a meaningful company doing meaningful work delivering meaningful results 2007 Analyst Meeting February 21, 2007

Transcription

1 a meaningful company doing meaningful work delivering meaningful results 2007 Analyst Meeting February 21, 2007

2 Cautionary Statement Regarding Forward-looking Statements The reserves and production information in this presentation, and the reserve replacement costs derived from this information include the proved gas and oil reserves and production attributable to El Paso s 43 percent interest in Four Star Oil & Gas Company ( Four Star ). El Paso s Supplemental Oil and Gas disclosures, which will be included in its Annual Report on Form 10-K, will reflect its proportionate share of the proved reserves of Four Star separately from its consolidated proved reserves. In addition, the proved reserves attributable to its proportionate share of Four Star represent estimates prepared by El Paso and not those of Four Star. This presentation includes forward-looking statements and projections, made in reliance on the safe harbor provisions of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of Forward-looking statements include statements regarding our plans for 2007 and our expected financial and operating results for 2007, as well as other statements regarding matters other than historical fact. The company has made every reasonable effort to ensure that the information and assumptions on which these statements and projections are based are current, reasonable, and complete. However, a variety of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from the projections, anticipated results or other expectations expressed in this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in unaudited and/or unreviewed financial information; our ability to file our annual report on Form 10-K by March 1, 2007; our ability to implement and achieve our objectives in the 2007 plan as set forth in this presentation, including achieving our debt-reduction targets, earnings and cash flow targets; changes in reserve estimates based upon internal and third party reserve analyses; the effects of any changes in accounting rules and guidance; our ability to meet production volume targets in our Production segment; uncertainties and potential consequences associated with the outcome of governmental investigations, including, without limitation, those related to the reserve revisions and natural gas hedge transactions; outcome of litigation; our ability to comply with the covenants in our various financing documents; our ability to obtain necessary governmental approvals for proposed pipeline projects and our ability to successfully construct and operate such projects; the risks associated with recontracting of transportation commitments by our pipelines; regulatory uncertainties associated with pipeline rate cases; actions by the credit rating agencies; the successful close of our financing transactions; our ability to successfully exit the energy trading business; our ability to close our announced asset sales on a timely basis; changes in commodity prices for oil, natural gas, and power; inability to realize anticipated synergies and cost savings associated with restructurings and divestitures on a timely basis; general economic and weather conditions in geographic regions or markets served by the company and its affiliates, or where operations of the company and its affiliates are located; the uncertainties associated with governmental regulation; political and currency risks associated with international operations of the company and its affiliates; competition; and other factors described in the company s (and its affiliates ) Securities and Exchange Commission filings. While the company makes these statements and projections in good faith, neither the company nor its management can guarantee that anticipated future results will be achieved. Reference must be made to those filings for additional important factors that may affect actual results. The company assumes no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements made herein or any other forward-looking statements made by the company, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors - The United States Securities and Exchange Commission permits oil and gas companies, in their filings with the SEC, to disclose only proved reserves that a company has demonstrated by actual production or conclusive formation tests to be economically and legally producible under existing economic and operating conditions. We use certain terms in this presentation, such as net risked resource, unrisked wells, and unrisked gross wells, that the SEC's guidelines strictly prohibit us from including in filings with the SEC. U.S. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosures regarding proved reserves in this presentation and the disclosures that will be contained in our Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2006, File No , available from by writing; Investor Relations, El Paso Corporation, 1001 Louisiana St., Houston, TX You can also obtain this form from the SEC by calling SEC Non-GAAP Financial Measures This presentation includes certain Non-GAAP financial measures as defined in the SEC s Regulation G. More information on these Non-GAAP financial measures, including EBIT, EBITDA, free cash flow, net debt, and liquidity, as well as adjusted income and cash measures, and the required reconciliations under Regulation G, are set forth in the appendix hereto. 2

3 Schedule Introduction Bruce Connery.. Vice President, Investor & Public Relations Doug Foshee. President and Chief Executive Officer Macro Outlook Byron Wright.. Vice President, Corporate Development Financial Review Mark Leland... Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer Exploration & Production Brent Smolik.. President, Exploration & Production Q&A Break Pipelines Jim Yardley... President, Pipeline Group Q&A Summary Q&A 3

4 A New Chapter for El Paso Post ANR Financially strong, flexible Premier natural gas pipeline franchise Greatly improved E&P business Favorable macro environment for both businesses 4

5 Closing the Credibility Gap 2003 Today Governance Management Defining our purpose Creating a new culture Restoring financial condition Delivering results, the right way 5

6 A Well-Governed, Fit-for-Purpose Board Juan Carlos Braniff James L. Dunlap Douglas L. Foshee Robert W. Goldman Anthony W. Hall, Jr. Thomas R. Hix William H. Joyce Ronald L. Kuehn, Jr. Ferrell P. McClean Steven J. Shapiro J. Michael Talbert Robert F. Vagt John L. Whitmire Joe B. Wyatt 13 of 14 independent Separate Chairman/CEO Not staggered HSE Committee No poison pill Majority voting provision 6 former/present CEOs Clear reporting We are good stewards of your investment Note: Highlighted names denote new directors since

7 Seasoned, Motivated, Management Team Jim Yardley Brent Smolik Bob Baker Sue Ortenstone Mark Leland Pipelines E&P Legal Human Resources, Information Technology, Facilities Finance and Accounting 7

8 Defining Our Purpose El Paso Corporation provides natural gas and related energy products in a safe, efficient, and dependable manner 8

9 Creating a New Culture the place to work the neighbor to have the company to own 9

10 Creating a New Culture Compensation Benefits Career development Performance management plan Succession planning Employee survey results 2004 vs Diversity Communications Community involvement Our plan to make EP the place to work 10

11 Restoring Financial Condition December 2003 December 2006 Post ANR Complexity High Low Low At or near Leverage Very high Manageable investment grade Financial flexibility None Improved Very good $1.9 billion Return to Further EPS Profitability loss in 2003 Profitability growth in 2007 Disclosure/transparency Improved Excellent Excellent 11

12 Delivering Results December 3, 2003 February 16, 2007 Total shareholder return CAGR: EP: 30.9% S&P 500: 12.2% $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 EP Equity S&P Energy: 31.7% $ Sustainable performance 12

13 Delivering Results, The Right Way Much more clarity Much less complexity/volatility Consistent improvement over three years Profitability Operating performance Transparent, performance-based comp 13

14 A Great 2006 Return to profitability More than $1 billion year-over-year swing in profits Pipelines excelled E&P continued to progress Reduced gross debt by $2.8 billion Upgraded by both rating agencies 27% TSR 14

15 A Great 2006 Eliminated major legacy issues Shareholder litigation Macaé and Araucaria disputes Completed exit of domestic power Significantly downsized trading business Power book Alliance capacity Gas book Executed ANR sale agreement 15

16 Favorable Outlook Continues Pipelines Tremendous infrastructure opportunities Rockies LNG Market growth Best positioned pipelines Market connectivity Supply access E&P New leadership Solid foundation Deep inventory/quality basins Well positioned for volatile price environment 16

17 Production flat up to 8% $1.7 billion capital E&P Plan 2007 $1.2 billion domestic program $255 MM Texas Gulf Coast (TGC) acquisition $215 MM International Program creating value Emphasis on elevating performance Credibility, growth, and cost structure 17

18 Pipeline Plan 2007 Executing on expansion opportunities $610 MM growth capital More expansion opportunities in process 4% 6% long-term EBIT growth After 22% in 2006* Expect investment-grade rating (at pipelines) after ANR close More competitive with lower cost of capital *Includes ANR, 28% as reported 18

19 Pipelines What Are They Worth? Consensus is 8x 9x EBITDA Recent transactions (including ANR) in the 10x 12x + EBITDA range Similar pipelines trading 10x EBITDA El Paso has best franchise, best expansion inventory, best growth trajectory Pipelines warrant premium multiple 19

20 MLP in 2007 EP to pursue MLP in 2007 Illuminate value of EP assets Access to low-cost capital Significant qualifying asset base Stable cash flow Organic growth potential NOL provides further tax efficiency for formation Proceeds in 2007 provide incremental cash flow 20

21 EPS: $0.82 $0.98* 2007 Financial Highlights EBITDA: $3.0 billion $3.2 billion Capex: $2.7 billion Balance sheet restored *Assumes $7/MMBtu natural gas and $56/Bbl WTI. Does not include gain on sale of ANR or costs for early debt retirement 21

22 Macro Outlook 22

23 Macro Outlook Summary of Key Themes Return to demand growth Economy Electricity Gas Supply shift Rockies (Mid-continent), LNG (GOM), Canada Flow change West East, South North Increased swing requirements Demand peaks + Supply variability Volatility Expanding horizon Regional Continental Global 23

24 Macro Outlook U.S. Back on Global Growth Track CAGR CAGR 05 15E CAGR U.S. 3.55% World 2.72% U.S. 0.14% World 2.48% U.S. 2.16% World 3.28% U.S. Tcf World Tcf World Demand U.S. Demand U.S. Supply Source : El Paso 24

25 Demand Growth Tilts East and North Bcf/d NW and 2.5 Alaska % % Western 5.9 Canada % % % N.A. Total % CAGR 2.3% Source: El Paso Corporation Eastern 3.4 Canada % % Maritimes and Northeast U.S % % Mexico % 25

26 Alaska % N/A San Juan % Source : El Paso MacKenzie 0.0 Western 0.0 Canada 1.0 N.A. Total Supply Growth tilts West and South Rockies % CAGR 2.3% % Permian % Mexico % Mid Continent % OnShore Gulf % Eastern 0.5 Canada % GOM % Bcf/d N.A. LNG Imports % 26

27 (Bcf/d) Mackenzie Delta Supply Push Gas Flows N.A. LNG Imports Source: El Paso Corporation

28 Bcf/d Will there be supply for the U.S.? LNG Supply Supply Available for United States and Canada Asia (including India) LNG Consumption European LNG Consumption Mexico & Caribbean LNG Consumption 28

29 16.00 El Paso Price Outlook Feb-04 Aug-04 Feb-05 Aug-05 Feb-06 Aug-06 Feb-07 Aug-07 Feb-08 Aug-08 Feb-09 Aug-09 Feb-10 Aug-10 Prompt Month Prompt Natural Month NG Gas History History NG Futures Natural Curve Gas Curve EP Plan EP Plan 29 Price ($/MMBtu)

30 Volatility in Natural Gas Physical Supply Variability 1,200 1, /01/05 01/01/06 03/01/06 05/01/06 07/01/06 09/01/06 11/01/06 01/01/07 MDth/d Seasonal Variability January to August Variance % % % 30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Bcf/d Source: EIA, El Paso Elba Island

31 El Paso is Well Positioned to Grow Mackenzie Delta Our pipelines serve the fastest growing markets in the Southeast, Southwest and Northeast Our pipelines access growing supplies in the West and Gulf of Mexico North American natural gas markets will continue to be supply constrained with the resulting strong natural gas prices for our E&P segment 31

32 Financial Review Note: 2006 results are unaudited and subject to change a meaningful company doing meaningful work delivering meaningful results 32

33 2006 Financial Accomplishments More than $1 billion improvement in earnings from 2005 First profitable year since 2000 Stronger credit rating S&P 1 notch upgrade positive outlook Moody s 2 notch upgrade positive outlook New credit facilities in place Improved terms and lower costs Sold approximately $1 billion in assets Executed 2007 hedge program minimal cost low collateral Continued reduction in marketing and trading exposure ANR transaction announced Closing imminent 33

34 Earnings Per Share (EPS): 2006 Continuing operations* $0.72 Discontinued operations ANR (operating) ANR (4Q deferred tax) Other Net income $0.21 (0.25) (0.04) (0.08) $0.64 *Includes $0.23 per share gain on production-related puts, calls, and swaps Note: Assumes diluted shares outstanding of 739 MM shares; 2006 results are unaudited and subject to change 34

35 $ Millions, Except EPS Earnings Reconciliation Income from continuing operations Earnings $ 531 EPS $0.72 Adjustments: ANR operating results Production-related puts, calls, and swaps Alliance capacity buyout Income tax settlements MTM loss on MCV transaction Other legacy and debt restructuring costs 156 (172) 122 (159) (0.23) 0.17 (0.22) Adjusted income from continuing operations $ 580 $0.79 Note: See appendix for further information; 2006 results are unaudited and subject to change 35

36 EPS Reconciliation Adjusted 2006 EPS Lower commodity prices $0.79 $0.18 Original 2006 EPS estimate: $0.95 $0.97 $

37 $ Millions Key Financial Results 2006 Continuing Operations Discontinued Operations 1 Total 2005 Total 2 % Change EBIT $ 1,750 $ 297 $ 2,047 $ % DD&A 1, ,137 1,133 Interest expense 1, ,307 1,381 5% Net debt 14, ,893 16,102 8% Total shareholders equity 4,186 4,186 3,389 24% 1 Discontinued operations includes ANR and associated debt 2 Reported amounts adjusted for discontinued operations. Further details provided in the appendix Note: Form 10-K expected to be filed on February 27,

38 Recognition of Improved Financial Condition C El Paso bond spreads Bond Index B BB BBB Bonds trading at high BB level 1/04 6/04 1/05 6/05 1/06 6/06 1/07 Note: Reflects trading performance of El Paso Corporation bond due

39 Primary 2007 Financial Objectives Grow core business value accretive Maintain capital discipline Continue to improve credit profile Continue to drive down cost of capital Continue to drive out legacy costs 39

40 $7.00/MMBtu Henry Hub Assumptions for 2007 Plan 93%* realization before hedges $56.00/Bbl WTI 88%* realization before hedges *Net of transportation costs 40

41 ANR Transaction Impacts Key Facts Sales price: $4.1 billion*; after-tax proceeds: $3.3 billion Assets sold: ANR Pipeline Great Lakes interest Michigan storage assets Buyer: TransCanada Financial Implication Earnings neutral to accretive Substantial debt reduction Approximately $650 after-tax gain Debt restructuring charges Remaining NOL $1 billion *Includes $770 MM debt 41

42 2007 Natural Gas Hedge Program Ceiling 133 Bcf Average cap $11.48 MMBtu 54.8 Bcf $8.00 floor/ $16.89 ceiling 78.4 Bcf $7.70 fixed price 89.4 Bcf $7.50 floor Balance at Market Price Floors 223 Bcf Average floor $7.69 MMBtu Supports approximately 89%* of 2007 domestic natural gas production No margin requirements *Includes our 43.1% share of Four Star natural gas production Note: Assumes 1 Mcf = 1 MMBtu 42

43 $ Millions 2007 Capital Program Maintenance Pipelines E&P Total $ $1,210 2 $1,610 Growth ,080 Total $1,010 $1,680 $2,690 Growth capital 40% of total 1 Excludes $50 MM potential hurricane repairs 2 Capital estimated to replace production 43

44 $ Millions 2007 Key Metrics Pipeline EBIT Exploration & Production EBIT Volumes (MMcfe/d) DD&A rate ($/Mcfe) Cash costs ($/Mcfe) Marketing EBIT $1,205 $1,245 $740 $ * $2.50 $2.75 $1.68 $2.00 $(65) $(45) *Includes Four Star volumes 44

45 $ Millions Core Earnings Buildup Pipelines 2007 EBIT DD&A EBITDA $1,205 $1,245 $ 380 $1,585 $1,625 Exploration & Production ,480 1,595 Marketing (65) (45) 5 (60) (40) Corporate and other (15) 10 (5) Total $1,865 $2,040 $1,135 $3,000 $3,175 Note: Does not include expenses related to early debt retirement and gain on sale of ANR-related assets 45

46 2007 Core Earnings and Cash Flow* ($ Millions, Except EPS) EBITDA* DD&A EBIT Interest Taxes at 33% Net income from continuing operations Non-cash adjustments DD&A Non-cash taxes Working capital changes & other Operating cash Dividends Maintenance capital Discretionary cash Growth capital Asset sales: ANR related Asset sales: Non-ANR related Cash available for debt reduction $3,000 $3,175 1,135 1,865 2, $620 $740 $ 1, $2,045 $2,220 $150 1,610 $285 $460 1,080 3, $3,070 $3,245 Post-ANR sale annualized interest costs: $850 MM EPS $0.82 $0.98 *Excludes expenses related to early debt retirement and gain on sale of ANR-related assets 46

47 $ Millions Solid Improvement in Financial Position Debt E 2 $21,732 $11,827 Security of subsidiaries Preferred stock Stockholders equity Book capitalization 447 4,474 $26, ,664 $17,241 Debt to capital Net debt to EBITDA EBITDA to fixed charges Interest expense 82% 11.0x 1.0x $ 1,787 69% 3.8x 3.2x $ As originally reported; see appendix for further information 2 ANR and related storage assets included in discontinued operations 47

48 $ Millions, Except EPS Sensitivity Analysis Change per MMBtu $1 + $1 + $2 EBITDA $ (45) $ 95 $ 275 EPS $(0.04) $0.08 $

49 Items Potentially Impacting 2007 Earnings Gains/losses on asset sales Costs associated with debt retirement Commodity prices Strategic reduction of legacy trading positions 49

50 Marketing & Trading: Significant Progress in 2006 Eliminated all power commodity price exposure Eliminated Alliance capacity effective November 2007 Significantly reduced gas trading book Substantial roll-off of legacy hedges Reduced MTM hedge exposure Developed and executed hedging strategy for E&P 50

51 $ Millions Mark-to-Market Book by Commodity Volatility Status Value at 12/31/05 Value at 12/31/06 Gas Low Impacted by MCV sale. No fixed price commodity exposure $ 11 $(111) Power commodity Low Remaining commodity exposure completely hedged at PJM West Hub (299) (275) Power basis Medium Exposure to PJM locational price differentials (216) (133) Economic hedges Medium Reduced Positions (249) 86 $(753) $(433) 51

52 Significant progress in 2006 Continue momentum in 2007 Hedge position de-risks much of 2007 plan El Paso positioned to: Summary Take advantage of growth opportunities Manage in volatile commodity price environment Financial health fully restored post-anr sale 52