Session IX: Special topics
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1 Session IX: Special opics 2. Subnaional populaion projecions 10 March 2016 Cheryl Sawyer, Lina Bassarsky Populaion Esimaes and Projecions Secion Maerials adaped from Unied Naions Naional Workshop on Subnaional Populaion Projecions using Census Daa, Beijing, China, 2013 and US Census Bureau Subnaional Projecions Toolki User s Guide version 2.0. Regional Workshop on he Producion of Populaion Projecions Addis Ababa, 7-11 March 2016
2 Demand for subnaional projecions o Subnaional populaion projecions are increasingly in demand. They are an imporan informaion source for regional and local policy makers. o Subnaional populaion projecions are also imporan for counries ha are large and have a diverse populaion. In such circumsances, naional populaion projecions may no effecively and accuraely reflec he demographic seings in is adminisraive or regional eniies.
3 Challenges o Generaing sub-naional projecions ha are boh inernally consisen and consisen wih a naional projecion is more challenging han preparing a naional projecion. o Each subnaional eniy presens he same daa problems as he naional projecion bu, in addiion, preserving consisency across regions and dealing wih daa problems ha are ofen more severe han hose a he naional level adds o he challenge.
4 Regional probabiliies of dying ( n q x ) Malawi, 1998 Census 1.00 Norhern Cenral Souhern nqx Age
5 Boom up vs. op down o Boom-up Cohor-componen projecions made for subnaional areas Naional projecion creaed as sum of subnaional projecions o Top-down Conrols subnaional area projecions o he naional oal Two possible approaches for projecing subnaional areas: Mahemaical exrapolaion (raio) mehods Cohor componen mehod Combinaion of hese wo approaches common
6 Illusraion of inegraed approach combining cohor componen and rend mehods Naional level cohor componen Regional level cohor componen Disric level raio Source: US Census Bureau. Subnaional Projecions Toolki User s Guide v. 2.0
7 Mahemaical exrapolaion (raio mehod) vs cohor componen o Decision of which mehod o apply for lower adminisraive unis has o be made on a counry-by-counry basis o Consideraion o populaion size, daa availabiliy and daa qualiy o Daa appropriae for he cohor-componen mehod may be limied a he regional level
8 The raio mehod o The raio mehod is applied mainly for projecing he populaion of small areas wihin a counry for which all inpus required by he componen mehod are no always readily available o Three varians presened here Consan share Shif share Logisic implemenaion
9 The raio mehod: consan share o The consan share mehod holds he smaller area s share of he paren populaion consan a a cerain poin in ime, usually a he base year. o Daa requiremens are ligh: Populaion figures for he smaller areas are required for one poin in ime only, and for he paren area a populaion projecion. o Like all variaions of he raio mehod, he consan-share mehod is usually applied o oal populaions, someimes disaggregaed by sex
10 Toal Populaion a ime (Paren Populaion) P Sub Populaion in region i a ime Raio (child i o paren a ime =0) * i i i i i P P X P P X P The raio mehod: consan share
11 The raio mehod: consan share Year World 7,349 7,758 8,141 8,501 populaion (P 0 ) (P 1 ) (P 2 ) (P 3 ) Asian 4,393 Populaion Raio of Asia o World, (X 0i ) Projeced 4,638 4, Asian (P 1 x X 0i ) (P 2 x X 0i ) (P 3 x X 0i ) populaion 11
12 The raio mehod: consan share
13 The raio mehod: shif share o The shif-share mehod allows for changes in populaion shares of he smaller areas over ime. o The rends of changing shares may be deermined by inspecing pas rends or by formulaing appropriae assumpions. o The shif-share mehod does no guaranee plausible resuls, so care mus be aken and consrains inroduced o avoid exremely large subpopulaions or even negaive populaion figures.
14 The raio mehod: shif share Toal Populaion a ime (Paren Populaion) P Sub Populaion a ime Year Base year Number of years in he projecion period Number of years in he base period * i i i i P b z y P P z P P P y 0 i b b P P P
15 The raio mehod: logisic implemenaion o US Census Bureau ool SALGST.xls uses logisic fis o projec subarea proporions from wo censuses and conrol o naional populaion projecion oal
16 The raio mehod: logisic implemenaion Resul of logisic fi for individual areas Adjus proporions o sum o 1 Projeced populaion by disric
17 Raio mehods: advanages and shorcomings o Minimum of daa o Ease of use o Problemaic for longer projecion periods o No or lile informaion on he demographic characerisics of he populaion
18 Subnaional cohor componen projecions o Challenges in he preparaion of cohor componen inpus for subnaional areas Because subnaional populaions are smaller han he naional one, daa may show more irregulariies and flucuaions. This affecs all elemens of demographic componens: feriliy, moraliy and migraion. If a populaion is small, is age composiion is also subjec o random flucuaions. Projecions of TFR, life expecancy a subnaional level should be consisen wih naional projecion US Census Bureau subnaional oolki has ools for projecing consisen TFR (PROJTFR32) or e 0 (PROJE032) given subnaional esimaes for base year and projeced naional rend
19 Subnaional cohor componen projecions o Migraion in subnaional cohor componen projecions Inernaional migraion for naional populaions is usually inegraed ino he projecion as ne migraion, ha is he balance of immigraion and emigraion. If migraion is of relaively small magniude, inernaional migraion has ofen even been ignored (e.g. assumed o be zero). Ignoring migraion is almos always no possible for subnaional projecions. The magniude of inernal migraion is in mos cases larger han inernaional migraion, and herefore has significan demographic impac ha canno be ignored. US Census Bureau subnaional oolki has ool for projecing subnaional ne migraion (MIGSUB) using inpu on populaion by duraion of residence
20 Sofware for subnaional cohor componen projecions Specrum o Creae separae projecion files for each subnaional area. o Files are aggregaed using ToolsMore oolsaggregae (for deails, see secion 7.2 of he Specrum manual) o Specrum can be used for exploraive subnaional projecions ha can be compared and aggregaed. o However, Specrum does no (ye) provide consisency mechanisms ha guaranee ha individual projecions are consisen wih and add up o he naional oal.
21 Sofware for subnaional cohor componen projecions US Census Bureau Subnaional Projecions Toolki o Well-developed and suppored oolki o Series of Excel shees o suppor preparaion of inpus for subnaional files o Uses RUP projecion sofware, RUPAGG o aggregae inpu files for subnaional regions o Provides workbook for adjusing subnaional populaion by age and sex o naional oals
22 Conrolling subarea resuls o naional oal o Projeced populaion oals by age and sex for subunis need o be conrolled o naional oals for consisency o Ieraively adjus columns and rows of a wo-way able. Called by various erms: ieraive proporional fiing, coningency able, wo-way raking o US Census Bureau workbook CTBL32.xls provides abiliy o adjus up o 32 subpopulaions by age
23 Conrolling subarea resuls o naional oal Oupu Inpu
24 Thank you Quesions? >> unil 11 March: >> Afer 11 March: Regional Workshop on he Producion of Populaion Projecions Addis Ababa, 7-11 March 2016
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