MACKENZIE GLOBAL LARGE CAP QUALITY GROWTH CONSTRAINED CAD Q COMMENTARY

Transcription

1 GLOBAL LARGE CAP QUALITY GROWTH CONSTRAINED CAD

2 INCEPTION: September BENCHMARK: MSCI World Total Return Index STRATEGY ASSETS: C$ 594 million GLOBAL LARGE CAP QUALITY GROWTH CONSTRAINED CAD PERFORMANCE SUMMARY PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT TEAM: Paul Musson, CFA Industry Start: 1992 Firm Start: 2000 Matt Moody, MBA, CFA Industry Start: 1999 Firm Start: 2005 Robert McKee, MSc., MBA, CFA Industry Start: 2007 Firm Start: 2011 Hussein Sunderji, MBA, CFA Industry Start: 2007 Firm Start: 2013 Graham Meagher, CFA Associate Portfolio Manager Industry Start: 1999 Firm Start: 2014 Adam Gofton,CFA Associate Portfolio Manager Industry Start: 2007 Firm Start: 2013 In Q2 2018, the Mackenzie Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained Composite returned 2.6% (Gross, CAD), 2.3% (Net, CAD). This compares with the MSCI World Index return of 3.9%. CONTRIBUTORS TO PERFORMANCE From a sector perspective, the portfolio benefited from an underweight exposure to and stock selection in Financials, as well as favorable selection in Consumer Staples. At a regional level, stock selection in the United States, Sweden and Germany contributed to relative performance. The largest active contributors included: W.W. Grainger, Costco Wholesale Corporation, Henry Schein, and Nike. These stocks, as a group, were weaker performers last year for a variety of reasons but mostly focused on channel shift dynamic, price transparency and Amazon. Though all these dynamics are real we believe the degree of impact was, and is, being overstated. Grainger has shown that their price adjustment could be effective and they have significant advantages in the marketplace, both online and offline. A strong industrial market has helped them as well. Costco sold off a year ago after Amazon purchased Whole Foods. We increased our position as we don t see any immediate nor likely long-term impact from the acquisition. It will be very difficult for Amazon to compete with Costco s cost position for a very long time. Costco is slowly migrating their advantage online and we expect continued success. Henry Schein continues to execute well in a slower dental market and we expect consistent results to chip away at the disintermediation theme. Schein announced they are spinning out their animal health distribution business while combining it with Vets First Choice. We ll do our diligence on the combined company in advance of the spinoff later in the year. The spin is partly about multiple realization as fast-growing animal health businesses attract comparatively high multiples. Nike has started to regain consumer mindshare with new innovation while the Adidas driven retro sneaker trend is starting to fade. We believe Nike is executing their triple double strategy at a very high level and expect continued market share growth. They saw a lot of success in their first year with the NBA apparel deal and are seeing a lot of strength in China. James Morrison, MBA, CFA Associate Portfolio Manager Industry Start: 2005 Firm Start: 2014 Zain Shafiq, MBA Senior Investment Analyst Industry Start: 2008 Firm Start: 2014 Jason Miller, MBA, CFA Senior Investment Analyst Industry Start: 2008 Firm Start: 2016

3 DETRACTORS FROM PERFORMANCE From a sector perspective, an underweight exposure to and stock selection in Information Technology and stock selection in Consumer Discretionary detracted from relative performance the most. Having no exposure to the outperforming Energy sector also hindered. At a regional level, stock selection in Hong Kong and Australia detracted from performance, as did the exposure to South Korea. Cash weighting in the portfolio detracted from relative performance, as the benchmark experienced a positive return during the period. The largest active detractors included: Hyundai Motor Company, Samsonite International, and CK Hutchison Holdings. Hyundai Motor s share price fell during the quarter due to concern about the impact of potential auto tariffs imposed the by U.S. Hyundai s Q1 F2018 results, reported in late April, were also somewhat weak, but the company has since reported a rebound in unit sales in various geographies, including the U.S. and China. While Hyundai Motor would likely not be unscathed by the imposition of auto tariffs in the U.S., we believe the impact would be manageable given the company s local production footprint in the U.S. and diverse global selling and production footprint (the U.S. accounts for ~15% of total unit sales for Hyundai Motor). Samsonite was the target of a short-seller report in late May. The report called into question some of Samsonite s accounting practices, the credentials of CEO Ramesh Tainwala, and other governance-related matters. This caused Samsonite s share price to fall significantly. Samsonite subsequently issued a rebuttal, which thoroughly addressed the majority of the issues outlined in the short-seller report. However, Samsonite decided to part ways with its CEO due to issues related to credibility, and replaced him with CFO Kyle Gendreau. We have met Mr. Gendreau on several occasions he has good knowledge of the business and has been actively involved in the formation of the company s strategy. We are comforted by the fact that Chairman Tim Parker will remain in his role, and will be actively involved in strategic planning and oversight. Samsonite s share price recovered some of the decline, but is still well below peak levels and currently trades at an attractive valuation. Business performance has been strong and we do not believe these recent events pose a material risk to the company s operations or long-term prospects. CK Hutchison s valuation has compressed due to a decline in the broader Hong Kong equity market and weaker sentiment towards interest-rate sensitive stocks. Some of CKHH s key segments are infrastructure-related and somewhat interest rate sensitive. However, we do not view CKHH as a bond-proxy given its ability to capture inflation through pricing, significant excess free cashflow generation, and diverse business mix. CKHH also announced during Q2 that founder and Chairman Li Ka Shing will retire, and will be succeeded by his son Victor Li. We are very comfortable with this transition, as Victor Li has been deeply involved in CKHH s various businesses for a number of years and we expect the company to operate with the same philosophy and long-term mindset under his leadership.

4 CONTRIBUTORS AVG. ACTIVE WEIGHT CONTRIBUTION TO Q2 RETURNS TOP 5 CONTRIBUTORS SECTOR W.W. Grainger, Inc. Industrials 5.2% 0.5% Henry Schein, Inc. Health Care 6.4% 0.4% Costco Wholesale Corporation Consumer Staples 3.6% 0.3% NIKE, Inc. Class B Consumer Discretionary 1.8% 0.3% PepsiCo, Inc. Consumer Staples 1.7% 0.2% DETRACTORS AVG. ACTIVE WEIGHT CONTRIBUTION TO Q2 RETURNS TOP 5 DETRACTORS SECTOR Hyundai Motor Company Consumer Discretionary 2.7% -0.5% Samsonite International S.A. Consumer Discretionary 1.8% -0.4% CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd Industrials 3.1% -0.4% Amcor Ltd Materials 4.7% -0.3% Brambles Limited Industrials 1.4% -0.3% PERFORMANCE ATTRIBUTION 2018 Q2 Country 2018 Q2 Sector 1 Year Country as at June 30, Year Sector as at June 30, % -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% SECTOR ATTRIBUTION Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Information Technology Materials Real Estate Telecommunication Services Utilities Cash -2.0% -1.5% -1.0% -0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% COUNTRY ATTRIBUTION Australia Austria Belgium Canada Denmark Finland France Germany Hong Kong Ireland Israel Italy Japan Korea Netherlands New Zealand Norway Portugal Singapore Spain Sweden Switzerland United Kingdom United States Cash -2% -1% 0% 1% Allocation Stock Selection Currency Cash Other Attribution versus MSCI World Total Return Index in CAD

5 PORTFOLIO ACTIVITY Portfolio activity and market effect resulted in increased exposure to Consumer Staples and reduced exposure to Consumer Discretionary, Health Care and Industrials. The cash level slightly increased. At the country level, exposure to Hong Kong, France and Belgium had the largest decline, while exposure to the United Kingdom increased. Reckitt Benckiser (RB) was a new addition to the portfolio in the quarter, and contributed positively to performance. RB is a branded consumer goods company, focused on OTC healthcare and household cleaning products, with a portfolio of brands including Strepsils, Gaviscon, Durex, Enfamil, and Lysol. Longtime clients might have recognized the name, as RB featured prominently in the portfolios for several years in the past. Aside from great brands in interesting niches, RB has a very interesting culture that is entrepreneurial, lean, and performance oriented. We believe a recent internal split of the company into two separate units (Health, and Hygiene Home) will be beneficial in accentuating the advantages of this culture. We divested our position in Colruyt SA. Colruyt, a Belgian food retailer, has been an investment for over a decade, and in many ways exemplifies the type of business we look for: an understandable business model, demonstrably superior to its competition, conservatively-financed, economically resilient, and supported by an attractive corporate culture. It became a staple in our presentations and meetings with clients, with great anecdotes around its obsessive focus on low prices and cost-efficient operations. All the reasons for owning the company remain intact, but from an investment perspective we believe the risk-reward profile has become unfavourably skewed. Colruyt s success over many years has resulted in a market share of approximately 32% in Belgium, leaving little room for further gains (there are few examples globally of food retailers reaching and sustaining levels much higher than this). On the other hand, new competitors are entering the market, existing players are increasing competitive pressure, and there is a looming possibility of a big push into online/home delivery (where Colruyt is well placed to succeed, but at a cost). In our view, the risk-reward has become asymmetric, with limited potential for long-term growth and material potential for adverse outcomes. To repeat some comments from last quarter, we believe that high quality stocks, while expensive, are a little less expensive than they were in the recent past, and some names on our watch list have become closer to being actionable (or, in the case of RB, have already become actionable). So, while cash levels remain close to the upper range, we will keep our usual level of discipline and are hopeful of finding additional opportunities for deploying capital throughout the remainder of the year. NAMES ADDED Reckitt Benckiser Group plc (United Kingdom-Consumer Staples) NAMES REMOVED Etablissementen Franz Colruyt N.V. (Belgium-Consumer Staples) OUTLOOK Our portfolios are not positioned to reflect any one specific macro risk, theme, or outlook. We position our portfolios at a stock specific level, based on what valuations are telling us, relative to our long-term expectations and growth assumptions for each business. COMPOSITE AND BENCHMARK PERFORMANCE (CAD) AS AT JUNE 30, MONTHS 6 MONTHS 1 YEAR 2 YEARS 3 YEARS 4 YEARS 5 YEARS SINCE INCEPTION* Mackenzie Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained (Gross) 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 6.9% 8.3% 10.8% 12.5% 14.1% Mackenzie Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained (Net) 2.3% 2.1% 1.4% 5.9% 7.3% 9.8% 11.4% 13.1% MSCI World Total Return Index 3.9% 5.2% 12.7% 15.6% 10.4% 12.4% 15.0% 16.3% 1 Mackenzie Investments (the Firm ) has been managing Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained assets since September The Firm claims compliance with GIPS starting January 1, 2008 and has been independently verified for the period of January 1, 2008 to December 31, Returns for periods greater than 1 year have been annualized. *The composite inception date is October 1, 2012.

6 DISCLAIMER Mackenzie Financial Corporation is regulated as a Portfolio Manager in all provinces and territories in Canada by the relevant securities commissions in each jurisdiction. Additional information about Mackenzie Investments Corporation and Mackenzie Financial Corporation is available on the various securities commissions websites in the provinces and territories of Canada. IMPORTANT NOTES Investing involves risk. Any opinion expressed herein is as of June 30, 2018 and is subject to change without notice. The contents of this document are provided for illustrative and marketing purposes and do not constitute specific advice regarding your personal investment situation or provide specific individual advice about investment, insurance, financial, legal, accounting, tax or similar matters. Certain information contained in this document is obtained from third parties. Mackenzie Investments believes such information to be accurate and reliable as at the date hereof, however does not guarantee that it is accurate or complete or current at all times. The information provided is subject to change without notice and Mackenzie Investments cannot be held liable for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on the information contained in this document. No portion of this communication may be reproduced or redistributed without the express permission of Mackenzie Investments. Views expressed regarding a particular company, security, industry or market sector are the views of only that speaker/author as of the time expressed and do not necessarily represent the views of Mackenzie Investments or its affiliates. Any such views are subject to change at any time based upon markets and other conditions and Mackenzie Investments and its affiliates disclaim any responsibility to update such views. These views are not a recommendation to buy or sell and may not be relied on as investment advice and, because investment decisions are based on numerous factors, may not be relied on as an indication of trading intent on behalf of any client. Speculation or stated beliefs about future events, such as market and economic conditions, company or security performance, upcoming product offerings or other projections are forward-looking statements. These forward-looking statements represent the beliefs of the speaker/author and do not necessarily represent the views of Mackenzie Investments or its affiliates. Forward-looking statements are inherently subject to, among other things, risks, uncertainties and assumptions which could cause actual events, results, performance or prospects to differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forwardlooking statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, without limitation, general economic, political and market factors in North America and internationally, interest and foreign exchange rates, the volatility of global equity and capital markets, business competition, technological change, changes in government regulations, changes in tax laws, unexpected judicial or regulatory proceedings, catastrophic events and the ability of Mackenzie Investments and its affiliates to attract or retain key employees. The foregoing list of important risks, uncertainties and assumptions is not exhaustive. Please consider these and other factors carefully and not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. In addition, Mackenzie Investments and its affiliates manage a number of separate strategies and portfolio managers for those strategies may have differing views or any analysis with respect to a particular company, security or the economy than the views expressed herein. Mackenzie s Portfolio Analytics Group is responsible for conducting performance attribution. The group uses Factset Research Systems for conducting performance attribution based on daily holdings. The model uses a multi-currency attribution based on Brinson-Fachler Model. The model decomposes portfolio returns into currency, allocation, selection and interaction effects. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results. Information under Composite and Benchmark Performance (CAD) reflects the performance of the Mackenzie Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained Composite, and does not necessarily reflect the performance that any particular account investing in the same or similar securities may have had during the period. The performance of other accounts is likely to differ from the performance shown for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to: differences in market conditions, portfolio turnover and in the number, types, availability and diversity of securities that can be purchased; economies of scale, regulations and other factors applicable to the management of large separate accounts and mutual funds; client-imposed investment restrictions; the timing of client investments and withdrawals; the deduction of taxes; tax considerations; and other factors. Information presented under the headings Contributors to Performance, Detractors from Performance, Contributors, Detractors, Performance Attribution, Sector Attribution, Portfolio Activity, Names Added and Names Removed are made with specific reference to a representative account within the Composite. Gross performance results do not reflect the deduction of management fees and other expenses except for brokerage commissions and other trading expenses. If those fees and costs were reflected, results would be reduced. Including these fees and expenses would reduce the returns shown. Net performance results reflect the deduction of the maximum standard fee of 0.95% charged to institutional clients without taking into account breakpoints, calculated daily and invoiced quarterly, as well as the transaction costs and certain other fees and expenses, including certain taxes, described in the Investment Management Agreement. Certain clients could pay different fees which would result in different net performance returns. Net performance results also do not include the deduction of custodial fees, which will reduce the returns shown. Taxes have not been deducted. Both gross and net performance returns assume the reinvestment of dividends, interest, and realized and unrealized capital gains and losses. Index returns do not reflect transaction costs or the deduction of other fees and expenses and it is not possible to invest directly in an index. The Mackenzie Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained Composite contains fully discretionary, Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained accounts. New accounts are included in the Composite beginning with the first full month under management after they have been fully invested.

7 IMPORTANT NOTES (cont'd) COMPLIANCE STATEMENT Mackenzie Investments claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ). Mackenzie Investments has been independently verified for the periods January 1, 2008 through December 31, Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained Composite has been examined for the periods October 1, 2012 through December 31, The verification and performance examination reports are available upon request. FIRM OVERVIEW Mackenzie Financial Corporation ( Mackenzie Investments ) provides investment management and related services through multiple distribution channels. Assets under management as at June 30, 2018 were C$ billion. We provide our investment management expertise through mutual funds, pooled funds, segregated accounts, and separate accounts for retail and institutional investors. Mackenzie Investments is dedicated to generating consistently superior long-term investment returns for its clients. The Firm is a member of the IGM Financial Inc. (TSX:IGM) group of companies. On October 19th, 2017, the investment management functions of Investors Group and Mackenzie Investments joined together to form a single global investment management organization to support both companies resulting in the 2017 increase in total firm assets. As part of this new investment management organization, Investors Group Inc. became part of Mackenzie Investments in order to effectively serve both Investors Group and Mackenzie Investments clients. There has been no change of ownership impact to the two firm s mutual parent, IGM Financial. COMPOSITE DESCRIPTION The Global Large Cap Quality Growth Constrained composite seeks to provide long-term capital growth by investing in high quality, larger capitalization companies from anywhere in the world with a focus on maximizing risk-adjusted returns. This strategy differs from the Global Large Cap Quality Growth strategy in that cash weights will generally be limited to less than 10%. The composite was created on June 30, BENCHMARK DESCRIPTION The benchmark is the MSCI World Total Return Index, net of withholding taxes. The MSCI World Total Return Index is a free float adjusted, market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. It consists of 23 developed market country indices. REPORTING CURRENCY Valuations and composite performance are reported in Canadian dollars. The composite includes Canadian dollar portfolios. LIST OF COMPOSITES A complete list of composite descriptions is available to prospective clients upon request. Please contact Aaron Pittman at apittman@mackenzieinvestments.com. Mackenzie Financial Corporation All rights reserved /18 INVESTMENTS 180 Queen Street West, Toronto, Ontario M5V 3K1 T F E apittman@mackenzieinvestments.com mackenzieinvestments.com