Weekly Economic Update

Transcription

1 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January

2 Weekly Economic Update % 2008-Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q4 Sunday, 29 January 2012 Recent Macroeconomic Developments Global US growth gathers pace; eurozone comes to grip with further downgrades The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace for nearly two years in the 4th quarter of Real GDP growth rate rose from 1.8% in the 3 rd quarter of 2011 to 2.8% in the 4 th quarter, albeit lower than the 3% forecasted by analysts. The economy was largely boosted by rebuilding of inventories, without which the economy grew at a mere 0.8%, a sharp step down from the preceding period's 3.2% pace, pointing to a weaker domestic demand. This might represent a risk of slower business spending in early 2012 even though overall opinion suggests that there was no sign businesses were uncomfortable yet with the amount of inventory they had on hand (Thomson Reuters). In contrast, Europe s economic woes were confounded by further downgrades of sovereign credit ratings of some eurozone countries by the Fitch rating agency. This came at a time when Greece is yet again at the receiving end of controversy surrounding the deadlock in negotiations with private sector holders of its debt as well as widespread speculations that it should hand over control of its finances to EU officials in Brussels. Despite the downgrades and the ongoing debt crisis, the euro is unlikely to slip further as the 26 out of 27 EU countries would step up efforts to finalise the fiscal compact agreed upon last month US: % change in real GDP 2.8 Fitch ratings To From Outlook Belgium AA AA+ Negative Cyprus BBB- BBB Negative Ireland A- A- Negative Italy A- A+ Negative Slovenia A AA- Negative Spain A AA- Negative Source: Thomson Reuters, Fitch 2

3 Weekly Economic Update 30-Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-12 Sunday, 29 January 2012 COMMODITIES Brent Oil Price (US$/barrel) Gold Price (US$/ounce) As Jan 27 (US$) Current Week Ago Weekly Change Brent Oil (barrel) Gold (ounce) Silver (ounce) Copper (pound) Aluminium (kilo) Source: Thomson Reuters 3

4 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Dec Dec Dec Dec Dec Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan Jan-12 Currencies Current ( 27 Jan 2012) Week Ago Weekly Change International $1 $1 (%) Euro GBP Yen CNY INR CHF GCC AED BHD KWD OMR QAR SAR Euro, Yen & Pound vs Dollar Euro (LHS) Pound (LHS) Yen (RHS) The Dollar Index Source: Thomson Reuters 4

5 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January 2012 Stock markets DowJones CAC % 3, % 12, NASDAQ 1.07% 2,817 FTSE % 5, S&P % 1,316 Nikkei % 8,841 Source: Thomson Reuters 5

6 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January 2012 Stock markets Abu Dhabi 2.28% ,, Kuwait 0.93% , Doha 0.32% 8,435 Muscat 0.25% 5, Dubai 5.88% 1,406 Saudi 1.55% 6, Source: Zawya 6

7 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January 2012 Stock markets Stock Exchange Current A Week Ago Weekly Change (27 Jan) (%) Dow Jones (US) 12,660 12, Nasdaq (US) 2,817 2, S&P500 (US) 1,316 1, CAC40 (FR) 3,319 3, FTSE100 (UK) 5,733 5, Nikkei225 (JP) 8,841 8, Abu Dhabi 2,390 2, Bahrain 1,138 1, Doha 8,435 8, Dubai 1,406 1, Kuwait 5,852 5, Muscat 5,596 5, Saudi Arabia 6,477 6, Source: Thomson Reuters and Zawya 7

8 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January 2012 Miscellaneous GULF projects Projects planned or under way Projects planned or under way Change on week (%) Projects planned or under way Change on year (%) 25-Jan-11 ($m) ($m) ($m) Bahrain 63,857 63, , Kuwait 176, , , Oman 117, , , Qatar 218, , , Saudi Arabia 747, , , UAE 581, , , GCC 1,905,366 1,902, ,898, Iran 311, , , Iraq 366, , , Gulf Total 2,583,405 2,574, ,465, Source: MEED 8

9 Weekly Economic Update Sunday, 29 January 2012 Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) is a Bahrain registered bank whose vision is to be the leading knowledge-based infrastructure investment bank in the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. Its mission is to mobilise local and global capital to accelerate the execution of infrastructure projects via innovative custom made financial solutions. This Weekly Economic Update has been prepared by staff in the Research Department of Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C. (c) under the general direction of Dr. Nahed Taher, Founder & CEO of Gulf One Investment Bank. The Research team comprises: Dr. Mohammed Salisu Chief Economist Gulf One Investment Bank m.salisu@gulf1bank.com Ms. Lobna Bousrih Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank l.bousrih@gulf1bank.com Ms. Sana Harrabi Research Analyst Gulf One Investment Bank s.harrabi@gulf1bank.com All comments and enquiries about this Economic Update should be sent to Dr. Mohammed Salisu at the above mentioned address. Disclaimer This Weekly Economic Update was prepared by Gulf One Investment Bank B.S.C (c), ( Gulf One ) and is of a general nature and is not intended to provide specific advice on any matter, nor is it intended to be comprehensive or to address the circumstances of any particular individual or entity. This material is based on current public information that we consider reliable at the time of publication, but it does not provide tailored investment advice or recommendations. It has been prepared without regard to the financial circumstances and objectives of persons and/or organisations who receive it. No one should act on such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. In addition, the views expressed in this Economic Update do not necessarily represent the views of the Management or Board of Directors of Gulf One Investment Bank. This Weekly Economic Update or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the prior written consent of Gulf One. 9