TransAlta Corporation. Investor Presentation April 2017

Transcription

1 TransAlta Corporation Investor Presentation April

2 Forward Looking Statements This presentation may include forward-looking statements or information (collectively referred to herein as forward-looking statements ) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation. All forward-looking statements are based on our beliefs as well as assumptions based on information available at the time the assumptions were made and on management s experience and perception of historical trends, current conditions, and expected future developments, as well as other factors deemed appropriate in the circumstances. Forward-looking statements are not facts, but only predictions and generally can be identified by the use of statements that include phrases such as may, will, believe, expect, anticipate, intend, plan, project, forecast, foresee, potential, enable, continue, or other comparable terminology. These statements are not guarantees of our future performance and are subject to risks, uncertainties, and other important factors that could cause our actual performance to be materially different from that projected. In particular, this presentation contains forward-looking statements pertaining to our business strategy and goals, including our strategy and position to grow gas-fired and renewable generation; the anticipated benefits of shifting to a capacity market structure; the repositioning of our capital structure by pursuing project-level debt; anticipated future financial performance, including as it pertains to comparable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization ( EBITDA ), comparable funds from operations ( FFO ), and comparable free cash flow; the timing and the completion and commissioning of projects under development, including the South Hedland power project and its associated costs and benefits; the coal-to-gas conversions, including costs of any such conversions and the anticipated reduction in emissions; development of a pump-storage project at Brazeau, including the anticipated benefits, total investment costs, location of developments, the increase to capacity and the timing of construction; access to low cost growth capital; ability to realize growth opportunities, including brownfield solar and battery sites in Alberta in regard to future growth opportunities and targeted gas and renewable acquisitions in Australia, the United States and Canada; ability to further hedge at prices higher than the current market in Alberta; estimated regulatory environment, including anticipated cost/tonne for carbon emissions; ability to monetize the off-coal transition payment; the generation supply mix in Alberta by 2030; attributes of coal-to-gas conversions, including the anticipated capital costs, investment life, reduction in emissions and operating costs; expectations related to future earnings and cash flow from operating and contracting activities; expectations in respect of financial ratios and targets, including dividend payout ratio; the Corporation s plans and strategies relating to repositioning its capital structure and strengthening its balance sheet, including the allocation of debt between the Corporation and TransAlta Renewables Inc. as well as the debt reductions that are expected to occur; the potential drop-down candidates from TransAlta Corporation to TransAlta Renewables Inc.; and the Corporation s ownership level of TransAlta Renewables Inc. Factors that may adversely impact our forward-looking statements include risks relating to: fluctuations in market prices and the availability of fuel supplies required to generate electricity; our ability to contract our generation for prices that will provide expected returns; the regulatory and political environments in the jurisdictions in which we operate; adverse regulatory developments, including unanticipated impacts on existing generation and coal-to-gas conversions; environmental requirements and changes in, or liabilities under, these requirements; changes in general economic conditions including interest rates; operational risks involving our facilities, including unplanned outages at such facilities; disruptions in the transmission and distribution of electricity; the effects of weather; disruptions in the source of fuels, water, or wind required to operate our facilities; natural or man-made disasters; the threat of domestic terrorism and cyberattacks; equipment failure and our ability to carry out, or have completed, repairs in a cost-effective manner or timely manner; commodity risk management; industry risk and competition; fluctuations in the value of foreign currencies and foreign political risks; the need for additional financing; structural subordination of securities; counterparty credit risk; insurance coverage; our provision for income taxes; legal, regulatory, and contractual proceedings involving the Corporation; outcomes of investigations and disputes; reliance on key personnel; labour relations matters; risks associated with development projects and acquisitions, including delays in the construction of or increased costs associated with the South Hedland power project; and any market disruption, including any actions taken by the Balancing Pool as the buyer under the power purchase arrangements. The foregoing risk factors, among others, are described in further detail in the Risk Management section of our Management Discussion and Analysis and under the heading Risk Factors in our Annual Information Form. Readers are urged to consider these factors carefully in evaluating the forward-looking statements and are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements included in this document are made only as of the date hereof and we do not undertake to publicly update these forward-looking statements to reflect new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable laws. In light of these risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, the forward-looking events might occur to a different extent or at a different time than we have described, or might not occur. We cannot assure that projected results or events will be achieved. Certain financial information contained in this presentation, including comparable FFO and comparable FCF, may not be standard measures defined under International Financial Reporting Standards ( IFRS ) and may not be comparable to similar measures presented by other entities. These measures should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures prepared in accordance with IFRS. For further information on non-ifrs financial measures we use, see the section entitled Non-IFRS Measures contained in our Management Discussion and Analysis, filed with Canadian securities regulators on Unless otherwise specified, all dollar amounts are expressed in Canadian dollars. 2

3 TransAlta s Investment Merits Geographic: Over 8,600 MW s of net generation capacity in Canada (75%), U.S. (18%) and Australia (7%) Fuel: Over 70 facilities including wind, hydro, gas, co-generation, coal Supporting Stable EBITDA: 70% - 85% contracted generation over next four years Reliable: Average contract duration of approximately six years Liquidity: $1.7 billion at December 31, 2016 Annual Cash Payments: From Alberta government for coal compensation total more than $500 million Renewables skill sets: Alberta s largest generator with technical, financial, project management, and operating expertise. Access to low cost growth capital: Via TransAlta Renewables and internally generated cash. 3

4 Seizing Investment Opportunities in Targeted Markets Region Opportunity (MW s) Alberta 5,000 Australia 5,000 Strategic Considerations ~3,000MW s of coal-to-gas conversions; extending life of existing depreciated assets MW s pump storage at Brazeau; grow site capacity to between 955 1,255MW s Brownfield wind farms shovel ready for upcoming renewables bid Brownfield solar and battery sites ready for future opportunities Wind/solar focus with sites in active development Offtake agreements Targeted gas and renewables acquisitions Saskatchewan 1,500 Wind and Solar sites being developed Eastern Canada 1,000 U.S. 500 Ontario RFPs greenfield solar/ small hydro uprates Targeted gas and renewables acquisitions Renewables expansion at existing facilities Targeted gas and renewables acquisition 4

5 TransAlta s Global Generation Portfolio

6 TransAlta s Generation Asset Overview TransAlta is Canada s largest generator of wind power and the largest generator of renewable energy in Alberta Coal: 4,931MW (~73% in Canada) Wind/Solar: 1,384MW (~84% in Canada) Gas: 1,323MW (~68% in Canada) Hydro: 926MW (~100% in Canada) 6

7 $ millions Gas & Renewables Cash Flow Leading the Way Gas-fired and renewable assets were approximately 70% of total Cash Flow From Generation (1) in 2016 and approximately 11% higher than in $3.3 billion of assets positioned in markets where public policy is promoting clean power; Canada, Australia and the US $900 Cash Flow From Generation $800 $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 10% increase 11% increase $ Renewables & Gas Coal Total Generation (1) Cash Flow From Generation = Comparable EBITDA (adjusted for the Keephills 1 force majeure provisions) less sustaining capital. (1) (1) 7

8 Contracted Generation Portfolio Supports Stable EBITDA MW 6,000 5,000 4,000 Total portfolio contractedness (1) 85% 73% 70% 69% Merchant exposure in Alberta and the Pacific NW 2017 Hedge prices AB ~$45 - $50/MWh PacNW ~$45 - $50/MWh 2018 Hedge prices AB ~$45 - $50/MWh PacNW ~$45 - $50/MWh 3,000 2,000 1, PPAs Short-term contract / Hedges Long-term contract Open Merchant Alberta Highly hedged through 2017 Market volatility allow opportunity to further hedge at prices higher than the current market Pacific Northwest Puget Sound Energy and other long-term contracts provide base of between ~280MW and 380MW Additional shorter-term hedges managed dynamically to capture market volatility Stable cashflows underpinned by contract and hedging strategy (1) As of Dec. 31,

9 Key Growth Drivers in Australian Power Markets Aging coal fleet in Eastern Australia provides opportunity for alternate fuel sources to replace these assets Plant Fortescue River Gas Pipeline Net MW s Counterpart - n/a South Hedland (1) 150 Horizon Power, Fortescue Metals Group Solomon 125 Fortescue Metals Group Parkeston 55 Newmont Power Pty Southern Cross 245 BHP Billiton Nickel West 2015 Federal Renewable Energy Target (RET) legislation creates a driver for new transmission connected to solar and wind projects. Recent transmission stability issues in Southern Australia triggering a review of the need for distributed peak power. (1) South Hedland is expected to be commissioned mid

10 South Hedland Power Station 150 MW Combined Cycle Gas Power Station in Western Australia $585 million project (1) has been funded without increasing TA debt Expected to generate ~$80 million of EBITDA on an annualized basis Commissioning expected on budget in mid-2017 (1) Total estimated project spend is AUD$570 million. Total estimated project spend is stated in CAD$ and includes estimated capital interest costs and may change due to fluctuation in foreign exchange rates. 10

11 Seizing Opportunities in Alberta and Canada s Transition to an Off-Coal and Carbon Tax Regime

12 Transitioning Off Carbon.. Removing an Uneconomic Input Threading the needle on carbon exposure means transitioning out of carbon sooner rather than later to avoid being subjected to an increasing cost environment. Dawn Farrell, CEO TransAlta Corporation Pricing carbon is the new reality, it will become the largest sole input cost to power generation driven by policies of the Federal and Provincial governments. Rules at the federal and provincial levels are under discussion and costs/tonne are currently estimated to be: Federal: $50/Tonne by 2022 Alberta: $30/Tonne starting in

13 TransAlta s Off-Coal Transition Agenda in Alberta 1 2 Required to eliminate coal emissions by Will receive annual off-coal transition payments from Alberta government starting in TransAlta s Response to the Changing Environment Working with stakeholders to create new capacity market Converting coal-fired plants to gas-fired Development of Brazeau pump storage solution Bidding in the AESO REP auctions 13

14 Implementing the Climate Leadership Plan Off-Coal Transition Payments Agreement 14 annual cash payments of $37.4 million totaling $542 million Payments expected to occur in third quarter each year until Opportunity to monetize contracted cash flow stream (~$400 $420 million) Compensation will be recognized as net other operating income/ (loss) Depreciation expense increases by approximately $60 million due to reductions in useful lives for the Alberta coal assets 14

15 Implementing the Climate Leadership Plan Memorandum of Understanding Tangible Cooperation and Collaboration with the Alberta Government in terms of: Creating a new Capacity Market Executing coal-to-gas conversions to extend useful lives of coal facilities Supporting Renewable Electricity Fair treatment of existing renewable generation including the value of renewable energy credits on existing generation 15

16 Alberta s Climate Leadership Plan Changing the Supply Mix CLP Requires Retirement of 6,200MW of baseload coal-fired generation by 2030 = ~40% of current installed capacity Installation of 5,000MW of intermittent renewable electricity by 2030 = ~2,000MW of reliable generation Issues: Energy-Only Markets System reliability risk; renewables require backup support (lower reserve margins) Depressed price distorts signal for new firm generation investment Solution: Capacity Market System reliability is maintained Provides appropriate price signals to support new firm generation investment 16

17 Energy Only vs. Capacity Markets Energy-Only Market Capacity Market Energy/AS Capacity Energy/AS All costs and return of capital must be recovered from energy prices in the power market Energy market revenues recover marginal costs Capacity market revenues recover fixed operating & capital costs and provide for return 17

18 Capacity Market A Stable Investment Environment TransAlta advocates for, and supports, a Capacity Market TransAlta is well positioned to compete in a capacity market with highly depreciated coal units that will be converted to gasfired generation Allows existing and new dispatchable generation to compete for capacity Provides price and cash flow certainty, resulting in access to lower cost of capital Government has committed that non-dispatchable existing renewables will not be economically harmed 18

19 Capacity Market Transition Timeline Biggest market change in two decades. Timelines are aggressive; need to align with the first coal retirements. Schedule risk has been identified by the AESO Design Implementation First Procurement Legend: Schedule risk First Delivery 19

20 Alberta s Capacity Market Transition - Unknowns Key Market Design Considerations What is the best capacity contract term (e.g. 1 year, up to 7 years)? Resource eligibility should demand participation and renewables be allowed? Will subsidization of renewables distort price formation? Requirement to participate will it be must offer? How will capacity costs be charged to consumers? How will consumers hedge? 20

21 TransAlta s Coal Fleet Leveraging Critical Mass ~3,000MW of coal-fired installed capacity eligible for coal-to-gas conversion; representing ~50% of total coal capacity in Alberta Majority of TransAlta s coal units are highly depreciated providing for low-cost capacity in Capacity Market Federal regulations provide opportunity for conversions; proposed standard of 550 t/gwh is under review Plant MW (Net) Annual GWh 1 Commissioned Retirement Under Exiting Rules 2 Retirement Under Federal Gas Regulation Sundance , Sundance , Sundance , Sundance , Keephills 1 & , Sheerness 1 (3) Sheerness 2 (3) Genesee , Keephills , Based on 85% availability 2 Sundance & Keephills 1 and 2 retirement dates are based on existing Federal coal legislation; remaining coal units are based on CLP date of Sheerness 1 and 2 capacity based on 25% ownership interest 21

22 Coal-to-Gas Conversion Attributes vs. Coal Generation Competitive Capital Costs Lower Operating Cost Conversion & Life Extension Flexibility Reduced Emissions Technology & Innovation Utilizes existing capital, sites and transmission $125 - $150/KW cost for burner conversion 40-50% lower operating & sustaining capital 65% lower carbon costs ~60 days required to convert coal burners to gas Potential to add 15 years to Alberta coal fleet Similar ramping and lower minimum stable requirements 40% reduction in CO2 & up to 70% reduction in NOx 100% reduction in Mercury and SOx Supports market implementation and development of renewable generation Critical path items include: Securing fuel supply and regulatory approval for gas pipeline 22

23 Coal-to-Gas Conversion A Comparative Analysis Coal-to-Gas Conversion Reciprocating Engine New CCGT Facility Cost (per KW) $125 to $150 $1,300 to $1,400 $1,500 - $1,700 Carbon Tax Higher Lower Lower Capacity Baseload/Mid-merit Peaking Baseload Ramping Slower Faster Faster Time to Build 60 days 2.5 to 3.5 years 4 to 5 years Unit Size ~400 MW 10 to 20 MW 400 to 800 MW Investment Commitment 15 years 30 years 30 years Coal-to-Gas conversions provide: higher returns, at lower cost, over a shorter project life with less regulatory risk. 23

24 Examples of Executed Coal-to-Gas Conversions The conversion of coal units to gas-fired generation has been taking place in the United States for a number of years. Plant Owner Conversion Details Harding Street Station Clinch River Big Sandy Indianapolis Power & Light American Electric Power American Electric Power 2015/16 650MW (Units 5/6/7) Commissioned: MW (Units 1/2) Commissioned: MW (1 Unit) Commissioned: 1963 Shawville NRG 2015/16 626MW (4 Units) Commissioned: Big Cajun NRG MW (1 Unit) Commissioned:

25 Brazeau Investment Supports System Reliability to 900 MW pumped storage expansion Increases Brazeau s capacity to 955-1,255 MW. Low cost alternative to greenfield build out Investment of ~$1.8 billion to ~$2.5 billion Targeting 2021 commencement of construction, subject to long-term contract Current Capacity of Brazeau is 355MW Brazeau Large battery storage to support adoption of renewables 25

26 Brazeau Hydro Looking Forward 1 2 New Turbines New Dam 1 2 Brownfield Expansion Reliability Flexibility Sustainability Utilizes existing site and infrastructure Provides system support as wind build-out occurs Fast ramping Perpetual assets existing hydro fleet is 100 yrs. old 26

27 Brazeau Hydro Our Action Plan Secure Contract Environmental Studies Engineering Regulatory Applications Procurement Construction Stakeholder Engagement COD Securing long-term contract with AESO is a key stage gate 27

28 Leveraging TransAlta s Operating Advantage in Alberta 1 History of developing and operating renewables facilities has lead to: Strong understanding of wind resources and hydrology Long-standing land owner and stakeholder relationships aid future development plans Trusted developer and supporter of community enhancement projects (TransAlta Tri Leisure Centre) 2 300MW s of development ready wind sites in Alberta Advanced stages of development available for near-term AESO REP Near existing transmission and infrastructure 28

29 Financial Strategy

30 $M Sufficient FCF to Fund Growth and Strengthen B/S $280 to $315 million of Comparable FCF (1) between 2013 and 2016 Comparable FCF Growth Range Growth (2) Debt (2) Outlook Target Expect capacity market to deliver similar FCF as current PPA (1) Comparable Free Cash Flow includes dividend payments on preferred shares but not dividend payments on common shares. (2) Allocation between debt and growth shown for illustrative purposes only. 30

31 Upcoming Debt Maturities $1,200 Upcoming Debt Maturities ($ millions) $1,000 $800 $296 $600 1 $167 $400 $200 $400 2 $520 $400 $400 $700 $ USD CAD $360M of non-recourse debt raised in 2016 will be used to settle 2017 maturities (1) Debt related to RNW. (2) Includes USD$20 million of debt related to RNW. 31

32 Finance & Treasury Overview Area of Focus Liquidity Execution Average liquidity of $1.3B since 2014; liquidity of ~$1.7B at December 31, 2016 including cash of $305 million Area of Focus Execution Financial Ratios Ratios expected to improve once South Hedland is operational Ratio Target Comparable FFO before Interest to Adjusted Interest x Adjusted FFO to Adjusted Net Debt % Adjusted Net Debt to Comparable EBITDA (1) Reduction in Available Liquidity due to reduction in US bilateral credit facility from $300 million to $200 million. 32

33 Outlook and Priorities

34 Executing on our 2016 Priorities Secured a mutually beneficial coal transition arrangement with the Alberta Government Continued to reposition our capital structure Continued to grow TransAlta Renewables Inc. Continued to focus on delivering strong operational, safety and financial performance 34

35 $250 $299 $300 87% 89% 89% $990 $1,065 $1,100 $755 $763 $835 Executing on 2016 Financial Goals Comparable EBITDA Comparable FFO $1,200 $1,000 $1,000 $800 $800 $600 $600 $400 $400 $200 $200 $- (1) Low 2016 High $- Low 2016 High $400 Comparable FCF 90% CAD Coal Availability $300 $200 85% $100 $- Low 2016 High 80% Low 2016 High (1) Includes $80 million provision adjustment related to the Keephills 1 force majeure. 35

36 2017 Priorities Positioning for Competition 1 Work collaboratively with the Government of Alberta Advance our investment in Brazeau by securing long-term contract Contribute to the design of a new capacity market Establish terms and conditions to convert coal plants to gas 2 Commission South Hedland 3 Grow renewables through RFP s in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Australia 4 Execute our financing strategy to further strengthen the balance sheet 5 Continue to lead in safety and environment performance while delivering against our 2017 financial targets 36

37 2017 Outlook 2017 Outlook Ranges ($M) Comparable EBITDA $1,025 $1,135 Comparable Funds from Operations $765 $855 Sustaining Capital (260) (280) Pfd Share/Other Distributions (205) (210) Comparable Free Cash Flow $300 $365 Comparable Free Cash Flow Per Share $1.04 $1.27 Annual Dividend $0.16 $0.16 Dividend Payout Ratio 15% 13% Range of Key Assumptions Power Prices Alberta Spot ($/MWH) $ 24 - $ 30 Alberta Contracted ($/Mwh) $ 45 - $ 50 Mid-C Spot (US$/MwH) $ 23 - $ 28 Mid-C Contracted (US$/MWh) $ 45 - $ 50 Other Canadian Coal Availability 86% - 88% Hydro / Wind Resource Long term average 37

38 Executing Our Strategic Objectives Operational Excellence Increase Financial Flexibility Reduced OM&A costs by $20 million year over year through improved mine planning and mine methodologies, reduced equipment requirements and optimized contractor usage. Entered into an off-coal agreement with the Government of Alberta for ~$524 million over the next 14 years. Raised ~$360 million of project debt and increased liquidity to ~$1.7 billion at year end. Met 2016 guidance for comparable EBITDA (1), FFO and FCF; at the high end of FCF outlook range. Continued focus on delivering strong operational, safety and financial performance. Reposition our capital structure by pursuing $700 to $900 million of project-level debt over the next 18 months. Repayment of maturing debt in 2017 with existing liquidity. Target FCF of $400 million by 2018 to Strategic Growth (1) Excluding adjustment to provisions relating mostly to prior years. Plan to participate in the 2017 Alberta RFP for renewables. Conversion of coal plants to gas. Announced Brazeau pump storage hydro project development. Longer-term, prepare to capitalize on opportunities in renewable generation. Continue to seek a long-term contract for our Brazeau project with the Government of Alberta. 38

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40 Leveraging TransAlta Renewables Inc. TransAlta Public TransAlta is the largest shareholder of TransAlta Renewables Inc. and will maintain ~60-80% ownership ~60-80% ~20-40% Unlocks the value of long-life contracted assets on attractive terms Provides access to lower cost funding TransAlta Renewables Strong currency to support accretive acquisition of third party assets TransAlta Corporation and TransAlta Renewables are strategically aligned 40

41 TransAlta Renewables (TSX:RNW) Provides stable, consistent returns through the ownership of highly contracted power generation and other infrastructure assets Enterprise Value¹ Market Cap. 2 $4.8 Billion $3.7 Billion 2017 Comparable EBITDA (guidance) $425 - $450 million 2017 Comparable CAFD (guidance) $235 - $260 million Dividend Yield 6.0% Net Generating Capacity (incl. South Hedland) TransAlta Corporation s Ownership 64% 2,441 MW Wind Hydro Gas Fired Gas Pipeline ¹ Does not include capital required to complete South Hedland Project 2 Based on closing price as of March 1, 2017 and including Class B shares 41

42 Significant Drop-Down Inventory Potential Drop-Down Candidates from TransAlta Corporation Gas Fired Generation ~400 MW in Alberta & Ontario including: 244 MW Poplar Creek facility in AB ~150 MW from 4 facilities through TA Cogen ~$140M EBITDA Alberta Hydro ~800 MW from 13 units in Alberta, representing 90% of Alberta s hydro ~$60 - $120M EBITDA Other Renewables 20 MW wind facility in ON 50 MW wind facility in Minnesota 21 MW solar facilities in Massachusetts 42

43 Appendix

44 Financial Performance by Business Segment Business Segment Comparable EBITDA ($M) (1) 2016 (1) Canadian Coal $273 $373 $311 $389 $393 $393 U.S. Coal $211 $148 $67 $65 $67 $41 Gas $275 $312 $332 $312 $330 $372 Wind and Solar $163 $151 $181 $179 $176 $195 Hydro $105 $127 $148 $87 $73 $82 Energy Marketing $101 ($13) $58 $75 $37 $52 Corporate ($84) ($83) ($74) ($71) ($72) ($70) Comp. EBITDA ($M) $1,044 $1,016 $1,023 $1,036 $1,004 $1,065 Comp. FFO ($M) $812 $788 $729 $762 $740 $763 (1) Canadian Coal is normalized for provision adjustments including $80 million and $59 million in 2016 and 2015, respectively. 44

45 Australian Revenue (CAD$ millions) Net Capacity (MW) Australia 20 Years of Investment Experience $200 $180 $160 $140 $120 Original Investment Parkeston (55 MW net to TransAlta). January 1999 TransAlta acquired a 85% interest in Southern Cross; cash consideration of $187 million. December 2002 Added remaining 15% ownership in Southern Cross January 2006 Gas turbine commissioned at Southern Cross Mid MW South Hedland facility expected to on-line September 2015 Solomon facility, acquired from Fortescue in 2012, commissioned $ $80 $ $ $20 $0 0 45