Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four- Year Colleges. Paper by Kane and Rouse Replicated by Andreas Kraft

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1 Labor Market Returns to Two- and Four- Year Colleges Paper by Kane and Rouse Replicated by Andreas Kraft

2 Theory Estimating the return to two-year colleges Economic Return to credit hours or sheepskin effects Human Capital Signaling Challenges Selection Bias Wrong self reported level of education Sample size

3 The National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of ,652 seniors from the high-school class of 1972 contains transcript information on all post-secondary schools reported by the students through 1979 Survey participants were last contacted in 1986 (~60%) Excluded: Self employed in 87 Participants that did not take survey every year Wages below $1.67 and above $60

4 Control Variables Race years of actual experience and experience squared dummies for region and size of the city dummies for part-time employment and region of the respondent's high school education dummies for self-reported education begun after 1979 parents' income percentage rank in high school NLS-72 test score

5 Male, no ability/ family background Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,249 F(22, 3226) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcred totcred ( 1) totcred2 - totcred4 = 0 F( 1, 3502) = 7.43 Prob > F =

6 Male, including family/ ability background Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,249 F(32, 3216) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcred totcred ( 1) totcred2 - totcred4 = 0 F( 1, 3216) = 0.02 Prob > F =

7 Male, including background and degree Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,249 F(35, 3213) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcrd2b totcrd4b evcmpaa evcmpba evcmpgr

8 Hypothesis Testing ( 1) totcrd2b - totcrd4b = 0 ( 1) 2*totcrd2b - evcmpaa = 0 F( 1, 3213) = 3.54 Prob > F = F( 1, 3213) = 0.69 Prob > F = ( 1) evcmpaa = 0 ( 2) evcmpba = 0 ( 3) evcmpgr = 0 ( 1) 4*totcrd4b - evcmpba = 0 F( 1, 3213) = Prob > F = F( 3, 3213) = Prob > F =

9 Female, no ability/family background Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,514 F(22, 3491) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcred totcred ( 1) totcred2 - totcred4 = 0 F( 1, 3491) = 1.22 Prob > F =

10 Female, including ability/ family background Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,514 F(32, 3481) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcred totcred ( 1) totcred2 - totcred4 = 0 F( 1, 3481) = 0.00 Prob > F =

11 Female, including background and degree Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,514 F(35, 3478) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnhrwage Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] totcrd2b totcrd4b evcmpaa evcmpba evcmpgr

12 Hypothesis Testing ( 1) totcrd2b - totcrd4b = 0 ( 1) 2*totcrd2b - evcmpaa = 0 F( 1, 3213) = 3.54 Prob > F = F( 1, 3213) = 0.69 Prob > F = ( 1) evcmpaa = 0 ( 2) evcmpba = 0 ( 3) evcmpgr = 0 F( 3, 3213) = Prob > F = ( 1) 4*totcrd4b - evcmpba = 0 F( 1, 3213) = Prob > F =

13 National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth , year-olds in : 82% were sampled More recent cohort Better labor-force information Schooling info not as good

14 Control Variables controls for region and urban area in 1990 a dummy variable indicating employed part-time a dummy variable indicating missing type of college age in 1979 race parents' education Armed Forces Qualification Test score Actual experience

15 Male1990_w~e Male1990_a~l Female1990~e Female1990~l b/se b/se b/se b/se evvocsch * (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.04) only2yr 0.076* ** (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.04) only4yr 0.083* 0.160*** (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.05) both 0.088* 0.134* * (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) (0.06) aa 0.207*** 0.236*** 0.188*** 0.309*** (0.04) (0.05) (0.04) (0.05) ba 0.339*** 0.422*** 0.331*** 0.513*** (0.03) (0.04) (0.03) (0.05) graduate 0.442*** 0.669*** 0.426*** 0.573*** (0.05) (0.07) (0.06) (0.08) otherdeg * 0.315*** 0.348***

16 NLSY in 2012 Final year the cohort was surveyed Used sample went from 4,548 to 3,032 Higher standard errors Potential bias Gender Difference seems to be larger Some quite different Results from 1990

17 Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max only2yr 5, only4yr 5, both 5, evvocsch 5, aa 5, ba 5, graduate 5, otherdeg 5, Variable Obs Mean Std. Dev. Min Max only2yr 3, only4yr 3, both 3, evvocsch 3, aa 3, ba 3, graduate 3, otherdeg 3,

18 Male, hourly rate Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1,416 F(29, 1386) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE =.5097 lnwage2012 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg

19 Female, hourly rate Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1,616 F(29, 1586) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnwage2012 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg

20 Dummy for female, hourly rate Source SS df MS Number of obs = 3,032 F(30, 3001) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnwage2012 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg female

21 Male, annual earnings Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1,302 F(29, 1272) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE =.7566 lnearn12 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg

22 Female, annual earnings Source SS df MS Number of obs = 1,477 F(29, 1447) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnearn12 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg

23 Female dummy, annual earnings Source SS df MS Number of obs = 2,779 F(30, 2748) = Model Prob > F = Residual , R-squared = Adj R-squared = Total , Root MSE = lnearn12 Coef. Std. Err. t P> t [95% Conf. Interval] evvocsch only2yr only4yr both aa ba graduate otherdeg female

24 Male1990 Male2012 Female1990 Female2012 b/se b/se b/se b/se evvocsch * (0.03) (0.05) (0.03) (0.04) only2yr 0.076* 0.151** * (0.03) (0.05) (0.03) (0.04) only4yr 0.083* 0.176** (0.04) (0.05) (0.03) (0.05) both 0.088* 0.147* (0.04) (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) aa 0.207*** 0.250*** 0.188*** 0.178*** (0.04) (0.06) (0.04) (0.05) ba 0.339*** 0.458*** 0.331*** 0.319*** (0.03) (0.05) (0.03) (0.04) graduate 0.442*** 0.800*** 0.426*** 0.565*** (0.05) (0.09) (0.06) (0.09) otherdeg * 0.315*** 0.294*** (0.07) (0.10) (0.06) (0.09)

25 Conclusion Similar returns to 2-year and 4-year credit hours There is a sheepskin effect Returns to college attendance have increased Returns to college completion have increased Problems: Sample size makes IV approach hard Potential biases

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