International equity markets

Transcription

1 International equity markets fell for the second consecutive quarter in U.S. dollar Quarter Ending Year-to-Date PERFORMANCE terms. The list of culprits leading 6/30/18 6/30/18 to the decline in equity prices ranged from tariffs to foreign exchange fluctuations, and investors appear to give little chance of any short-term resolutions to Institutional Composite (gross) (net) MSCI Emerging Markets (5) -9.99% % -7.83% % % -6.66% Source: Renaissance Research, Bloomberg, MSCI this growing list of headaches. Our benchmark MSCI Emerging Market Index fell 7.8%, compared to the developed market MSCI EAFE s drop of 1.1%. In times of uncertainty, investors have traditionally favored the safe haven of U.S. currency. The U.S. dollar faces its own headwinds with a growing fiscal deficit in light of the large tax cuts implemented last year, but investors tend to be more short-term oriented and are focusing on protecting current assets. The U.S. Dollar index gained 5.0% for the quarter, reversing weakness during the first three months of the year. All major currencies fell relative to the dollar, in particular emerging market currencies such as the Turkish lira (-13.5%) and the Brazilian real (-13.6%). GEOGRAPHICAL EXPOSURE & PORTFOLIO CHANGES (1)(3) Region Ending Weight (2) Asia/Pacific 69.9% Change from 3/31/ % Additions & ( Deletions) (4) China Construction Bank, Huami, Momo, Sogou, Weichai Power, Wynn Macau, Yum China (Bangkok Bank, Geely Automobile Holdings, LG Display, KB Financial Group, NetEase, Vipshop) Central & South America 16.3% -1.2% Credicorp Eastern Europe 8.9% -4.5% (Ford Otomotiv Sanayi, MMC Norilsk Nickel) North America 3.5% +0.2% Middle East & Africa 1.5% -0.3% Western Europe 0.0% 0.0% Source: Renaissance Research, FactSet (1) Based on a representative account of the strategy discussed and shown as supplemental information to the GIPS compliant presentation. Portfolio characteristics (e.g., sector weights, valuation, growth rate) are based on a representative account that we believe is illustrative of the strategy. Characteristics and/or holdings may not be the same for all accounts invested in the strategy due to factors such as pending trades or account restrictions. Additions/Deletions reflect security transactions completed by the date stated on this presentation, and the securities mentioned may not be held by all accounts invested in the strategy. (2) Weights as of the end of the presentation period, which only include the equity portion of the portfolio. Cumulative total weighting may not add up to 100% due to weights being rounded to the nearest decimal place. (3) Renaissance determines an issuer s country classification based on company filings and data provided by third-party sources such as Bloomberg or FactSet. Renaissance considers an issuer to be located in an emerging market country if the issuer is domiciled or incorporated in an emerging market country (as defined by the MSCI Emerging Market Index) or exhibits risk characteristics (e.g., economic, geopolitical and regulatory risks) similar to emerging market countries. (4) Any securities referenced should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security. These securities may represent a portion or all of the companies held in a representative account in this strategy as of the date stated and are intended for informational purposes only. Nonperformance based criteria have been used to select the securities listed. The past performance of these securities is no guarantee of future results. The specific securities identified and described may not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for this strategy. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified or discussed were or will prove to be profitable. Portfolio holdings may not be current recommendations to buy or sell any security, and may no longer be held in the representative account. To request a complete list of portfolio holdings recommendations for the past year, the calculation methodology, or a list showing the contribution of every holding to the representative account s performance for the time period stated, please contact Renaissance at compliance@reninv.com. (5) Primary benchmark. All references to Renaissance composite performance in this presentation are net of fees unless otherwise stated. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Performance for periods of less than a year is not annualized. All returns are shown in U.S. dollars. Please refer to the full composite presentation and GIPS disclosure on the last page for additional information including the calculation of net of fees performance. For 1Q18, Renaissance returns are for the period ending 3/29/18 and benchmark returns are for the period ending 3/30/18, due to the observance of a holiday.

2 CONTRIBUTORS TO RETURN (1)(3) Company Name Average Weight (2) Contribution to Return Comments TOP FIVE CONTRIBUTORS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY CNOOC 2.67% 0.40% The Chinese oil and gas producer saw shares rise as two of its new projects began producing ahead of schedule and oil prices hit their highest level since Ecopetrol 3.10% 0.24% Rising oil prices helped the Colombian oil company generate its highest first quarter net income since China Petroleum & Chemical Source: Renaissance Research, FactSet 2.72% 0.18% The integrated Chinese oil and gas company s exploration and production division, which has been generating losses over the past three years, is expected to turn an operating profit in the second quarter. Baidu 2.14% 0.13% Investments in artificial intelligence are paying off for the Chinese tech company, as they are able to better personalize content shown on their news feed app, leading to increased user time and more advertising revenues. China Telecom 1.76% 0.12% A positive earnings report that included cellular service revenues increasing by 11% year-over-year (y/y) helped shares of the Chinese telecommunications operator. BOTTOM FIVE CONTRIBUTORS EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY Banco Santander (Brasil) 1.86% -0.79% Although the Brazilian bank reported that its return on equity had reached 19% in 1Q18, the upcoming presidential elections and the truck drivers strike caused investors to turn negative towards Brazil. Nexa Resources 1.83% -0.63% Zinc prices fell from multi-year highs during the second quarter and higher-than-expected costs caused the zinc miner to report weaker-thanexpected first quarter earnings-per-share. Air China 2.25% -0.54% The Chinese airline faces dual macro headwinds: rising oil prices and a depreciating Chinese yuan, which makes its U.S. dollar denominated debt harder to service. Cosan Limited 1.87% -0.51% While falling sugar prices were a drag on profitability, growth in the fuel distribution business helped revenues rise 17% y/y in the first quarter. Imperial Holdings 1.65% -0.48% After reaching multi-year highs earlier in the year, elevated valuations have caused shares to sell off. However, the unbundling of the company s logistics and vehicles businesses could serve to unlock value. The increasing likelihood of a global trade war over tariffs played a major role in the market s mood during the quarter. Trade tensions remained elevated with the Trump administration exchanging barbs with Chinese officials over issues within the technology, steel and agriculture industries. In addition to a heightened rhetoric with China, President Trump has now drawn a line in the sand with Germany over its automobile industry and Canada and Mexico regarding the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). While we continue to remain optimistic that a global trade war can be averted, the antagonistic approach towards our allies gives us pause. Europe is most exposed to tariffs with 27% of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) export related, while Chinese exports account for less than 20% of their GDP. Until a formal resolution on trade issues is reached, we expect to see continued volatility in capital markets. (1) Based on a representative account of the strategy discussed and shown as supplemental information to the GIPS compliant presentation. Portfolio characteristics (e.g., sector weights, valuation, growth rate) are based on a representative account that we believe is illustrative of the strategy. Characteristics and/ or holdings may not be the same for all accounts invested in the strategy due to factors such as pending trades or account restrictions. (2) Average weights over the presentation period, which only include the equity portion of the portfolio. (3) The securities listed should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security. These securities represent the top five and bottom five contributors by weight to the performance of a representative account in this strategy as of the date stated and are intended for informational purposes only. The past performance of these securities is no guarantee of future results. The specific securities identified and described may not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for this strategy. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified or discussed were or will prove to be profitable. Portfolio holdings may not be current recommendations to buy or sell a security and may no longer be held in the representative account. To request a complete list of portfolio holdings recommendations for the past year, the calculation methodology, or a list showing the contribution of every holding to the representative account s performance for the time period stated, please contact Renaissance at compliance@reninv.com.

3 National elections took center stage in a number of countries including Turkey and Mexico. President Erdogan won elections in June and further strengthened his grip on the Turkish economy. In response to his comments regarding the need for lower interest rates, the Turkish lira has declined rapidly against most major currencies this year as investors worry about the independence of the central bank. This has caused further pain to a fragile economy as Turkey historically borrows funds on a short-term basis. Mexico elected Andres Manuel López Obrador as its new president. The leftist president favors raising the labor standards for Mexican workers, an act that may help in the current NAFTA negotiations with the U.S. and Canada. In Europe, German Chancellor Angela Merkel is working to keep her fragile coalition together as debate rages over European Union immigration policies. In Italy, the Five Star Movement and the League agreed to form a coalition, marking the first fully populist government in Europe. With this new government, investors grew concerned the political players would push for Italy to exit the European Union, causing Italian securities to drop. Crude oil prices rose further during the quarter, ending above $74 per barrel (West Texas Intermediate). The rise in oil prices has been a result of strong demand from a global economic recovery, combined with supply constraints imposed by OPEC. In June, OPEC agreed to increase production by 1 million barrels per day, but this additional supply may only serve to offset declining production in countries such as Venezuela, Iran and Angola, resulting in oil prices staying firm. While the global economy is still relatively strong, recent economic data shows that growth may be peaking. After two years of steady increases, the Purchasing Managers Indices have started to plateau. In particular, manufacturing indices have been trending lower since the beginning of the year. While this is just one set of economic statistics, it may indicate that the tariff turmoil and rising geopolitical risks are dampening growth prospects and leading to a so-called risk-off environment. As this relates to equity markets, investors tend to favor growth stocks over value stocks in periods where economic strength is waning. Whether looking at U.S, foreign, large cap or small cap markets, growth indices have performed better than value indices year-to-date. Along with global economic growth, investors focus on company level earnings to gauge prospects for future performance. The recent tax cuts in the U.S. have boosted the bottom line for many U.S.- based companies. However, foreign firms are also witnessing an increase in earnings following the bottoming of profits in mid Based on estimates provided by Bloomberg, earnings per share for the companies in the MSCI ACWI ex US are expected to rise from $18.90 in 2017 to $21.38 in In addition to positive earnings growth, valuation plays an important part in the analysis of equity markets. Foreign markets performed well in 2017 compared to U.S. equity markets, but valuation still favors non-u.s. markets. While many other factors such as foreign exchange and geopolitical risk play into the attractiveness of any asset, the better valuations of foreign markets, in particular emerging markets, provide a good starting point for analysis. Portfolio returns for the quarter were disappointing as tariff concerns and weakening emerging market currencies dragged down returns. Our country allocation effect accounted for the majority of the relative underperformance with strategy overweights to Brazil and Turkey detracting the most from returns. On the positive side, our largest single country exposure, China, was helped by returns from our energy holdings. From a sector perspective, returns across our portfolio were led higher by our Energy positions, while Financials detracted the most from returns. Looking at the latter half of 2018, many of the same forces that have buffeted markets look set to continue. The Trump trade war is having a negative effect on many parts of world, and the uncertainty about the willingness of the U.S. to modify or even do away with longstanding commitments to NAFTA and even the World Trade Organization (WTO) will lead to further uneasiness. Retaliatory trade measures by Europe, Canada and China could put further pressure on asset prices, but a resolution to the crisis would provide a firm footing for the equity markets as fundamentals and valuations remain attractive. With the exception of the U.S. Federal Reserve, most banks remain in an accommodative stance, providing their economies with ready liquidity to maintain economic growth.

4 DISCLOSURES The opinions stated in this presentation are those of the authors as of the date listed on this presentation and are subject to change at any time due to changes in market or economic conditions. STOCK REFERENCES If securities are referenced, they should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell a particular security. These securities may represent a portion or all of the companies held in a representative account in this strategy as of the date stated and are intended for informational purposes only. Non-performance based criteria have been used to select the securities listed. The past performance of these securities is no guarantee of future results. The specific securities identified and described may not represent all of the securities purchased, sold or recommended for this strategy. The reader should not assume that investments in the securities identified or discussed were or will prove to be profitable. Portfolio holdings may not be current recommendations to buy or sell any security, and may no longer be held in the representative account. To request a complete list of portfolio holdings recommendations for the past year, the calculation methodology or a list showing the contribution of every holding to the representative account s performance for the time period stated, please contact Renaissance at compliance@reninv.com. PERFORMANCE If Renaissance or benchmark performance is shown, it represents historically achieved results, and is no guarantee of future performance. All performance is shown in U.S. dollars unless otherwise stated. Future investments may be made under materially different economic conditions, in different securities and using different investment strategies and these differences may have a significant effect on the results portrayed. Each of these material market or economic conditions may or may not be repeated. Therefore, there may be sharp differences between the benchmark or Renaissance performance shown and the actual performance results achieved by any particular client. Benchmark results are shown for comparison purposes only. The benchmark presented represents unmanaged portfolios whose characteristics differ from the composite portfolios; however, they tend to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. The benchmark cannot be invested in directly. The returns of the benchmark do not include any transaction costs, management fees or other costs. The holdings of the client portfolios in our composites may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the benchmark shown. The benchmark has been selected to represent what Renaissance believes is an appropriate benchmark with which to compare the composite performance. The value of an investment may fall as well as rise. Please note that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client s investment portfolio. Investor principal is not guaranteed and investors may not receive the full amount of their investment at the time of sale if asset values have fallen. No assurance can be given that an investor will not lose invested capital. Consultants supplied with these performance results are advised to use this data in accordance with SEC guidelines. The actual performance achieved by a client portfolio may be affected by a variety of factors, including the initial balance of the account, the timing and amount of any additions to or withdrawals from the portfolio, changes made to the account to reflect the specific investment needs or preferences of the client, durations and timing of participation as a RIM client, and a client portfolio s risk tolerance, investment objectives, and investment time horizon. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the loss of principal and are not guaranteed by the U.S. government. MSCI DATA The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an as is basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the MSCI Parties ) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. REFERENCED INDICES MSCI Emerging Markets The MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the emerging markets. The index consists of approximately 850 securities from 24 countries. MSCI EAFE The MSCI EAFE Index is designed to measure international equity performance for U.S. investors. It comprises the MSCI country indexes capturing large and mid-cap equities across developed markets in Europe, Australasia and the Far East, excluding U.S. and Canada. The index consists of approximately 925 securities from 21 countries. U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is a measure of the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. The Index goes up with the U.S. dollar gains strength (value) when compared to other currencies. Renaissance Investment Management Fax:

5 GIPS Compliant Presentation Institutional Composite MSCI-Emerging Net Composite Benchmark Annual Market Market Markets 3 Year Annualized 3 Year Annualized Asset Weighted Number of Value of Value of Institutional Composite Institutional Composite Benchmark Standard Standard Composite Portfolios Composite Firm's Assets Year Gross-of-Fee Return Net-of-Fee Return Return Deviation Deviation Dispersion in Composite (Millions) (Millions) ** % % % NMF* 1 $0.1 $4, % 76.69% 78.51% NMF* 1 $0.1 $4, % 8.78% 18.88% NMF* 2 $0.2 $3, % % % 24.52% 25.76% NMF* 2 $0.2 $2, % 14.83% 18.22% 20.07% 21.50% NMF* 1 $0.2 $2, % 10.87% -2.60% 18.07% 19.04% NMF* 1 $0.3 $2, % -2.25% -2.19% 14.19% 15.00% NMF* 1 $0.3 $2, % % % 14.36% 14.06% NMF* 1 $0.2 $2, % 7.91% 11.19% 14.62% 16.07% NMF* 1 $0.2 $1, % 32.93% 37.28% 13.98% 15.35% NMF* 1 $0.6 $2,202.4 FINAL 12/31/2017 * Not meaningful figure due to five or fewer accounts invested for the entire year. **Firm Assets do not include UMA program assets for GIPS purposes. As of 12/31/2017, Renaissance managed an additional $3,281.7 million in UMA programs, totaling $5,484.1 in assets under management. As of Year End or Current Quarter Renaissance Investment Management (RIM) claims compliance with the Global Investment Performance Standards (GIPS ) and has prepared and presented this report in compliance with the GIPS standards. Renaissance has been independently verified for the periods January 1, 2006 through December 31, Verification assesses whether (1) the firm has complied with all the composite construction requirements of the GIPS standards on a firm-wide basis and (2) the firm s policies and procedures are designed to calculate and present performance in compliance with the GIPS standards. The Institutional Composite has been examined for the periods January 1, 2008 through December 31, The verification and performance examination reports are available upon request. Firm Definition: The Renaissance Group LLC, which does business as Renaissance Investment Management (RIM), is a registered investment advisor established in 1978, with an office in Covington, KY. RIM is an affiliate of Affiliated Managers Group based in West Palm Beach, FL. RIM manages equity, tactical, balanced and fixed income assets for a variety of clients including high net worth, institutional and sub-advisory relationships. A complete list and description of the Firm s composites is available upon request. Composite Composition: The Institutional Composite portfolios consist of approximately equities exhibiting a combination of strong earnings growth, reasonable valuation, rising earnings expectations and profitability. The initial universe begins with all emerging markets domiciled American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and U.S. listed shares of foreign corporations. The Emerging Markets Equity Institutional Composite was created as of January 1, 2008 and includes all fee paying, fully discretionary, non-tax managed, non-wrap accounts. RIM does not have non-fee paying portfolios. RIM will add new fully discretionary portfolios to the composite at the first full month under management. RIM will exclude terminated portfolios from the composite after the last full month they were under management. Composite dispersion is measured using an asset-weighted standard deviation of returns of the portfolios. Calculation of Performance Returns: Performance is calculated using total returns. Monthly composite performance is asset-weighted using beginning-of-period values. Rates of return are time-weighted with geometric linking of monthly returns. Valuations and returns are computed and stated in U.S. dollars. Account performance is based on total assets in the account, including cash and cash equivalents. Performance is actual performance. RIM has chosen to present performance both gross- and net-of-fees. The gross-of-fee performance returns are presented before deduction of management and custodial fees but after the deduction of all trading expenses. Net performance is reported after the deduction of all trading costs and actual RIM management fees. These gross- and netof-fee investment results for the Renaissance Institutional Composite include reinvestment of dividends and other earnings. Clients returns will be reduced by the advisory fee and any other expenses that may be incurred in the management of the client s investment advisory account. For example, if the gross annualized return of an account over a five-year period were 5.0%, deducting one twelfth of an annual advisory fee of 90 basis points each month on the ending monthly account balance would produce a cumulative net return of 22.7%. The cumulative gross return at 5.0% per annum over a five-year period would be 28.3%. A $1 million starting portfolio would thus have an ending net market value of $1,227,096, $56,262 less than the gross return ending value of $1,283,359. There is no minimum asset size for inclusion in the composite. RIM uses trade date accounting and income is accrued. Actual performance may differ from composite returns, depending on the size of the account, brokerage commissions, investment guidelines and/or restrictions, inception date and other factors. After-tax results will vary from the returns presented herein for those accounts that are subject to taxation. Policies for valuing portfolios, calculating performance and preparing compliant presentations are available upon request. Standard Deviation: The three-year annualized standard deviation measures the variability of the composite and the benchmark returns over the preceding 36-month period. According to the GIPS Standards, this is not required for periods prior to Investment Management Fees: RIM s fees are based on account size. The standard RIM fee schedule for the Strategy for direct-managed accounts is as follows: All amounts 1.00%. Investment advisory fees are described in Part 2A of RIM s Form ADV. Benchmark: RIM compares its composite returns to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index (net of foreign withholding taxes) is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance in the emerging markets. The index consists of approximately 800 securities from 23 countries. This index is shown for comparison purposes only. We are not trying to explicitly manage to this benchmark. This index represents unmanaged portfolios whose characteristics differ from the composite portfolios; however, it tends to represent the investment environment existing during the time periods shown. This index cannot be invested in directly. The returns of this index do not include any transaction costs, management fees or other costs. The holdings of the client portfolios in our composites may differ significantly from the securities that comprise the index shown. The index has been selected to represent what RIM believes to be an appropriate benchmark with which to compare the composite performance. Other: Performance data quoted in any Renaissance presentation represents historically achieved results, and is no guarantee of future performance. Future investments may be made under materially different economic conditions, in different securities and using different investment strategies and these differences may have a significant effect on the results portrayed. Each of these material market or economic conditions may or may not be repeated. Therefore, there may be sharp differences between the performance shown and the actual performance results achieved by any particular client. The value of an investment may fall as well as rise. Please note that different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk and there can be no assurance that any specific investment will either be suitable or profitable for a client or prospective client s investment portfolio. Investor principal is not guaranteed and investors may not receive the full amount of their investment at the time of sale if asset values have fallen. No assurance can be given that an investor will not lose invested capital. Consultants supplied with these performance results are advised to use this data in accordance with SEC guidelines. The actual performance achieved by a client portfolio may be affected by a variety of factors, including the initial balance of the account, the timing and amount of any additions to or withdrawals from the portfolio, changes made to the account to reflect the specific investment needs or preferences of the client, duration and timing of participation as a RIM client, and a client portfolio s risk tolerance, investment objectives, and investment time horizon. All investments carry a certain degree of risk, including the loss of principal and are not guaranteed by the U.S. government. Risks of Strategy: Institutional Composite returns may show a high level of variability. In addition to market risk, the majority of any additional risk in these portfolios is related to specific stock selection, and RIM will have significant exposure to individual securities. Sources: The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an as is basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the MSCI Parties ) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, noninfringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. Renaissance Investment Management