Driving Profitable Growth Mercer International Inc. CIBC 21st Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2018

Transcription

1 Driving Profitable Growth Mercer International Inc. CIBC 21st Whistler Institutional Investor Conference January 26, 2018

2 The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 provides a safe harbor for forwardlooking statements. Certain information included in this presentation contains statements that are forwardlooking, such as statements relating to results of operations and financial conditions and business development activities, as well as capital spending and financing sources. Such forwardlooking information involves important risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect anticipated results in the future and, accordingly, such results may differ materially from those expressed in any forwardlooking statements made by or on behalf of Mercer. For more information regarding these risks and uncertainties, review Mercer s filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. Unless required by law, we do not assume any obligation to update forwardlooking statements based on unanticipated events or changed expectations. 2

3 Building a Platform for Growth A history of execution... To create a foundation for growth 2002 Brownfield rebuild of Rosenthal mill 2004 Greenfield construction of Stendal mill 2005 Acquisition of Celgar mill 2010 Celgar Blue Goose Green Energy Project 2014 Stendal Blue Mill Green Energy Project 2014 Stendal minority interest buy out and refinancing 2015 Rosenthal tall oil plant 2017 Friesau sawmill acquisition Balance sheet Credit ratio Dividend TTM EBITDA Core strategic focus 2.3x net leverage BB / Ba3 $0.50 / share $228 M Asset optimization and growth in adjacent businesses 3

4 Global Growth & Diversification Rosenthal 360,000 tonnes NBSK 57 MW energy $2 million biochemicals Stendal 660,000 tonnes NBSK 148 MW energy $11 million biochemicals Celgar 520,000 tonnes NBSK 100 MW energy Friesau 550,000 Mfbm lumber (1) 13 MW energy NBSK Pulp 1.5 million tonnes Other 9% China 28% Sales Mix (2) Wood Products 550 million board feet (1) Other 9% US 8% Energy & Chemicals $84 million fixed rate energy (3) $13 million biochemicals Canada 11% EU 63% EU 83% EU 89% (1) On a continuously operating basis (2) Trailing 12 months ended September 30, 2017 by revenue (3) Pro forma full year of Friesau operations ($10 million) 4

5 Competitive Pulp Mills Our pulp operations are some of the largest and most modern NBSK facilities in the world Low production cost Low maintenance capital requirements Strong environmental performance Net energy exporters NBSK Producer Competitiveness (1)(2) Energy & Chemical Revenue Average Mill Capacity (000 tonnes) Nanaimo 50 Aditya Birla APP (Paper Excellence) Catalyst Canfor Pulp Domtar Resolute International Paper (Ilim) West Fraser Södra Cell SCA Metsä Fibre Stora Enso UPM IP Mondi Billerud Korsnas Average Technical Age (years) Mercer Heinzel Revenue ($ millions) DaishowaMarubeni $110 $88 $66 $44 $22 Chemicals Energy $95 $101 $93 $92 $97 $87 $84 $ Q3 TTM (3) (1) Source: FisherSolve Q data (2) Note: NBSK market pulp only (3) Trailing 12 month results ended September 30, 2017, pro forma full year of Friesau operations, excluding synergies 5

6 Competitive Sawmill Friesau a strong entry into the global softwood lumber market Comparable size to some of the largest sawmills in North America Capable of producing green, kilndried, planed lumber for all global markets Top 20 Largest Softwood Sawmills (1) North America Europe Other (2) 500 Mfbm Note: Converted from m 3 to board feet at a rate of 1.6 m 3 per board foot (1) Source: Sawmill capacities as per (2) On a continuously operating basis 6

7 Core Competencies Innovation Wood Merchandising Large buyer of wood in central Europe Buying full spectrum of pulpwood and sawlog grades and selling grades surplus to our needs Eastern Europe Reach Source all wood grades from traditionally harder to access countries in eastern Europe through our JV Optimized logistics in our procurement region Mobilization of Waste Wood Negotiated contracts and constructed equipment to recover wood in BC previously left behind to be burned after harvesting Optimized logistics in our procurement region Germany Wood Logistics Maintain fleet of 300 railcars 200 patentprotected, custom, high volume log railcars which allow us to economically source fiber from considerable distances Dedicated Baltic Sea port with a direct link to Stendal and Friesau enables deep reach into Scandinavia, Russia, Estonia, Latvia and UK 7

8 Core Competencies Continuous Improvement Wood Costs A leading example of a cultural value that pervades our operations we reduced wood input costs by ~$100 per tonne of pulp ($150 million annually) in the past four years Energy and BioChemical Growth We have grown this business considerably over the past five years (though revenues in US dollars have flattened in recent years due to rising USD impacts on euro and CADdenominated sales) Steady Advancement of Existing NBSK Assets Deep technical, engineering and operating expertise combined with rigorously evaluated capital and maintenance program delivers steady growth in asset productivity: Record annual NBSK production at Stendal in 2016 Record annual NBSK production at Rosenthal in 2016 Record energy exports in Q Record annual tall oil production in 2016 US$ / tonne GWh $370 $340 $310 $280 $250 $ Q Pulp Segment Wood Costs (1) Q Q Germany Energy Sales Q Q (1) Combined wood costs for Celgar, Rosenthal and Stendal and converted using quarterly average FX rates

9 Core Competencies Execution Excellence 2013 Workforce reduction at Celgar cost reduction 2014 Workforce reduction at Stendal cost reduction Project Blue Mill expansion at Stendal higher pulp and energy production Tall oil plant at Rosenthal increase biochemicals 2015 Upgraded evaporation plants at Stendal and Rosenthal Tall oil production optimization at Stendal and Rosenthal 2016 New high capacity log rail car fleet wood cost reduction Focus on high return upgrades at Celgar Expansion of railway reload at Celgar pulp delivery cost reduction New long log rail acceptance capabilities at Rosenthal more flexible wood fiber sourcing New chip receiving facility at Rosenthal 9

10 Financial Snapshot Outstanding debt ($million) Operating EBITDA ($ millions) $300 $240 $180 $120 $ Improving EBITDA Performance (1) Electricity / Chemicals Pulp Wood Products Q3 TTM Debt Composition Credit Ratings Corporate rating: S&P BB / Moody s Ba3 Senior notes rating: S&P BB / Moody s B (2) 9 Solid Balance Sheet Foundation Net Debt / EBITDA 7.4x x 2.6x 2.3x 2.2x Q3 Mercer Share Price Growth $18 $12 $6 15Jan 15Jul 16Jan 16Jul 17Jan 17Jul (2) (3) Note: Some numbers may not add due to rounding (1) Our reporting currency was the euro up until October 1, Prior figures have been converted to US dollars at the average FX rates in effect during the period (2) Trailing 12 month results ended September 30, 2017, pro forma full year of Friesau operations, excluding synergies (3) Net debt includes restricted cash 10

11 Value Creation Strategy What you can watch for in the future (1) Improve assets (2) Diversify Operating EBITDA (1) (3) Seize growth opportunities leveraging core competencies (4) Manage balance sheet to maintain dividend and enable growth (5) Foundation for long term growth built on sustainability best practices Driving Celgar to its full potential Continuing debottlenecking at Stendal and Rosenthal Fast payback projects at Friesau Biomethanol at Stendal Chip screening and bleach plant upgrades at Rosenthal Ramp up of Friesau sawmill to capitalize on capex opportunities and alternative market capability Optimization of biochemicals production Further growth in nonnbsk businesses Growth in areas of core competence: NBSK Energy Biochemicals / wood derivatives Wood products Specialty pulp and paper products Committed to quarterly dividend Maintain prudent net leverage level, with flexibility to temporarily increase for acquisitions PEFC and FSC certified products Innovative forest utilization initiatives CEOled Road to Zero health and safety initiative Deep and growing engagement in communities in we operate (1) Operating EBITDA is a nongaap measure. For a Reconciliation of Net Income to Operating EBITDA, please refer to Appendix C 11

12 Appealing Market Opportunities NBSK Lumber Demand Steady growth from emerging economies, including China, across spectrum of grades Stricter enforcement of environmental policies reshaping fiber supplydemand fundamentals in China (agricultural pulps, recycled paper) Stable demand in western economies Improving global economies and paper prices Recovering Eurozone economies supporting modest demand growth Steady continued recovery of US housing starts Storm damage rebuilding Supply New NBSK capacities ramping up as expected (Varo 2016, Aanekoski August 2017) Russian producers cycling from softwood to hardwood Many old, high cost NBSK mills still running Softwood Lumber Agreement still being negotiated for Canadian producers Pine Beetle and historic overcutting resulting in annual cut reviews / reductions across Canada Wildfire impacts on BC production 12

13 Financial Snapshot Stabilizing EBITDA Performance (1) Solid Balance Sheet Foundation 2017 Q3 TTM (2) Electricity / Chemicals Pulp Wood Products $ Q3 (2) 2.2x Net Debt / EBITDA (3) 2016 $ x 2015 $ x 2014 $ x 2013 $ x Outstanding debt ($million) Debt Composition Credit Ratings Corporate rating: S&P BB / Moody s Ba3 Senior notes rating: S&P BB / Moody s B Note: Some numbers may not add due to rounding (1) Our reporting currency was the euro up until October 1, Prior figures have been converted to US dollars at the average FX rates in effect during the period (2) Trailing 12 month results ended September 30, 2017, pro forma full year of Friesau operations, excluding synergies (3) Net debt includes restricted cash 13

14 Profitable Growth Foundation Attractive longterm fundamentals in key markets Management committed to growth, in spaces where we have clear competencies Consistent investor return, commitment to the dividend Strong balance sheet discipline, within solid parameters Commitment to best practices in sustainability and operational excellence, a strong foundation for long term value creation 14

15 Appendix A NBSK Market Primer 15

16 NBSK Market Primer Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft ( NBSK ) is produced from spruce, pine, fir and cedar grown primarily in the forests of Canada, Northern Europe and NorthCentral Russia NBSK characteristics compared to other pulps Long fiber length yielding high tensile strength High fiber diameter yielding good bonding surface Low cell wall thickness yielding high flexibility Chemical Pulp Demand (1) (60 million tonnes) Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp Demand (1) (25 million tonnes) Key end uses Tissue Hardwood Kraft (principally eucalyptus) 54% Softwood Kraft 42% NBSK 59% Radiata 14% SBSK / Fluff 27% Specialties Other 4% NBSK Demand ~15 million tonnes (1) Source: PPPC (2016A); some numbers may not add due to rounding 16

17 NBSK Capacity Drivers NBSK Demand Changes Increased NBSK demand for tissue and specialty products continues to rise globally In developing countries, demand for NBSK across all end uses is growing Increasing income levels, rapid urbanization of populations and rising living standards are creating strong demand for fiber of all grades millions of tonnes Global BSK Demand by Region (1) % % % % E 2021E % China of Total Region E CAGR China 11.3% W. Europe (1.5%) N. America (0.6%) Other 1.7% % China Demand for NBSK in printing and writing grades, while stabilizing in recent years, has fallen in the developed economies of North America and Western Europe due to the digitalization of print media Despite declines in developed countries, the global compounded annual growth rate of NBSK demand was ~1.7% between 2010 and 2015, or an average of ~236 thousand tonnes per year (1) millions of tonnes NBSK Demand by End Use (1)(2) Printing & Writing 61% Tissue 17% Specialties & Others 22% Printing & Writing 25% Tissue 45% Specialties & Others 30% End Use CAGR P&W: (6%) Tissue: +10% Specialty & Others: +4% (1) Source: PPPC (November 2017) for NBSK Demand (2) Source: Brian McClay (November 2016) for NBSK End Uses 17

18 NBSK China China is the leader of demand growth in developing economies In China, demand for NBSK grew on average by 11.9% between 2010 and 2015 on a compound basis (1) Growth has been driven by higher living standards which is driving growth across all end uses, but is most pronounced in high NBSKcontaining tissue and specialties products millions of tonnes China s BSK Pulp Demand by End Use (4) End Use CAGR (5) Other 8.3% P&W Papers (Woodfree) 6.1% Specialty Papers 11.6% Paperboard 7.3% Tissue 19.9% Tissue Demand (kg / person) Tissue Demand & Income 25% in China (2)(3) % Income per Capita CAGR: +8.4% 17% 45% Tissue Demand per Capita CAGR: +7.7% (1) Source: PPPC (May 2017) for NBSK demand (2) Source: PPPC (May 8, 2017, prepared for Mercer International) (3) Note: Income measured at purchasing power parity in constant 2011 US dollars (4) Source: PPPC (November 2017) for BSK demand and PPPC (June 2016) for end uses (5) Other includes fluffbased products, kraft papers, mechanical printing & writing grades and newsprint (6) Source: Brian McClay (October 6, 2017) $16 $12 $8 $4 Income (000 s US$ / person) millions of tonnes Fastest Growth Tissue Capacity Growth by Region (6) China E 2018E Rest of World 18

19 NBSK Capacity Changes 000 s tonnes 000 s tonnes 000 s tonnes 3,000 2,000 1,000 (1,000) 3,000 2,000 1,000 (1,000) NBSK Market Pulp Net Capacity Changes (1) 1, (170) E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E SBSK/Fluff/Radiata Market Pulp Net Capacity Changes (1) 3,000 2,000 1,000 (1,000) (115) (235) (230) E 2018E 2019E 2020E Hardwood Market Pulp Net Capacity Changes (1) 2,040 1,420 1,325 1, E 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E BEK Other BHK (80) Pulp Price ($/tonne) $1,200 $1,000 $800 $600 $400 $200 Price Impact of New Capacity (2) Capacity NBSK cif Europe BEKP cif China Capacity additions have been displacing Chinese domestic agriculturalbased, high polluting pulp and deteriorating availability and quality of recycled fiber Pulp price changes in the past were more heavily influenced by global economic conditions than capacity additions Capacity Additions (million tonnes) (1) Source: Hawkins Wright (December 2017) (2) Source: Hawkins Wright (November 13, 2017, prepared for Mercer International) 19

20 NBSK Pricing Trend $1,350 NBSK Price & BSK Global Inventory 49 NBSK Price ($/tonne) $1, $1, $ $ $ $450 7 $ (1) (2) (2)(3) (2)(3) BSK Global Inventory NBSK List Price (in US$) NBSK List Price (in CAD) NBSK List Price (in ) Global NBSK Inventory (# Days) Most NBSK is produced in euro and Canadian dollar zones, so the U.S. dollar NBSK price can be influenced by changing exchange rates, as was the case in 2015 NBSK was, until the early 2000 s, the global benchmark pulp grade used in most paper applications With the introduction of southern eucalyptus hardwood plantations and mills, hardwood pushed NBSK out of many lowstrength paper grades During this time the global NBSK capacity rationalized to supply customers seeking high strength and bonding characteristics (1) Source: PPPC monthly World Chemical Market Pulp Flash reports for inventories (2) Source: Brian McClay Market Pulp Monthly reports for pricing (3) Source: FactSet for exchange rates 20

21 Appendix B Overview of Operations 21

22 Rosenthal Mill Location: Blankenstein, Germany (~300 km south of Berlin) Pulp production capacity: 360,000 tonnes per year Electricity generating capacity: 57 MW Certification: ISO 9001, 14001, and green electricity sales: $17.1 million 2016 biochemical sales: $1.5 million Key Features: Built in 1999 modern and efficient Strategically located in central Europe Close proximity to stable fiber supply and nearby sawmills Allows customers to operate using justintime inventory process, lowering their costs and making Rosenthal a preferred supplier One of the largest biomass power plants in Germany In 2016, the mill sold 169,249 MWh of green electricity Regularly setting new pulp and energy production records 6,000 tonne per year tall oil plant became operational in Q

23 Stendal Mill Location: Stendal, Germany (~130 km west of Berlin) Pulp production capacity: 660,000 tonnes per year Electricity generating capacity: 148 MW Certification: ISO 9001 and green electricity sales: $45.0 million 2016 biochemical sales: $11.3 million Key Features: Completed in 2004, it s one of the newest and largest pulp mills in the world In September 2014, we completed the acquisition of the minority interest and other rights in the Stendal mill One of the largest biomass power plants in Germany In 2016, exported 479,310 MWh Project Blue Mill was completed in Q and, among other things, increased the mill s annual pulp production capacity by 30,000 tonnes and electricity generation by 109,000 MWh Regularly setting new performance records 23

24 Celgar Mill Location: Castlegar, BC, Canada (~600 km east of Vancouver) Pulp production capacity: 520,000 tonnes per year Electricity generating capacity: 100 MW Certification: ISO 9001 and green electricity sales: $9.4 million Key Features: Modern and efficient Abundant and low cost fiber, by global standards Green Energy Project was completed in September 2010 One of the largest biomass power plants in Canada In 2016, the mill sold 137,286 MWh of green electricity Continues to demonstrate significant upside potential 24

25 Friesau Sawmill & Power Plant Location: Friesau, Germany (~300 km south of Berlin) Lumber production capacity: 550,000 Mfbm (1) Energy generating capacity: 49.5 MW (13 MW electricity) 2016 lumber sales (under prior owner): $115 million (+ $20 million in residuals) 2016 green electricity sales: $10.0 million Key Features: High quality logs from surrounding fiber basket Sawmill built in 1992 Two highvolume Linck sawlines Ability to produce both rough and planed products European metric and specialty lumber; USdimensional lumber; Jgrade Power plant built in 2008 Plant can be fueled by bark, chips, sawdust and recycled wood At input feed of 1.6 million m 3, power plant can be fueled entirely by residual bark EEG feedin tariff extends to 2029 (1) On a continuously operating basis 25

26 Appendix C Financial Highlights 26

27 Stabilizing EBITDA Operating EBITDA ($ millions) $360 $270 $180 $90 ($90) Annual Operating EBITDA by Product (1)(2) 297 Electricity / Chemicals Pulp Wood Products (6) Q3 (3) TTM Operating EBITDA ($ millions) $100 $75 $50 $ % 18 7% 33 12% 27 10% 59 19% 42 15% Quarterly Operating EBITDA (1)(2)(4) Operating EBITDA Pulp Segment Margin Wood Products Segment Margin 68 23% 71 26% 61 24% 50 19% Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q % 26% 45 18% 35 17% 48 21% 58 28% 59 25% 39 15% 7% 64 23% 13% 40% 30% 20% 10% Operating EBITDA Margin Note: Some numbers may not add due to rounding (1) For a Reconciliation of Net Income to Operating EBITDA, please refer to Appendix C (2) Our reporting currency was the euro up until October 1, Prior figures have been converted to US dollars at the average FX rates in effect during the period (3) Trailing 12 month results ended September 30, 2017, pro forma full year of Friesau operations, excluding synergies (4) Operating EBITDA Margin is Operating EBITDA expressed as a percentage of revenues 27

28 Credit Profile Restructured balance sheet 2014 Acquired the minority interest in Stendal Restricted / unrestricted group structure eliminated Debt reduction Balance sheet recapitalized with lower cost debt 2015 Commenced quarterly dividend of $0.115 per share Outstanding debt ($million) % Senior Notes Debt Composition % Senior Notes % Senior Notes Senior Notes replaced with lower cost 2024 Senior Notes $300 million of 2022 Senior Notes replaced with lower cost 2026 Senior Notes Credit ratings Corporate rating S&P BB / Moody s Ba3 Senior notes rating S&P BB / Moody s B1 Increased dividend to $0.125 per share 28

29 Reconciling Net Income to EBITDA in US$ millions TTM (1) PF TTM (2) Net Income Attributable to Common Shareholders Add: Net Income Attributable to NonControlling Interest 7.8 Add: Income Tax Provision (Benefit) (16.8) Add: Interest Expense Add: Loss (Gain) on Derivative Instruments (11.5) (0.0) Add: Other Expense (3) (4) (5) Operating Income Add: Depreciation and Amortization Operating EBITDA Operating EBITDA Comprised of: Pulp NBSK Energy BioChemicals Wood Products (Lumber & Energy) Corporate Costs & Eliminations (4.1) (4.4) (9.0) (9.4) (9.4) Note: See next page for additional disclosures Note: Some numbers may not add due to rounding (1) TTM represents trailing 12 month results ended Q (2) PF TTM is trailing 12 month results ended Q3 2017, pro forma full year of Friesau operations, excluding synergies (3) Completed acquisition of minority interest in September 2014 (4) Includes debt settlement gain of $31.9 million related to the acquisition of the minority shareholder debt at Stendal and debt settlement loss of $20.5 million related to the 2017 Senior Notes (5) Includes debt settlement loss of $10.7 million related to the 2019 Senior Notes from Q

30 Reconciling Net Income to EBITDA Note: For other reconciliations of Net Income (Loss) to Operating EBITDA in periods not shown, please refer to that period s respective Form 10Q or 10K, which can be found on our website ( Operating EBITDA is defined as operating income (loss) plus depreciation and amortization and nonrecurring capital asset impairment charges. Management uses Operating EBITDA as a benchmark measurement of its own operating results, and as a benchmark relative to its competitors. Management considers it to be a meaningful supplement to operating income (loss) as a performance measure primarily because depreciation expense and nonrecurring capital asset impairment charges are not an actual cash cost, and depreciation expense varies widely from company to company in a manner that management considers largely independent of the underlying cost efficiency of their operating facilities. In addition, we believe Operating EBITDA is commonly used by securities analysts, investors and other interested parties to evaluate our financial performance. Operating EBITDA does not reflect the impact of a number of items that affect our net income (loss) attributable to common shareholders, including financing costs and the effect of derivative instruments. Operating EBITDA is not a measure of financial performance under the accounting principles generally accepted in the United States of America ( GAAP ), and should not be considered as an alternative to net income (loss) or income (loss) from operations as a measure of performance, nor as an alternative to net cash from operating activities as a measure of liquidity. Operating EBITDA has significant limitations as an analytical tool, and should not be considered in isolation, or as a substitute for analysis of our results as reported under GAAP. Operating EBITDA should only be considered as a supplemental performance measure and should not be considered as a measure of liquidity or cash available to us to invest in the growth of our business. Because all companies do not calculate Operating EBITDA in the same manner, Operating EBITDA as calculated by us may differ from Operating EBITDA or EBITDA as calculated by other companies. We compensate for these limitations by using Operating EBITDA as a supplemental measure of our performance and by relying primarily on our GAAP financial statements. 30

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