choose the life you want to live income funds Simon Pearse
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- Marybeth Tate
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1 income funds Simon Pearse
2 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Property NCD s, 12% Cash, 12% Term deposits, 35% Income Yield about 6% Inflation linked Bonds, 20% Preference Shares, 8% Floating Corporate Debt, 13% Income Growth
3 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Cash, 12% Municipal Bonds, 12% Income Yield about 7% State owned Bonds, 20% Corporate Bonds, 8% Property RSA Bonds, 35% Eskom Bonds 13% Income Growth
4 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Cash, 12% Other listed property, 12% Income Yield about 7% Growthpoint, 2 0% Redifine, 8% Property SA Corporate, 35 % Hyprop, 13% Income Growth
5 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Property Capital stable Will benefit from rising interest rates Capital preservation until property and bonds are yielding more income yields are low relative to inflation expectations capital risk Income Growth
6 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market capital stable Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Property will benefit from rising interest rates capital preservation until property and bonds are yielding more income yields are low relative to inflation expectations capital risk Income Growth
7 capital risk in bonds and property 17 Bond and Property Yields Bonds (BAYC10) Property (J253)
8 capital risk in bonds and property Bond Yields 8.8 9% capital loss % capital gain 5% capital loss /10 01/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11
9 capital risk in bonds and property Property Yields % capital loss % capital gain % capital loss /10 01/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11
10 the economics inflation will steadily increase (average at least 7% over the longer term) rand consumer
11 inflation: experience 8% Headline CPI 7% 6% 5% 4% 3.7% 41% 4.1% 42% 4.2% 4.6% 5.0% 5.3% 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% 02/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11
12 inflation: experience Inflation drivers 21% 18% 15% 14.3% 14.0% 15.9% 18.7% 17.1% 12% 10.7% 9% 6% 3% 3.5% 35% 5.1% 4.8% 6.3% 7.3% 7.5% 0% -3% -0.6% -0.6% -0.4% -0.5% -0.9% 09% -0.4% 28/02/11 31/03/11 30/04/11 31/05/11 30/06/11 31/07/11 Food (14.3%) Fuel and other vehicle costs (4.8%) Purchase of vehicles (11.3%)
13 the economics inflation will steadily increase (average at least 7% over the longer term) rand currency appreciation below R7/ $ unlikely consumer
14 the economics Gross Domestic Expenditure Breakdown 7.8 Imports, 31.2% Locally Produced, 68.8% /11 05/11 06/11 07/11 08/11 09/11
15 currency: experience 90,000,000,000 Equity & Bond Flows 80,000,000,000 70,000,000, ,000,000,000 50,000,000,000 40,000,000,000 R60bn 30,000,000,000 20,000,000,000 10,000,000, ,000,000,000 R44bn R18bn -R7bn Mar - Aug 2011 Mar - Aug 2010 Equities Flows Bond Flows
16 the economics inflation will steadily increase (average at least 7% over the longer term) rand currency appreciation below R7/ $ unlikely consumer over-indebted and under saved
17 consumer :experience Consumer Confidence Index
18 consumer :experience 11% Retail Sector Year-on-year change in monthly sales 10.05% 9% 7% 6.32% 5% 5.46% 5.27% 3% 2.22% 1% 0.17% -1% 01/11 02/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11
19 consumer :experience 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% Manufacturing sector Year-on-year change in monthly sales 6.5% 54% 5.4% 2.7% 0.8% 1.0% 0.1% 01/11 02/11 03/11 04/11 05/11 06/11 07/11-4% -6% -8% -6.0%
20 consumer :experience 100% 80% 77% The million dollar question! How does the Reserve Bank 60% combat inflation without raising interest rates? 40% 20% 0% -0.20% -20% -40% -20% Debt to Disposable Income Savings to Disposable Income Real medium house prices ( to date)
21 constructing an investment portfolio ~ investment options ~ Equities ~ Unit Trusts Local ~ Insurance policies ~ Bonds & ~ Syndications ~ Real estate Foreign ~ Bank accounts ~ Bank deposits ~ Share portfolios
22 constructing an investment portfolio first consideration is your immediate income need second consideration is to plan for future income
23 immediate income need your investment portfolio should provide this income, ideally without eroding capital eroding capital erodes future income this is achieved by selecting investments t that produce the desired income yield
24 Capital : Annual Income requirement : R Annual Income Yield : 6% ~ bonds and cash produce a high h income yield and no income growth ~ equities produce a low income yield, with greater than inflation income growth over the longer-term ~ real estate produces a relatively high income yield with near to inflation hedged income growth
25 Capital : Annual Income requirement : R Annual Income Yield : 6% Income Yield Bonds 8.0% Equity 30% 3.0% 0% Income Growth 10% Portfolio Creation 60% bonds 40% equity Portfolio Income Yield: 6% R Portfolio Income Growth: 4% Reliable Income
26 reliable income Income Stream Bonds
27 reliable income Equity Anglos Altech Altech Anglos Pick n Pay Goldfields Goldfields Pick n Pay
28 reliable income Altech Equity Anglos Goldfields Pick n Pay
29 Bonds Equity portfolio that will meet your income needs now and reliably into the future
30 2nd consideration is to plan for future income here the portfolio choice is driven by a need to accumulate capital and grow the capital value this is achieved by a combination of income reinvestment and income growth
31 income reinvestment will accumulate capital R 400,000 R 350,000 RSA Government Bond R157 R R 300,000 R 250,000 Value R 200,000 R R 150,000 R 100,000 R R 50,000 R Capital Base Capital Accumulation from Reinvesting Income
32 2nd consideration is to plan for future income here the portfolio choice is driven by a need to accumulate capital and grow the capital value this is achieved by a combination of income reinvestment and income growth
33 income growth will drive capital value growth ~ the value of a company grows over time at the rate at which its profit grows. ~ in the same way, the value of an investment grows over time at the rate at which its income grows.
34 income growth will drive capital value growth Pick and Pay nds Divide Year Average Annual Growth Dividends: 18.3% Price: 16.1 % Price Dividend Price
35 income growth will drive capital value growth Tiger Brands ds Dividen Year Average Annual Growth Dividends: 16.9% Price: 17.3 % Price Dividend Price
36 capital accumulation vs capital value growth ~ the mix of investments t should be influenced by income tax considerations and tolerance for risk ~ where income is tax free, the portfolio should be biased toward higher yielding investments lower risk option ~ where income is taxable, the portfolio should be biased toward higher income growth investments higher risk option
37 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 R1m in 2001 Yield = 11% R500,000 R5,000,000 R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,
38 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,
39 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 R1m in 2001 Yield = 3.6% R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 36k
40 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 Income Growth = 14% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 36k
41 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 Income Growth = 14% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 3.5m R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 36k
42 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 Income Reinvest Growth R500,000 = Income 14% pa R 4.7m R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m Risk relates to income growth expectation R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R126k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100, R 36k
43 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Reinvest Income R500,000 R5,000,000 Income Growth = 7% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m Risk relates to income growth expectation R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 36k
44 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Pay Reinvest 30%Tax On Income R500,000 R5,000,000 Income Growth = 7% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 Tax will reduce Capital accumulation R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced Risk relates to income growth expectation R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 2.5m R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 36k
45 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Pay 30%Tax On Income Income Growth R500,000 R5,000,000 = 7% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 Tax will reduce Ann nual Income Produced R3,000,000 R300,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 Capital accumulation growth expectation R 2.5m Risk relates to income Ann nual Income Produced R2,000,000 R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R 150k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 77k R 23k
46 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Retirement Pay 30%Tax savings On Bias Income Personal Income Growth savings R500,000 R5,000,000 = Bias 8% pa R500,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 Tax will reduce Capital accumulation R3,000,000 R300,000 R 1.9m R2,000,000 R200,000 Ann nual Income Produced Risk relates to income growth expectation R 2.5m R3,000,000 R300,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 150k R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100,000 R k R 77k R 23k
47 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R5,000,000 Retirement savings Bias R500,000 R5,000,000 Personal savings R500,000 Bias R 4.7m R4,000,000 R400,000 R4,000,000 R400,000 Balance your portfolio holistically R3,000,000 R300,000 R 281k R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m Ann nual Income Produced What can we expect for the next decader126k R2,000,000 R 110k R200,000 R2,000,000 R200,000 R1,000,000 R100, R1,000,000 R100, R 23k
48 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 8% R1m yield today today Yield vs = 8% 11% yield 2001 R 500,000 R 400,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 R5.4m R 500,000 R 400,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 281k R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 2.6m Ann nual Income Produced R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R 2.0m R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R 110k 1,000,000 R 160 k R 100, R 1,000,000 R138k R 100, R 80 k R R 80 k R R 23k R R
49 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 8% R1m yield today today Yield vs = 8% 11% yield 2001 R 500,000 R 400,000 R5,000,000 R4,000,000 R500,000 R 4.7m R400,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R 2.0m R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R 160 k R126k 1,000,000 R 100, R1,000,000 R100, R 80 k R 36k R R
50 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R6,000,000 R600,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 8% R1m yield today today Yield vs = 8% 11% yield 2001 R 500,000 R 400,000 R5,000,000 R4,000,000 R1m today Yield = 3% R500,000 R 4.7m R400,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R 2.0m R2,000,000 R200,000 R 110k R 160 k R126k 1,000,000 R 100, R1,000,000 R100, R 80 k R 36k R R
51 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R R6,000,000 R600,000 R 600,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 8% R1m yield today today Yield vs = 8% 11% yield 2001 R 500,000 R 400,000 R R5,000,000 R R4,000,000 Income Growth 10% R500,000 R 500,000 R 4.7m R400,000 R 400,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m R3,000,000 R300,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 3.0m R 2,000,000 R 110k R 200,000 R 2.0m R 160 k R2,000,000 R200,000 R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R126k 1,000,000 R 100, R1,000,000 R 1,000,000 R100, R 100,000 R 90 k R 80 k R R R 30 36kk R R 71 k R
52 capital accumulation income funds Bond Investment R 6,000,000 R 600,000 R 5,000,000 R 4,000,000 8% R1m yield today today Yield vs = 8% 11% yield 2001 R 500,000 R 400,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 R 281k Ann nual Income Produced R 2.6m capital value growth equity funds Equity Investment R R6,000,000 R600,000 R 600,000 R R5,000,000 R R4,000,000 10% income growth Income today Growth vs 10% 14% income growth 2001 R500,000 R 500,000 R 4.7m R400,000 R 400,000 R3,000,000 R300,000 R 3,000,000 R 300,000 Ann nual Income Produced R 3.0m R 2,000,000 R 110k R 200,000 R 2.0m R 160 k R2,000,000 R200,000 R 2,000,000 R 200,000 R126k 1,000,000 R 100, R1,000,000 R 1,000,000 R100, R 100,000 R 90 k R 80 k R R R 30 23k k R R
53 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield retirement savings bias Retirement Annuity Income Funds Preservation Fund Living Annuity personal savings bias balance your portfolio holistically Income Growth
54 various types of income funds Income Funds Balanced Equity Funds Income Yield Money Market capital stable Income Var Specialist Income Funds Bond Property will benefit from rising interest rates capital preservation until property and bonds are yielding more income yields are low relative to inflation expectations capital risk Income Growth
55 thank you any yquestions?
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