Sustainability in a Fat Tailed Long Duration World
|
|
- Matthew Crawford
- 5 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Sustainability in a Fat Tailed Long Duration World November Neuberger Berman LLC. All rights reserved. Member FINRA/SIPC.
2 The Post Crisis Backdrop Uncertainty Promoting Heightened Volatility and Investor Concern High levels of financial leverage in the developed world present Fat Tail risks Near term deflationary risks associated with fiscal austerity Longer term risks from policy induced inflation No analogs in living memory See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 1
3 THE DEBT PROBLEM, UNCERTAINTY, AND ITS IMPLICATIONS
4 Today s Fundamental Uncertainty Begins with the Debt Problem Gross Government Debt as a Percent of GDP How will this be resolved? As of May Please see the Additional Disclosures page which is an important part of this presentation. Source IMF. 2
5 Uncertainty Has Likely Changed the Distribution of Market Returns Lower Average Returns and Higher Volatility May Be the Norm Lower Average Returns Over Time from a slower growth Economy Managing risk means recognizing structural change and evaluating businesses against an evolving backdrop Return Probability Fat Tail Risk Inflation/Deflation Active choices need to reflect changing probabilities Expected Equity Market Return Fat Tail opportunity requires non-normal analytical framework Please see the Additional Disclosures page which is an important part of this presentation. 3
6 Uncertainty Contributing to a Weak Cyclical Rebound Real GDP 22 Quarters from Previous Cyclical Peak Average of Severe Recessions: +19.0% Average of Mild Recessions: +15.3% Current: +4.6% Prior Peak Quarters As of Q See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. Source: BEA, CSFB. 4
7 Capital Market Implications Capital Exposed to Risk Longer First, In a sub-normal growth world, expected returns would be commensurately lower Pay back periods returns sufficient to cover initial capital are significantly longer Resulting in Term extension for both Projects and Investment horizons Thus, affecting both the Treasurer s and Investor s analytical perspectives See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 5
8 Capital Market Implications Term Extension also Entails an Expansion in the Factor Set Second: As Pay back periods extend, a larger number of issues affect the outcome than before More factors become relevant to the potential outcomes as the term extends outward... Resulting in a more complex analytical framework... With, potentially, a wider range of expected outcomes. See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 6
9 Capital Market Implications The Slow Growth Backdrop Also Has Fat Tails Third: Extreme outcomes are more probable in the current debt-challenged framework Fat Tails around each of the now greater number of factors Alter the probabilities of the expected outcomes Resulting in greater uncertainty of expected returns See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 7
10 Capital Market Implications No Analogs in Living Memory Fourth: The current conditions have no analogs in living memory Current conditions are unique in the history of the current US Institutional structure And may be distinctive relative to the global economic structure and linkages Resulting in modeling challenges Dealing with Unknowables See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 8
11 A Sampling of Issues Profit Motive Fundamental Motivation of Participants in a Free Market System Free Market Economics bases expectations on participants behaving rationally with a profit motive The introduction of a deus ex machina......with unlimited power Who guarantees to buy at whatever the market price is... At a defined periodic schedule... A large amount of market securities Into the indefinite future And who is NOT motivated by profit Is?? See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 9
12 The Fed Has Moved Aggressively and Pre-emptively Federal Reserve Balance Sheet $4,000 $3,500 Projected Effect of QE3 $3,000 $2,500 $ Billion $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $- Jul-07 Feb-08 Sep-08 Apr-09 Nov-09 Jun-10 Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 US Treasuries Overnight SLF TSLF CP Liquidity Facility Maiden Lane (Bear) Repos TAF Primary Credit PDCF Agencies AIG CP Funding Facility Liquidity Swaps MBS TALF Other Please see the Additional Disclosures page which is an important part of this presentation. Source: Federal Reserve, Strategas Research Partners. 10
13 Central Banks Across the Developed World Have Also Intervened Central Bank Balance Sheets as a Percentage of GDP % of GDP Q107 Q307 Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 EQ313 EQ114 EQ314 E ECB Fed BoJ SNB BoE Please see the Additional Disclosures page which is an important part of this presentation. Source: Federal Reserve, UBS. 11
14 A Sampling of Issues Lack of Conviction on Potential Outcomes Participants Facing Challenging Conditions, Unable to Formulate Opinions With Adequate Conviction to Act Lacking conviction, a move en masse to passive choices Leads to singular behavior... Undermining systemic stability See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 12
15 Macro Supersedes Fundamentals and Value in Times of Stress Cross Correlation of S&P 500 Components and ETF Volume , Day Corr: Moving Ave Dominance of Passive strategies 0.40 and Macro Hedging in times of stress and uncertainty 0.30 Jan-08 Aug-08 Mar-09 Oct-09 May-10 Dec-10 Jul-11 Feb-12 Sep-12 Apr-13 Corr S&P 500 1,450 1,250 1, S&P Day Average Total ETF $ Volume Traded ($B) $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 As of September 6th, Please refer to the attached performance information. Source: ISI, JPM ; Bloomberg; Neuberger Berman. Note: Total Market is defined as: NYSE, NASDAQ and Amex. 13
16 A Sampling of Issues Distortions in Market Signals Distortions In Market Signals Faced with distorted market signals Investor s choices are increasingly based on a single factor... Contributing to behavior not characteristic of the market segment See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 14
17 2H11 Investors Sought Dividends Over Quality S&P 500 Performance by Free Cash Flow to Enterprise Value Quintiles 10 Top Quintile Dividend Payers 5 Highest Free Cash Flow Average Total Return by Quintile % Excluding Top Dividend Payers Lowest Free Cash Flow Quintiles Avg FCF/EV = +12.7% +6.2% +2.8% -2.7% +4.7% FCF/EV Quintiles Excl Top Quintile Dividend Payers Top Quintile Dividend Payers Source: Factset; Neuberger Berman. Free Cash Flow = Trailing 12 month Net Income before extraordinary items + Depreciation and Amortization Capital Expenditures Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. 15
18 The Case for Sustainability Elongated Risk Horizons, Fat Tails, Distortions, Tenuous Analogs The Past is true and can be used to establish a margin of error into the Future investment is grounded on the past whereas speculation looks primarily to the future. both investment and speculation must meet the test of the future; they are subject to its vicissitudes and are judged by its verdict. the future is something to be guarded against rather than to be profited from. Security Analysis, Benjamin Graham and David Dodd, 1962 The Past informs the Future when adequately analyzed and applied for relevance into the Future select situations that will increase in intrinsic value in the future so that... so long as you do not... pay too much for them at the time of purchase, you will... in time make money, and lots of it. Developing an Investment Philosophy, Philip Fisher, 1980 See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 16
19 Our Strategy for Navigating this Period of Uncertainty Minimize Fat Tail Risks Preserve/Grow Long Term Purchasing Power Own businesses that share characteristics well suited to navigate today s uncertainty: Secular share gainers not wholly dependent on the economy for growth High consumable/recurring revenue streams Free Cash Flow and Balance Sheet Strength Ability to increase price or pass through price inflation when necessary Emerging Market exposure from US multinationals selling to the rising middle class Examples include: Selected Consumer Staples Personal Lines Insurance Logistics, Transportation, & Distribution Media Payment Networks Avoiding businesses most exposed to Fat Tail risk and fundamental uncertainty: Credit Sensitive Financials Commodity Materials and Deep Cyclicals Business models with high financial leverage and negative free cash flow Looking for opportunities: Health Care - find companies with strong cost/benefit value proposition Businesses positioned to benefit from an energy driven US industrial renaissance Not Counting on a Strong Economy Constructive on Equities while mindful of Fat Tail Risks This material is intended as a broad overview of the Portfolio Managers style, philosophy and process and is subject to change without notice. Portfolio Managers views may differ from those of other Portfolio Managers as well as the views of Neuberger Berman LLC. See Additional Disclosures at the end of this piece which are an important part of this presentation. 17
20 ADDITIONAL DISCLOSURES
21 Additional Disclosures This material is presented solely for informational purposes and nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold a security. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment or strategy is suitable for a particular investor. It should not be assumed that any investments in securities, companies, sectors or markets identified and described were or will be profitable. Information is obtained from sources deemed reliable, but there is no representation or warranty as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. All information is current as of the date of this material and is subject to change without notice. Any views or opinions expressed may not reflect those of the firm as a whole. Third-party economic or market estimates discussed herein may or may not be realized and no opinion or representation is being given regarding such estimates. Certain products and services may not be available in all jurisdictions or to all client types. Unless otherwise indicated, returns shown reflect reinvestment of dividends and distributions. Indexes are unmanaged and are not available for direct investment. Investing entails risks, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing in the stocks of even the largest companies involves all the risks of stock market investing, including the risk that they may lose value due to overall market or economic conditions. For use with professional investors only. This material has been prepared by Neuberger Berman Management LLC for professional investors only. It has not been filed with FINRA, and may not be reproduced, shown or quoted to, or used with, members of the public. Neither Neuberger Berman nor its employees provide tax or legal advice. All investors are strongly urged to consult their own tax or legal advisors with respect to the impact on their personal situation of any potential strategy or investment. Neuberger Berman LLC, is a registered Investment Advisor and Broker-Dealer. Member FINRA/SIPC. The Neuberger Berman name and logo are registered service marks of Neuberger Berman Group LLC Neuberger Berman LLC. All rights reserved. 18
Shadow Maturity Transformation and Systemic Risk. Sandra Krieger Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Shadow Maturity Transformation and Systemic Risk Sandra Krieger Executive Vice President and Chief Risk Officer, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 8 March 2011 Overview of discussion What is shadow bank
More informationThe Compelling Case for Value
The Compelling Case for Value July 2, 2018 SOLELY FOR THE USE OF INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS AND PROFESSIONAL ADVISORS 0 Jan-75 Jan-77 Jan-79 Jan-81 Jan-83 Jan-85 Jan-87 Jan-89 Jan-91 Jan-93 Jan-95 Jan-97
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Fourth Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More information6/11/12 Spanish bank rescue announced. 6/6/12 China cuts interest rates, fueling best day for U.S. stocks in 2012
Trade History Tactical Opportunities Portfolio LPL Financial Research MODEL WEALTH PORTFOLIOS December 31, 2012 The LPL Financial Research asset allocation process, coupled with a strong security selection
More informationU.S. EQUITIES: VALUATION & FUNDAMENTALS
LM Market Insight: U.S. EQUITIES: VALUATION & FUNDAMENTALS DEC 2015 THIS MATERIAL IS ONLY FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THOSE COUNTRIES AND TO THOSE RECIPIENTS LISTED. PLEASE REFER TO THE DISCLOSURE INFORMATION
More informationEconomic and Market Outlook
Economic and Market Outlook Third Quarter 2018 Investment Products: Not FDIC Insured No Bank Guarantee May Lose Value Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Financial term and index definitions
More informationLecture 5. Notes on the Current Crisis
Lecture 5 Notes on the Current Crisis Mark Gertler NYU June 29 .4 Real GDP growth.3.2.1.1.2.3 1975 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 18 16 core inflation federal funds rate 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 1975 198 1985 199 1995
More informationExtending the Cycle. December 8, 2015 by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman
Extending the Cycle December 8, 2015 by Erik Knutzen of Neuberger Berman We think recent market turbulence is a midcourse bump in a rather long road. At our most recent (fourth-quarter) Asset Allocation
More informationWorcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 13, Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston
Worcester Business Journal Economic Forecast Breakfast February 3, 25 Jeff Fuhrer, EVP and Senior Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston X Not this lady X Not this guy 2 26:Jan 26:Sep 27: 28:Jan
More informationGuided Equity Allocation
September 2017 Guided Equity Allocation VanEck Vectors NDR CMG Long/Flat Allocation ETF Disclosures This material does not constitute an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security, including shares
More informationMTA Educational Web Series
MTA Educational Web Series One Practitioner s Guide to Combining Macro, Fundamentals and Technical Analysis Presented by: Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Chief Market Strategist SunTrust Bank July 2014 Outline:
More informationWHY EQUITIES NOW? THINGS TO CONSIDER
October 4, 2017 WHY EQUITIES NOW? THINGS TO CONSIDER Scott Krauthamer, CFA, CAIA Managing Director Equities, AB MJ Zayac Director, Institutional Retirement Specialist, AB There is no guarantee that any
More informationClient Conversations GLOBAL INVESTMENT COMMITTEE. Why does the Fed intend to raise interest rates, and what will it mean for my investments?
Client Conversations Why does the Fed intend to raise interest rates, and what will it mean for my investments? Fed Will Likely Begin Raising Rates Soon As of November 10, 2015 We believe that the Fed
More informationCMG Tactical Rotation Strategy CMG Capital Management Group, Inc. Financial Professional Use Only
CMG Tactical Rotation Strategy About CMG CMG is a Registered Investment Advisor located in King of Prussia, Pennsylvania founded in 1992 by Stephen Blumenthal. Since the beginning, CMG has embraced Uncommon
More informationLooking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics
Looking at a Variety of Municipal Valuation Metrics Muni vs. Treasuries, Corporates YEAR MUNI - TREASURY RATIO YEAR MUNI - CORPORATE RATIO 200% 80% 175% 150% 75% 70% 65% 125% Average Ratio 0% 75% 50% 60%
More information2018 Investment and Economic Outlook
2018 Investment and Economic Outlook Presented 3/19/18 Jeffrey Neer, CFA Client Portfolio Manager 410-237-5592 jeffrey.neer@pnc.com 1 Monetary Policy: Key Factors Inflation U.S. U.S. Labor Market 2.4%
More informationMarch 6, Why Is The Fed Tapering? Michael Purves Chief Global Strategist Head of Equity Derivatives Research (203)
Michael Purves Chief Global Strategist Head of Equity Derivatives Research (203) 861-7725 mpurves@weedenco.com March 6, 2014 Why Is The Fed Tapering? As Yellen has taken the helm of the Federal Reserve,
More informationOUT OF THE WOODS? COMMENTARY STRONG FUNDAMENTALS KEY TAKEAWAYS LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET. February
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY February 20 2018 OUT OF THE WOODS? John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS Stocks
More informationComments on The Fd Federal lr Reserve s Primary Dealer Credit Facility Tobias Adrian and James McAndrews
Comments on The Fd Federal lr Reserve s Primary Dealer Credit Facility Tobias Adrian and James McAndrews SGE Session on The Fed s New Lending Facilities ASSA Meetings San Francisco John B. Taylor Stanford
More informationSunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade. Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017
SunTrust Advisory Services, Inc. Market Perspective The Pain Trade Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Director, Chief Market Strategist March 6, 2017 The Pain Trade Far more money has been lost by investors preparing
More informationToday's FOMC statement: how the language changed from prior meeting
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Federal Reserve Wednesday, December 19, 2018 Today's FOMC
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary November 18, 2014 Emerging Markets Opportunity Still Emerging Burt White Chief Investment Officer LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Market Strategist
More informationMonthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee March 2015
Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee March 2015 Our 2015 Thesis: The Great Rebalancing Act Tapering was tightening last year despite the rhetoric it was not. Dollar strength
More informationPlaying The Bull Market s Final Inning(s)
Playing The Bull Market s Final Inning(s) Douglas Ramsey, CFA, CMT Mid-September 2013 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION.
More informationDouble Dip? The Investment World: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow
Double Dip? The Investment World: Yesterday, Today & Tomorrow Don Rich Head of Tactical Asset Allocation November 10, 2010 Investment Landscape Has Changed Outsourcing is causal to business cycles, around
More informationGlobal Tactical Asset Allocation
Global Tactical Asset Allocation This material is solely for informational purposes to be viewed in conjunction with this presentation. The information presented should not be construed as representative
More informationInvestment Perspectives. From The Global Investment Committee
Investment Perspectives From The Global Investment Committee Global Risk Aversion Reached Extreme Levels Morgan Stanley Standardized Global Risk Demand Index As of October 15, 2014 Complacent Extreme Fear
More informationAlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model
AlphaSolutions Sector Rotation Model An investment model based on trending and momentum strategies Portfolio Goals Primary: Seeks long term growth of capital by investing in highranked U.S. Equity Sectors
More informationDiversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays
Diversification Pays While Low Inflation Stays May 2, 2016 by Brad Tank of Neuberger Berman Neither rising rates nor rising defaults would spell the end of opportunistic, diversified fixed income. There
More informationMoney Market Reform Update
Money Market Reform Update Don Norris Vice President, SSGA Global Cash Business September 21, 2016 For Investment Professional Use Only. Not to be distributed to the public. All the information contained
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 16, 2011 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 Europe European Bond Spreads 2 Mortgage Markets Mortgage Rates 3 Mortgage Applications Consumer Credit Revolving and Nonrevolving
More informationSea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets
Sea Change: The Ebbing of Quantitative Easing Policy and its Impact on the Capital Markets William W. Priest CEO, Co-CIO & Portfolio Manager The information contained herein reflects, as of the date hereof,
More informationMonthly Mutual Fund Report
July, Monthly Mutual Fund Report Statistics for May-June Sales and Redemptions Total assets for all funds increased in May by $9. billion, or., to $.7 trillion. Money market funds had a net cash outflow
More informationCredit Sensitive Fixed Income Market Data
Credit Sensitive Fixed Income Market Data April 2013 NORTH AMERICA KEVIN FLANAGAN Morgan Stanley Wealth Management Chief Fixed Income Strategist Managing Director kevin.flanagan@morganstanley.com +1 914
More informationCombining Commodities Alpha and Beta. Jon Stein AlphaMetrix Investment Advisors QWAFAFEW Presentation May 31, 2006
Combining Commodities Alpha and Beta Jon Stein AlphaMetrix Investment Advisors QWAFAFEW Presentation May 31, 2006 2 Important Information The information contained in this document is not meant to be exhaustive.
More informationLessons from the Sixties
LEADERSHIP SERIES DECEMBER 2018 Lessons from the Sixties Stock/bond correlations have been steadily decreasing since peaking in 2015: What does it mean? Jurrien Timmer l Director of Global Macro l @TimmerFidelity
More informationAlphaSolutions Multi-Sector Fixed Income Model
AlphaSolutions Multi-Sector Fixed Income Model A fixed income model based on trending and momentum strategies Portfolio Goals Primary: Seeks to invest in highranked sectors within the fixed income market
More informationSYSTEMATIC GLOBAL MACRO ( CTAs ):
G R A H M C A P I T A L M A N G E M N T G R A H A M C A P I T A L M A N A G E M E N T GC SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL MACRO ( CTAs ): PERFORMANCE, RISK, AND CORRELATION CHARACTERISTICS ROBERT E. MURRAY, CHIEF OPERATING
More informationSmall Caps: The Case For Active And Value
Small Caps: The Case For Active And Value SMALL CAP VALUE: ACTIVE HAS OUTPERFORMED OVER THE LONG TERM Much has been written on the relative domestic focus of small cap scks in these times of volatile trade
More informationCLICK TO EDIT MASTER TITLE STYLE Market Perspective
Market Perspective Global Earnings Remain Supportive November 8, 2017 Keith Lerner, CFA, CMT Managing Director, Chief Market Strategist 2017 SunTrust Banks, Inc. SunTrust is a federally registered service
More informationMoving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment
Moving On Up Investing in Today s Rate Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Steve Faber, Managing Director Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies September 18, 2018 PFM 1 Today
More informationAngel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC
Angel Oak Capital Advisors, LLC Angel Oak Flexible Income Fund Quarterly Review March 31, 2018 Quarter in Review Risk assets were weaker in the first quarter driven primarily by rising rates, expectations
More informationChallenges and Solutions for Today s Investment Markets
Challenges and Solutions for Today s Investment Markets Presented by: Nelson Bush Managing Director PFM Asset Management LLC 4350 North Fairfax Drive, Suite 580 Arlington, VA 22203 (703) 741-0175 bushn@pfm.com
More informationToday's FOMC statement: how the language changed from prior meeting
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Federal Reserve Wednesday, January 30, 2019 Today's FOMC
More informationRussell 2000 Index Options
Interactive Brokers Webcast Russell 2000 Index Options April 20, 2016 Presented by Russell Rhoads, Senior Instructor Disclosure Options involve risks and are not suitable for all investors. Prior to buying
More informationWhat is Monetary Policy?
What is Monetary Policy? Monetary stability means stable prices and confidence in the currency. Stable prices are defined by the Government's inflation target, which the Bank seeks to meet through the
More informationCommon stock prices 1. New York Stock Exchange indexes (Dec. 31,1965=50)2. Transportation. Utility 3. Finance
Digitized for FRASER http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 000 97 98 99 I90 9 9 9 9 9 9 97 98 99 970 97 97 ""..".'..'.."... 97 97 97 97 977 978 979 980 98 98 98 98 98 98 987 988
More informationThree-speed recovery. GDP growth. Percent Emerging and developing economies. World
Three-speed recovery GDP growth Percent 1 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 198 1985 199 1995 2 25 21 215 Source: IMF WEO; Milken Institute. Emerging and developing economies Advanced economies World Output is still below
More informationFixed Income Update: June 2017
Fixed Income Update: June 2017 James Kochan Chief Fixed-Income Strategist Overview Political turmoil may obscure but does not usually overwhelm the economic fundamentals that drive the bond markets.. Those
More informationIndices WHITE PAPER SERIES # Value 50. Capturing the performance of select Value companies across market cap segments
Indices WHITE PAPER SERIES #1 Value Capturing the performance of select Value companies across market cap segments October Introduction Benjamin Graham, in his classic book on value investing The Intelligent
More informationDividend Growth as a Defensive Equity Strategy August 24, 2012
Dividend Growth as a Defensive Equity Strategy August 24, 2012 Introduction: The Case for Defensive Equity Strategies Most institutional investment committees meet three to four times per year to review
More informationInvestment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets
Investment Opportunities in Global Fixed Income Markets GSAM Insurance Fixed Income May 217 GSAM Insurance Asset Management Key Themes for 217 Economic Backdrop End of the Distortion Monetary to Fiscal
More informationThe Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over
The Bull Market: Six Years Old And Not Over April 22-24, 2015 FOR PROFESSIONAL USE ONLY. FURTHER DISTRIBUTION OF THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS PROHIBITED WITHOUT PRIOR PERMISSION. Disclosures This
More informationToday's FOMC statement: how the language changed from prior meeting
Trend Macrolytics, LLC Donald Luskin, Chief Investment Officer Thomas Demas, Managing Director Michael Warren, Energy Strategist Data Insights: Federal Reserve Wednesday, August 1, 2018 Today's FOMC statement:
More informationStock Pickers Market Becoming Credit Pickers Market
WEEKLY GUIDANCE FROM OUR I NVESTMENT STRATEGY COMMITTEE Justin Lenarcic Global Alternative Investment Strategist Asset Group Overviews Equities... 5 Fixed Income... 6 Real Assets... 7 Alternative Investments...
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 17, 2010 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 Consumer Credit Consumer Credit: Revolving and Nonrevolving 2 ABS Yields and Issuance 3 Corporate Bonds Yield Spreads and Bond Issuance
More informationTotal
The following report provides in-depth analysis into the successes and challenges of the Northcoast Tactical Growth managed ETF strategy throughout 2017, important research into the mechanics of the strategy,
More informationGlobal Macro & Managed Futures Strategies: Flexibility & Profitability in times of turmoil.
Global Macro & Managed Futures Strategies: Flexibility & Profitability in times of turmoil. Robert Puccio Global Head of Macro, Quantitative, Fixed Income and Multi-Strategy Research For attendees at the
More informationtax alpha harvesting gains LET S START
TAX LOSS/GAIN HARVESTING Volatile markets create fertile ground to generate tax alpha the improvement in portfolio returns created by strategically harvesting depreciated assets to offset portfolio gains.
More informationTransparency in the U.S. Repo Market
Transparency in the U.S. Repo Market Antoine Martin Federal Reserve Bank of New York October 11, 2013 The views expressed in this presentation are my own and may not represent the views of the Federal
More informationA Compelling Case for Leveraged Loans
A Compelling Case for Leveraged Loans EXECUTIVE SUMMARY In the current market environment, there are a number of compelling reasons to invest in leveraged loans. In a situation where most assets are trading
More informationMonthly Investment Perspectives. The Global Investment Committee July 2015
Monthly Investment Perspectives The Global Investment Committee July 2015 The Great Rebalancing Faces Bumps Not Roadblocks As of July 15, 2015 Our primary investment thesis for 2015 remains intact. To
More informationSpheria Australian Smaller Companies Fund
29-Jun-18 $ 2.7686 $ 2.7603 $ 2.7520 28-Jun-18 $ 2.7764 $ 2.7681 $ 2.7598 27-Jun-18 $ 2.7804 $ 2.7721 $ 2.7638 26-Jun-18 $ 2.7857 $ 2.7774 $ 2.7690 25-Jun-18 $ 2.7931 $ 2.7848 $ 2.7764 22-Jun-18 $ 2.7771
More information4Q17 Global & International Equity GLOBAL EQUITY. 10+ Years of Providing High Income Through Global Dividends
4Q17 Global & International Equity GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME FUND 10+ Years of Providing High Income Through Global Dividends A: HFQAX C: HFQCX I: HFQIX N: HFQRX S: HFQSX T: HFQTX Overall Morningstar Rating
More informationTrends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds
Trends & Long-Term Outlook for Fixed and Stable Value Funds CPPC Conference August 2013 Cathe Tocher CFA, Senior Vice President AGENDA Introduction: Short-term noise pay attention Preparing for the future:
More informationThe Changed Landscape for Short-term Investing Post SEC Money Market Fund Reform
The Changed Landscape for Short-term Investing Post SEC Money Market Fund Reform April 4, 2017 1718920 CRC Exp. 02/23/2018 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY AND MAY NOT BE USED WITH THE GENERAL PUBLIC. A Challenging
More informationXML Publisher Balance Sheet Vision Operations (USA) Feb-02
Page:1 Apr-01 May-01 Jun-01 Jul-01 ASSETS Current Assets Cash and Short Term Investments 15,862,304 51,998,607 9,198,226 Accounts Receivable - Net of Allowance 2,560,786
More informationInvestment Strategy Webinar. October 17, 2012
Investment Strategy Webinar October 17, 2012 Presenters Steve Cummings, President & CEO Phone: 847.442.0064 Email: stephen.cummings@aonhewitt.com Tapan Datta, Principal Global Asset Allocation Phone: 011
More informationSWS programs. Education program in the fall. Research Teams. Investment Board. Executive Board
Introduction to SWS SWS programs Education program in the fall Seminar Series Investment Project Mentorship opportunities Research Teams Becoming an expert in an industry Giving stock pitches Investment
More informationMoving On Up Today s Economic Environment
Moving On Up Today s Economic Environment Presented by PFM Asset Management LLC Gray Lepley, Senior Analyst, Portfolio Strategies November 8, 2018 PFM 1 U.S. ECONOMY Today s Agenda MONETARY POLICY GEOPOLITICAL
More informationInsights. Year Ahead: 2019 Part I: High Anxiety?
Insights December 2018 The Leaders In Pactive Management Year Ahead: 2019 Part I: High Anxiety? Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer Richard Bernstein Advisors Richard Bernstein
More informationWeekly Market Commentary
LPL FINANCIAL RESEARCH Weekly Market Commentary April 16, 2012 A Taxing Issue for Investors Jeffrey Kleintop, CFA Chief Market Strategist LPL Financial Highlights Perhaps surprisingly, it appears that
More informationFinancial & Business Highlights For the Year Ended June 30, 2017
Financial & Business Highlights For the Year Ended June, 17 17 16 15 14 13 12 Profit and Loss Account Operating Revenue 858 590 648 415 172 174 Investment gains net 5 162 909 825 322 516 Other 262 146
More informationNew Risk Management Strategies
Moderator: Jon Najarian, Co-Founder, optionmonster.com New Risk Management Strategies Wednesday, May 4, 2011; 2:30 PM - 3:45 PM Speakers: Jim Lenz, Chief Credit and Risk Officer, Wells Fargo Advisors John
More informationMarket Perspective. Our View After the Snapback
Market Perspective Our View After the Snapback January 22, 2019 Investment and Insurance Products: Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured Are not Bank Guaranteed May Lose Value Keith Lerner,
More informationCapital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017
Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Earnings Resurgence Spring 2017 Key Observations After diverging in 2016, fundamentals once again drove performance in 1Q17 There is a resurgence in earnings
More informationU.S. Equities: Navigating a Slow Growth Environment
SITUATION ANALYSIS U.S. Equities: Navigating a Slow Growth Environment Executive summary Equities ended first quarter by posting lackluster results largely due to economic uncertainty and heightened geopolitical
More informationPIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strategy Fund: Seeking a Smoother Ride in an Uncertain World
April 2017 PIMCO TRENDS Managed Futures Strategy Fund: Seeking a Smoother Ride in an Uncertain World Trend-following, the primary approach used in managed futures strategies, has generally delivered strong
More informationGoldman Sachs Long Short Fund
Goldman Sachs Long Short Fund Contextualizing Historical Performance Goldman Sachs Asset Management January 2016 Risk Considerations The Goldman Sachs Long Short Fund invests primarily in the global equity
More informationToo Big to Fail Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses. Philip E. Strahan. Annual Review of Financial Economics Conference.
Too Big to Fail Causes, Consequences and Policy Responses Philip E. Strahan Annual Review of Financial Economics Conference October, 13 Too Big to Fail is a credibility problem Markets expect creditors
More informationKey Commodity Themes. Maxwell Gold Director of Investment Strategy. Gradient Investments Elite Advisor Forum October 5 th, 2017
Key Commodity Themes Maxwell Gold Director of Investment Strategy Gradient Investments Elite Advisor Forum October 5 th, 2017 2001 2002 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2012
More informationHigh Dividend Stocks In Rising Interest Rate Environments
High Dividend Stocks In Rising Interest Rate Environments July 2016 Disclosure: This research is provided for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide investment or tax advice. All numbers
More informationWorld Trade Powering Global Economic Growth
WEEKLY GUIDANCE ON ECONOMIC AND GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS Peter Donisanu Investment Strategy Analyst World Trade Powering Global Economic Growth August 1, 217 Key Takeaways» Evidence is mounting that global
More informationInvestment Perspectives. From the Global Investment Committee
Investment Perspectives From the Global Investment Committee Introduction Domestic equities continued to race ahead during the fourth quarter of 2014 amid spikes in volatility, dramatic declines in oil
More informationGrant Park Multi Alternative Strategies Fund. Why Invest? Profile Since Inception. Consider your alternatives. Invest smarter.
Consider your alternatives. Invest smarter. Grant Park Multi Alternative Strategies Fund GPAIX Executive Summary November 206 Why Invest? 30 years of applied experience managing funds during multiple market
More informationWisdomTree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW) and CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Index (PUT)
Q3 2017 WisdomTree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund (PUTW) and CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite (PUT) WisdomTree.com 866.909.9473 WisdomTree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund +Investment Objective: The WisdomTree
More informationU.S. Natural Gas Storage Charts
U.S. Natural Gas Storage Charts BMO Capital Markets Commodity Products Group November 26, 214 Total U.S. Natural Gas in Storage 5, Total Stocks This Week 3432 4, 3, 2, 1, Reported On: November 26, 214
More informationFactors Impacting Investment Opportunities. Market Environment. Agenda. Economic Update and Investment Tips
Agenda Economic Update and Investment Tips Presented to: Ohio Association of Public Treasurers June 16, 2016 Current economic factors Portfolio right-sizing Municipal securities Brokered CDs Step-up agency
More informationCredit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference
Credit, Housing, Commodities and the Economy Chartered Financial Analysts Institute Annual Conference May 13, 2008 Janet L. Yellen President and CEO Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Overview Financial
More informationBROAD COMMODITY INDEX
BROAD COMMODITY INDEX COMMENTARY + STRATEGY FACTS JANUARY 2018 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% -20.00% -40.00% -60.00% CUMULATIVE PERFORMANCE ( SINCE JANUARY 2007* ) -80.00% ABCERI S&P GSCI ER
More informationFinancial Highlights
November 3, 21 Financial Highlights Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 1 European Debt Bond Spreads 2 CDS Spreads 2 Securitization Markets CMBS Yields and Issuance 3 ABX and CMBX 4 Mortgage Rates 5 Broad Financial
More informationOutlook for 2014 Title 1. David Greene, Pioneer Investments
Outlook for 2014 Title 1 David Greene, Pioneer Investments 2014 A year of Transition Transitioning from fiscal tightening to less austerity. Transitioning from Euro-area recession to growth. Transitioning
More informationEffective Investment Policy and Strategies
Agenda for Today Effective Policy and Strategies For Today s Economic Environment Objectives and Goals Decisions Policy Permissible s Strategy Implementation Case Studies 2 Objectives & Goals Making Informed
More informationMarkets catch-up to the Fed. Market Insight
Markets catch-up to the Fed The shift higher and steepening in the US Treasury yield curve since the turn of the year primarily reflects the market catching up with the Federal Reserve s (Fed) guidance
More informationConvertible bonds gaining from growth as rates rise
Insight Convertible bonds gaining from growth as rates rise June 2015 In a rising rate environment, convertible bonds may offer investors a measure of duration protection and the potential for attractive
More informationU.S. Interest Rates Chartbook January 2018
U.S. Interest Rates Chartbook January 2018 Takeaways In line with expectations, the FOMC left Fed funds rate unchanged. The changes to the January statement highlighted stronger growth and confidence that
More informationGlobal Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents
Global Economic Prospects: Navigating strong currents Andrew Burns World Bank January 18, 2011 http://www.worldbank.org/globaloutlook Main messages Most developing countries have passed with flying colors
More informationTechnical Analysis: Market Insight
Technical Analysis: Market Insight October 1987 vs. October 2017 Today (Oct. 19, 2017) marks the 30 th anniversary of Black Monday a global market crash during which the S&P 500 dropped 20% in one day.
More informationCrabel Capital Management, LLC
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs) provide advice and services related to trading and investment strategies utilizing futures contracts and options on futures contracts on a wide variety of physical goods
More informationInsights. Tech s dirty little secret: it s a cyclical sector. Underestimating Tech s cyclicality. November 2017
The Leaders In Pactive Management Tech s dirty little secret: it s a cyclical sector Richard Bernstein, Chief Executive and Chief Investment Officer Richard Bernstein Advisors Richard Bernstein Advisors
More information