Douglas Rowat, Equity Specialist July 19, Process and Methodology. S&P/TSX Comp: Technical Data S&P/TSX Comp Canadian Volatility

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1 Technically Speaking Douglas Rowat, Equity Specialist July 19, 2013 Inside This Issue Process and Methodology... 1 Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, $32.38): Sleeping Giant... 2 Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, $44.29): Sleeping Giant Part II... 2 Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, $57.01): Hitting the Right Key... 3 Pengrowth Energy (PGF-T, $6.01): Pen is Mightier than the 200-day Moving Average. 3 Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators... 4 Updates... 5 Previously Highlighted Stocks... 6 Glossary... 7 Process and Methodology Our stock universe will be restricted to S&P/TSX Composite members. Technical outlooks for various commodities may occasionally be included. Breakouts or breakdowns from well-established uptrends or downtrends will be our focus. We will always look for confirmation of the expected move by examining either the RSI or the MACD, or both. Volume trends and moving averages may also be observed for momentum and trend confirmation. Traditional technical chart patterns (head-and-shoulders tops and bottoms, ascending and descending triangles, etc.) will be highlighted when applicable. Support and resistance levels will always be identified. A short- to medium-term timeframe is targeted for completion of technical patterns (3-6 months), but if the move is expected to take longer this will be identified also. Candlestick pricing will always be used and candlestick patterns will be examined to confirm/indicate trends. Relative stock performance vs the S&P/TSX Composite will be examined to indicate the potential for stock outperformance of the broader market. Highlighted stocks will be revisited to update investors on whether the expected technical move has succeeded or failed. In short, these ideas will be consistently monitored. S&P/TSX Comp: Technical Data S&P/TSX Comp Canadian Volatility Current level 12, wk high 12, wk low 11,416.5 Total return 1 mth (%) 3.2 Total return 3 mths (%) 5.5 Total return 1 yr (%) 11.7 # weekly advancers # weekly decliners 39.0 % new 52-wk highs 9.0 % new 52-wk lows 0.0 % new 4-wk highs 29.9 % new 4-wk lows 0.9 % above 200-day MA (%) 57.3 % above 50-day MA (%) 60.3 % MACD buy signal past 10 days 12.8 % MACD sell signal past 10 days 7.7 New 52-Week Highs % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 200-Day MA % of S&P/TSX Comp Above 50-Day MA Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced July 18, 2013 Please read disclosure/risk information in Appendix A. Raymond James Ltd King St W. Toronto ON Canada M5H 3Y West Georgia Street Vancouver BC Canada V6C 3L2.

2 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 2 of 8 Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE-T, $32.38): Sleeping Giant Cenovus Energy (CVE-T) has been knocking up against tough trendline resistance since September It has finally cleared the down trendline rallying off a double-bottom formation. All major moving averages have also been cleared to the upside including the 200-day MA. An uptrending MACD and RSI (second and third panels) confirm the upside momentum. An upside move to next resistance at $35.84 may now be possible. A break below the trendline may end the rally. Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO-T, $44.29): Sleeping Giant Part II Similar to Cenovus above, Imperial Oil (IMO-T) has broken up through difficult resistance. All major moving averages have also been cleared to the upside including the 200-day MA. An uptrending MACD and RSI (second and third panels) confirm the upside momentum. Upside is indicated to next resistance at $ Failure to hold support at $38.72 likely ends the rally.

3 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 3 of 8 Keyera Corp. (KEY-T, $57.01): Hitting the Right Key Keyera (KEY-T) is bouncing off support at the 200-day MA. The last time the MACD trended deeply negative and crossed up through the centerline (circled, third panel) a significant rally ensued. Heavier-than-normal volume also occurred near the bottom similar to what we re seeing now. A retest of previous highs near $65.00 may now be possible. A move below the trendline would be bearish. Pengrowth Energy (PGF-T, $6.01): Pen is Mightier than the 200-day Moving Average After drifting well below the 200-day MA for much of the past two years and trading at credit-crisis lows, Pengrowth Energy (PGF-T) challenged, then finally overcame this resistance. The breakaway gap on higher volume is also bullish as is the 50-day MA crossover. A long-uptrending MACD (third panel) combined with its move into positive territory lends evidence that the upside could continue. Next resistance lies at $7.20, but beyond this a test of the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $8.95 is possible. A move back down below the 200-day MA would be bearish.

4 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 4 of 8 Raymond James Ltd. Guided Portfolios: Technical Indicators Total Return (%) Price Above Moving Average MACD Overall Company Name Sym Price 1 Mo. 3 Mo. 1 Yr. 200-Day 50-Day +/- Score Canadian Growth Agrium Inc AGU $ N N Bombardier Inc BBD/B $ Y Y Cineplex Inc CGX $ Y Y Cameco Corp CCO $ Y Y Canadian Natural Resources Ltd CNQ $ Y Y Canadian Tire Corp Ltd CTC/A $ Y Y Detour Gold Corp DGC $ N N First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM $ N N Linamar Corp LNR $ Y Y Open Text Corp OTC $ Y N Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc POT $ N N Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp PRE $ N N Sun Life Financial Inc SLF $ Y Y Toronto-Dominion Bank/The TD $ Y Y Vermilion Energy Inc VET $ Y Y Whitecap Resources Inc WCP $ Y Y Yamana Gold Inc YRI $ N N Canadian Dividend Plus+ Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp AQN $ N N AltaGas Ltd ALA $ Y N Bank of Nova Scotia BNS $ Y N BCE Inc BCE $ N N Canadian Apartment Properties REIT CAR-U $ N N Cenovus Energy Inc CVE $ Y Y Corus Entertainment Inc CJR/B $ Y Y Enbridge Inc ENB $ Y Y Fortis Inc/Canada FTS $ N N Inter Pipeline Fund IPL-U $ N N North West Co Inc/The NWC $ Y N Royal Bank of Canada RY $ Y Y Shoppers Drug Mart Corp SC $ Y Y TELUS Corp T $ N N Global Equity Apple Inc AAPL $ N Y Aflac Inc AFL $ Y Y Bank of America Corp BAC $ Y Y BioMed Realty Trust Inc BMR $ Y Y Bunge Ltd BG $ Y Y BNP Paribas SA BNPQY $ Y Y Cummins Inc CMI $ Y Y Deere & Co DE $ N N DR Horton Inc DHI $ N N Delphi Automotive PLC DLPH $ Y Y General Electric Co GE $ Y Y Linear Technology Corp LLTC $ Y Y Eli Lilly & Co LLY $ N N Merck & Co Inc MRK $ Y Y NXP Semiconductor NV NXPI $ Y Y QUALCOMM Inc QCOM $ N N Toyota Motor Corp TM $ Y Y Wal-Mart Stores Inc WMT $ Y Y Table gives rough technical picture only. Individual scores are binary. Overall score represents the sum of six equally weighted metrics: higher number the better. Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James Ltd. Priced July 18, 2013

5 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 5 of 8 Updates Company Ticker Date highlighted Date closed Comments Bullish Trend Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM 06/07/2013 Found support at $ Breakout potential still in play. Algonquin Power & Utilities AQN 07/10/2013 Finding support at current levels. Argonaut Gold Inc. AR 06/07/2013 Found support at $5.20. Breakout potential still in play. Bell Aliant Inc. BA 05/08/2013 Breakout intact. Cameco Corp CCO 01/23/2013 Consolidating but with upside bias. Cineplex Inc. CGX 05/08/2013 Breakout intact. Eldorado Gold ELD 06/07/2013 Found support at $6.00. Breakout potential still in play. Enbridge Inc. ENB 06/18/2013 Successfully bouncing off trendline support. Gibson Energy Inc. GEI 06/18/2013 Testing critical channel-bottom support. Gildan Activewear Inc. GIL 03/19/2013 Uptrend intact. Home Capital Group HCG 07/10/2013 Uptrend intact. Testing resistance at $ Kirkland Lake Gold Inc. KGI 05/31/2013 Breakout failing. Critical support at $ Premier Gold Mines Ltd. PG 06/18/2013 Testing critical support at $1.55. Sun Life Financial Inc. SLF 07/10/2013 Uptrend intact. Torex Gold Resources Inc. TXG 05/31/2013 Challenging 50-day MA resistance. Trican Well Service TCW 02/26/2013 Testing critical channel-bottom support. Closing off?* Bearish Trend ARC Resources Ltd. ARX 05/14/2013 Continues to struggle with resistance at $ Catamaran Corp. CCT 05/31/2013 Double-top pattern failing but head-and-shoulders top emerging. CCL Industries Inc. CCL B 07/10/2013 Continues showing signs of fatigue. Chartwell Retirement Residences CSH.UN 06/07/2013 Challenging resistance at 50-day MA. Enerflex Ltd. EFX 05/31/2013 Topping pattern still intact. Russel Metals Inc. RUS 06/18/2013 Downtrend at risk. 100-day MA key test of resistance. Suncor Energy Inc. SU 04/23/2013 Testing down trendline resistance. * Indicates technical pattern has completed or trend direction has changed or is unclear. Source: Raymond James Ltd.

6 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 6 of 8 Previously Highlighted Stocks Company Ticker Date highlighted Date closed * Bullish Trend Aecon Group Inc. ARE 03/26/ /31/2013 Alimentation Couche Tard Inc. ATD B 02/12/ /07/2013 Bombardier Inc. BBD B 05/14/ /07/2013 Bonterra Energy Corp. BNE 02/26/ /10/2013 Brookfield Office Properties BPO 04/16/ /07/2013 Crescent Point Energy CPG 01/23/ /16/2013 Crombie REIT CRR.UN 04/16/ /07/2013 Emera Inc. EMA 04/23/ /10/2013 Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. FFH 03/26/ /31/2013 Finning International Inc. FTT 01/11/ /09/2013 Fortis Inc. FTS 04/09/ /07/2013 Genivar Inc. GNV 01/23/ /26/2013 Maple Leaf Foods Inc. MFI 03/05/ /08/2013 Northern Property REIT NPR.UN 04/16/ /07/2013 Pacific Rubiales Energy PRE 02/12/ /19/2013 Pason Systems Inc. PSI 03/19/ /10/2013 Precision Drilling Corp PD 02/12/ /23/2013 Pretium Resources Inc. PVG 05/14/ /07/2013 Teck Resources Ltd. TCK B 01/11/ /12/2013 Teck Resources Ltd. TCK B 05/08/ /10/2013 Thomson Reuters Corp. TRI 03/19/ /31/2013 Uranium One Inc. UUU 01/11/ /23/2013 Bearish Trend Agnico-Eagle Mines Ltd. AEM 01/11/ /26/2013 Argonaut Gold Inc. AR 02/26/ /23/2013 Athabasca Oil Corp. ATH 03/26/ /31/2013 Aurizon Mines Ltd. ARZ 05/08/ /07/2013 Baytex Energy Corp. BTE 04/09/ /08/2013 Boardwalk REIT BEI.UN 03/19/ /10/2013 Canexus Corp. CUS 04/23/ /08/2013 Dollarama Inc. DOL 01/23/ /16/2013 Endeavour Silver Corp EDR 03/05/ /23/2013 First Quantum Minerals Ltd. FM 03/05/ /19/2013 Franco-Nevada Corp. FNV 04/09/ /23/2013 Goldcorp Inc. G 04/16/ /07/2013 Husky Energy Inc. HSE 03/19/ /16/2013 Reitmans Canada Ltd. RET A 02/26/ /08/2013 Tourmaline Oil Corp TOU 01/11/ /23/2013 WestJet Airlines Ltd. WJA 02/12/ /05/2013 * Indicates technical pattern had completed or trend direction had changed or became unclear. Source: Raymond James Ltd.

7 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 7 of 8 Glossary Ascending Triangle A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of an upward sloping triangle with an ascending lower trendline. A break down through the support trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern. Bollinger Bands Bollinger bands gauge a security s trading activity and trend by showing a range of normal price swings. Candlestick Chart A graphical representation of prices where opening and closing prices are connected to form coloured boxes. Generally, a series of dark candlesticks suggest downside momentum and light candlesticks upside momentum. Continuation Pattern A chart formation that signals the continuation of the prevailing trend. Continuation patterns often occur after a period of brief consolidation. Descending Triangle A continuation pattern where the period of consolidation takes the shape of a downward sloping triangle with a declining upper resistance trendline. A break up through the resistance trendline can sometimes mark a reversal pattern. Double Bottom Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended downtrend and resembles a W. Double bottoms signal potential price reversals. Double Top Chart formation that normally occurs after an extended uptrend and resembles an M. Double tops signal potential price reversals. Fibonacci Sequences Mathematical relationships that help predict points of support or resistance. The key Fibonacci ratio is 61.8% also referred to as "the golden ratio" or "the golden mean". Flag A chart formation in which prices move sharply to create a near vertical line (the flag pole) followed by a small move in the opposite direction (the flag). Flags are often continuation patterns. Gap An open space on a chart. A gap is created when the low of one time period is above the high of the previous period, or the high of one time period is below the low of the previous period. Gaps can signal breakouts or continuations of up or down trends. Head-and-Shoulders Formation A reversal chart formation that looks like a head and shoulders (with both a defined left and right shoulder). Head-and-shoulders formations can occur at both the bottom and top of a trend. MACD The moving average convergence/divergence determines turning points in a trend by differencing two exponential moving averages of specific periods. The trendline of the MACD can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices. Moving Average A statistical tool that plots smoothed prices to signal future price trends. 50-day and 200-day moving averages are the most common indicators. Resistance level A technical level that prices may have trouble rising above (i.e., where the price may experience selling pressure).

8 Technically Speaking July 19, 2013 Page 8 of 8 Rounded Bottom A bullish reversal pattern taking the shape of a U. Ideally, the rounded bottom should be accompanied by a similar volume pattern. RSI The relative strength index measures the velocity of directional price movements with extreme values indicating overbought and oversold conditions. The trendline of the RSI can also signal continuation or reversal trends for share prices. Support Level A technical level that prices may have trouble falling below (i.e., where the price should have buying support). Trendline A line connecting a series of ascending lows (in the case of an up trendline) or descending highs (in the case of a down trendline). Appendix A Important Investor Disclosures A member of the PCS team responsible for preparation of this document or a member of his/her household has a long position in the securities of Enbridge Inc. (ENB T), Royal Bank of Canada (RY T), North West Co (NWC-T), Vermilion Energy Inc. (VET-T), Cineplex Inc. (CGX- T), Potash Corporation (POT-T), Sun Life Financial (SLF-T), Whitecap Resources Inc. (WCP-T), Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FFH-T), Teck Resources Ltd. (TCK B-T) and Fortis Inc. (FTS T). Complete disclosures for companies covered by Raymond James can be viewed at: Raymond James Ltd. (RJL) Private Client Solution group prepared this newsletter. The views expressed are those of Private Client Solutions and may differ from fundamental research views. These opinions are based on historical technical data and the expectation of the most probable direction of a security or market. This outcome is not guaranteed. This newsletter does not constitute research coverage of any company and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Information is from sources believed to be reliable but accuracy cannot be guaranteed. It is for informational purposes only. It is not meant to provide legal or tax advice; as each situation is different, individuals should seek advice based on their circumstances. Nor is it an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. It is intended for distribution only in those jurisdictions where RJL is registered. This report is made widely available at the same time to all RJL Financial Advisers and is not posted to any publicly available website. RJL, its officers, directors, agents, employees and families may from time to time hold long or short positions in the securities mentioned herein and may engage in transactions contrary to the conclusions in this newsletter. RJL may perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking business from, any company mentioned in this newsletter. Securities offered through Raymond James Ltd., Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Financial planning and insurance offered through Raymond James Financial Planning Ltd., not a Member-Canadian Investor Protection Fund. Clients can also access our research at Raymond James.ca, if you do not have an account, please contact your advisor. RJL is a member of Canadian Investor Protection Fund Raymond James Ltd.