4) (2.1) (511.8) (1,046.9) (116.0) Profit / (Loss) after income tax from continuing operations 41.7 (18.4) (2.1) (511.8) (1,046.9) (116.0) Profit / (Loss) after income tax from discontinued operations (0.6) 1.7 (0.1) (21.3) (1.3) (89.4) 0.1 Profit / (Loss) attributable to shareholders 41.1 (16.8) (2.2) (533.1) (1,136.3) (116.0) Net interest income / average assets - MARGIN 2.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 1 Including VSS Cyprus of 31mn in H1 16 FY 9M Results 43

44 IV Group Results by Business Unit ( million) Retail Commercial & Corporate SE Europe Investment Banking & Treasury Asset Management Jan-Sep Jan-sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Jan-Sep Other Group Operating Income (19.4) (56.4) , ,757.7 Net Interest Income (46.6) (102.9) , ,445.2 Net fee and Commission Income (5.2) Income from Financial Operations (6.6) (7.7) Other Income 0.0 (1.8) (1.9) (1.2) Operating Expenses (493.4) (494.5) (113.8) (108.8) (190.7) (159.5) (21.9) (22.5) (19.9) (23.3) (51.5) (62.8) (891.3) 1 (871.4) Staff Costs (209.7) (218.8) (65.1) (62.3) (106.7) (76.0) (9.7) (9.9) (12.6) (12.8) (15.0) (15.2) (418.8) (395.2) General Expenses (243.9) (235.5) (33.8) (32.4) (74.6) (74.7) (10.7) (10.9) (6.1) (9.0) (29.2) (35.9) (398.2) (398.3) Depreciation (39.9) (40.2) (14.9) (14.1) (9.4) (8.8) (1.6) (1.6) (1.3) (1.6) (7.3) (11.6) (74.3) (77.9) Impairment Losses (330.7) (1,259.5) (409.4) (914.7) (121.9) (183.2) (0.0) (0.0) (862.0) (2,357.3) Profit / (Loss) before tax 19.0 (911.8) (376.4) (35.4) (85.1) (41.3) (78.8) (6.2) (41.8) 53.7 (1,471.1) 1 Including VSS Cyprus of 31mn in H1 16 FY 9M Results 44

45 IV Results I Retail Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations Other Income (1.7) (1.0) (0.3) (0.5) Operating Expenses (167.3) (166.3) (159.9) (175.2) (171.2) (163.2) (160.0) Staff Costs (69.6) (70.6) (69.5) (74.5) (71.3) (72.0) (75.6) General Expenses (84.4) (82.5) (77.0) (86.4) (86.0) (77.9) (71.6) Depreciation (13.4) (13.1) (13.4) (14.3) (14.0) (13.3) (12.8) Impairment losses (164.7) (96.7) (69.3) (68.9) (192.0) (923.5) (144.0) Profit / (Loss) before tax (52.3) (65.0) (799.8) (47.0) RWA e 20,074 19,882 20,104 20,434 20,325 20,415 20,295 FY 9M Results 45

46 IV Results I Commercial & Corporate Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations Other Income Operating Expenses (38.5) (37.9) (37.4) (39.5) (38.0) (35.9) (34.9) Staff Costs (21.8) (21.9) (21.4) (22.8) (21.3) (20.6) (20.5) General Expenses (11.6) (11.1) (11.0) (11.6) (11.8) (10.6) (10.0) Depreciation (5.0) (4.9) (4.9) (5.1) (4.9) (4.7) (4.5) Impairment losses (52.5) (202.9) (153.9) (411.1) (17.5) (666.3) (230.8) Profit / (Loss) before tax (33.1) 20.4 (229.1) (485.5) (57.9) RWA e 18,199 18,459 18,345 17,970 17,980 18,649 18,896 FY 9M Results 46

47 IV Results I Asset Management Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations (0.1) Other Income (0.9) (0.4) (0.5) (0.8) (0.7) (0.3) (0.3) Operating Expenses (6.6) (6.7) (6.6) (7.1) (7.0) (7.6) (8.7) Staff Costs (4.1) (4.2) (4.3) (4.9) (4.5) (4.1) (4.3) General Expenses (2.1) (2.1) (1.9) (1.6) (2.0) (3.0) (4.0) Depreciation (0.4) (0.4) (0.4) (0.6) (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) Impairment losses Profit / (Loss) before tax RWA e FY 9M Results 47

48 IV Results I Investment Banking & Treasury Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income (2.0) 13.6 (30.9) (12.0) (47.9) (19.5) 11.0 Net Interest Income (6.1) (16.8) (23.7) (44.3) (54.5) (38.6) (9.7) Net fee and Commission Income (2.7) (3.4) 0.9 Income from Financial Operations (5.7) Other Income (3.8) 3.2 (0.3) Operating Expenses (7.4) (7.3) (7.2) (8.9) (7.8) (7.9) (6.8) Staff Costs (3.2) (3.3) (3.1) (3.9) (3.3) (3.4) (3.3) General Expenses (3.7) (3.5) (3.5) (4.4) (4.0) (3.7) (3.3) Depreciation (0.5) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.8) (0.3) Impairment losses (2.6) Profit / (Loss) before tax (9.5) 6.3 (38.1) (23.4) (55.7) (27.4) 4.2 RWA e 4,993 5,198 5,350 5,215 5,142 5,197 4,738 FY 9M Results 48

49 IV Results I SE Europe Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income Net Interest Income Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations (1.9) (17.6) Other Income Operating Expenses 1 (51.2) (53.4) (86.1) (61.6) (54.9) (51.8) (52.8) Staff Costs 1 (22.8) (24.4) (59.4) (27.9) (25.8) (25.0) (25.3) General Expenses (25.3) (25.8) (23.6) (30.7) (26.2) (24.0) (24.5) Depreciation (3.0) (3.2) (3.2) (3.1) (2.9) (2.8) (3.0) Impairment losses (39.9) (50.1) (31.9) (178.8) (49.0) (82.9) (51.4) Profit / (Loss) before tax 1 (1.6) (2.1) (31.7) (154.3) (7.3) (44.8) (33.1) RWA e 6,345 6,652 6,888 7,356 7,826 8,116 8,403 1 Including VSS Cyprus of 31mn in H1 16 FY 9M Results 49

50 IV Results I Other Business Unit ( million) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Operating Income (108.7) (3.6) (5.6) 30.1 Net Interest Income (0.2) Net fee and Commission Income Income from Financial Operations (0.1) (119.6) (12.3) (16.1) 20.7 Other Income Operating Expenses (17.5) (23.0) (11.0) (137.0) (37.9) (11.2) (13.6) Staff Costs (7.2) (5.0) (2.7) (68.2) (5.7) (4.9) (4.7) General Expenses (7.8) (16.5) (4.8) (65.3) (28.8) (2.7) (4.4) Depreciation (2.4) (1.4) (3.5) (3.5) (3.4) (3.7) (4.5) Impairment losses (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) (1.2) (0.0) 0.0 (0.0) Profit / (Loss) before tax (6.9) (2.2) 2.9 (246.8) (41.5) (16.8) 16.5 RWA e 1,149 1,126 1,119 1,149 1,146 1,087 1,008 FY 9M Results 50

51 Alpha Bank Contacts Vassilios Psaltis Lazaros Papagaryfallou General Manager CFO Executive General Manager Dimitrios Kostopoulos Elena Katopodi Manager Assistant Manager Investor Relations Division Investor Relations Division Stella Traka Marios-Ioannis Deportou Senior Investor Relations Officer Senior Investor Relations Officer ir@alpha.gr Tel : ALPHA BANK 40, Stadiou Street, Athens, Greece Internet Reuters Bloomberg : : ACBr.AT (shares), GRALFAw.AT (warrants) : ALPHA GA (shares), ALPHAW GA (warrants) FY 9M Results 51