Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG
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- Spencer Sparks
- 6 years ago
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1 Primary Credit Analyst: Michal Selbka, Frankfurt +49 (0) ; Secondary Contact: Anna Lozmann, Frankfurt (49) ; Table Of Contents Major Rating Factors Outlook Rationale Related Criteria AUGUST 1,
2 SACP bbb+ + Support +3 + Additional Factors 0 Anchor Business Position bbb+ Moderate -1 ALAC Support 0 Issuer Credit Rating Capital and Earnings Strong +1 Risk Position Adequate 0 Funding Liquidity Average Adequate 0 GRE Support +3 Group Support 0 Sovereign Support 0 A+/Negative/A-1 Major Rating Factors Strengths: Weaknesses: Strong capitalization. Important role for and very strong link with the State of Upper Austria, the bank's 51% owner. A highly collateralized, low-risk business model. Comparatively low operating profitability, reflecting tight margins in Austria along with the bank's focus on public-sector-related lending and promotion of subsidized housing. Concentrations in the loan portfolio in one region and in public-sector-related activities. Operational dependence on a shareholder, Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberösterreich. Outlook: Negative S&P Global Ratings' negative outlook on Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG (HYPO OÖ) reflects that on Upper Austria and captures the one-in-three likelihood that if Upper Austria is downgraded within the next two years, this would most likely result in a similar rating action on Hypo OÖ. Likewise, we could lower the ratings if we observed a weakening in Hypo OÖ's role for or link with its majority shareholder, a scenario we consider remote, however. We could also lower the ratings if Hypo OÖ took on higher underwriting risks or decreased its operational efficiency and failed to sustain a risk-adjusted capital (RAC) ratio above 10% in the next two years. We would consider revising our outlook to stable if we revise the outlook on Upper Austria to stable and, at the same time, Hypo OÖ displays a sustainable capital cushion and low credit losses. AUGUST 1,
3 Rationale The starting point for the ratings on HYPO OÖ is our 'bbb+' anchor, which represents our view of economic and industry risk for banks in Austria. We assess HYPO OÖ's stand-alone credit profile (SACP) at 'bbb+'. We consider HYPO OÖ's business position to be moderate, mainly because of its concentrated business model. We assess the bank's capital and earnings as strong, while we project the bank's RAC ratio will remain comfortably between 10% and 15% over the next two years, the range that we consider reflects strong capitalization for a bank. Our assessment of HYPO OÖ's risk position as adequate chiefly reflects our view that the bank will continue to focus on low-risk, public-sector-related lending and promotion of social housing. We view funding as average and liquidity as adequate because of the bank's matched funding profile, conservative liquidity management, and implicit benefits from its link with Upper Austria. We continue to consider Hypo OÖ a government-related entity (GRE) with a high likelihood of receiving timely and sufficient extraordinary government support if needed. We base this opinion on Hypo OÖ's important role for, and very important link with, its home state, Upper Austria. As such, we continue to apply a three-notch uplift to our 'bbb+' assessment of Hypo OÖ's SACP, leading to the 'A+' long-term rating. Anchor: 'bbb+' for banks operating only in Austria We use our Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment's economic risk and industry risk scores to determine a bank's anchor, the starting point in assigning an issuer credit rating. Our anchor for a commercial bank operating only in Austria is 'bbb+', based on an economic risk score of '2' and an industry risk score of '4'. In our view, HYPO OÖ's overall economic and industry risk is in line with that for the anchor, since it operates almost exclusively in the domestic market. We don't expect any geographic shift in the bank's exposure mix in the next two years. Our economic risk assessment is based on Austria's highly competitive and diverse economy, with strong economic fundamentals, high integration in Western European economies, strong ties to Eastern and Southeastern Europe, and comparably high domestic foreign currency lending. With regard to industry risk, the Austrian banking industry benefits from a high share of core customer deposits, which limits dependence on external borrowings. However, we expect that the significant overcapacity in the banking system will continue to depress domestic banks' earnings, leading to instability of the banking system. Table 1 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Key Figures (Mil. ) Adjusted assets 8, , , , ,221.2 Customer loans (gross) 5, , , , ,803.9 Adjusted common equity Operating revenues Noninterest expenses AUGUST 1,
4 Table 1 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Key Figures (cont.) (Mil. ) Core earnings Business position: A concentrated but stable business model We consider HYPO OÖ's business position to be moderate. We see the main weakness of HYPO OÖ's business model in its regional focus and concentration on public-sector lending, public-sector-related real estate, and subsidized housing. In our view, the contribution of retail and corporate banking is improving, enhancing the business model's stability. Nevertheless, we expect that HYPO OÖ will continue to rely on public-sector related business in the foreseeable future. HYPO OÖ, a small commercial bank in Upper Austria, reported total assets of 8.8 billion as of Dec. 31, In its home market, the bank enjoys very strong market shares in its main business lines. In the area of subsidized housing, the bank has an exclusive partnership with Upper Austria. In our view, HYPO OÖ's business model benefits from having Upper Austria and Raiffeisenlandesbank Oberösterreich (RLB OÖ) as shareholders (51% and 39%, respectively). Strategic ownership support and HYPO OÖ's cooperation with Upper Austria also imply funding benefits for the bank that are critical for the stability of its business model and which we believe will continue. RLB OÖ provides HYPO OÖ with additional client business and information technology infrastructure, and supports HYPO OÖ via management tools and processes. This provides, in our view, a substantial benefit to the business model's stability, by enabling the bank to lower its administrative costs and maintain far better efficiency than the peer average. Table 2 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Business Position (%) Total revenues from business line (mil. ) Return on equity Capital and earnings:low dividend pay-outs and consistent profitability support strong capitalization We assess the bank's capital and earnings as strong. We expect that the bank's RAC ratio will remain in the range of 10%-15% over the next two years, which we generally regard as commensurate with strong bank capitalization. As of Dec. 31, 2016, the RAC ratio stood at 11.0%. HYPO OÖ operates with tight margins and reports only low returns, but its core operational performance has been relatively stable, also supported by its low-risk profile. The bank's results for 2014, 2015, and 2016 included large one-time items, namely losses and gains related to provisioning for the wind-down entity HETA ASSET RESOLUTION AG, as well as gains in 2015 linked to the buyback of bonds to smooth liquidity before the remaining state-guaranteed AUGUST 1,
5 funding expired. Adjusted for these items, the bank's performance was broadly in line with previous years', and we expect its performance in will remain consistent with previous results at about 15 million- 20 million per year. Low dividend payouts have been a main support to HYPO OÖ's internal capital generation and we expect this trend will continue. In our projections of the bank's capital and earnings over the next two years, we take into account the following assumptions: Marginal shrinkage of the loan portfolio in 2017, followed by stagnation in the following years, partly reflecting the ongoing decrease in less profitable public-sector-related lending. Stable revenues from core lending activities. Very low credit losses at a maximum of 5 million per year over the next two years, reflecting good asset quality, focus on the public sector, and low concentrations in retail and corporate lending. A one-time extraordinary dividend payout of 6 million in 2017 and dividend payouts not exceeding 1 million per year afterward. Our projected earnings buffer for the bank is lower than 1% of risk-weighted assets, indicating a low capacity for earnings to cover normalized losses. But, in our view, the bank's low internal capital generation capability is not a major rating consideration. This is because HYPO OÖ's management is not targeting aggressive growth, and we expect real risk costs will remain well below our normalized loss expectations. Table 3 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Capital And Earnings (%) Tier 1 capital ratio S&P RAC ratio before diversification S&P RAC ratio after diversification Adjusted common equity/total adjusted capital Net interest income/operating revenues Fee income/operating revenues Market-sensitive income/operating revenues (0.4) 8.6 Noninterest expenses/operating revenues Preprovision operating income/average assets Core earnings/average managed assets Table 4 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG RACF [Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework] Data (Mil. ) Exposure* Basel II RWA Average Basel II RW (%) S&P Global Ratings RWA Average S&P Global Ratings RW (%) Credit risk Government and central banks 2, Institutions Corporate 1,008 1, Retail 3,781 1, , AUGUST 1,
6 Table 4 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG RACF [Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework] Data (cont.) Of which mortgage 3,352 1, Securitization Other assets Total credit risk 7,919 2, , Market risk Equity in the banking book ,261 1,058 Trading book market risk Total market risk , Insurance risk Total insurance risk Operational risk Total operational risk (Mil. ) Basel II RWA S&P Global Ratings RWA % of S&P Global Ratings RWA Diversification adjustments RWA before diversification 3,087 3, Total Diversification/Concentration Adjustments -- 2, RWA after diversification 3,087 5, (Mil. ) Tier 1 capital Tier 1 ratio (%) Total adjusted capital S&P Global Ratings RAC ratio (%) Capital ratio Capital ratio before adjustments Capital ratio after adjustments *Exposure at default. Securitisation Exposure includes the securitisation tranches deducted from capital in the regulatory framework. Exposure and S&P Global Ratings risk-weighted assets for equity in the banking book include minority equity holdings in financial institutions. Adjustments to Tier 1 ratio are additional regulatory requirements (e.g. transitional floor or Pillar 2 add-ons). RWA--Risk-weighted assets. RW--Risk weight. RAC--Risk-adjusted capital. Sources: Company data as of Dec. 31, 2016, S&P Global Ratings. Risk position: Consistent risk-averse strategy In our view, HYPO OÖ's risk position is adequate. We base this assessment on our expectation that HYPO OÖ will continue to focus on highly secured small homeowner loans, mortgage loans to public-benefit housing associations with historically very low default risk, and low-risk public-sector loans. We expect any new lending expansion to be only in core business areas and clearly defined products. We regard the bank's concentration in Upper Austria's public-sector-related real estate and housing market as a potential risk through the cycle. But the focus on the public sector mitigates this risk, as does Upper Austria's position as one of the economically strongest states in Austria. In addition, we don't foresee credit-fueled bubbles in the local residential real estate market. The RAC ratio, in our view, correctly reflects HYPO OÖ's main risks. Owing to the collateralized nature of the bank's lending and the comparably high quality of its primarily public-sector-related clients, we expect HYPO OÖ will be able AUGUST 1,
7 to report lower loan losses than the normalized losses we anticipate for comparable portfolios over the cycle. The ratio of nonperforming loans to total loans has been consistently low and comparably stable, reflecting the bank's business focus on public-sector and retail mortgages. For HYPO OÖ, the ratio was only 0.5% at year-end 2016 following the resolution of the HETA dispute, which is much below that of its Austrian peers. In 2015, including HETA, the ratio stood at 1.7% and was still markedly lower than the peer average. Overall coverage of gross nonperforming assets (before collateral) by provisions increased to 41% in 2016 from 30% in 2015, reflecting the HETA impact. This coverage ratio is weaker than the peer average internationally, but highly collateralized nature of HYPO OÖ's lending mitigates the risks. Table 5 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Risk Position (%) Growth in customer loans (5.6) (1.7) 4.0 Total diversification adjustment / S&P RWA before diversification Total managed assets/adjusted common equity (x) New loan loss provisions/average customer loans (0.5) Net charge-offs/average customer loans Gross nonperforming assets/customer loans + other real estate owned Loan loss reserves/gross nonperforming assets Funding and liquidity: Matched funding and a conservative liquidity policy add to implicit benefits from the link with Upper Austria We expect HYPO OÖ's funding will remain average and its liquidity adequate, reflecting the bank's link with the state and its matched asset-liability profile. Our funding and liquidity assessment incorporates implicit support from HYPO OÖ's link to the state, which materially reduces sensitivity to market confidence. We believe the currently increasing savings deposit base will remain stable over time, owing to HYPO OÖ's status as a GRE, even under systemic stress. In addition, we view HYPO OÖ's main funding tool--covered bonds--as a stable source of funding. Due to the bank's strict matched-funding strategy and conservative liquidity management, its funding and liquidity ratios are comfortable. At year-end 2016, our stable funding ratio for HYPO OÖ was 110% and the liquidity ratio was 1.10x. The ratio increased from 0.74x at year-end 2015, mainly due to the bank's holding of extra cash at the central bank last year. Both the stable funding ratio and liquidity ratio should increase in 2018, given no further large debt maturities in 2018 and The regulatory liquidity coverage ratio amounted to 197% as of Dec. 31, 2016, significantly above the regulatory minimum of 70% in 2016 and 80% from HYPO OÖ is primarily wholesale funded and will remain reliant on the capital market. Core customer deposits, which we consider the most stable funding source, covered only about one-quarter of the loan portfolio on Dec. 31, Wholesale funding represented 79% of the funding base, but most of it is long term and relates to covered bond placements, which we regard as a stable and reliable source of funding in Austria. Covered bonds accounted for 31% of the bank's external funding at year-end 2016, with core non-bank deposits amounting to 19%, and we expect the funding structure to shift toward somewhat higher reliance on covered bonds and core depositors and, to lesser extent, AUGUST 1,
8 senior unsecured debt issuances. Table 6 Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Funding And Liquidity (%) Core deposits/funding base Customer loans (net)/customer deposits Long term funding ratio Stable funding ratio Short-term wholesale funding/funding base Broad liquid assets/short-term wholesale funding (x) Net broad liquid assets/short-term customer deposits 10.0 (39.4) Short-term wholesale funding/total wholesale funding Narrow liquid assets/3-month wholesale funding (x) External support: Three notches of uplift to the SACP We regard HYPO OÖ as a GRE with a high likelihood of receiving timely and sufficient extraordinary support from the government of Upper Austria if needed. Our view of the high likelihood of support is based on our assessment of HYPO OÖ's: Important role as one of Upper Austria's largest GREs. A default of HYPO OÖ could tarnish the state's reputation in the capital markets; and Very strong link with the government of Upper Austria because we don't anticipate any changes to the state's majority stake in HYPO OÖ. In addition, we don't expect the bank's prominent role in the state-supported real estate promotion business to change in the next few years. We believe that the prospect of extraordinary government support for Austrian banks is uncertain following the full implementation of the EU Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive, including bail-in powers, in January However, we generally believe that resolution frameworks are less likely to impede the state owners' willingness to provide extraordinary support to banks we consider GREs, including HYPO OÖ. Despite the reduced predictability of government support to systemically important commercial banks, we expect Upper Austria will remain highly supportive of HYPO OÖ. We regard the Upper Austrian government's propensity to support the bank as not doubtful. In addition, the government has sufficient financial resources to support HYPO OÖ. We expect Upper Austria will continue to support the bank as a long-term shareholder. Furthermore, the bank's other major strategic shareholder, RLB OÖ, has shown support for HYPO OÖ. However, we do not factor support from RLB OÖ into the rating. The uplift reflects our view of HYPO OÖ's GRE status only. We don't expect that additional loss-absorbing capacity will result in uplift to our rating on the bank, since we see a resolution scenario for HYPO OÖ as unlikely, owing to its GRE status. The issue ratings We rate HYPO OÖ's nondeferrable senior subordinated debt at 'BBB-', based on our assessment of the bank's SACP. The issue rating on the nondeferrable senior subordinated debt is two notches lower than the bank's SACP, which AUGUST 1,
9 indicates our view of a bank's credit risk without extraordinary support from the government. We believe that by notching from the SACP assessment, instead of from the long-term counterparty credit rating, we better capture the risk of an increased uncertainty of government support for subordinated debt issues. Our issue rating on HYPO OÖ's outstanding senior and subordinated grandfathered debt guaranteed by Upper Austria is at the same level as the rating on the bank's unguaranteed issues. Because of the type of guarantee, our criteria do not allow equalization of the rating with that on the guarantor. Consequently, we rate HYPO OÖ's grandfathered senior unsecured debt at the same level as its other senior unsecured debt instruments, and the grandfathered subordinated debt at the same level as the other subordinated unsecured debt instruments. Additional rating factors No additional factors affect the ratings. Related Criteria General Criteria: Methodology For Linking Long-Term And Short-Term Ratings, April 7, 2017 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Rating Methodology And Assumptions: Additional Loss-Absorbing Capacity, April 27, 2015 General Criteria: Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, March 25, 2015 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Hybrid Capital And Nondeferrable Subordinated Debt Methodology And Assumptions, Jan. 29, 2015 General Criteria: Group Rating Methodology, Nov. 19, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Quantitative Metrics For Rating Banks Globally: Methodology And Assumptions, July 17, 2013 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Revised Market Risk Charges For Banks In Our Risk-Adjusted Capital Framework, June 22, 2012 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Banks: Rating Methodology And Assumptions, Nov. 9, 2011 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Bank Capital Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 6, 2010 General Criteria: Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 Criteria - Financial Institutions - Banks: Commercial Paper I: Banks, March 23, AUGUST 1,
10 Anchor Matrix Industry Risk Economic Risk a a a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb a a- a- bbb+ bbb bbb bbb a- a- bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb- bbb- bb bbb+ bbb+ bbb+ bbb bbb bbb- bb+ bb bb - 5 bbb+ bbb bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb- b+ 6 bbb bbb bbb- bbb- bbb- bb+ bb bb bb- b+ 7 - bbb- bbb- bb+ bb+ bb bb bb- b+ b bb+ bb bb bb bb- bb- b+ b bb bb- bb- b+ b+ b+ b b+ b+ b+ b b b- Ratings Detail (As Of August 1, 2017) Oberoesterreichische Landesbank AG Counterparty Credit Rating Senior Secured Counterparty Credit Ratings History 13-Jun Dec Jun Jun Aug Jun Jun Aug Dec-2012 Sovereign Rating Austria (Republic of) A+/Negative/A-1 AA+/Stable A+/Negative/A-1 A/Stable/A-1 A/Positive/A-1 A/Stable/A-1 A+/Stable/A-1 A/Watch Neg/A-1 A/Positive/A-1 A/Stable/A-1 A/Negative/A-1 AA+/Stable/A-1+ *Unless otherwise noted, all ratings in this report are global scale ratings. S&P Global Ratings credit ratings on the global scale are comparable across countries. S&P Global Ratings credit ratings on a national scale are relative to obligors or obligations within that specific country. Issue and debt ratings could include debt guaranteed by another entity, and rated debt that an entity guarantees. Additional Contact: Financial Institutions Ratings Europe; FIG_Europe@spglobal.com AUGUST 1,
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