Growth in a Future Palestinian State

Transcription

1 Growth in a Future Palestinian State 1

2 Palestine s Endowments Few natural resources Little arable land and even less water High cost of doing business Highly educated but unskilled work force Central location next to large economies 2

3 Recent Growth is not sustainable Average annual GDP growth between 2007 and 2011 was 7.7% However has have been driven by expansionary fiscal policy funded by donor aid Growth has mostly been in government services, trade, real estate and other non-tradable sectors Between 1999 and 2010 Manufacturing Value Added fell by 12% and Agriculture by 25% 3

4 Sustainable Growth will only come through Trade and Integration Palestine must follow the lead of the East Asian countries that have achieved steady growth through exports. Its neighbors have focused on local markets and stagnated Most World trade is in intermediate products, Exporters of parts for televisions not producers of televisions get rich Exports must be high value to support the high cost structure in Palestine 4

5 Increasing Trade Requires: A stable macro environment including a fiscally sustainable government Improved trade facilitation to reduce costs Improved business environment to spur the necessary Investment A highly skilled work force that is able to achieve high levels of productivity 5

6 Improving Trade Facilitation The PA must determine its desired trade policy early. Interlocking free trade agreements with neighboring countries and major trade partners may be optimal A low and stable tariff system is critical The main purpose of the border management system is to facilitate trade and not to ensure security Improving customs is critical to increase growth both today and in a future state 6

7 Palestine cannot continue to depend upon labor intensive low value added products Most exports are resource intensive or labor intensive Palestinian wages are relatively high compared to neighboring countries Productivity is too low to support the high wages in low value added goods Israel no longer protects labor intensive manufacturing such as garments and leather 7

8 Ratio of Value Added to Labor Costs India 2006 Turkey 2008 Philippines 2009 Viet Nam 2009 West Bank 2009 Gaza 2009 Manufacturing Garments Furniture 8.4 NA

9 Palestinian Firms Must Invest to Increase Productivity Unless there is a massive real wage decline, WB&G will not be able to compete on labor intensive manufactures There is limited scope to grow the export of stone and marble The Palestinian private sector must invest to raise productivity and develop new industries 9

10 Services are Promising Both India and China have been growing at about 7% per year. But most growth in China has been from manufacturing while growth in India has come from productivity growth in services There has been increasing growth in services that are products in themselves such as banking, insurance and ICT Services are increasingly like industrial goods. They can be unbundled and producers can specialize in individual tasks Countries that export low value added services will remain poor, just like exporting low value added goods 10

11 High Private Sector Investment Requires the right Enabling Environment Until recently there have been few signs of increased investment beyond housing Israeli restrictions remain the biggest impediment to investing. They create high uncertainty and risk Financial markets are liquid and generally well functioning Labor markets are flexible and workforce well educated. However, employers cannot find experienced workers 11

12 Increasing Investment in the Private Sector Requires the right Enabling Environment Legal infrastructure remains incomplete: No companies, competition, movable assets law etc. Telecommunications, electricity, water and other infrastructure must be upgraded. Government must be able to manage these systems Corruption is not perceived as a significant impediment to doing business Land registration is still a major impediment to investment 12

13 Palestine s Most Important Resource: Its People High Value production, especially of services, requires highly skilled workers Palestinians are well educated but not highly skilled The Education system must provide graduates with the skills required by the private sector The Education system must teach high level cognitive skills and develop behavioral norms 13

14 Priorities Implement a sustainable PA budget Develop border management and customs authorities/determine trade regime Improve Business Environment especially land registration Focus on developing links between education system and private sector 14