Carl Nadwodny, CFA Chief Investment Officer 460 East Swedesford Rd, Suite 2010 Wayne, PA (484)

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1 Carl Nadwodny, CFA Chief Investment Officer 460 East Swedesford Rd, Suite 2010 Wayne, PA (484) Quarterly Financial Market Update January 1, 2018 The summary below is provided for educational purposes only. If you have any thoughts or would like to discuss any other matters, please feel free to contact me. Running of the Bulls The bulls took charge the day after election day, keeping the bears on the defensive throughout A GOP that controlled all three branches of government ignited early optimism among investors, who had expected easy passage of economic-friendly policies. But instead, gridlock kept investors on pins and needles until year-end, when Congress enacted a dramatic cut in the corporate tax rate and modestly shaved tax brackets for individuals. Index 4 th Qtr 2017 Return %* 2017 YTD Return %** DJIA NASDAQ Composite S&P 500 Index FTSE Developed ex North America Index 4 Bond Yields Yield* - % a/o Dec 29, 2017 Yield - % a/o Dec 30, month T-bill year Treasury year Treasury year Treasury Commodities Dec 29 Price, Monthly Change* Year end 2016 Oil per barrel 5 $ $53.72 Gold per ounce 6 $1, $1, Sources: U.S. Treasury, MarketWatch, St. Louis Federal Reserve, CNBC *Quarterly: September 29, 2017 December 29, 2017 ** YTD: December 30, 2016 December 29, 2017

2 Whatever your thoughts are about the president, investors are bipartisan. The long-term focus is on the economy and profits, i.e. the fundamentals. Investors really don t care which party supports investorfriendly policies. Yes, there are important issues beyond the markets, and elections have consequences. But purely through the narrow prism of the market, it s the economic fundamentals that matter. For much of the year, improving economic fundamentals fueled bullish sentiment, sparking 71 closing daily highs for the Dow a record (MarketWatch). Let s review 1. Profit growth accelerated (Thomson Reuters). 2. A synchronized global expansion created additional tailwinds for corporate profits. 3. Global growth has accelerated, as noted by the IMF s October outlook. 4. Consumer confidence (the Conference Board) hit its best reading since late Small business confidence recorded its second-best reading in over 30 years (NFIB). 6. The Unemployment Rate fell to 4.1% (U.S. BLS). 7. Gross Domestic Product in the U.S. recorded two-straight quarters above 3.0% (U.S. BEA). 8. Inflation in the U.S. remains low (Consumer Price Index U.S. BLS). 9. U.S. interest rates remain low, and are currently expected to rise gradually. 10. Leading indicators put odds on a near-term recession at a low level. Put another way, it s the perfect receipt for last year s impressive advance. One more interesting aspect of last year s rally: there was little volatility. The biggest dip of the year for the S&P 500 totaled 2.8%, the smallest since 1995 s 2.5% (LPL Research). Since 1950, the average intrayear pullback has been 13.6%. It s a timely reminder that a modest pullback in 2018 can t be ruled out. A look ahead The economic outlook heading into 2018 hasn t been this upbeat in years, as the U.S economy finished 2017 with momentum. Moreover, the synchronized upturn in global growth not only aids the U.S. economy, it has been a big support for earnings of U.S. multinationals, according to FactSet Research. A reduction in the corporate tax rate is set to support earnings longer term, but it s unclear how much has been priced in by investors.

3 I m never one to throw caution to the wind and perspective is in order. Figure 1 illustrates annual winning streaks for the broad-based S&P 500 Index. We re one year away from tying the record for consecutive annual advances going back to 1947 see Figure 1. Annual S&P 500 Index Winning Streaks Back to 1947 Includes dividends reinvested Fig Data Source: New York School of Business Number of Years Last Date: Figure 2 offers another comparison. It highlights the six longest bull markets since WWII and their respective advances. Performance of Longest Bull Markets Since WWII 450% Fig % 350% 300% Jun 49 - Aug 56 Oct 74 - Nov 80 Aug 82 - Aug 87 Oct 90 - Mar 00 Oct 02 - Oct 07 Mar 09 - today 250% 200% 150% 100% Current bull market 50% 0% Trading Days Data Source: Yahoo Finance, St. Louis Federal Reserve, S&P Capital IQ Last Date:

4 The current bull market is the second longest in both longevity and performance. By itself, the second longest bull market since WWII creates an air of caution, but bull markets don t die of old age or enter a danger zone based only on past performance. The end of a bull market has historically correlated with the onset of a recession. Since the late 1960s, only one bear market the 1987 Crash did not align itself with a recession see Figure 3. S & P I N D E X LO G A R I T H M I C S C A L E Fig , % -57% % -14% -28% -36% -22% -48% -17% -27% -34% -20% 30 1/2/1957 1/2/1964 1/2/1971 1/2/1978 1/2/1985 1/2/1992 1/2/1999 1/2/2006 1/2/2013 Data Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, NBER Shaded areas mark recessions Last Date: Still, any number of events not directly tied to the economic fundamentals could spark a bout of volatility. Might we see a selloff early in the new year? It s possible, if investors book 2017 stock profits in tax year Following 2013 s outsized 30% gain in the S&P 500 (St. Louis Federal Reserve), shares went sideways in the first three weeks of 2014, then slid 6% over the next couple of weeks. Yet, the year finished higher. Bigger concerns would surround the fundamentals. If inflation were to unexpectedly heat up, we could see a more aggressive Federal Reserve, one that deviates from its currently stated path of gradual rate increases. Odds of an unexpected jump in inflation are low, but keep an eye on oil prices, which have topped $60 per barrel for the first time since June 2015 (St. Louis Federal Reserve). However, a Fed that turns more aggressive in response to a spurt in economic growth is less of a concern, in my view, since a robust economy would lend added support to corporate profits. Of course, any unexpected economic slowdown would likely create a stiffer headwind for earnings and stocks.

5 For those who enjoy looking at probabilities, a 20%+ advance in the S&P 500 in one year does not necessarily mean we ll see a pullback the following year. Excluding 2017 (up 21.83% including dividends reinvested S&P Dow Jones Indices), there have been 24 years in which the S&P 500 s annual performance has exceeded 20% (including dividends reinvested, New York School of Business S&P 500 data). The following year saw the S&P 500 rise 18 times and decline five times. For long-term investors, it boils down to an investment plan that is rooted in a number of factors, including the economic fundamentals. Shorter term, the fundamentals may not always be positive. But discipline, patience, and investment decisions that don t spring from an emotional response to disconcerting events have historically been the most efficient path to one s goals.

6 DISCLOSURE: It is important that you do not use this to request or authorize the purchase or sale of any security or commodity, or to request any other transactions. Any such request, orders or instructions will not be accepted and will not be processed. All items discussed in this report are for informational purposes only, are not advice of any kind, and are not intended as a solicitation to buy, hold, or sell any securities. Nothing contained herein constitutes tax, legal, insurance, or investment advice. Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No strategy can assure success or protects against loss. Past performance is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk. Please note that rebalancing investments may cause investors to incur transaction costs and, when rebalancing a non-retirement account, taxable events will be created that may increase your tax liability. Rebalancing a portfolio cannot assure a profit or protect against a loss in any given market environment. Equity investments tend to be volatile and do not involve guarantees associated with return of amount of invested. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors. Non-U.S. securities markets involve possibly greater risk of political instability and greater currency risk and volatility. These risks can be accentuated in emerging markets. Commodities investments are speculative and involve special risks related to weather and international political and economic developments. U.S. Treasury bonds and Treasury bills are guaranteed by the U.S. government and, if held to maturity, offer a fixed rate of return and guaranteed principal value. U.S. government bonds are issued and guaranteed as to the timely payment of principal and interest by the federal government. Treasury bills are certificates reflecting short-term (less than one year) obligations of the U.S. government. Beta measures a security s or portfolio s volatility relative to its benchmark. A beta greater than 1 suggests the security or portfolio has been historically more volatile than its benchmark. A beta less than 1 suggests the security or portfolio has historically been less volatile than its benchmark. Past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Different investments involve different degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any investment, security, commodity or investment strategy that is referenced will be profitable or be suitable for your portfolio. The information has been obtained from sources considered to be reliable, but we do not guarantee that the foregoing material is accurate or complete. The information contained in this report does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Any information is not a complete summary or statement of all available data necessary for making an investment decision and does not constitute a recommendation. Before making any investments or making any type of investment decision, please consult with Convergent Financial Strategies and determine how a security may fit into your investment portfolio, how a decision may affect your financial position and how it may impact your financial goals. All opinions are subject to change without notice in response to changing market and/or economic conditions. 1 The Dow Jones Industrials Average is an unmanaged index of 30 major companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 2 The NASDAQ Composite is an unmanaged index of companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 3 The S&P 500 Index is an unmanaged index of 500 larger companies which cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 4 The FTSE Developed ex North America Index is an unmanaged index of large and mid-cap stocks providing coverage of developed markets, excluding the US and Canada. It cannot be invested into directly. Past performance does not guarantee future results. 5 New York Mercantile Exchange front-month contract; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results. 6 London Bullion Market Association; gold fixing pricing; Prices can and do vary; past performance does not guarantee future results. Copyright 2017 Financial Jumble, LLC All rights reserved.