Economic Geography of Carbon Market Trading

Transcription

1 Economic Geography of Carbon Market Trading Eric R. W. Knight D. Phil. Candidate Department of Geography and the Environment University of Oxford 1

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3 Modelling E in corporate finance REGULATED UN-REGULATED QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE Modelling E in corporate finance Phase I of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme REGULATED UN-REGULATED QUANTITATIVE QUALITATIVE Tonnes of CO2e emitted above free allocation 3

4 Do equity investors price environmental (carbon) performance in stock price of electricity utilities? DATA Spot price (Powernext) & future price (ECX) data from Phase I of EU ETS: 22 April 2005 to 30 June 2006 Daily stock price of electricity generation firms: UK, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Greece. Control data: oil, gas, coal, exchange rate, market indices Collaboration with HSBC Investment Bank Climate Change Centre for Excellence 4

5 ASSUMPTIONS Efficient market hypothesis: capital markets are efficient Carbon market established in which: Market structures Greece Rest of Europe Not 100% free allowances Present vs future expectations Comparison between technologies HYPOTHESIS Financial implication of carbon performance depends on: 1. Economic geography (market/regulatory setting) 2. Technology (carbon intensity of energy generation) 5

6 METHODOLOGY MODEL 1: OLS returns model Rt = α + δ1rmarkett + δ2rspot t + δ3rfuture t + δ4rgas t + δ5roil t + δ6rcoal t + εt MODEL 2: Co-integration model Et Et = α + βct + εt = α + βft + εt Electricity stock returns in relation to carbon price 22 April 2005 and 30 June 2007 PPC EDF British Energy 6

7 PPC CONCLUSIONS We can now answer the following: 1. Can better environmental performance result in better financial performance? Yes. Carbon performance (technology) does effect your financial performance as refected in the stock price out- performance of low carbon intensive firms 2. Does geography effect share price of electricity utilities? Yes. Firms in market setting with low cost pass through are heavily discounted by investors 7

8 IMPLICATIONS For Policy makers: Design of a US or global carbon market For business: Invest in clean energy technology Get ahead of the (regulatory) curve Future Research Relationship between unregulated environmental variables (e.g. access to water) and financial performance? Impediments to new clean technology innovation: the role of venture capital RELATED PAPERS (2008) What Role for Public Finance in International Climate Change Mitigation igation, OECD Roundtable for Sustainable Development,, SG/SD/RT(2008)3 (with Richard Doornbosch). (2008) 'Legal issues and contractual solutions' in Climate Change and Forests, Emerging Policy and Market Solutions. Edited by Streck,, C., O'Sullivan, R., Janson,, S. and Tarasofsky,, R., Brookings Institute Press and Chatham House (with Wilder, M., Miller, M.) (2009) Implications of the UK Companies Act 2006 for institutional investors and the corporate social responsibility movement, University of Pennsylvania Journal of Business Law (with Gordon L. Clark) (2009) Examining the Gatekeepers of Pension Fund Capitalism: the integration of environment, social and governance considerations in the financial advice of investment consultants to global pension funds, Centre for Employment Work and Finance Working Paper. Thank you Contact Details: E: eric.knight@magd.ox.ac.uk M:

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