Portfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
|
|
- Lucy Moody
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) , Joey Madere, (901) , David Hydrick, (901) , August 24, 2015 Weighing the Known vs. the Unknown By Michael Gibbs The abrupt 6.3% four-day decline from the Monday August 17 th close to the Friday August 21 st close has left in its wake a technically damaged market and damaged investor emotions. The market was vulnerable and global growth fears were the trigger: The equity market has been stuck in a sideways trading pattern for approximately nine months. The inability to push higher has been due to slowing earnings trends, the rallying dollar, the collapse in the price of crude, issues with Greece, uncertainty regarding the impact of the move to tighten by the Fed (whenever it happens), and, now renewed fears over global growth especially in the emerging markets. After a 220% price gain off the 2009 bear market bottom, which coincides with the S&P 500 s P/E multiple climbing from under 10x to 18x (i.e. stocks are not cheap), the inability of the market to move higher is not a major surprise with all the headwinds. The loss of momentum and challenges left stocks in a vulnerable state with elevated odds that any shock item could lead to sharp pullbacks. Global growth fears proved to be such a shock item. Much uncertainty has arisen and the one thing equity markets detest is uncertainty. The rapid sell-off and the reasons for the sell-off suggest a rocky ride ahead in the coming months for equity investors as they search for answers. As the summer turns to fall, the equity market enters a period that has historically produced some of the most trying times for investors. Absent a quick defusing of the uncertainty, the odds are elevated for fireworks as the equity market moves through these months this year. Yet, just as the fall of the year has coincided with market declines, the weakness has also set the table for what has been historically the best period of the year (November- April). Even during the credit crisis the S&P 500 gained 17.67% from the low point on November 20, 2008 to the close on April 30, Granted there were some violent back and forth moves along the way during that period. Luckily, a repeat of the type of price swings of that period is a low probability now. So, based on our belief that this bull market has yet to run its course, any weakness ahead should present opportunity. In preparation for what might lie ahead, it is best to weigh the known versus the unknown to set your course of action. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
2 The Issues to monitor in the months ahead: The main market influences, in our opinion, in the coming period will be China (economic, currency, impact on its neighbors and the world), global economic growth, impact of any Fed action (or inaction), collateral damage from the fall-off of energy prices, and earnings (especially in the U.S.). For investors, assessing how these issues may transpire, and the ramifications on the equity market, can help set a risk vs. reward scenario. Monitoring the progression of the issues of the day will alter the risk vs reward and influence portfolio moves. The Knowns vs. the Unknowns China: Economy Known: China s economy has weakened. This is a big deal and is one reason the market reacted so violently on the downside. Unknown: How bad the economy is and what the impact will be on the rest of the world. Thoughts: Although last quarter reported GDP growth in China was 7%, few believe the number. Also, recent data suggests the economy continues to weaken (PMI data on Friday August 21). At this point, it is too soon to pronounce the economy dead. The weaker yuan could help exports in the period ahead. Also, although the economy has not reacted to policy response by the PBOC as of yet, the central bank is likely to attempt additional measures before they let the economy collapse. New measures are likely to get a favorable equity market reaction Chinese Real GDP (YoY%) Global Economic Growth China s impact on the rest of the world: China has grown to the second-largest economy in the world. It has also been responsible for a great deal of global growth in recent years. Known: The direct negative economic impact on the developed world, as a whole, should not be dramatic. Certain key economies, such as Germany and Japan, will likely be negatively impacted to a greater degree. Yet, as of now, the weight of the evidence continues to point to global growth in the developed world. Source: Equity Portfolio Strategy, FactSet. International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
3 The impact on the emerging world is greater as substantial trade occurs between China and its Southeast Asia neighbors. Many other developing economies, reliant on natural resource exporters, will also feel the impact. Unknown: Same as above, a lack of clarity on how severe the economic weakness in China really is remains in question. We simply need more time and data to assess the extent. Summary: More time must pass and each data point assessed. The equity market will react to every data point. It will then settle and await additional data. The developed world still appears positioned to grow. Although pockets of weakness in the emerging world may slow overall growth, a return to recession in the developed world appears less likely, for now. The vast majority of bear markets have coincided with recessions. Known: Yuan has weakened. Unknown: What will be the impact on China s Southeast Asia neighbors? Investors have not forgotten the impact currency issues in Southeast Asia had on the world financial markets (the U.S. declined 20%). Known: A repeat of seems less likely. Most of these countries currencies are not pegged to the US dollar as they were then. Currency reserves (ability to fight attacks on currency and pay back debts) are much larger now vs. then. Also, the currency market of these economies are deeper than they were in the previous period Known: After the move by China many of their neighbors have devalued their currencies to remain competitive The Unknown: Economies in the region have external debt balances especially debt denominated in U.S. dollars. As their currencies decline especially vs. the U.S. dollar the amount of debt they must pay back increases. With many of these economies suffering from capital flight and slower revenues from falling exports, (the main export of many are commodity products energy being the largest) the inability to pay back debts will increase. A default, or fear of default, could trigger angst resulting in declines in U.S. equities. Summary: The risk of financial issues in the emerging world is elevated. If multiple blowups occur around the globe as a result of external debt issues, currency issues, or civil unrest, there is a high potential for sharp declines in the equity market. We highlighted that most bear markets coincide with recessions. Yet, there have bear markets when no recession occurred. One such bear market was in 1998 as the Asian currency crisis eventually triggered a 20% decline in U.S. stocks. We don t feel such a decline is a risk currently. For what it is worth, the equity market returned to a new all-time within four months of the previous alltime high in The Fed: Known: The Fed is going to move at some point International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
4 Unknown: When and by how much they will move. What the impact on the financial markets will be. Thoughts: If the financial markets remain under-pressure, and if additional data points suggest questionable economic growth, the Fed will be less likely to move on rates in September. Regardless of when they do move, the higher probability of slower, rather than faster U.S. growth, suggests a slow rate of tightening. In this scenario, the likelihood of rapidly rising interest rates (bad for stocks and bonds) are much less likely. Earnings: Earnings are the key driver of stock prices over the long term Known: Earnings trends have weakened. 1Q and 2Q for 2015 produced year-over-year declines. Expectations are for earnings to decline again year-over-year in 3Q. Unknown: When earnings will stabilize and resume growth. Known: Energy has been a big reason for the decline in earnings, as has the rise in the U.S. dollar. For example in 2Q15, earnings for the Energy sector declined 56.4%, according to FactSet. Also according to FactSet, if energy were removed, earnings actually increased by 5.7%. The impact of the dollar is tougher to quantify, but based on general company guidance currency is having a significant impact. The recent resumption in the sell-off in crude oil prices will continue to weigh on activity in the Energy sector. Also, the recent move higher in the dollar (and potential for a continued climb) will weigh on earnings. Yet, the future impact of both of these items should be less in the periods ahead than in the most recent periods. Current expectations call for a return of earnings growth as early as 4Q15. For 2016, current expectations are for earnings growth to return to double-digit levels. This may be tough to envision, but even a resumption of half that growth rate will lessen the negative impact the slowing trend will have on stocks. Summary: As of now, we are comfortable believing the market is going through a normal correction of what remains a bull market. Yet, we acknowledge the issues of the day could alter this belief if a larger threat to global economic growth develops, or if a financial event occurs. Regardless of the outcome, it is wise for all investors to prepare for various what if situations. Previously, we highlighted the issues we feel are most important above. The following is a suggested course of action. Set Your Course of Action The big issue for long-term investors will be a determination if the issues are great enough to trigger the next bear market. Given that most bear markets coincide with economic recessions, make macro data the most important variable to monitor. This class of investor also needs to decide if they are adequately diversified to ride it out or do they need (or desire) to make moves along the way, if a bear market does develop. If you are diversified enough to ride it out, don t over think it and attempt to avoid getting caught up in the emotion of the day. If you desire to make some changes along the way, monitor the items we highlighted above. As each data point presents a challenge (or is proven to be less problematic) make your moves accordingly. Try not to make moves as a International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
5 reflex reaction to your emotions. Remember, even in declining markets counter-trend rallies occur quite frequently and are often quite large. During the last bear market, we count numerous counter-trend rallies that produced price percentage gains in the upper single digits to low double digits. In the final phase of the move, in late 2008 and early 2009, we count two 20% rallies. In other words, making moves (if you chose to lighten positions) is better done during the reflex rallies as opposed to cascading sell-offs. For investors with shorter-term time frames, become familiar with the issues of the day and monitor the progression. Set an expectation for a potential trading range for the market, or you can use the ranges we suggest (see below). Re-evaluate the ranges with each progressive data point on the issues. Widen the range as the data flow becomes more negative and vice-versa on positive flow of data. Follow a disciplined approach to make your moves as the market trades within your expected range. Aggressive types can make moves as the market hits extreme levels of the expected range. Less aggressive types should wait for confirmation the market will hold (the downside) or fail (at the upside) before making moves. Confirmation is often as simple as a follow-though move to the initial rally off the low or follow-through decline to the initial failure at resistance. Current Range Expected for the S&P 500: Combining fundamental, psychological, and technical rationale. Fundamental: Currently, we are maintaining our expected S&P 500 P/E range of 16.5x to 18x. This results in a range of about over the next five or so months (assuming current year-end projected earnings of $119 come to fruition). Over the next months our current range is about 1950 to around We are using $125 for 2016 year-end earnings vs. current consensus of $131. Earnings data is from FactSet and may differ from earnings reflected by other services. A word of caution, drawing a line in the sand at these absolute prices is foolish. Use them as a guideline of an area near where the S&P 500 is fairly valued. During volatile markets, equities are likely to overshoot realistic fair values. As calm returns, the proper value is typically found. Psychological: Investor mood dictates the P/E they assign to current earnings (see chart below). When issues of the day are few (or generally more positive) the P/Es assigned in normal market gyrations are sometimes more narrow. When issues are heightened, or if the issues are potentially more problematic, the gyrations will become larger. Our current tight range of x is rapidly approaching a point where we believe it needs to be widened. But for now, we will stay with the range. Technical: The S&P 500 sliced through obvious support levels as it moved down last week (8/18-8/21). As each level of support fails, turn to the next level to see if it will provide support. This is one reason we suggest those more disciplined less aggressive types wait for the market to supply some evidence a support level becomes more likely to hold. Next levels to watch: Horizontal support near the close of trading on Friday the 21 st (1970) should be monitored. This is near the reaction low prices on December 16, 2014 (1972) and February 2, 2015 (1980). As a reminder, don t become overly focused on the exact number because somewhere near the level still qualifies it as support. International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
6 The main level of our focus for this decline is near This would be a 61.8% retracement of the October 2014 low to the May 2015 peak. We will not go into great detail other than to say we find using retracement levels a useful technical analysis practice. More importantly, the level is near a 16.5x P/E, which is our current base case low P/E. For what it is worth, the S&P 500 bottomed last October at 15.85x P/E. That decline was also caused by global growth worries due to China. If the market returns to a similar P/E, due to the current global growth worries, the S&P 500 would likely trade at about In summary: The heat has turned up and equities have hit a rough patch that may carry forward in the coming months. Despite the risk, we continue to believe the current bull market has not runs its course. For this reason, the potential volatility in the weeks and months ahead is most likely a good opportunity. Although this is our expectation, we are fully aware that if the current issues in China (economic and currency byproducts) continue to grow, a much more problematic outcome might occur. Yet, if this turns out to be the case it will be a building process with time. The market will go through declines then counter-trend rallies as the process unfolds. See our report: Bull Market Tops for illustrations of how the last five bull market tops developed. For now, monitoring the situation as it progresses is the most appropriate course of action. For all investors, decide what you wish to accomplish and analyze how you are positioned. Consider all the possible outcomes, good or bad, and plot a plan of action. Lack of preparation will result in emotional moves a recipe for disappointment. International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
7 Important Investor Disclosures Raymond James & Associates (RJA) is a FINRA member firm and is responsible for the preparation and distribution of research created in the United States. Raymond James & Associates is located at The Raymond James Financial Center, 880 Carillon Parkway, St. Petersburg, FL 33716, (727) Non-U.S. affiliates, which are not FINRA member firms, include the following entities that are responsible for the creation and distribution of research in their respective areas: in Canada, Raymond James Ltd., Suite 2100, 925 West Georgia Street, Vancouver, BC V6C 3L2, (604) ; in Latin America, Raymond James Latin America, Ruta 8, km 17, 500, Montevideo, Uruguay, ; in Europe, Raymond James Euro Equities SAS (also trading as Raymond James International), 40, rue La Boetie, 75008, Paris, France, , and Raymond James Financial International Ltd., Broadwalk House, 5 Appold Street, London, England EC2A 2AG, This document is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country, or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation. The securities discussed in this document may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This research is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Past performance is not a guide to future performance, future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of original capital may occur. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For clients in the United States: Any foreign securities discussed in this report are generally not eligible for sale in the U.S. unless they are listed on a U.S. exchange. This report is being provided to you for informational purposes only and does not represent a solicitation for the purchase or sale of a security in any state where such a solicitation would be illegal. Investing in securities of issuers organized outside of the U.S., including ADRs, may entail certain risks. The securities of non-u.s. issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to the reporting requirements of, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. There may be limited information available on such securities. Investors who have received this report may be prohibited in certain states or other jurisdictions from purchasing the securities mentioned in this report. Please ask your Financial Advisor for additional details and to determine if a particular security is eligible for purchase in your state. The information provided is as of the date above and subject to change, and it should not be deemed a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Certain information has been obtained from third-party sources we consider reliable, but we do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete. Persons within the Raymond James family of companies may have information that is not available to the contributors of the information contained in this publication. Raymond James, including affiliates and employees, may execute transactions in the securities listed in this publication that may not be consistent with the ratings appearing in this publication. Additional information is available on request. International securities involve additional risks such as currency fluctuations, differing financial accounting standards, and possible political and economic instability. These risks are greater in emerging markets. Small-cap stocks generally involve greater risks. Dividends are not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Past performance may not be indicative of future results. Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, and charges and expenses of mutual funds and exchange-traded funds carefully before investing. The prospectus contains this and other information about mutual funds and exchange traded funds. The prospectus is available from your financial advisor and should be read carefully before investing. For clients in the United Kingdom: For clients of Raymond James & Associates (London Branch) and Raymond James Financial International Limited (RJFI): This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in the FCA rules or persons described in Articles 19(5) (Investment professionals) or 49(2) (High net worth companies, unincorporated associations etc) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005 (as amended) or any other person to whom this promotion may lawfully be directed. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
8 For clients of Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd.: This report is for the use of professional investment advisers and managers and is not intended for use by clients. For purposes of the Financial Conduct Authority requirements, this research report is classified as independent with respect to conflict of interest management. RJA, RJFI, and Raymond James Investment Services, Ltd. are authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority in the United Kingdom. For clients in France: This document and any investment to which this document relates is intended for the sole use of the persons to whom it is addressed, being persons who are Eligible Counterparties or Professional Clients as described in Code Monétaire et Financier and Règlement Général de l Autorité des Marchés Financiers. It is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons and may not be relied upon by such persons and is therefore not intended for private individuals or those who would be classified as Retail Clients. For clients of Raymond James Euro Equities: Raymond James Euro Equities is authorised and regulated by the Autorité de Contrôle Prudentiel et de Résolution and the Autorité des Marchés Financiers. For institutional clients in the European Economic Area (EEA) outside of the United Kingdom: This document (and any attachments or exhibits hereto) is intended only for EEA institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted. For Canadian clients: This report is not prepared subject to Canadian disclosure requirements, unless a Canadian analyst has contributed to the content of the report. In the case where there is Canadian analyst contribution, the report meets all applicable IIROC disclosure requirements. Proprietary Rights Notice: By accepting a copy of this report, you acknowledge and agree as follows: This report is provided to clients of Raymond James only for your personal, noncommercial use. Except as expressly authorized by Raymond James, you may not copy, reproduce, transmit, sell, display, distribute, publish, broadcast, circulate, modify, disseminate or commercially exploit the information contained in this report, in printed, electronic or any other form, in any manner, without the prior express written consent of Raymond James. You also agree not to use the information provided in this report for any unlawful purpose. This is RJA client relea sable research This report and its contents are the property of Raymond James and are protected by applicable copyright, trade secret or other intellectual property laws (of the United States and other countries). United States law, 17 U.S.C. Sec.501 et seq, provides for civil and criminal penalties for copyright infringement. No copyright claimed in incorporated U.S. government works. International Headquarters:The Raymond James Financial Center 880 Carillon Parkway St. Petersburg, Florida
Technical Analysis Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com David Hydrick, (901) 579-4812, David.Hydrick@RaymondJames.com
More informationPortfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, (901) 529-5331, Joey.Madere@RaymondJames.com
More informationU.S. Equities: Off To A Terrible Start In 2016
Portfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy Group, (901) 5794346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, (901) 5295331,
More informationPortfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Portfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (91) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, (91) 529-5331, Joey.Madere@RaymondJames.com
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com December 7, 2016:Revised Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" We are coming to the end of yet
More informationTechnical Analysis Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates P. Arthur Huprich, CMT, (727) 567-2494, Art.Huprich@RaymondJames.com March 8, 2013 Weekly - Bullish on Dividend Growing Companies Friday Morning 03/08...principle
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com October 12, 2015 "Squiggly Line Cartoons" In last Thursday s Morning Tack, Jeff Saut referenced
More informationPortfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, CFA, (901) 529-5331, Joey.Madere@RaymondJames.com
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com January 8, 2018 : The Curve Much has been written recently about the
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Cerner Corporation (CERN-NASDAQ) Nicholas Jansen, (727) 567-2446, Nicholas.Jansen@RaymondJames.com Andrew Cooper, Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2295, Andrew.Cooper@RaymondJames.com Healthcare Information Technology
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Cerner Corporation (CERN-NASDAQ) Nicholas Jansen, (727) 567-2446, Nicholas.Jansen@RaymondJames.com Andrew Cooper, Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2295, Andrew.Cooper@RaymondJames.com Healthcare Information Technology
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Cepheid (CPHD-NASDAQ) Nicholas Jansen, (727) 567-2446, Nicholas.Jansen@RaymondJames.com Andrew Cooper, Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2295, Andrew.Cooper@RaymondJames.com Diagnostics Officially Plans to Develop
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com September 14, 2015 "It's Someone Else's Money"... The analogy between
More informationCanada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. Fission Uranium Corp. Second Batch of Angled Holes Confirm Main Trend Widens to East.
FCU-TSXV David Sadowski 604.659.8255 david.sadowski@raymondjames.ca Milton-Andres Bernal MFRM (Associate) 604.659.8028 milton.bernal@raymondjames.ca Mining Uranium Second Batch of Angled Holes Confirm
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Intel Corporation (INTC-NASDAQ) Hans Mosesmann, (212) 856-5404, Hans.Mosesmann@RaymondJames.com Melissa Fairbanks, Sr. Res. Assoc., (727) 567-1081, Melissa.Fairbanks@RaymondJames.com Semiconductors High
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com December 18, 2017 : A History Lesson The bull market needs a pediatrician,
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com October 29, 2018 "The Perfect Storm" Linda Greenlaw, warning Billy over
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com April 23, 2015 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD
More informationPortfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, (901) 529-5331, Joey.Madere@RaymondJames.com
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com September 10, 2018 "Being Wrong" The brilliant Peter Bernstein (author,
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Verizon Communications (VZ-NYSE) Frank G. Louthan IV, (404) 442-5867, Frank.Louthan@RaymondJames.com Alexander Sklar, CPA, Sr. Res. Assoc., (404) 442-5804, Alex.Sklar@RaymondJames.com Telecommunications
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com November 29, 2017 Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" There are just four kinds of bets.
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
SBA Communications (SBAC-NASDAQ) Ric Prentiss, (727) 567-2567, Ric.Prentiss@RaymondJames.com Alan Salinas, Sr. Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2572, Alan.Salinas@RaymondJames.com Telecommunications Services: Towers
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com September 7, 2017 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day %
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com April 2, 2018 "Down the Rabbit Hole" When I use a word, Humpty Dumpty said in a rather
More informationPortfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Portfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com Joey Madere, (901) 529-5331, Joey.Madere@RaymondJames.com
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Assurant, Inc. (AIZ-NYSE) Steven D. Schwartz, CFA, (312) 612-7686, Steven.Schwartz@RaymondJames.com Carl-Harry Doirin, Res. Assoc., (312) 612-7719, Carl.Doirin@RaymondJames.com Life and Health Insurance
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com October 2, 2015 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com November 12, 2018 "Character" The true prophet is not he who predicts the future, but
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com May 26, 2015 "Easy?!" The clichés of daily life are those of routine, discouragement,
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
DISH Network Corp. (DISH-NASDAQ) Ric Prentiss, (727) 567-2567, Ric.Prentiss@RaymondJames.com Alan Salinas, Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2572, Alan.Salinas@RaymondJames.com Telecommunications Services: Wireless
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com February 22, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com July 25, 2017 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD
More informationWeekly Economic Monitor -- Downbeat and Fed Up
PUBLISHED BY RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES Scott J Brown, PhD (727) 567-2603 scottjbrown@raymondjamescom MARCH 22, 2019 4:17 PM EDT Weekly Economic Monitor -- Downbeat and Fed Up As expected, the Federal
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com July 18, 2018 Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" Predicting the future is hard. We have
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com October 25, 2016 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com February 27, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day %
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Verizon Communications (VZ-NYSE) Frank G. Louthan IV, (404) 442-5867, Frank.Louthan@RaymondJames.com Alexander Sklar, CPA, Sr. Res. Assoc., (404) 442-5804, Alex.Sklar@RaymondJames.com Telecommunications
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com February 13, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day %
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com July 5, 2016: Revised Random Gleanings Over a Holiday Weekend After an Unusual Week
More informationTechnical Analysis Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates P. Arthur Huprich, CMT, (727) 567-2494, Art.Huprich@RaymondJames.com and The Technical Strategy Team January 4, 2013 Weekly - Uptrend Continues Despite Overhanging
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com May 24, 2017 Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" Thanks to some meetings and a two-hour, traffic
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com July 27, 2015 "Greed and Genius?!" In Parsons Pleasure, a short story
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com January 29, 2018:Revised "You've Got Mail" You ve Got Mail is a 1998 romantic comedy-drama
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com January 23, 2017 "Saving Retirement" We have often written that when everyone is asking the same question, it
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com June 11, 2018 "I'll Go Along With the Rest of the Boys!" You might think
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com April 21, 2014 "Poker Mentality?!" I learned how to play poker at a very young age.
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com August 22, 2018 Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" Depending who you ask, today is either
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Mohawk Industries (MHK-NYSE) Sam Darkatsh, (727) 567-2537, Sam.Darkatsh@RaymondJames.com Budd Bugatch, CFA, (727) 567-2527, Budd.Bugatch@RaymondJames.com Joshua Wilson, CFA, Sr. Res. Assoc., (727) 567-2647,
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com March 5, 2018 "Smoot-Hawley?" Smoot-Hawley Tariff was an act implementing protectionist
More informationA Guide to 2016 s Market Volatility. CONGRESS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 250 Northern Ave, Suite 310, Boston, MA
CONGRESS WEALTH MANAGEMENT, LLC 250 Northern Ave, Suite 310, Boston, MA 02210 www.congresswealth.com Contents What will it take to calm the markets? Will the correction in U.S. stocks turn into a bear
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com May 17, 2017 Charts of the Week : "Charts of the Week" I spend a good portion of my time responding
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com October 10, 2016 Darvas Discipline I knew that I had to adopt a cold, unemotional attitude
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com March 24, 2014 "Picture This" Picture this: you re an investor starting out in the
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com February 8, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones 24893.35-19.42-0.08%
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com December 5, 2017 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones 24290.05
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com July 1, 2013 "T-i-m-b-e-r-r-r!" Sure Babe Ruth was good, but could he play hoops?...
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com November 27, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com March 16, 2015 "Manic Depression" Manic depression is touching my soul. I know what
More informationCanada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. Allana Potash Corporation April 1, Outperform 2 C$0.80 target price
Canada Research Published by Raymond James Ltd. April 1, 2014 AAA-TSX Steve Hansen CMA, CFA 604.659.8208 steve.hansen@raymondjames.ca Daniel Chew CA (Associate) 604.659.8238 daniel.chew@raymondjames.ca
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Andrew Adams, CFA, CMT, (727) 567-4807, Andrew.Adams@RaymondJames.com August 29, 2017 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones 21808.40-5.27-0.02%
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com January 5, 2018 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD
More information[This Space Intentionally Left Blank]
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com Scott J. Brown, Ph.D., (727) 567-2603, Scott.J.Brown@RaymondJames.com
More informationA Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain
A Cautionary Signal After Today's Strong Gain November 29, 2017 by Urban Carmel of The Fat Pitch Summary: Waterfall events like the current one tend to most often reverberate into the weeks ahead. Indices
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com June 17, 2013 The Game of Risk To be sure, there is no exact definition of what calling
More information2014 First Quarter Equity Market Update
Portfolio Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates Michael Gibbs, Director of Equity Portfolio & Technical Strategy, (901) 579-4346, Michael.Gibbs@RaymondJames.com David Hydrick, (901) 579-4812,
More informationMarket Pullback A Q&A with our Investment Team
Market Pullback A Q&A with our Investment Team The Morningstar Investment Management group August 2015 Last week, stock markets fell globally in the toughest week of 2015 to date. Investors weighed concerns
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Solazyme, Inc. (SZYM:NASDAQ) Pavel Molchanov, (713) 278-5270, Pavel.Molchanov@RaymondJames.com Stacey Hudson, Res. Assoc., (713) 278-5258, Stacey.Hudson@RaymondJames.com Alternative Energy: Alternative
More informationMorning Tack Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com November 17, 2017 Investment Strategy U.S. Markets Close Net 1 Day % YTD % Dow Jones
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com July 20, 2015 Release the Condor! A long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, there
More informationMorning Tack: "Surprise"
PUBLISHED BY RAYMOND JAMES & ASSOCIATES Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist (727) 567-2644 jeffrey.saut@raymondjames.com December 7 2018 8:00 AM EST Morning Tack: "Surprise" Futures are sharply
More informationBCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO. Summary Outlook
BCA 4Q 2018 Review and 2019 Outlook Russ Allen, CIO Summary Outlook January 15, 2019 Markets in 2019 will be choppy with volatility more like this past year than the placid trading of 2017. The Fed is
More informationTaking Stock of the Market s Mood
LEADERSHIP SERIES JUNE 2017 A feature article from our U.S. partners Taking Stock of the Market s Mood International stocks continue to outperform, while U.S. equity returns may be choppy and more subdued
More informationInvestment Outlook. Investment Outlook Mid-year review and outlook. December June 2017
Investment Outlook Mid-year review and outlook June 2017 Investment Outlook 2018 December 2017 This commentary provides a high level overview of the recent economic environment and our outlook, and is
More informationSecular Bull Markets Don t Die of Old Age
Stephanie Harris, CFP, CDFA 1 Secular Bull Markets Don t Die of Old Age Investment Strategy: Secular Bull Markets March 12, 2018 By Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Stratgist at Raymond James The Tax
More informationU.S. Research Published by Raymond James & Associates
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. (VRTX-NASDAQ) Christopher Raymond, (312) 655-2672, Chris.Raymond@RaymondJames.com Laura Chico, Ph.D., Sr. Res. Assoc., (312) 655-2701, Laura.Chico@RaymondJames.com Allison Bratzel,
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com September 17, 2012 "The Philosophy of Tops" Everyone kept saying a top is not in place yet. They persistently
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com December 22, 2014 "The Bulb Lights Up!" The mechanics of covering Wall Street change
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com November 6, 2017 "Sittin' on the Dock of the Bay" I'm sittin' on the dock of the bay
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com September 2, 2014 "Homesick" Because interest rates, credit growth and prices are mutually
More informationBullion Weekly Technicals Monday, 15 October 2012
Technical Analysis Research Bullion Weekly Technicals Monday, 15 October 2012 Technical Outlook Axel Rudolph +44 207 475 5721 axel.rudolph@commerzbank.com For important disclosure information please see
More informationFigure 3.6 Swing High
Swing Highs and Lows A swing high is simply any turning point where rising price changes to falling price. I define a swing high (SH) as a price bar high, preceded by two lower highs (LH) and followed
More information2016 July Financial Market Update
Brexit Fades as Focus Returns Home 2016 July Financial Market Update Last month s summary ended with the following remarks: July 29, 2016 Don t discount the possibility of additional short-term volatility
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com June 8, 2015 "Me, Lord Marlboro, and the Dow?!" Reminding us of the current market
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com August 25, 2014 "Being Right or Making Money" Apparently, Barry Bannister has raised
More informationEUROPEAN LONG/SHORT JANUARY 2016
EUROPEAN LONG/SHORT JANUARY 2016 FOR PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ONLY There was certainly no shortage of talking points for investors in 2015. Monetary easing, low oil prices and political upheaval drove investor
More informationFive lessons from 2018
M U L T I AS S E T ASSET ALLOCATION VIEW S Five lessons from 2018 Barometer January 2019 Luca Paolini, Chief Strategist 2018 was painful for most investors, a year that forced them to learn (or re-learn)
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com April 10, 2017 : Shad Rowe I spoke with uber investor Frederick Shad
More informationRaymond James Europe ( RJ Europe ) CONFLICT OF INTEREST POLICY
Raymond James Europe ( RJ Europe ) CONFLICT OF INTEREST POLICY Introduction Article 18 of the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive ( MiFID ) and the regulations of the national competent authorities
More informationGold - key charts, price outlook
13 October, 2017 www.icbcstandard.com This is a marketing communication which has been prepared by a trader, sales person or analyst of ICBC Standard Bank Plc, or its affiliates ( ICBCS ) and is provided
More informationFreedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018
ASSET MANAGEMENT SERVICES Freedom Quarterly Market Commentary // 2Q 2018 SECOND QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS U.S. economic growth and earnings lead the world The value of the dollar rises, affecting currency exchange
More informationThe Bank of England s road to August in six charts
Economic and Financial Analysis 17 May 2018 Article 17 May 2018 The Bank of England s road to August in six charts Global Economics Will the UK economy emerge from the depths of the worst quarter of growth
More informationTime to adjust the sails
Time to adjust the sails EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 2018 Mid-Year Capital Market Outlook Brent Joyce CFA Chief Investment Strategist Andrew O Brien CFA Manager, Investment Strategy The World At Large The pessimist
More informationMarket Insight: Consolidations are Unpleasant but Healthy
May 8, 2018 Market Insight: Consolidations are Unpleasant but Healthy January seems like a long time ago when the markets were humming along in a slow steady ascent, setting a record of one of the longest
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com March 17, 2014 "A Kid's Market?" My solution to the current market, the Great Winfield
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by Raymond James & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com February 25, 2013 "A Permanent Investment" In Barnard Baruch, Park Bench
More informationOf Currencies, Trade and Other Clouds
Of Currencies, Trade and Other Clouds August 15, 2018 by Chetan Sehgal of Franklin Templeton Investments Emerging markets have struggled in the first half of this year amid a storm of uncertainties. Franklin
More informationInvestment Strategy Published by Raymond James & Associates
Published by & Associates Jeffrey D. Saut, Chief Investment Strategist, (727) 567-2644, Jeffrey.Saut@RaymondJames.com January 19, 2016 Assassins, Hunters, and Rabbits... oh my It was a few weeks ago that
More information-7.9% -11.1% -8.6% 14.1x Industrial Average Index Japan Nikkei 225
26 August 2015 It Is Another Hard Time For Investors Global stock markets have dropped sharply in the past few weeks, reflecting that investors are nervous about the possible collapse of the Chinese economy,
More information