Investment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates

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1 Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) , July 5, 2016: Revised Random Gleanings Over a Holiday Weekend After an Unusual Week Well, you can only control what you can control. I think whatever your view of the world is, you have to invest. You can t put the money in the mattress and in this day and age of low interest rates, you can t put it in the money market fund or a bank CD, so invest, you must. Now, you might want to invest regularly. For people that are investing regularly, I would say for god s sake don t stop investing now. I know the market is not doing much this year, just about where it started a little bit down, but not much and bond yields are still very low, actually lower than they were at the beginning of the year, but you have to put your money to work. The alternative is I mean, the only way to guarantee you will have nothing at retirement is to invest nothing along the way. So, you have to take your chances.... John Bogle As I read that quote from John Bogle I was reminded of another quote I used a few weeks ago from my friend Frederick Shad Rowe, proprietor of Greenbrier Partners the esteemed Dallas-based money management firm. To wit (as paraphrased): Looking at each 20-year period on a rolling basis over the past 50 years, that is, we ll look at 20 years, starting in 1965, then 20 years starting in 1966, and so on, returns on investment in the S&P 500 stock index for each period have fluctuated between 8% and 12% [per year]. Each period contained some bad years, but there were always more good years and they outweighed the bad results for every 20-year stretch. While the actuarially assumed rate of return for most public pension systems is approximately 7.5%, the stock market has managed to climb the proverbial wall of worry and offer superior returns, compared to virtually all available alternatives if you stayed fully invested in the index for the full 20 years. Here is a prediction. A gigantic market move to the upside is coming, as investment committees assess their costs and reach the conclusion that the stock market is their best and only hope to meet their obligations. Now let s reflect on a few quips we ve heard this year. Somewhere near the February lows a couple of bulge-bracket investment banks told investors to dramatically reduce their exposure to stocks; and one foreign-based investment bank actually said to sell everything. Certainly such advice is at odds with Shad s wisdom. While there are many other examples of such disingenuous market advice, fast forward to the Friday morning following the Brexit vote. Hereto, in their rush to instantly inform, many pundits gave disingenuous and even wrong advice. Our advice was to take a deep breath and do nothing that Friday. Better to analyze things over the weekend, with clearer thoughts hopefully arriving Monday morning. Comes Monday and whispers of a crash were circling Wall Street, and as we suggested some stocks for your buy lists, stocks slid. To allay those crash fears we noted that nowhere in our exhaustive studies has there ever been a crash with the S&P 500 so close to all-time highs. Turning Tuesday (+269 points) arrived on time followed by Wednesday s win (+284) making the two day two-step a back-to-back 90% Upside Volume skein, which is a pretty bullish occurrence, but left the equity markets overbought in the short term. That s why we wrote in Thursday s Morning Tack that a pause/pullback was likely at hand, but the upside should still be favored. Well, that proved to be disingenuous advice because the D-J Industrials rallied another 285 points that day. The pause finally arrived on Friday (+19), which brings us to today. International Headquarters: The Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

2 While Andrew Adams and I attempt to call the short-term moves in the various markets, we have never wavered in the belief the equity markets remain in a secular bull market that has years left to run. Last week CNBC asked me, in a preappearance interview, to list some reason why I am bullish. Here the list: 1. The Brexit vote is not all that impactful for the U.S. since ~70% of U.S. companies revenues are domestic. 2. Brexit may not happen. 3. S&P s earnings estimate for 2017 is $ meaning at the recent low (1991) the forward P/E was 14.8x. 4. The Global Earnings Revision Ratio has improved for the fourth straight month (analysts are raising earnings estimates). 5. Interest rates are going to stay low for longer than most expect. 6. The Advance/Decline line during the pullback acted great. 7. Unlike in a financial crisis, the funding markets didn t show any signs of stress (credit spreads). 8. The S&P 500 recaptured its 20-month moving average quickly (read: bullish). 9. As Jim Paulsen (Wells Capital) states, It s not like the U.K. is going to remove itself from the world economy and not trade with anyone. Once the emotion of this event fades, investors may get back to the fundamentals, which at least in the U.S. are looking better. Or this from Guardian Capital s Steve Bates, Capitalism is a resilient and flexible organism and companies adapt quickly to new circumstances. This is why economies usually muddle through crises even in the absence of good leadership. Some of the other gleanings from a pretty unusual week include: 1. Forget Brexit, the U.K. will emerge with a good trade, just like Switzerland. 2. Share of world GDP in 2015: England 3.9%, Germany 4.6%, France 3.3%, U.S. 24.4%. 3. Britain s credit downgrade by S&P was the first sovereign downgrade from AAA by two notches ever. 4. Brexit is giving the EU the potential to morph the continent s countries into a super-state. 5. Mexico urges North America toward integration after Brexit. 6. Judge Posner sees no value in the U.S. constitution because our forefathers couldn t have foreseen today. 7. Gateway Pundit report states latest Reuters poll shows 52% of respondents were Democrats and 35% Republicans. 8. Restaurant visit growth has stalled the last three months. 9. Crude oil looks like it has made a double-bottom like it did last January/February (see chart on page 3). 10. Norway oil workers avoid a strike. 11. Does the failed auction of 1109-carat diamond signal the top in tangible assets? 12. The move to eliminate the U.S. $100 bill fails. 13. Amazon will give shoppers another chance at Black Friday on July To be continued. The call for this week: There is plenty of internal energy for an upside breakout to new all-time highs. Indeed, the Brexit decline has not changed our view that the February lows represented a major bottom, sinking the footings for a move to new all-time highs. Last week we experienced not only back-to-back 90% Upside Volume days, but back-to-back buying climaxes where 80%+ of issues traded advanced on the day. This is a rare event and last happened in December 2011 and January International Headquarters: The Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

3 2012 right before the S&P 500 (SPX/ ) gained ~24% (a tip of the hat to First Republic s Jon Bull). Moreover, according to Fundstrat s Thomas Lee (as paraphrased): The S&P 500 fell 5% in two days. Of the 50 times that has happened since 1940, 16 occurred when the S&P 500 was above either its 50-day or 200-day moving average like now (in a bull trend), the median returns [going forward] have been impressive. Not to be outdone, last Thursday my friend Jason Goepfert wrote, Stocks jumped again, triggering the 3rd large up day in a row. Back-to-back-to-back gains of 1% have been rare, especially coming out of a multi-month low. When it has done so, the S&P 500 has been higher three months later every time, though the sample size is small. Well, the anticipated pause arrived on Friday and at 5:30 a.m. today it looks like the pullback is here with the preopening S&P 500 futures off about 12-points as the burgeoning Italian banking crisis takes center stage. We wrote last week that not only is it fears that Italy s banking problems will spread to other countries, but that Italy is the linchpin for the EU. With an Italian referendum looming, if Italy pulls a Brexit the EU is in trouble. Nevertheless, we remain bullish. Source: Bloomberg. International Headquarters: The Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

4 Important Investor Disclosures & Associates (RJA) is a FINRA member firm and is responsible for the preparation and distribution of research created in the United States. & Associates is located at The Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716, (727) Non-U.S. affiliates, which are not FINRA member firms, include the following entities that are responsible for the creation and distribution of research in their respective areas: in Canada, Ltd. (RJL), Suite 2100, 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604) ; in Latin America, Argentina S.A., San Martin 344, 22nd Floor, Buenos Aires, C10004AAH, Argentina, ; in Europe, Euro Equities SAS (also trading as International), 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, , and Financial International Ltd., Broadwalk House, 5 Appold Street, London, England EC2A 2AG, This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The securities discussed in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For clients in the United States: Any foreign securities discussed in this report are generally not eligible for sale in the U.S. unless they are listed on a U.S. exchange. This report is being provided to you for informational purposes only and does not represent a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security in any state where such a solicitation would be illegal. Investing in securities of issuers organized outside of the U.S., including ADRs, may entail certain risks. 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Persons within the family of companies may have information that is not available to the contributors of the information contained in this publication., including affiliates and employees, may execute transactions in the securities listed in this publication that may not be consistent with the ratings appearing in this publication. ( RJ ) research reports are disseminated and available to RJ s retail and institutional clients simultaneously via electronic publication to RJ's internal proprietary websites (RJ Investor Access & RJ Capital Markets). Not all research reports are directly distributed to clients or third-party aggregators. Certain research reports may only be disseminated on RJ's internal proprietary websites; however such research reports will not contain estimates or changes to earnings forecasts, target price, valuation, or investment or suitability rating. Individual Research Analysts may also opt to circulate published research to one or more clients electronically. This electronic communication distribution is discretionary and is done only after the research has been publically disseminated via RJ s internal proprietary websites. The level and types of communications provided by Research Analysts to clients may vary depending on various factors including, but not limited to, the client s individual preference as to the frequency and manner of receiving communications from Research Analysts. For research reports, models, or other data available on a particular security, please contact your RJ Sales Representative or visit RJ Investor Access or RJ Capital Markets. Additional information is available on request. Simple Moving Average (SMA) - A simple, or arithmetic, moving average is calculated by adding the closing price of the security for a number of time periods and then dividing this total by the number of time periods. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) - A type of moving average that is similar to a simple moving average, except that more weight is given to the latest data. Relative Strength Index (RSI) - The Relative Strength Index is a technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. International securities involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small-cap stocks generally involve greater risks. Dividends are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds and exchange traded funds. The prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing. International Headquarters: The Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

5 releasable resear ch For clients in the United Kingdom: For clients of & Associates (London Branch) and Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. For clients of Investment Services, Ltd.: This report is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients. For purposes of the Financial Conduct Authority requirements, this research report is classified as independent with respect to conflict of interest management. RJA, RJFI, and Investment Services, Ltd. are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For clients in France: This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in Code Monétaire et Financier and Règlement Général de l Autorité des Marchés Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. For clients of Euro Equities: Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. For institutional clients in the European Economic Area (EEA) outside of the United Kingdom: This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. For Canadian clients: This report is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian analyst has contributed to the content of the report. In the case where there is Canadian analyst contribution, the report meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements. Proprietary Rights Notice: By accepting a copy of this report, you acknowledge and agree as follows: This report is provided to clients of only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This is RJA client This report and its contents are the property of and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec.501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works. International Headquarters: The Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida

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