AM Charts. Markets React to Dovish Rate Hike
|
|
- Jessie Stokes
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Page 1 Markets React to Dovish Rate Hike Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist robert.kavcic@bmo.com Sell the news, as they say (except this time, it was buy the news). Markets reacted to the Federal Reserve rate hike by pulling down bond yields (the 10-year Treasury yield fell to 2.5%), lifting stocks and sparking a rally in the Canadian dollar (back to 75 US cents). Of course, the rate hike was fully priced in, and markets were more tuned into the dot plot and press conference, perhaps bracing for another more hawkish shift. But that didn t happen, with the median path for tightening unchanged for 2017 and 2018, and the statement reiterating a gradual pace of rate hikes.
2 Page 2 High, High, American CPI Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com A long, long time ago (two years back), I can still remember how that zero inflation used to make me smile. But February s result made me shiver, with every price report it delivered. Bad news on the headline, it almost reached 2.9. (Year-on-year, % change). I can t remember if bonds cried, when they read about how core also rised. But something touched the Fed deep inside, the day low inflation died. While U.S. CPI was no big shock, it shows the steady rebound in headline inflation continues now 2.7% y/y, a five-year high. However, core CPI remains quite stable, with the yearly rate holding in a tight range just above 2% for more than a year now. Speaking of stable, while U.S. headline inflation has jumped from a standing start to 2.7%, Canadian CPI has seen much less amplitude.
3 Page 3 Retail Charge Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com Today s retail sales data for February were in line with market expectations, give or take a tenth, but the big news was the huge upward revisions to January. This means there was much more underlying momentum to start the year. Two-month cumulative increases are now 0.7% for headline retail sales, and 1.3% for both the ex-autos and ex-autos-and gas aggregates. The solid start to 2017 is being supported by growth in income (payroll jobs have perked up) and wealth (record equity and near-record home prices), against the background of surging consumer confidence.
4 Page 4 Why Home Construction is Poised to Pick Up Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com The NAHB s Housing Market Index jumped a hefty 6 pts in March to match its second highest level since 1999 (the highest was in June 2005). The demand for new homes is surging. Part of this reflects the strong fundamentals supporting demand for homes in general (such as sturdy job/income growth, still-attractive affordability, and easing mortgage lending standards). Part of this also reflects the fact that existing homes available for sale are hovering at record lows in terms of months supply. This all points to higher housing starts in the months ahead.
5 Page 5 East Bound and Down? Alex Koustas, Senior Economist Alexandros.koustas@bmo.com Medium and Heavy Truck sales have been a very simple and reliable leading indicator of economic activity for the past several business cycles. With that in mind, February s 15% y/y decline continuing a brutal 11 month trend may make some a little queasy. Weakening truck sales typically signal wavering business sentiment and declining capital investment, but this stands strictly at odds with recent confidence surveys which include: a record print for the NFIB confidence index, a big upswing in the Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook survey and an upswing in the manufacturing PMI. Furthermore, industry level statistics such as the Cass Truckload Line haul index indicate strong shipping activity. But, indicators of pricing activity are weak, hinting at some industry level issues that are affecting purchasing. Bottom Line: While rare, the economy has managed to cruise past poor truck sales in previous cycles, most notably in the late 80s and mid-90s (both very strong periods of growth). So keep your foot hard on the pedal. Never mind them brakes. Let it all hang out 'cause we got a run to make.
6 A daily snapshot of economic trends and events Home Prices Melting Up Across Ontario Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist Moving beyond Toronto for a change, home prices are now melting up pretty much across Southern Ontario inside or outside the Greenbelt, supply constraints or not. Note that cities like St. Catharines-Niagara, Guelph and Barrie began to detach from their long-running (we re talking more than a decade) trends around early-2016, about the same time we began to see Toronto prices break away from their (strong) fundamentals. The evidence mounts. And this is no longer just a Toronto issue. A publication of BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist economics.bmocapitalmarkets.com
7 Page 7 Netherlands or France: Spot the More Worrisome Election Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com The results of the Netherlands election will be known early Thursday but judging by the direction of the country s government bond yields compared to those in France, financial markets seem to be moving on to the next election. One only need look at the spread between France s 10- year OATs and Dutch yields to arrive at that conclusion. While the focus will be how much of the vote Geert Wilders wins, his chances of becoming PM are slim given that no party wants to work with him. Meantime, Marine Le Pen s chances of victory are far greater and thus, she poses much more of a threat to European political stability than the next Dutch government. 10-year spread, France less Netherlands (ppts)
8 Page 8 General Disclosure BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by the BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal and its subsidiaries BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Limited in the U.K. and BMO Capital Markets Corp. in the U.S. BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., BMO Capital Markets Limited and BMO Capital Markets Corp are affiliates. Bank of Montreal or its subsidiaries ( BMO Financial Group ) has lending arrangements with, or provide other remunerated services to, many issuers covered by BMO Capital Markets. The opinions, estimates and projections contained in this report are those of BMO Capital Markets as of the date of this report and are subject to change without notice. BMO Capital Markets endeavours to ensure that the contents have been compiled or derived from sources that we believe are reliable and contain information and opinions that are accurate and complete. However, BMO Capital Markets makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, in respect thereof, takes no responsibility for any errors and omissions contained herein and accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of, or reliance on, this report or its contents. Information may be available to BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates that is not reflected in this report. The information in this report is not intended to be used as the primary basis of investment decisions, and because of individual client objectives, should not be construed as advice designed to meet the particular investment needs of any investor. This material is for information purposes only and is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security. BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates will buy from or sell to customers the securities of issuers mentioned in this report on a principal basis. BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates, officers, directors or employees have a long or short position in many of the securities discussed herein, related securities or in options, futures or other derivative instruments based thereon. The reader should assume that BMO Capital Markets or its affiliates may have a conflict of interest and should not rely solely on this report in evaluating whether or not to buy or sell securities of issuers discussed herein. Dissemination of Research Our publications are disseminated via and may also be available via our web site Please contact your BMO Financial Group Representative for more information. Conflict Statement A general description of how BMO Financial Group identifies and manages conflicts of interest is contained in our public facing policy for managing conflicts of interest in connection with investment research which is available at ADDITIONAL INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST BMO Financial Group (NYSE, TSX: BMO) is an integrated financial services provider offering a range of retail banking, wealth management, and investment and corporate banking products. BMO serves Canadian retail clients through BMO Bank of Montreal and BMO Nesbitt Burns. In the United States, personal and commercial banking clients are served by BMO Harris Bank N.A., Member FDIC. Investment and corporate banking services are provided in Canada and the US through BMO Capital Markets. BMO Capital Markets is a trade name used by BMO Financial Group for the wholesale banking businesses of Bank of Montreal, BMO Harris Bank N.A, BMO Ireland Plc, and Bank of Montreal (China) Co. Ltd. and the institutional broker dealer businesses of BMO Capital Markets Corp. (Member SIPC), BMO Nesbitt Burns Securities Limited (Member SIPC) and BMO Capital Markets GKST Inc. (Member SIPC) in the U.S., BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (Member Canadian Investor Protection Fund) in Canada, Europe and Asia, BMO Capital Markets Limited in Europe, Asia and Australia and BMO Advisors Private Limited in India. Nesbitt Burns is a registered trademark of BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., used under license. BMO Capital Markets is a trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license. BMO (M-Bar roundel symbol) is a registered trademark of Bank of Montreal, used under license. Registered trademark of Bank of Montreal in the United States, Canada and elsewhere. Trademark Bank of Montreal in the United States and Canada. COPYRIGHT 2017 BMO CAPITAL MARKETS CORP. A member of BMO Financial Group
Housing: What the BoC Help Giveth, the BoC Help Taketh Away
Page 1 Housing: What the BoC Help Giveth, the BoC Help Taketh Away Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist robert.kavcic@bmo.com 416-359-8329 The first impact of the follow-up BoC rate hike might be psychological.
More informationAM Charts. Job Growth: Two Trends Converge
A daily snapshot of economic trends and events Job Growth: Two Trends Converge Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 The crackling June employment gain in Canada lifted
More informationAM Charts. Debt Burden a Lasting Constraint
Page 1 Debt Burden a Lasting Constraint Benjamin Reitzes, Canadian Rates & Macro Strategist benjamin.reitzes@bmo.com 416-359-5628 Canada s Q4 national balance sheet accounts release was full of juicy headlines:
More informationEyes on the Earnings Season
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist July 13, 2018 Eyes on the Earnings Season Equity markets rallied this week ahead of what should be a strong Q2 earnings season. The S&P 500 rose 1.5%, led by technology,
More informationLight Sweet Crude O Mine
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist May 11, 2018 Light Sweet Crude O Mine Equity markets rallied this week, with little in the way of major market-moving data. The S&P 500 rose 2.4%, with widespread strong
More informationRunning Into Resistance
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 7, 2018 Running Into Resistance Equity markets slumped this week, with the S&P 500 down 1% and the Nasdaq giving up 2.6%, both pulling back from record highs.
More informationFurther Along the Tightening Path
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist June 15, 2018 Further Along the Tightening Path Equity markets were mixed this week alongside a solid run of U.S. economic data, a widely-expected Federal Reserve rate hike
More informationCash vs. Clunkers ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 14, Market Performance as of December 14, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 14, 2018 Cash vs. Clunkers Equity markets were mixed this week, with little in the way of major market-moving data or policy action. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, with
More informationCanada/US Steel Trade: Just the Non-Alternative Facts
A daily snapshot of economic trends and events Canada/US Steel Trade: Just the Non-Alternative Facts Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Canadian and U.S. trade in
More informationBreaking Out ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist June 8, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist June 8, 2018 Breaking Out Equity markets posted modest gains this week, with little in the way of major market-moving economic data. The S&P 500 rose 1.6% on broad-based
More informationThe January Effect ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist February 2, Market Performance as of February 1, 2019
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist February 2, 2019 The January Effect Equity markets rallied this week, stoked by a much more dovish-than-expected shift by the Federal Reserve. The S&P 500 rose 1.6%, while
More informationShow Me the Money? ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 7, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 7, 2018 Show Me the Money? Equity markets were thumped again this week alongside ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and signs that global growth is softening. The
More informationNerves of Steel ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist March 2, Market Performance as of March 2, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist March 2, 2018 Nerves of Steel Equity markets slumped this week on growing risk of a U.S.-led global trade spat. The S&P 500 fell 2.0%, with all sectors in the red, though
More informationPowell Play ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist November 30, Market Performance as of November 30, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist November 30, 2018 Powell Play Equity markets firmed this week, helped by a less hawkish tint to Fed commentary. The Nasdaq added more than 5%, while the S&P 500 jumped 4.8%
More informationBalance Sheet Normalization Looms
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 15, 2017 Balance Sheet Normalization Looms Equity markets posted modest gains this week, with hurricane-related distortions starting to creep into the U.S. economic
More informationCentral Banking on Some Relief
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist January 4, 2019 Central Banking on Some Relief Equity markets rallied this week on continued signals that North American central banks will lay off their tightening cycles
More informationStill Stumbling ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist November 16, Market Performance as of November 16, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist November 16, 2018 Still Stumbling Equity markets slumped this week as oil prices fell and the reality of cooling global growth continued to sink in. The S&P 500 slipped
More informationEarnings High. meeting did little to suggest anything but the central bank Current. Performance (percent)
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist October 19, 2018 Earnings High Equity markets steadied this week, with most indices firming after last week s deep selloff. The S&P 500 was flat, with a definitively defensive
More informationTSX Bucking the Bearishness
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist June 22, 2018 TSX Bucking the Bearishness Equity markets were mixed this week, with escalating trade concerns weighing on risk appetite. The S&P 500 dipped 0.6%, with gains
More informationAM Charts. Canadian Oil Discount Disappears in Double-time
A daily snapshot of economic trends and events Canadian Oil Discount Disappears in Double-time Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Less than three months ago, the grotesquely
More informationLittle Fun in Q1. underperforming. With the first quarter in the bag, here is a look at Current. Performance (percent)
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist March 29, 2018 Little Fun in Q1 Equity markets struggled again this week, with ongoing weakness in technology weighing on broader market sentiment. The S&P 500 fell 0.1%,
More informationTemperature Check ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 14, Market Performance as of September 14, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 14, 2018 Temperature Check Equity markets were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 adding 1.2% on the back of gains in telecom, technology and industrials.
More informationEarnings Juiced Buyback Boost?
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist October 27, 2017 Earnings Juiced Buyback Boost? Equity markets pushed further into record territory this week, with even the TSX getting into the act. The S&P 500 rose 0.2%
More informationNasdaq or Bust ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 21, Market Performance as of September 21, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist September 21, 2018 Nasdaq or Bust Equity markets rallied this week, flying in the face of an escalating trade war between the U.S. and China, while there was little progress
More informationThe VIX Is In. Performance (percent) Price 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year YTD 2017
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist February 9, 2018 The VIX Is In Equity markets slumped into correction territory this week, with a steep and broad-based selloff continuing across most major indices. The
More informationA Penny and Some Thoughts
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist August 12, 2016 A Penny and Some Thoughts Equity markets were mostly higher this week, with the three major U.S. equity indices famously closing at simultaneous record highs
More informationBlack Hole Can t Pull Markets Down
Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Economic Analyst April 12, 2019 Black Hole Can t Pull Markets Down The unrelenting stock market rally took a slight pause at the start of the week amid heightened trade tensions
More informationRed October ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist October 26, Market Performance as of October 26, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist October 26, 2018 Red October Stocks extended their slump this week, with the S&P 500 cracking well below its 200-day moving average and entering correction territory. The
More informationNot Everyone is Facepalming
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist July 27, 2018 Not Everyone is Facepalming Equity markets were mostly higher this week, with the S&P 500 adding 0.6%, backed a firm 4.1% real GDP growth print in the U.S.
More informationEconomic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries
Economic outlook Trump: Taxes, Trade & Treasuries January 17, 2017 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important
More informationEquity Rally Stalls. & gas shares, while rate-sensitive Current. utilities managed a modest gain (the Price 1 Week 1 Month 3 Months 1 Year YTD 2018
Carl Campus, Economist March 8, 2019 Equity Rally Stalls Equity markets were mired in red this week as weak economic data and caution from several central banks amped up global growth concerns, culminating
More informationEconomic outlook: Manitoba in the middle
Economic outlook: Manitoba in the middle May 17, 2016 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationThemes of 2018 ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 21, Market Performance as of December 21, 2018
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist December 21, 2018 Themes of 2018 Take 2017 and reverse all the plus-signs voila, 2018. Market performance this year was negative almost across the board, in stark contrast
More informationBearing Down on Trade
Carl Campus, Economist June 29, 2018 Bearing Down on Trade Equity markets couldn t overcome a deep Monday selloff, finishing broadly in the red despite a Friday rally. The late-week surge was most evident
More informationPeace & Doves ECONOMIC RESEARCH. Carl Campus, Economist April 27, Market Performance as of April 27, 2018
Carl Campus, Economist April 27, 2018 Peace & Doves War, huh, yeah What is it good for? Absolutely nothing... That was the sentiment on Friday as the leaders from North and South Korea pledged lasting
More informationBull Market: From Longest to Strongest?
Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist August 24, 2018 Bull Market: From Longest to Strongest? To much fanfare, the U.S. equity bull market became the longest (but not yet strongest) in post-war history this
More informationCrude for Thought. crude relentlessly jumped 13% this year alone to extend its highest level Current. Performance (percent)
Priscilla Thiagamoorthy, Economic Analyst April 20, 2018 Crude for Thought The S&P 500 snapped a three-day winning streak to end the week on a whimper as disappointing earnings by some of the world s largest
More informationMinding the Millennials
Minding the Millennials November 6, 2015 Sal Guatieri Senior Economist BMO Capital Markets Corp. (416) 359-5295 sal.guatieri@bmo.com Please refer to pages 10 to 12 for Important Disclosures. Echo Boom
More informationPage 2 of 7 March 2019
Page 2 of 7 March 2019 Energy and Materials Crude Oil Natural Gas (WTI) (Henry Hub) (AECO) Lumber US$/bbl US$/mmbtu US$/mbf 2006 66.10 6.74 5.76 290 2007 72.36 6.98 6.02 245 2008 99.57 8.86 7.79 215 2009
More informationEconomic outlook: Trade War... and Peace
Economic outlook: Trade War... and Peace October 2, 218 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-39-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the previous issue of Rates Scenario (on January 10 th ):
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates February 7, 2019 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationEconomic outlook: Trade War... and Peace
Economic outlook: Trade War... and Peace November 1, 18 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 16-9-887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationFederal Budget. Overview Now Comes the Hard Part
Highlights and analysis of the Canadian federal budget High Times Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist robert.kavcic@bmo.com 416-359-8329
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the last issue of Rates Scenario:
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates March 2, 2018 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationPage 8 of 18 Focus September 16, 2016
Page 8 of 18 Focus September 1, 1 What s Negative about Negative Rates? Financial markets are starting to fret over the possibility of less-friendly central bank policies whether more Fed tightening or
More informationFixed Income Strategy
April 2018 Fixed Income Strategy It Looks Like the 3% Target on the 10-Year Treasury Yield Will Have to Wait Richard Belley, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist After months of relative underperformance, fixed
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the last issue of Rates Scenario:
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates April 5, 2018 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationOur Picks % Toronto (TSX) % Dow Jones (US) %
Recommended List Performance (Jan. 1 2009 - Dec. 31 2009) Our Picks - +75.85% Toronto (TSX) - +30.6% Dow Jones (US) - +18.8% OUR PICKS vs. THE INDEX Financials 39.4% 28% Oil / Gas 36.3% 26% Base Materials
More informationA monthly commodity watch December 2018
A monthly commodity watch December 2018 Steep Crude Decline Delivers Late-Year Hit Economic and geopolitical uncertainties linger into year-end The BMO Capital Markets Commodity Price Index plunged 10.0%
More informationSpecial Report. Overview. What s in the Deal, and Why It Matters
A timely analysis of economic issues October 1, 2018 How Do You Spell Relief? USMCA Prepared by BMO Capital Markets Economic Research Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the last issue of Rates Scenario (on December 15 th ):
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates December 22, 2017 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationMCE Deepwater Development 2015
MCE Deepwater Development 2015 U.S. Shale Oil Is Pushing Deepwater to the Right March 26, 2015 Daniel Boyd, CFA 212-885-4197 daniel.boyd@bmo.com Refer to pages 14-17 for Important Disclosures, including
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the previous issue of Rates Scenario (on October 3 rd ):
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates November 12, 2018 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationWestern Leaders Forum November 26, 2014 An Economic Outlook: Global to Local
Western Leaders Forum November 26, 2014 An Economic Outlook: Global to Local Douglas Porter, Chief Economist and Managing Director BMO Financial Group Ontario: A place to grow? November 26, 2014 Douglas
More informationTalking Points. The latest view on the economy. May 11, 2018
Talking Points The latest view on the economy May 11, 218 The Law of Small Numbers Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 The economic data generally took a back seat
More informationState Economic Scorecard
A quarterly ranking of state economic performance February 2014 Oil Boom Leaving its Mark Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist robert.kavcic@bmo.com 416-359-8329 The U.S. economy continues to show signs of
More informationPage 10 of 20 Focus November 30, 2018
Page 10 of 20 Focus November 30, 2018 Reservations over Reserves Scarcity Since the turn of the year, the U.S. federal funds market has encountered recurrent tightening pressure. Relative to the demand
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the previous issue of Rates Scenario (on February 7 th ):
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates March 7, 2019 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the last issue of Rates Scenario:
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates June 15, 2018 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationSeven Months Into a 40% USD Devaluation
Seven Months Into a 40% USD Devaluation Montréal July 27, 2017 Mark Steele Quantitative/Technical Analyst BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc. (416) 359-4641 Mark.Steele@bmo.com Tiberiu Stoichita Associate BMO Capital
More informationRates Scenario. Forecast Summary (averages) Since the previous issue of Rates Scenario (on November 12 th ):
An outlook on key interest and foreign exchange rates December 17, 2018 Michael Gregory, CFA, Deputy Chief Economist michael.gregory@bmo.com 416-359-4747 Jennifer Lee, Senior Economist jennifer.lee@bmo.com
More informationSecurities lending liquidity continues to increase and, generally speaking, lendable supply in South Africa is plentiful
Securities lending liquidity continues to increase and, generally speaking, lendable supply in South Africa is plentiful by the leading index providers (for example, MSCI and FTSE) as an emerging market,
More informationGlobal Macro & North American Equities. Montréal
Global Macro & North American Equities Montréal September 10, 2014 Mark Steele Quantitative & Technical Analyst (416) 359-4641 mark.steele@bmo.com Priced September 8 Source for all data and graphics herein:
More informationBOND MODEL COMMENTARY FOR APRIL 9, 2007
BOND MODEL COMMENTARY FOR APRIL 9, 2007 Charts and technical commentary by David Chapman Union Securities Ltd, 33 Yonge Street, Suite 901, Toronto, Ontario, M5E 1G4 fax (416) 604-0533, (416) 604-0557,
More informationPortfolio, Action & Research Team
Portfolio, Action & esearch Team Michael H. Herring, CFA, CMT, Investment Strategist January, Where to Find Inflation Protection Since the onset of the financial crisis in 7, central banks around the world
More informationThe Psychology of Investing
The Psychology of Investing Ryan Nobbs, Investment Advisor BMO Nesbitt Burns Market Historically Far Stronger with Democrat Presidents Average S&P 500 Gains since 1928 Democrat Republican 10,2% 1,1% Adminsitration
More informationHighlights from the 17-April CoT survey of IMM leveraged funds
Highlights from the 17-April CoT survey of IMM leveraged funds Greg Anderson, CFA, PhD - Global head of FX strategy gregory.anderson@bmo.com +1 212 65 149 April 2, 218 Long-GBP is the most concentrated
More informationPessimism, Skepticism, Optimism, Euphoria
December 2017 Pessimism, Skepticism, Optimism, Euphoria It has been said that bull markets are born on pessimism (2009), grow on skepticism, mature on optimism, and die on euphoria. I am not sure where
More informationEquity Strategy. Further Reducing Interest Rate Sensitivity Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist. September 2013
September 13 Equity Strategy Further Reducing Interest Rate Sensitivity Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist What is your portfolio s interest rate sensitivity? This may not be the most gripping way
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review August 14 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department 1 Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report Key Issues Global
More informationTalking Points. The latest view on the economy. March 16, 2018
Talking Points The latest view on the economy March 16, 218 Top O the Market to Ya Douglas Porter, CFA, Chief Economist douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 It has not been a kind run for the Canadian dollar,
More informationHighlights from the 10-July CoT survey of IMM leveraged funds
Highlights from the 1-July CoT survey of IMM leveraged funds Greg Anderson, CFA, PhD - Global head of FX strategy gregory.anderson@bmo.com +1 212 65 149 July 13, 218 Short-NZD the biggest side with short-eur
More informationA look ahead at the Canadian and American economies October 10, 2017
A look ahead at the Canadian and American economies October, 7 In Sync After a stellar year, Canadian economic growth looks to have peaked and will moderate in the year ahead. Real GDP expanded.7% y/y
More informationBMO Monthly High Income Fund II (the Fund )
(the Fund ) For the period ended June 30, 2014 Manager: BMO Investments Inc. (the Manager or BMOII ) Portfolio Manager: Guardian Capital LP (the portfolio manager ) 2014 Semi-Annual Management Report of
More informationA look ahead at the Canadian and American economies January 17, 2019
A look ahead at the Canadian and American economies January 7, 9 The Big Fade The Canadian economy performed largely as expected in 8 with estimated annual growth of around.% falling just shy of our call
More informationRetiring Well Key Financial Considerations. Presented by: Michael Kawchuk
Retiring Well Key Financial Considerations Presented by: Michael Kawchuk July 13 rd, 2016 Agenda Background Interest Rates Pension / Non pension Decisions Plan / Other Considerations Most Common Mistakes
More informationMarkit economic overview
Markit Economics Markit economic overview PMI data highlight growing variations in likely policy paths 9 June 2015 Global growth slows for second month running in May Global economic growth edged lower
More informationU.S. 10-Year Treasury
INVESTMENT RESEARCH MONTHLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE Hank Cunningham April 9, 2018 Interest Rate Summary 29-Mar18 29-Dec-17 30-Dec-16 31-Dec-15 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 U.S. 3-Month T-Bill 1.71% 1.38%
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
Improving US Household and Business Fundamentals Point to Higher Sales Ahead Emerging markets drive global sales gains, amid temporary US weakness. CONTACTS Carlos Gomes 1..73 Scotiabank Economics carlos.gomes@scotiabank.com
More informationMONTHLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE
MONTHLY FIXED INCOME UPDATE Hank Cunningham October 7, 2015 Interest Rate Summary 30-Sep-15 31-Dec-14 31-Dec-13 31-Dec-12 31-Dec-11 U.S. 3-Month T-Bill 0.00% 0.04% 0.07% 0.04% 0.01% 2-Year Treasury 0.63
More informationThe Importance of Active Portfolio Management Risk Management in an Evolving Market Environment
Risk Management in an Evolving Market Environment Stéphane Rochon, CFA, Equity Strategist Richard Belley, CFA, Fixed Income Strategist Stock volatility has increased substantially so far in 2018, and understandably,
More informationAnother Milestone on the Road to Policy Normalization
LEADERSHIP SERIES OCTOBER 2017 A feature article from our U.S. partners Another Milestone on the Road to Policy Normalization The twin tailwinds of strong earnings and easing financial conditions are unlikely
More informationAverage Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage
Average Household Debt: $132,000 - Not Counting Mortgage August 31, 2016 by Gary Halbert of Halbert Wealth Management 1. Fed Chair Janet Yellen Ready to Raise Interest Rates... Maybe 2. Yellen s #2 Man
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
Improving Canadian Auto Loan Market Fundamentals CONTACTS Global sales accelerate further. Subprime auto loans decline in Canada, but lending to higher credit scores picks up. Canadian subprime loans account
More informationWill Stimulus Trump Protectionism?
A look ahead at the Canadian and American economies November, Will Stimulus Trump Protectionism? United States With the election finally over, we can now take stock of the possible impact. President-elect
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationJust How Strong is the U.S. Labor Market?
Craig Holke Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Just How Strong is the U.S. Labor Market? September 11, 2018 Key takeaways» The U.S. labor market is currently
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
Luxury Sales Accelerate In China CONTACTS US drives global sales higher in March. Canadian sales remain on a stronger-than-expected trajectory. German brands are the luxury leaders in China, and will benefit
More informationEconomic Outlook Spring 2014
Economic Outlook Spring 2014 Accelerating Economic Growth Ahead FROM ANTHONY CHAN, PHD, CHIEF ECONOMIST FOR CHASE Summary After a strong 2013 finish with U.S. and European stock markets posting double-digit
More informationA look ahead at the Canadian and American economies March 29, 2019
A look ahead at the Canadian and American economies March 9, 9 Green Look United States Tuning out a drumbeat of dreary data, equity bulls have stampeded back, with the worst December since 9 followed
More informationA look ahead at the Canadian and American economies February 21, 2018
A look ahead at the Canadian and American economies February, 8 The Stimulus Games United States The economy grew for a th quarter in a row in Q and by a solid.% annual rate. The current expansion ranks
More information2015 Semi-Annual Management Report of Fund Performance
(the Fund ) For the six-month period ended March 31, 2015 (the period ) Manager: BMO Investments Inc. (the Manager or BMOII ) Portfolio manager: BMO Asset Management Inc., Toronto, Ontario (the portfolio
More informationKey Takeaways. What it may mean for investors WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS. Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst
Luis Alvarado Investment Strategy Analyst WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS December 12, 2017 The Mystery of Inflation and What Lies Ahead Key Takeaways» As most investors know, inflation
More information3.9% Good MornING Asia - 6 April Asia week ahead: Trade war threats weighs on central banks
Economic and Financial Analysis Bundle Good MornING Asia - Global Economics The fear of a global trade war weighs on Asian central bank policy tightening. We expect Singapore and Korea to keep policies
More informationEconomic outlook: Time for an oil change? June 2, Douglas Porter, CFA. Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group
Economic outlook: Time for an oil change? June 2, 2015 Douglas Porter, CFA Chief Economist, BMO Financial Group douglas.porter@bmo.com 416-359-4887 Please refer to the next page for Important Disclosures
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens. November 14 th 2016
Global PMI Global economic growth kicks higher at start of fourth quarter but outlook darkens November 14 th 2016 2 Global PMI at 11-month high in October Global economic growth kicked higher at the start
More informationPage 9 of 19 Focus June 30, 2017
Page 9 of 19 Focus June 3, 217 Canada 1: 1 Economic Highs and Lows In honour of the 1 th anniversary of Confederation, we dug deep into the history books to look at the highs and lows of the Canadian economy
More informationBMO FinTech Sector TACTIC Fund
BMO FinTech Sector TACTIC Fund Introduction FinTech s Growing Influence on Financial Services What is FinTech? The phrase FinTech, first coined by a New York banker in 1972, refers to the intersection
More informationFed described the economy as "slow" and said employers remained reluctant to create jobs and Inflation "somewhat low.
08 Nov 2010 UNITED STATES The ISM manufacturing index rose to 56.9 in October from 54.4 in September, led by growth in autos, computers and exported goods. The ISM non-manufacturing index rose to 54.3
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMICS GLOBAL AUTO REPORT
North American Auto Production Begins To Rebound CONTACTS Global sales gains moderate as purchases decline temporarily in Asia. US inventories fall below a year earlier, setting the stage for a rebound
More information