Economic and Investment Outlook 4 th Quarter 2013

Transcription

1 Economic and Investment Outlook 4 th Quarter 2013

2 Table Of Contents Government 101: Shutdown & Debt Ceiling Increases Markets In Review Stocks And The Economy Potential Roadblocks Overall Observations Portfolio Construction Appendix 2

3 Government 101: Shutdown & Debt Ceiling Increases It s like Déjà vu all over again. -Yogi Berra, Famous Market Prognosticator Source Baseball Digest, front cover, September 1956 issue. 3

4 Government 101: Shutdowns Since the Modern Congressional Budgeting Process was implemented (1976), there have been 17 government shutdowns (excluding 2013). Not all shutdowns are created equal. After several opinions by Benjamin Civiletti in 1980 and 1981 (the Attorney General at that time), failure to reach a budget agreement didn t actually shut down the government Shutdown Breakdown: President Ford: 1 Shutdown President Carter: 5 Shutdowns President Reagan: 8 Shutdowns President Bush: 1 Shutdown President Clinton: 2 Shutdowns Source Washington Post, Government Shutdowns by Dylan Matthews, 9/25/2013 Not as rare as we have been led to believe. 4

5 Government 101: Debt Ceiling Increases Since 1944 the debt ceiling has been increased 94 times. Republican presidents have raised it 54 times; Democratic presidents have raised it 40 times. Average percentage increase: Republican 5.6% increase Democrat 16.8% increase Of the last 53 debt limit increases, 27 have been accompanied with additional legislative action Source BillMoyers.com, Partisan History of the Debt Ceiling by John Light, 9/23/2013 Debt ceiling debates are not rare and often are used as leverage for negotiation of legislative action this is Bipartisan. What did the U.S. Treasury prices do during this most recent debate? 5

6 Latest Agreement Government funded through January 15 th Debt limit raised through February 7 th House and Senate directed to hold talks and reach a 10 year budget accord by December 13 th Source New York Times, Republicans Back Down, Ending Crisis Over Shutdown and Debt Limit by Michael Shear, 10/17/2013 It s like Déjà vu all over again. -Yogi Berra, Famous Market Prognosticator Source Baseball Digest, front cover, September 1956 issue. 6

7 Markets In Review 7

8 Equity Performance: YTD and 3 rd Quarter Percentage Return YTD rd Quarter DJIA S&P 500 NASDAQ R1000 Growth R1000 Value R2000 Growth R2000 Value MSCI EAFE (Net) MSCI Emerging Markets (Net) Source Zephyr StyleADVISOR 8

9 Fixed Income Performance: YTD and 3 rd Quarter Percentage Return YTD rd Quarter Yr Treasury 7-Yr Muni Intermediate G/C TIPS High Yield Convertibles Source Zephyr StyleADVISOR 9

10 Stocks And The Economy 10

11 The Equity Market Source Above:Russell Investment Group, Standard & Poor s FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Below: Morningstar Direct Data are as of 9/30/2013 How do we feel about the Equity markets now? Return since 10/08/2007: +3.55% (annualized) Return since 03/09/2009: % (annualized) 11

12 Valuation Valuations remain reasonable on an absolute basis and inexpensive on a relative basis. 12

13 Valuation Developed Markets 13

14 Valuation Emerging Markets 14

15 Earnings 16 x 120 S&P Price Target 1920? 14% Increase Earnings growth remains positive albeit slowing. 15

16 The Economy - GDP (through recovery and well into expansion) The Economy continues to muddle along. GDP Growth estimates remain in the 2-2.5% range. 16

17 Why Positive GDP Cyclical Sectors The most volatile sectors of the Economy (those responsible for causing recessions and recoveries) remain well below peak levels. 17

18 Why Positive GDP Housing Despite rising rates, the U.S. housing market remains on an upswing. 18

19 Why Positive GDP The Consumer U.S. consumer remains incredibly resilient. Falling gas prices should boost the Consumer. 19

20 Why Positive GDP Employment Unemployment rate remains stubbornly high, but we continue to produce jobs. Most recent (10/22/13) employment numbers: 148,000 new jobs, 7.2% unemployment rate. 20

21 The Fed And The Money Supply Tapering has been pushed back to What will Yellen s Fed do? 21

22 The U.S. Doesn t Make Anything Anymore? Manufacturing Renaissance Why: Energy Natural Gas Prices* (U.S. $4, EU $13, Asia $17) Productivity Record High *MBTU (One Million British Thermal Units) 22

23 The U.S. Doesn t Make Anything Anymore - Continued Industries that should benefit from Energy Boom: Cement Steel Pipe Makers Truck Manufacturers Engine Manufacturers Construction Machinery Mining Equipment Industrial Technology Cranes Rail Cars Rail Tracks Railroads Low/Middle Income Retail Homebuilders Regional Banks & Brokers Regional Money Managers Specialty Clothing Manufacturers Chemicals Source Cornerstone Macro, LP Our new favorite Emerging Market Middle America. -Cornerstone Macro, LP 23

24 Mutual Fund Flows We are starting to see positive equity flows. This could just be the beginning. 24

25 International (European) The positive trend continues from last quarter. 25

26 Potential Roadblocks 26

27 Potential Landmines Bonds Washington Shiller P/E 27

28 Bond Market Details Know what you own and why you own it. Long dated high quality paper remains expensive. 28

29 Bonds Are Expensive Real yields still well below historic averages. 29

30 Washington I have come to the conclusion that one useless man is called a disgrace; two useless men is called a law firm; and three or more become a Congress! - John Adams (as portrayed in the 1969 musical: 1776) Washington dysfunction is a significant risk to the economy. They must agree upon comprehensive budget reform. Both parties are to blame. 30

31 Shiller P/E Source: Standard & Poor s, FactSet, Robert Shiller Data, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Cyclically adjusted P/E uses as reported earnings thorughout. * Latest reflects data as of 3/31/2013. Shiller uses Cyclically Adjusted Price / Earnings (CAPE). Adjust for normalized margins, inflation rates, interest rates, etc. Margins are 70% higher than long-term averages. Shiller P/E portends only a 3.5% annualized return in equities for next 10 years. 31

32 Revenue Growth Margins are at historic highs. We need some revenue growth to keep the positive EPS story going. 32

33 Overall Observations 33

34 Overall Observations Domestic Equities appear fairly valued. International / Emerging Markets appear inexpensive. The Economy continues to grind higher. Tapering is off the table in the near-term. Bonds (long-dated) remain historically expensive. 34

35 Portfolio Construction 35

36 Portfolio Construction Equity Strategy Manage portfolio risk Maintain diversification across spectrum of markets (bias towards growth) Position for opportunity Lower commitment to high dividend payers and increase commitment to dividend growers Exposure to global commerce Maintain exposure to developed and emerging international markets Fixed Income Strategy Protect portfolio for unforeseen events Reduce core exposure in high quality interest rate sensitive bonds from 50% to 40% of portfolio Position for enhanced return Increase exposure to credit cycle Take advantage of volatility Increase exposure to flexible managers Alternative Strategy Eliminate the hedge investment strategies with the anticipation of re-introducing at higher equity valuations 36

37 Asset Class Returns 37

38 Appendix 38

39 Sources JP Morgan Asset Management Guide to the Markets 4 th Quarter 2013 Fisher Investments Robert Schiller Zephyr StyleADVISOR Morningstar Direct Cornerstone Macro Washington Post Government Shutdowns by Dylan Matthews, 9/25/2013 NY Times Republicans Back Down, Ending Crisis Over Shutdown and Debt Limit by Michael Shear, 10/17/2013 BillMoyers.com Partisan History of the Debt Ceiling by John Light, 9/23/

40 Index Definitions 40

41 J.P. Morgan Asset Management Disclosures This document is intended solely to report on various investment views held by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Opinions, estimates, forecasts and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information provided here is reliable but should not be assumed to be accurate or complete. The views and strategies described may not be suitable for all investors. References to specific securities, asset classes and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Please note that investments in foreign markets are subject to special currency, political and economic risks. The price of equity securities may rise or fall because of changes in the broad market or changes in a company s financial condition, sometimes rapidly or unpredictably. These price movements may result from factors affecting individual companies, sectors or industries selected for the Fund s portfolio or the securities market as a whole, such as changes in economic or political conditions. Equity securities are subject to stock market risk, meaning that stock prices in general (or in particular, the prices of the types of securities in which a fund invests) may decline over short or extended periods of time. When the value of a fund s securities goes down, an investment in a fund decreases in value. The Fund may invest in derivatives, which may be riskier than other types of investments because they may be more sensitive to changes in economic or market conditions than other types of investments and could result in losses that significantly exceed the Fund s original investment. Many derivatives create leverage, thereby causing the Fund to be more volatile than it would be if it had not used derivatives. The S&P 500 Index is a capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of 500 large-capitalization domestic stocks representing all major industries. All indexes are unmanaged and an individual cannot invest directly in an index. Index returns do not include fees or expenses. J.P. Morgan Asset Management is the marketing name for the asset management businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. Those businesses include, but are not limited to, J.P. Morgan Investment Management Inc., Security Capital Research & Management Incorporated and J.P. Morgan Alternative Asset Management, Inc. JPMorgan Chase & Co.,

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