Figure 1 The Dow Jones Should Rally to its 23,000 Target this Year
|
|
- Osborne Mosley
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 July 12, 2017 Dow 23,000 by Year-End! By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP The Dow Jones Index continued its upward climb in the second quarter reaching a high of 21,528 on June 19, Year-to-date, the Dow Jones Index has gained 9.3%, Europe is up 15.4%; Japan has increased by 9.9%; and emerging markets have surged 18.4%. Global diversification has paid off for the first time in several years, assisted by a weaker dollar. Fixed income securities have been generally stable on a price basis and captured their earned interest rate during the quarter. We believe that the stock market is on a path that will eventually lead to new highs by the end of the year (Figure 1). The key to higher values for the stock market is corporate tax reform, dividend repatriation and regulatory relief. Health care reform is becoming an albatross for the Republicans and is unlikely to pass in present form. Up next on the political calendar are a five-week congressional vacation followed by an increase in the debt ceiling, which cannot be done without Democratic help. Trade reform appears to have been deferred on the agenda by special interests and corporate lobbyists. Tax reform will be delayed until the Fall Congressional session at the earliest. I would not be surprised if full tax reform was replaced by scaled down temporary corporate tax reductions as it is easier to give tax breaks rather than take them away. My guess is that tax reform will be a carrot that helps drive the stock market higher. Figure 1 The Dow Jones Should Rally to its 23,000 Target this Year 1
2 The U.S. Economic Story Remains the Same The U.S. economy remains strong despite entering the eighth year of the recovery. The odds of a recession occurring in 2017 continue to be low. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 was 1.2%. After the election, consumer and investor confidence improved, followed by improvement in regional manufacturing indexes and housing sales. Leading economic indicators such as employment, business confidence, retail sales and new home sales all suggest the U.S. economy is on a sustainable growth track for 2017 (Figures 2-3). While late-cycle economic growth is hard to achieve, investors remain optimistic that fiscal stimulus and deregulation will improve the economy later in Figure 2 Real GDP Growth Remains in a 1% to 3% Band Figure 3 - Leading Indicators Remain Positive 2
3 Figure 4 The Labor Market is Booming As described in the JOLTS labor report, a new record was set with over 6 million job openings reported in June (Figure 4). However, there are 6.8 million unemployed Americans looking for work. While some of the difference is due to job location, the majority is due to the mismatch of skills required for new jobs. For example, most job postings for secretaries now require a college degree yet only 19% of actual secretaries have them. The current labor shortage is for skilled labor. Educated and trained labor, particularly younger workers, are seeing significant wage increases to entice them to stay in their current position or to entice them to change jobs. However, these wage increases are being camouflaged by the lack of improvement in wages for unskilled and older workers. At some point, we expect to see wage-driven demand return to the inflation data. European Growth Continues to Outperform in 2017 Global economic growth is improving, led by Europe, which appears to be back from the brink of disaster, and Asia. Economic growth in Europe has gone from mediocre to respectable as a weak Euro has stimulated employment and GDP growth this year. Political uncertainty has been reduced since pro-euro political parties won convincingly in both the Dutch and French elections. The populist movement that led to BREXIT and the election of President Trump, appear to be on the wane in Europe. Eurozone growth is expected to stay in a 1.5% to 2.0% range. European government and central bank policy is starting to shift from fiscal austerity and low interest rates to higher rates and more economic stimulus. European stock markets have underperformed the U.S. by a cumulative 40% over the last 3 years; but have outperformed this year as confidence in the EU improves. 3
4 Emerging Markets are Improving The Emerging market sector continues to improve economically and in the financial markets. China s ongoing rebalancing from investment-led to consumption-led growth will likely result in a continued slowdown in its still-powerful economic engine over the near term as the country manages the transition. Meanwhile, the recession in Latin America might find fresh relief from a mild recovery in commodity prices and generally easier financial conditions. In South America, we think Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Peru offer a much different and more constructive outlook. The risk of a Trump-induced trade war has declined as the administration is distracted by other priorities. What Happened to Inflation? To the surprise of many, U.S. inflation peaked in March and has been declining. This coincides with a 6.0% fall in the energy price index caused by a continued glut of OPEC oil and ongoing expansion in the U.S. oil fracking industry. With unemployment below 4.5% and likely to trend lower, labor market conditions are poised for wage increases in 2017 especially for those with college degrees where the rate remains well under 2.2%. During the second half of the year, I expect that housing and wages should contribute to higher inflation. A 2% inflation target appears reasonable for the near future. Figure 5 A 2% Inflation Target appears Reasonable Only a Chance of Additional Rate Increases this Year In June, The Federal Reserve increased the Federal Funds rate by 0.25% to 1.15%. Fed officials also indicated that, conditions permitting, they would raise rates an additional 1 to 2 times before the year is over. With inflation subsiding and the economy in a sideways pattern, many 4
5 believe that it is unlikely that the Fed will raise rates again in More likely, the Fed will start to trim it s $4.5 trillion balance sheet by letting bonds in inventory mature without replacement. This would be the beginning of a gradual wind-down of Quantitative Easing. In the big picture, the Federal Reserve is leading global central banks to tighten monetary policy. Recent comments from European Union, Japan and Canada have indicated that the easy money policies of the past 8 years are on the way out and interest rates have moved higher in those countries. Coordinated central bank actions are dependent on economic growth and the rising inflation that results. I believe that rates should increase globally over the next year or two. Bond Market Outlook Fixed income investments have moved sideways so far in 2017 (Figure 6). My strategy is to decrease maturity risk and increase credit risk to find performance in the bond market. Both high quality and long-term bonds are most affected by the increase in interest rates and I believe it is best to sell these on rallies. On the other hand, high-yield bonds, floating rate funds, foreign fixed income and short maturity bonds are not as sensitive to changes in the yield curve and should become the focus in the fixed income portion of a diversified portfolio. Figure 6 U.S. 10-Yr. Treasuries Remain in a 2.1% to 2.9% Trading Range Measures of Market Valuation Suggest a Frothy Stock Market The U.S. stock market is at levels of valuation not seen since the 1929 crash and the 2000 dot.com bust (Figure 7). Several highly regarded investment managers are preaching caution and even the Federal Reserve has commented on the price/earnings levels of the U.S. stock market. Investors and advisors are as complacent and fully invested as I have ever seen. To the market s credit, a substantial portion of the high valuation is due to the exceptionally low level of interest rates. While I do not want to be a naysayer, there are things that could go wrong which could prevent the market from achieving the target of 23,000 I see ahead. 5
6 Figure 7 - Measures of Market Valuation Suggest a Frothy Stock Market My concerns that could affect the market include: Unified tightening of credit by global central banks. The markets have been spoiled by 8 years of exceptional central bank liquidity and low interest rates. As this cycle appears to be turning, the bond market may get ahead of the central banks and increase rates more than warranted. Higher interest rates would lead to compression of multiples for high dividend stocks. A collapse in oil prices. While most think that a decline in oil prices is good for the consumer and the economy, many oil companies (and countries) are highly leveraged. The result could be an oil bond bust. The decline in oil prices appears driven by lower cost shale oil & gas extraction, a global trend towards more efficient electric cars and countries dependent on pumping more oil at whatever the cost. The underfunded pension bubble. These outstanding liabilities continue to plague many governments, states, municipalities and some companies. As the baby boomer generation retires, the underfunded pension plans will either have to pay up and raise taxes to fund the obligation or reduce the payments to their retirees. At some point this problem is going to reach a boiling point which could result in problems for the municipal bond market. Cyberattacks. In April, a group dumped a collection of NSA spy tools on the internet. These are now being converted to weapons to be used against global commerce. Many companies and governments are unprepared for a global cyber terrorist attack. Stock markets would not react well should one develop. North Korea. The question is whether the U.S. should attack or isolate North Korea. Be assured that the stock market and economy would not like a shooting war. 6
7 Portfolio Structure Many view the U.S. stock market as overextended but with strong fundamentals. With investors setting their sights on the improving Emerging Markets and European stock markets, capital is starting to flow out of the U.S. to be invested overseas. Whether this may be the beginning of a trend or just a temporary phenomenon is unclear. Based on valuation, I have moved some of our U.S. equity exposure to international and emerging market equities. The U.S. remains the safe haven for all global investors. With interest rates rising, capital is forced back into all forms of equities there is no other alternative. While valuations remain rich relative to earnings, the path of least resistance is to be invested. I am optimistic that investor psychology will lead to a test of Dow 23,000 by the end of the year. I have built diversified global portfolios for clients and intend to have patience through the surprises presented to the financial markets in Bonds are in a coupon clipping market with limited prospects for principal price improvement. Unless we see a material rise in inflation, yields are range-bound for the near future. Based upon a resilient economy, we are taking measured amounts of credit risk and reducing maturity risk. Overall stock market performance in the U.S. is likely to be dependent upon the success of Republican pro-growth tax policies, avoiding major trade wars, and approving constructive economic plans. Initial optimism about the Trump agenda has faded due to possible scandals and the slow legislative process. However, I am optimistic that corporate tax cuts will be delivered by early 2018 and should propel the stock market higher. Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP, is the President of Noyes Capital Management, LLC, an independent fee-only wealth management firm based in New Vernon, New Jersey. Please visit our website at This newsletter is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to investment advisory services of Noyes Capital Management, LLC ( Noyes Capital ). No portion of this commentary is to be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell a security, or the rendering of personalized investment, tax or legal advice. Any reference to a market index is included for illustrative purposes only, as an index is not a security in which an investment can be made. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, as there is no assurance that the views and opinions expressed herein will come to pass. Noyes Capital Management, LLC ( Noyes Capital ) is a state registered investment advisor with a principal place of business in the State of New Jersey. Noyes Capital and its representatives are in compliance with the current registration requirements imposed upon registered investment advisors by those states in which Noyes Capital maintains clients. Noyes Capital may only transact business in those states in which it is registered, or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration requirements. Any subsequent, direct communication by Noyes Capital with a prospective client shall be conducted by a representative that is either registered or qualifies for an exemption or exclusion from registration in the state where the prospective client resides. For additional information, please consult Noyes Capital s Form ADV disclosure documents, the most recent versions of which are available on the SEC s Investment Adviser Public Disclosure website ( and may otherwise be made available upon written request. 7
October 12, Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP
October 12, 2017 Dow 23,000 Target Achieved What Next? By Scott P. Noyes, CFA CFP It is time to celebrate as the Dow approaches a multi-year target of 23,000. On October 5 th, the Dow reached 22,775, effectively
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationNOYES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC Wealth Management for Changing Markets 17 Village Road, New Vernon, NJ
October 6, 2011 NOYES CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC Wealth Management for Changing Markets 17 Village Road, New Vernon, NJ 07976-0271 973-267-8120 Searching for Quality Income October 2011 By Scott P. Noyes,
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More information2018 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY ECONOMIC COMMENTARY December 4 207 208 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK EXPECT BETTER GROWTH WORLDWIDE John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Barry Gilbert, PhD, CFA Asset Allocation
More informationTable 1: Economic Growth Measures
US Equities continued to advance in the second quarter, with the S&P 500 returning 5.2% for the quarter and 7.1% for the first half. Energy was by far the best performing sector in the quarter, returning
More informationNational Economic Outlook
National Economic Outlook MSBO Financial Strategies Conference January 17, 2018 Presented by: Kyle Jones, Director of Portfolio Strategies PFM Asset Management LLC One Keystone Plaza, Suite 300 N. Front
More informationThe yellow highlighted areas are bear markets with NO recession.
Part 3, Final Report: Major Market Reversal Model This is the third and final report on my major market reversal model. This portion of the model focuses on the domestic and international economy. I ve
More informationOur goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling
Our goal is to provide a clear perspective on the global financial markets, as well as a logical framework to discuss them, thereby enabling investors to recognize both the opportunities and risks that
More informationTeetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis?
Teetering on the brink: is the world heading for another financial crisis? Adrian Cooper CEO & Chief Economist acooper@oxfordeconomics.com Peter Suomi Director petersuomi@oxfordeconomics.com October 2011
More informationChange, Growth and Uncertainty
SPRING 2017 Change, Growth and Uncertainty SUMMARY ANTHONY CHAN, PHD CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Anthony is a member of the J.P. Morgan Global Investment Committee. He travels extensively to meet with Chase
More informationGaining trust newsletter
Gaining trust newsletter Spring 2017 Global economic outlook The International Monetary Fund is projecting global economic growth to be 3.4% and 3.6% in 2017 and 2018, respectively. Emerging market economies
More informationGLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OUTLOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY KEY TAKEAWAYS 2017 was an excellent year for international equities, particularly EM. We favor the United States and EM equities for tactical global asset allocations
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Further Stock Gain on Faster GDP Rebound and Earnings Recovery. Year-end Target Raised
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: FurtherStock Gains Likely, Year-end Target Raised. Bond Under Pressure
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond Yields Range Bound
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Rebounding from July Correction, Further Gains Likely. Bond
More information2017 Outlook: Focus Shifts to Fiscal Policy & Populist Politics
2017 Outlook: Focus Shifts to Fiscal Policy & Populist Politics January 11, 2017 by Neil Dwane of Allianz Global Investors Key takeaways Populist politics will drive market volatility: Europe will confront
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook 2014 Year Ahead Outlook January 2014 2014 Year Ahead - Global Investment Outlook Financial Market Outlook: After Strong Gains
More informationQ Commentary & SERVICES GROUP, INC. EALTH - # -
Q1 2015 Commentary Overview As expected, 2015 started out with an increase in volatility across all asset classes. Global stocks experienced many large intraday moves, interest rates tested historic lows,
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy May 2008 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationCornerstone Report Special Report February 04, 2019 By: Jerry E. Tuma, MS, CFP
Pa Cornerstone Report Special Report February 04, 2019 By: Jerry E. Tuma, MS, CFP Special Edition Market Update As we go to press the market has continued to rally off of the December 24th bottom. The
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy March 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationING Fixed Income Perspectives - November 2013
ING Fixed Income Perspectives - November 2013 November 29, 2013 by Christine Hurtsellers and Matt Toms of ING Investement Management ING U.S. Investment Management Fixed Income Perspectives November 27,
More informationEconomic Outlook Summer 2014
Economic Outlook Summer 2014 An Expanding Global Economy FROM ANTHONY CHAN, PHD, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Positive signs ahead, with caution due to geopolitical unrest There have been many positive signs
More informationWashington & The Investment Landscape Daniel Clifton February 2019 Macro Research
Washington & The Investment Landscape Daniel Clifton February 2019 Macro Research Investment Strategy Economics Policy Research Quantitative Research Technical Research Fixed Income Research Industry Surveys
More informationThird Quarter Market Review
Third Quarter Market Review The S&P 500 continued its winning streak, with the index appreciating in value by 3.96% for the quarter (see chart below). This market barometer was up all three months of the
More informationThe Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting
The Economy: Growth Has Been Weak But Long-Lasting October 19, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Why This Economic Recovery Has Been So Disappointing 2. The Fourth Longest Economic Expansion
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationGary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds
Gary Shilling - Why You Should Own Bonds February 17, 2015 by Robert Huebscher If you followed Gary Shilling s advice for the last 30 years, you would be very wealthy. Shilling runs the New Jersey-based
More informationApril 2016 Market Commentary
April 2016 Market Commentary Domestic equity indices finished the month mixed, while international developed markets ended higher. The falling U.S. dollar continued to reverberate across markets, especially
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy April 2017 Stock Markets likely to Grind Higher as Expectations of Strong Earnings Growth & Improving Global GDP
More informationAthena Wealth Management. March 2017 Investment Research Report
Athena Wealth Management March 2017 Investment Research Report Summary The Trump rally began to run out of fuel in March. But the MSCI emerging market index still recorded a growth of 2.35%, performed
More informationEconomic Summary. Visit us online at for the most recent market updates, Insights and Perspectives
Economic Summary During the June Meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised the federal funds rate by 25 bps to a range of 1.75% to 2.%. Encouraged by falling unemployment rates and rising
More information2016 July Financial Market Update
Brexit Fades as Focus Returns Home 2016 July Financial Market Update Last month s summary ended with the following remarks: July 29, 2016 Don t discount the possibility of additional short-term volatility
More informationWILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE?
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY March 7 216 WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO SHINE? Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS
More informationOutlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007
VOL2.NO.2 January 2007 Outlook for the Japanese Economy in 2007 Economic recovery surpasses Izanagi in length The economy is continuing its longest post-war economic recovery. Nearly five years have passed
More informationFinancial Market Outlook: Stock Rally Continues with Faster & Stronger GDP Rebound, Earnings Recovery & Liquidity
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Further Stock Gains with Macro Sweet Spot & Earnings Recovery.
More informationMore Than Just Policy, Fortunately April 2017
Quadrant A Quarterly Update More Than Just Policy, Fortunately April 2017 Portfolio Management Team Key Points: 1 Positive investor sentiment spread from U.S. to global equities in the first quarter of
More informationIncreasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market
Increasing Risk of Medium-Term Correction Within Ongoing Bull Market This is a Markets Now Seminar March 27 th 2017 By David Fuller fullertreacymoney.com The Caledonian Club 9 Halkin Street London SW1Y
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy March 2017 Global Stock Markets Rally likely to Continue, Driven by Strong Earnings & Strengthening GDP Growth.
More informationHere's To Your Wealth October, 2015
Page 1 of 6 Here's To Your Wealth October, 2015 The Markets: The third quarter was a tough one for stocks, and we received a few more comments of concern from investors than expected. Perhaps this nervousness
More informationFixed Income Strategy
April 2018 Fixed Income Strategy It Looks Like the 3% Target on the 10-Year Treasury Yield Will Have to Wait Richard Belley, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist After months of relative underperformance, fixed
More informationAsset Allocation Model March Update
The month of February was marked by a sell-off in global equity markets and a sudden increase in market volatility with the CBOE Volatility Index reaching its highest level since August 2015. The rout
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook September 2013 Financial Market Outlook: Stocks likely to Remain in Modest Uptrend with Low Rates & Plentiful Liquidity, Improving
More informationMIDTERM TAKEAWAYS COMMENTARY THE BEST NEWS FIRST KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. November
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY November 12 218 MIDTERM TAKEAWAYS John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Getting
More informationGESTION DE RISQUES FINANCIERS FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT
GESTION DE RISQUES FINANCIERS FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT 2019-03 / Market Commentary Bonjour, Here s our take on currency movements for the coming weeks. Although struggling, the Canadian economy could
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy October 2009 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More informationNovember PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy November 2015 John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Theresa Miller Phone:
More information2017 Mid-Year Outlook
2017 Mid-Year Outlook Whither the Trump Reflation? July 25, 2017 Executive Summary Economy resilient; growth continues, maintain equity positions Expect increased volatility, valuations elevated Low interest
More informationTHE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION
THE UCLA ANDERSON FORECAST FOR THE NATION DECEMBER REPORT Sunny 2018, Cloudy SUNNY 2018, CLOUDY Sunny 2018, Cloudy David Shulman Senior Economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast December Of a sudden, propelled
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 2017
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report October 17 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence indicators
More informationINVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018
INVESTMENT REVIEW Q2 2018 OVERVIEW Surveys and hard data show the global economy growing at a healthy pace with minimal inflation risk. Activity accelerated in Q2 and our expectation of 3.4% GDP growth
More informationPMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
More informationU.S. INVESTMENT OUTLOOK
Econometric Advisors U.S. INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Q3 2018 U.S. INVESTMENT REMAINING IMPACT OF FISCAL BOOST TO KEEP 2019 OUTLOOK STRONG JOB GAINS TO MODERATE AND WAGES TO GAIN AS LABOR MARKET TIGHTENS STRONG
More informationWHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US ABOUT THE ELECTION
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY August 22 2016 WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING US ABOUT THE ELECTION Burt White Chief Investment Officer, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist, LPL Financial
More informationCash Management Portfolios
September 30, 2018 Portfolio Manager Commentary Cash Management Portfolios Chief Investment Officer Jim Palmer What market conditions had a direct impact on the bond market this quarter? Positive economic
More informationRecap of 2017 Markets and Economy
Welcome to 2018! As always, our primary goal this year is to continue our tradition of helping clients achieve their personal financial goals. To make that process more efficient, please review the 2018
More informationPRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook February 2015 Stocks to Fully Rebound from Late 2014/Early 2015 Sell-off with ECB Launching Aggressive QE, Rate Cuts by Several
More informationFixed income market update. June BMO Fixed Income Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida bmogam.
Fixed income market update June 2018 BMO Fixed Income 1001 Brickell Bay Dr. Suite 2100 Miami, Florida 33131 bmogam.com/usfixedincome Fixed income market update Fixed Income Sectors Total Returns For the
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014)
April 30, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (April 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a pace
More informationFinancial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks
For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com Financial Market Outlook & Strategy: Stocks Bottoming On Track to Recovery. Near-term Risks John Praveen
More informationMedium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER DECEMBER 2014 OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY COMPOSITION OF PORTFOLIO QUANTUM FUNDS
QUANTUM FUNDS ($500 INVESTMENT) Medium Risk Portfolio QUANTUM FUNDS PORTFOLIO REVIEW NOVEMBER OBJECTIVE AND STRATEGY The fund pursues the objective of long-term total returns combined with capital preservation.
More informationInvestment Newsletter September 2012
Licensed by the California Department of Corporations as an Investment Advisor Government policies have always had a significant impact on investors and investments, but the level of intervention in the
More information- Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931.
Fourth Quarter 2018 Market Newsletter Summary. - Stocks and credit sensitive bonds sold off in the fourth quarter of 2018 capping off the worst December since 1931. - The US economy is moderating but is
More informationQuarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014
Quarterly Investment Briefing February 5, 2014 Clayton T. Bill, CFA Stephen J. Nilles, CFP Agenda Topic Page 2013 Review 3 Corporate Earnings and Profit Margins 5 Equity Market Valuations 7 Bonds and Expected
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS Third Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationEconomic outlook Thoughts on what to expect in Dr. Ira Kalish Chief Global Economist, Deloitte
Economic outlook Thoughts on what to expect in 2018 Dr. Ira Kalish Chief Global Economist, Deloitte USA Strong job market Full employment Employment rising faster than needed to absorb new entrants into
More informationINVESTMENT OUTLOOK. August 2017
INVESTMENT OUTLOOK August 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK AUGUST 2017 MACRO-ECONOMICS AND CURRENCIES Developed and Emerging Markets A series of comments from major central banks during the month, reminded investors
More informationParallel News and Events Q22012
August 2012 Q2 2012 Investment & Planning Newsletter Parallel News and Events Q22012 In the second quarter we remained focused on helping clients navigate a volatile market while at the same time developing
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook
Global Economic Outlook Will the growth continue and at what pace? Latin American Conference São Paulo August 2018 Lasse Sinikallas Director, Macroeconomics Copyright 2018 RISI, Inc. Proprietary Information
More informationFebruary PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2016 Equity Market Turmoil in Early 2016 on Oil-Induced Recession Fears. Stocks Likely to Stabilize with
More informationWeekly Economic Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Economic Commentary May 6, 2013 Clearing Up Confusion on Common Queries John Canally, CFA Economist LPL Financial Highlights The Federal Reserve (Fed) is responsible for monetary
More informationDan Miller - Advice & Portfolio Specialist Dan Wanstreet, CFA - Senior Advice & Portfolio Specialist
Dan Miller - Advice & Portfolio Specialist Dan Wanstreet, CFA - Senior Advice & Portfolio Specialist January 2018 Recap U.S. equities started the year off on a positive note, as recently passed tax reform
More informationPrudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010
Prudential International Investments Advisers, LLC. Global Investment Strategy February 2010 By John Praveen, Chief Investment Strategist For Market Commentary Interviews Contact: Lisa Villareal, 973-367-2503/lisa.villareal@prudential.com
More information2016 May Financial Market Update
Charles Sherry Director, Institutional Education Group Blue Ocean Global Wealth 51 Monroe St., Plaza West 06 Rockville, MD 20850 Tel: 720.308.4560 csherry@blueoceanglobalwealth.com 2016 May Financial Market
More informationEconomic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 2018
Economic and Financial Markets Monthly Review & Outlook Detailed Report January 1 NOT FDIC INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE Overview of the Economy Business and economic confidence continue to
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review April 2019 Dr. Gil Michael Bufman, Chief Economist Arie Tal, Research Economist Economics Department, Capital Markets Division 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page
More informationOutlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014)
October 31, 2014 Bank of Japan Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (October 2014) The Bank's View 1 Summary From fiscal 2014 through fiscal 2016, Japan's economy is likely to continue growing at a
More informationInvestment Market Performance
Investment Markets in December, Review of 2014 and Outlook for 2015 Markets weakened in local currency terms in December but US and Japanese markets gained in Euro terms as the Euro weakened further. Equity
More informationGeneral Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow?
General Economic Outlook Recession! Will it be Short and Shallow? Larry DeBoer January 2002 We re in a recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the quasiofficial arbiter of business
More informationStrategy With fading EU political risks, global business cycle back in focus
Investment Research General Market Conditions 5 May 2017 Strategy With fading EU political risks, global business cycle back in focus Political risks in Europe fading for now Political risks in Europe
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook - July 2018
Global Economic Outlook - July 2018 July 5, 2018 by Carl Tannenbaum, Ryan James Boyle, Brian Liebovich, Vaibhav Tandon of Northern Trust The world economy generally performed well during the first half
More informationElection Playbook. October 27, 2016 by Burt White of LPL Financial
Election Playbook October 27, 2016 by Burt White of LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS In our election playbook, we discuss some investments that could possibly receive an election boost. Some areas that may
More informationQuarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War
Foregin Direct Investment (Billion USD) China U.S. Asia World Quarterly Economic Outlook: Quarter 3 2018 on 25 September 2018 Strong Economic Expansions amidst Uncertainty of Trade War Thai Economy: Thai
More informationInsight. Market View Q Cash
Insight Market View Q 18 This document presents a high level summary of our investment views. As we are making decisions about what to buy and sell in your portfolio, we want to be accountable to you by
More information2018 Convertible Outlook
SSI Investment Management January 2018 2018 Convertible Outlook By: Ravi Malik, CFA, Portfolio Manager 2017 was a strong year for risk assets including convertibles, driven by synchronized global expansion,
More informationThe Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015
The Saturday Economist The Saturday Economist UK Economic Outlook Q1 2015 Leisure and Construction driving recovery UK Economic Outlook March 2015 Page 1 The UK recovery continues. We expect growth of
More informationMacro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 2018
Macro Monthly UBS Asset Management June 18 Investing in a mature cycle Erin Browne Head of Asset Allocation Evan Brown, CFA Director, Asset Allocation Roland Czerniawski, CFA Associate Director, Asset
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook 2018: Reflections on Growing Economies and Fading Stimulus
Global Investment Outlook 2018: Reflections on Growing Economies and Fading Stimulus December 23, 2017 by Team of Franklin Templeton Investments As markets shift away from the recovery era of monetary
More informationSeptember 14, 2016 OUTLOOK
OUTLOOK September 14, 2016 The financial markets summer calm broke recently as new concerns arose about the interest rate outlook. While it s clear that financial markets have been supported by easy monetary
More informationWhat s next? A macro view of 2018
What s next? A macro view of 2018 Hong Kong 12 January 2018 John Greenwood Chief Economist, Invesco Ltd This document is intended only for 2018 Invesco Roadshow in Hong Kong. This is not an invitation
More informationOverall M&A Market Commentary
Overall M&A Market Commentary The U.S. economy continues to show strong momentum with 2Q18 GDP growth recorded at 4.2%. The Blue Chip consensus estimate for 3Q18 GDP growth of 3.3% and the Atlanta Fed
More information2016 February Financial Market Update
Charles Sherry Director, Institutional Education Group Blue Ocean Global Wealth 51 Monroe St., Plaza West 06 Rockville, MD 20850 Tel: 720.308.4560 csherry@blueoceanglobalwealth.com 2016 February Financial
More informationLatin America Outlook. 1st QUARTER 2018
Latin America Outlook 1st QUARTER Main messages 1. Strong global growth continues. Forecasts revised up in in most areas. Growth stabilizing in. 2. Growth recovers in Latin America, reaching close to potential
More informationEconomic & Capital Market Outlook Third Quarter, 2018
Economic & Capital Market Outlook Third Quarter, 2018 Economic Outlook The domestic economy is functioning as well as any period since 2007, however we expect economic growth to slow next year. Measured
More informationGlobal Economic Outlook Brittle Strength
Global Economic Outlook Brittle Strength RISI North American Conference October 2017 Lasse Sinikallas Director Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot Steady 2. North America Performing 3. China In Transition
More informationData Brief. Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy
cepr Center for Economic and Policy Research Data Brief Dangerous Trends: The Growth of Debt in the U.S. Economy Dean Baker 1 September 7, 2004 CENTER FOR ECONOMIC AND POLICY RESEARCH 1611 CONNECTICUT
More information2013 Outlook. We help manage your family s financial life. Officer. Ashley M. McCarthy. Financial Consultant. 4 th Quarter 2012 Review
2013 Outlook 4 th Quarter 2012 Review We help manage your family s financial life. Christopher W. Davis, CFP, CIMA Managing Director Investments Officer Harriet R. White, CRPC Financial Consultant Karen
More information