Towards a Coordinationist Paradigm of Macroeconomics
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1 University of Hamburg, Department of Philosophy, Theory of Freedom Research Project Hamburg, 4 October 2017 Conference: Perspectives of Integrated Austrian Theory Towards a Coordinationist Paradigm of Macroeconomics Stefan Kooths Forecasting Center 1
2 The Kiel Institute for the World Economy 2
3 Applied/empirical economic research Pattern prediction Quantitative forecasting» Business cycle projections» Early warning systems Consulting (policy advice, entrepreneurial support) 3
4 Reconstruction of economics Coordinationist paradigm of (macro-) economics inspired by Austrian Economics (Entrepreneurial Economics) methodological backbone Praxeology: Science of Human Action Catallactics: Science of human inter-action via (market) exchange 4
5 Outline Market process-oriented microfoundations» What microfoundations?» Why market process-oriented? Contribution to methodological diversity Capital, interest, and money» Production: Capital-based and consumption-driven» Interest: Pure Time Preference and Loanable Funds» Money: The ultra-pervasive good Role of time in macroeconomics (intertemporal links) Applications and research» Linking financial/monetary sphere and real economy» Production possibilities, path-dependencies, and crises» Global perspective and top-down-approach Towards a coordinationist paradigm of macroeconomics 5
6 Outline Market process-oriented microfoundations» What microfoundations?» Why market process-oriented? Contribution to methodological diversity Capital, money, and interest» Production: Capital-based and consumption-driven» Interest: Pure Time Preference and Loanable Funds» Money: The ultra-pervasive good Role of time in macroeconomics (intertemporal links) Applications and research» Linking financial/monetary sphere and real economy» Production possibilities, path-dependencies, and crises» Global perspective and top-down-approach Towards a coordinationist paradigm of macroeconomics 6
7 Microfoundations for macroeconomics One economic process» Micro level: Economic mechanisms and individual decisions» Macro level Mismatches on micro level show up as imbalances Universal drivers (permeating into all micro markets) Macroeconomics: Evidence for systematic misallocation of resources? Universal (= pervasive) drivers» Money (medium of exchange)» Interest (price of time)» Capital (means for intertemporal coordination)» Labor (most universal production factor)» Constitutional framework (regulations, policy) Systemic micro disruptions as macro symptoms 7
8 Market process view (1/2) Disequilibrium approach» Menger/Hayek vs. Walras/Marshall tradition» homo agens (HA) vs. homo oeconomicus (HO) Role of entrepreneurs» Uncertainty: speculation, search, and discovery (HA as explorer)» Universal arbitrageurs: investment as intertemporal arbitrage Dynamics and time» Permanent adjustment process rather than sequence of equilibria» Market system as feedback mechanism (ex-ante and ex-post prices)» Separation of trend (potential output) and cyclical components? 8
9 Time, knowledge, and equilibria Time cannot pass without modifying knowledge. (Hoppe) The fact that time cannot pass without modifying knowledge appears to destroy the possibility of treating expectations as data of a dynamic equilibrium system. (Lachmann) 9
10 Market process view (2/2) Value theory» Subjectivist perspective» Reverse value imputation (from ends to means) Prices as knowledge surrogates» Deficiency of monetary calculation: Distorted price structures vs. price level movements» Non-neutrality of money (Cantillon effects matter) Leaving the evenly rotating economy behind 10
11 Speculation Means, ends, arbitrage, speculation, and entrepreneurship Speculation Means Expected effect End Selection Means Valuation End Subjective judgment Factor markets: Prices of resource services Arbitrage (Future) product markets: Prices of consumer goods Imperfect communication between two markets (price of bundle of inputs price of consumption good) 11
12 Outline Market process-oriented microfoundations» What microfoundations?» Why market process-oriented? Contribution to methodological diversity Capital, money, and interest» Production: Capital-based and consumption-driven» Interest: Pure Time Preference and Loanable Funds» Money: The ultra-pervasive good Role of time in macroeconomics (intertemporal links) Applications and research» Linking financial/monetary sphere and real economy» Production possibilities, path-dependencies, and crises» Global perspective and top-down-approach Towards a coordinationist paradigm of macroeconomics 12
13 Final aggregate demand : No demand and not all of it is final Source/Input (not: supply) Goods and services account for period t Use/Output (not: demand) Intermediate consumption (production structure) Intermediate consumption (production structure) Domestic value-added Final consumption (exclusive source of value) Domestic capital formation Imports Capital formation abroad Exports Final use of domestic production (only with respect to period t) 13
14 Primary production factors (labor and natural resources) Consumable output (first-order goods) Production as a time consuming, multi-stage process Late stages (lower-order goods) Early stages (higher-order goods) t-6 Q7 t-5 Q6 t-4 Q5 t-3 Q4 t-2 Q3 t-1 Q2 t QC Production Value imputation Capital stock as a structure Capital formation: intertemporal intermediate consumption 14
15 Capital Capital as intentionally produced productive means» not a disembodied abstraction or homogenous aggregate» nor a self-perpetuating ( Knightian ) fund Structure of heterogeneous goods» Limited convertibility and recombination losses» Capital as a structural pattern (Lachmann) Value dimension:» Ability to allow individuals to more readily realize their plans rather than physical characteristics or physical history» Unfinished entrepreneurial plans (Kirzner): Capital goods to be assessed in light of their usefulness to those plans Missing link between micro and macro level (Skousen) 15
16 Value of the Spanish capital stock? Bn. Euro Net fixed capital formation (rhs) Net capital stock (2005 prices) Bn. Euro No level shift Source: AMECO Database. 16
17 Spain: Invisible ghost estates Bn. Euro Percentage points 4 Positive contributions to potential growth output gap nowcast/forecast: -0.9 to -1.3 % Output gap Potential output Gross domestic product at 2005 market prices Source: European Commision, AMECO and CIRCA databases
18 Primary production factors (labor and natural resources) Consumable output (first-order goods) Production: The Hayekian triangle Late stages (lower-order goods) Early stages (higher-order goods) t-6 Q7 t-5 Q6 t-4 Q5 t-3 Q4 t-2 Q3 t-1 Q2 t QC Production Number of production stages/shape of the Hayekian triangle? 18
19 Interest Interest as a value phenomenon» Expression of time preference» Price of future goods relative to present goods» Discount rate interwoven in the entire price system Capitalization theory (Fetter): Interest vs. price of capital» Productivity of capital reflects in price of capital goods» Valuation of reproducible capital pushed backward to primary factors» Price of capital = present value of future income streams Interest and roundaboutness of production» Capital-intensity increases productivity of labor» Choice of more roundabout production schemes depends on time preference Pure time preference = market rate of interest? 19
20 Interest rate and market for loanable funds i LFS=S i* LFD=I LF 20
21 Coordinating saving and investment Saving» Saving up for something: Future demand, not a leakage» Derived-demand and discount effect derived-demand effect dominates M*V = P*(QC + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q5 + Q6 + Q7) discount effect dominates Investment: Stage pattern matters (not volume alone) Entrepreneurial challenge: bringing capital structure in line with pure time preference (intertemporal arbitrage) 21
22 Capital-based macroeconomic framework (Garrison) Stages of production C Production possibilities frontier i S I Loanable funds I LF 22
23 Interest rate and monetary policy i LFS=S LFS=S+M i* i M LFD=I LFD=I+L LF 23
24 Monetary policy Multi-purpose weapon of modern economic policy Generic target: Provision of a means of exchange Other targets» Government financing» Debt-monetization» Boosting employment What about Tinbergen?» Business-cycle stabilization» Systemic financial stability» Monetary policy» Today: Key price of capitalist system manipulated by central banks» Back to simple money supply rules? 24
25 Outline Market process-oriented microfoundations» What microfoundations?» Why market process-oriented? Contribution to methodological diversity Capital, money, and interest» Production: Capital-based and consumption-driven» Interest: Pure Time Preference and Loanable Funds» Money: The ultra-pervasive good Role of time in macroeconomics (intertemporal links) Applications and research» Linking financial/monetary sphere and real economy» Production possibilities, path-dependencies, and crises» Global perspective and top-down-approach Towards a coordinationist paradigm of macroeconomics 25
26 Macroeconomics and terminology Risks of macroeconomic misperceptions» Aggregating/averaging the problems away (e.g. aggregate production function approach)» Losing touch with microeconomic principles (e.g. key role of price mechanism)» Over-interpreting national accounts concepts (e.g. identities tell nothing about causality or interdependency)» Ignoring production structures (netting out intermediate consumption) Language (terminology) and reasoning (theory)» Words can be misleading» Wording matters 26
27 Applications (1/2) Potential production/output gap estimations» Disaggregated approaches (marketable production possibilities)» Market revaluations compared to national accounting data» Marketability in the absence of interventionism Capital stock distortions as flipside of financial crisis» Repairing intertemporal discoordination problems» New light on austerity debate» Industry structure according to remoteness from final consumption (input-output-analysis as a matching problem) Non-neutrality of money/monetary policy» Monetary theory of the business cycle (systematic investment failures due to excessive credit creation)» Capital gives money time to cause trouble (Garrison)» Scenario of globalizing monetary policy (multilateral swap agreements)» Money: What money? 27
28 Applications (2/2) International macroeconomic imbalances» Current account vs. financial account (capital vs. trade flows) Global macroeconomic imbalances: The savings glut debate» Negative natural interest rates ahead?» Need for more public debt to fill the global investment gap?» Approximation of natural rate of interest? Global business cycle and regional/national impact» Top/down view: Economic activity within countries derived from global dynamics» National specialization and impact of capital restructuring 28
29 A coordinationist macroeconomic paradigm Key research and policy question: Evidence for hampered market coordination processes?» Coordination efficiency vs. macroeconomic management» Important role of intertemporal coordination (capital and interest)» Path-dependency of economic activity via capital allocation Beyond the demand-side vs. supply-side controversy» Coordinationist macroeconomics is not a cheerleader for growth» Intermediary step to linking macroeconomics and well-being Overcoming the production-biased view (production serves consumption, not vice versa) Putting consumers/households back in the center Value theory remains key pillar (whether preferences are exogenous or endogenous) 29
30 30
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