LOOK TO EUROPE S LEADERS FOR SUSTAINABLE RETURNS
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1 FOR INVESTMENT PROFESSIONALS ONLY LOOK TO EUROPE S LEADERS FOR SUSTAINABLE RETURNS COLUMBIATHREADNEEDLE.COM
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3 LOOK TO EUROPE S LEADERS FOR SUSTAINABLE RETURNS David Dudding Portfolio Manager Mark Nichols Portfolio Manager THREADNEEDLE EUROPEAN SELECT FUND: 30 YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE In the past few years, high-quality growth stocks like Anheuser-Busch InBev, RELX and Unilever have delivered strong returns to shareholders. They have done so even though other companies have reported volatile and poor results, and stock markets have at times failed to perform. What these European champions have in common is a competitive advantage and a robust business model that allows them to sustain high returns over long periods of time. Without this advantage, it would not take long for competitive forces to drive down their returns. By investing in these market leaders, the Threadneedle European Select Fund has generated attractive long-term investment returns. In the past 30 years, the fund has generated an annualised performance of 11.2%, compared with the FTSE World Europe (ex UK) index s 8.1%. 1 Over the three decades, the fund would have turned 100 into 2,204.82, more than twice the index s The fund has delivered impressive long-term returns and the focus on building a highconviction portfolio provides the potential for strong and sustainable future returns. At a time when less predictable returns from equities in general seem likely, these high-quality stocks may well prove to be among the stock market s most sustainable performers. 1 All returns are gross of fees and include gross reinvested income. Covering period from to From , the fund returns are calculated using global close valuations and daily cash flows. From , the returns are based on global close prices (prior to this date official noon prices have been used). 3
4 The market underestimates the sustainability of returns Returns Additional shareholder value Actual Fade Cost of capital Assumed Fade Time SUSTAINING HIGH RETURNS In a free market economy, capital seeks the areas of highest return. Whenever a company develops a profitable product or service, it attracts competition. A company must possess competitive advantage to avoid or defeat such competition and to sustain high returns. Strong management and great products are advantages for any business, but they are not enough. Only exceptional companies possess sufficiently powerful competitive advantage to protect their positions and pricing power. In order to maintain the pricing power needed to grow profits while maintaining high returns on investment for a long period, a company typically boasts one or more of the following factors:- 1. Strong brands Brands often lead to industry dominance, and act as barriers to entry 2. Patents Patents prevent competition for a company s products 3. Cost advantage Low costs can enable a company to limit the attractiveness of a market to existing competitors and new entrants 4. Network effect Where current users of a good gain when additional users adopt it (a classic example is the telephone) Porter s Five Forces (see diagram below), the business strategy tool, is useful for showing the competitiveness of different industries. Developed by Harvard s Professor Michael E Porter, this helps to reveal a company s sustainable competitive positioning and sources of pricing power. 4
5 Anheuser-Busch InBev (ABI) is an example of a European company with powerful competitive advantage. ABI s beer brands are among the world s best known Budweiser, Stella Artois and Corona are stocked across the world and it has a powerful distribution network. Furthermore, its suppliers have little power to push up prices as they produce commodities. Additionally, ABI s proposed takeover of SABMiller will create a global beer company, and enhance its position in Africa s fast-growing markets. ABI: the world s best known beers Rebased = Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Anheuser-Busch InBev Anheuser-Busch InBev relative to FTSE W Europe Index Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. Bloomberg 2016 Unilever, the Anglo-Dutch consumer goods company, is another company with strong competitive advantage. It has more than 400 brands, including Ben & Jerry s, Dove, Lynx, Persil and Vaseline. It is gradually moving from food to higher-growth, higher-return areas such as personal care. Unilever: powered by consumer brands Rebased = Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 Unilever Unilever relative to FTSE W Europe Index Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. Bloomberg
6 RELX, a specialist publishing conglomerate, also has competitive advantages. It has scale from the number of legal and scientific publications it controls, and power because of their importance and longevity. It benefits directly from the move to online (rather than paper-based) access as it can offer its clients more, become more important to them and therefore charge them more. Its databases gives it unique access to risk data which is in increasing demand in the insurance world. RELX: strong intangible assets Rebased = Mar 14 Sep 14 Mar 15 Sep 15 Mar 16 RELX Group RELX Group relative to FTSE W Europe Index Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. Bloomberg 2016 THE PROCESS OF PICKING WINNERS The process of picking companies with strong competitive advantages has been in place for 30 years. The managers have significant experience of managing portfolios across various market conditions, and can draw upon a range of different perspectives from within our multidisciplinary European equity team and across the wider investment platform. Dave Dudding has managed the fund for nine years and has recently been joined by Mark Nichols as co-portfolio manager. They are supported by a team of 13. The stocks selected aim to deliver high returns over the long term. The size of the fund s position in a stock depends primarily on how great the managers judge the potential gains to be, as it is also matched to liquidity. Sufficient liquidity means a holding can be trimmed if it becomes expensive and added to if it gets cheaper. Typically, the companies in the portfolio have large, established collections of products and services. Many of them come from Europe s consumer discretionary and pharmaceutical sectors, with strong brands and patents respectively. By contrast, there are few holdings in the oil & gas, financials and utility sectors, where there is little pricing power. 6 But even the strongest competitive advantage does not always last forever, especially at a time of rapid technological change. Every portfolio holding s investment case and price is closely monitored. While stocks are generally held for long periods, they can be sold for example, if there is a deterioration in their industry s prospects and an erosion of their competitive advantage.
7 30 YEARS OF STRONG PERFORMANCE The fund s 30-year performance illustrates the long-term gain of investing in Europe s high-quality growth stocks. Since inception in 1986, the fund has generated 11.2% annualized performance. By comparison, the FTSE World Europe (ex UK) Index has returned just 8.1%. 2 Analysis of the past five years demonstrates steady performance during an erratic time for European stock markets. The fund s annualised performance of 13.6% is in excess of the FTSE World Europe ex UK Index s 7.1%. 3 The main difference between the two came in 2011, when the index fell -12.5% but the fund protected investors capital, declining just 0.1%. An Information Ratio of 1.17 illustrates its solid balance of return and risk. The team has managed the fund for the past seven years, so this performance illustrates their medium-term track record. LOOKING FORWARD High-quality stocks can generate sustainable capital growth for investors at a time when weak economic growth and other factors are putting pressure on equity performance. While many stocks are highly dependent on the prevailing conditions in the economy and stock market to drive their returns, the best high-quality growth stocks should be able to carry on delivering high returns on capital, and earnings growth, almost regardless. The fund has delivered impressive long-term returns and the focus on building a highconviction portfolio provides the potential for strong and sustainable future returns. All over the world, investors are looking for ways to achieve capital growth in a challenging market environment. A select portfolio of high-quality European stocks stands out as a way of achieving this. 2 All returns are gross of fees and include gross reinvested income. Covering period from to From , the fund returns are calculated using global close valuations and daily cash flows. From , the returns are based on global close prices (prior to this date official noon prices have been used). 3 Source: FactSet, as at 31 March Fund returns gross of tax and TER for comparison with indices. All data is quoted in EUR. 7
8 PORTER S FIVE FORCES 1. Degree of rivalry The intensity of competitive rivalry is the major determinant of a company s competitiveness 2. Threat of substitution Substitute products can shrink the size of a market for example mobile phones have reduced the use of landline phones 3. Buying power The bargaining power of customers affects a company s ability to increase prices, its pricing power 4. Supplier power The bargaining power of suppliers affects input prices. If there are not many suppliers, they can increase their prices 5. Barriers to entry Profitable companies that yield high returns will attract competition, unless there are barriers to entry Porter s Five Forces Supplier power Barriers to entry Degree of rivalry Threat of substitution Buying power 8
9 To find out more visit COLUMBIATHREADNEEDLE.COM Important information: This material in this publication is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an order to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer is not authorised, or to provide investment advice or services. Investors are advised to read and understand the contents of the Prospectus before investing. This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision to hold or continue to hold units in the fund you should consider, with the assistance of a financial or other professional adviser, whether the investment is appropriate in light of those circumstances. In the event an investor chooses not to seek advice from a financial adviser, the investor should consider whether the fund is suitable for him. Past performance of the fund and its manager and any forecasts or information on the economic trends are not necessarily indicative of the future or likely performance of the fund or its manager or a guarantee of future trends. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. The fund may invest in financial derivative instruments to the extent permitted under relevant laws. As such, it may experience greater volatility in its net asset value. Further details are available in the Prospectus. The research and analysis included in this document has been produced by Columbia Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This document includes forward looking statements, including projections of future economic and financial conditions. None of Columbia Threadneedle Investments, its directors, officers or employees make any representation, warranty, guaranty, or other assurance that any of these forward looking statements will prove to be accurate. The mention of any specific shares or bonds should not be taken as a recommendation to deal. This document and its contents are proprietary. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of Columbia Threadneedle Investments. Threadneedle Investment Funds ICVC ( TIF ) is an open-ended investment company with variable capital incorporated with limited liability and registered in England and Wales and is constituted outside of Singapore. TIF has appointed State Street Bank And Trust Company, Singapore Branch as its Singapore representative and agent for service of process in Singapore. Subscriptions to a fund may only be made on the basis of the Offering Documents as well as the latest annual or interim reports and the applicable terms & conditions. Please refer to the Risk Factors section of the Prospectus for all risks applicable to investing in any fund and specifically this fund. The above documents can be obtained free of charge on request from any appointed distributors or our website at Issued by Threadneedle Investments Singapore (Pte.) Limited, 3 Killiney Road, #07-07, Winsland House 1, Singapore Regulated in Singapore by the Monetary Authority of Singapore( MAS ) under the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) ( SFA ). Registration number: W. This document is not a prospectus as defined in the SFA. Accordingly, statutory liability under the SFA in relation to the content of prospectuses would not apply. Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies. columbiathreadneedle.com Issued Valid to 01.17
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