Inter-industry Forecasting Model of Taiwan. Research motivation and literature reviews. Scenarios and estimated results
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1 Yu-Wen Su ( 蘇鈺雯 ) Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK), Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) yuwensu@itri.org.tw sophieywsu@gmail.com
2 Introduction INFORTW Inter-industry Forecasting Model of Taiwan 47 industries, Outline Research motivation and literature reviews INFORTW model development Scenarios and estimated results Conclusions and suggestions 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 2
3 Research Motivation To use the survey and data foundation of the Industrial Economic and Knowledge (IEK) Center To systematize the industrial analysis To develop a national economic (top-down) model and cooperate to the FORECAST/MURE (bottom-up) model INFORTW (Top-down economic model) GDP, production, labor, price FORECAST/MURE (Bottom-up technical model) Energy consumption, technical improvement 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 3
4 Literature Reviews (1/2) Johanson-type Johansen (1960) Dixon et al. (1982) Taiwan TAIGEM Li et al. (2003) GEMMET Lin et al. (2009, 2012) Multisectoral Models Scarf-type Adelman (1969) Shoven and Whalley (1984) Dervis et al. (1982) Jorgenson-type Hudson and Jorgenson (1974) Jorgenson and Wilcoxen (1990) Model of the Council for Economic Planning and Development of Taiwan DGEMT Liang and Jorgenson (2003) Liang (2004) Inforum-type Almon (1966, 1974, 1988, 1991) Monaco (1991) Nyhys (1991) INFORTW 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 4
5 Literature Reviews (2/2) MUDAN (Yu, 1997) China INFORGE (Ahlert, 2001; Bach et al., 2002; Lutz et al., 2005, 2007; Meyer et al., 2007a, 2007b; Giljum et al., 2008; Lehr et al., 2008; Wiebe et al., 2012) Germany INFORUMtype models ITIMO (Bardazzi et al., 1991; Bardazzi and Barnabani, 2001) JIDEA IMPEC (Orlowski and Tomaszewicz, 1991) MIDE (Werling, 1992) LIFT (McCarthy, 1991; Dowd et al.,1998) INFORTW Italy Japan Poland Spain U.S. Taiwan 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 5
6 Model INFORTW (1/6) Price-Income Side Real Side f p #1 #2 #3 y c i g x m #1 p1 y11 y12 y13 c1 i1 g1 x1 m1 y1 #2 p2 y21 y22 y23 c2 i2 g2 x2 m2 y2 #3 p3 y31 y32 y33 c3 i3 g3 x3 m3 y3 w w1 w2 w3 a A = a a y1 y = y2 y a a a f f = f f a a a c c = c c f = c + i + g + x m va = w + d + pr + tax v = va y va d d1 d2 d3 pr pr1 pr2 pr3 tax tax1 tax2 tax3 y p y1 y2 y3 y = A y + f y = (I 0 A) 1 f p = A p + v p = (I 0 A ) 1 v 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 6
7 Model INFORTW (2/6) Estimation of final demands (Real side) Consumption demand c i,t = C(c i,t-1, p i,t, y t, t), i = 1, 13 Consumption Bridge Matrix (BC) Investment demand i i,t = I(i i,t-1, y i,t, r t, t), i = 1, 19 Government expenditure given as an exogenous variable Export Investment Bridge Matrix (BI) Public Administration Service Industry Import e i,t = E(e i,t-1, p e i,t, p f t, y f t), i = 1, 47 m i,t = M(m i,t-1, p m i,t, p i,t, y t ), i = 1, 47 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 7
8 Model INFORTW (3/6) Estimation of value added (Price-income side) Wage, Labor productivity & Labor demand w i,t = W(w i,t-1, w t, prl i,t ), i = 1, 47 prl i,t = PRL(Δy i,t, i i,t-1, t), i = 1, 47 Depreciation expense y i, t l i,t =, i = 1, 47 prl i, t d i,t = D(d i,t-1, k i,t, t), i = 1, 47 Operating profit pr i,t = PR(pr i,t-1, Δy i,t, p i,t-1 ), i = 1, 47 Indirect tax tax i,t = TAX(va i,t, t), i = 1, 47 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 8
9 (BC) (BI) Model Consumption by category Investment by category Government expenditure (g) Export (x) Import (m) INFORTW (4/6) (BC) Consumption by product (c) (BI) Investment by product (i) Connection & Equilibrium Real Side Final demand (f) Input coefficient matrix (A) Output (y) (Stata v.13) Labor productivity (prl) Depreciation (d) Profit (pr) Tax (tax) Labor (l) Wage (w) Value added (va) Unit value added (v) Input coefficient matrix (A ) Price-income Side Price (p) 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 9
10 Model INFORTW (5/6) Data source Directorate General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) of Taiwan Annual national account 5-year updated input output table Data mismatch problem RAS method Ministry of Finance of Taiwan Export & import (price & quantity) World Development Indicators (WDI) of the World Bank World production and price 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 10
11 Model INFORTW (6/6) RAS method* Solve biproportional constrained matrix problem Data mismatch between I O tables and national accounts I O tables update every five years BA column sum of AB = y-va (v) va y row sum y-f sumof B (u) of = y-f A (u) f y *RAS method Given a nonnegative matrix A (m x n) and positive vectors u, v, then the biproportional constrained matrix problem is to find a nonnegative matrix B (m x n) such that B = diag(r) A diag(s) holds for vectors r R m and s R n, and the row (column) sums of B equal to u i (v j ), i = 1,...m (j = 1,...n). (Bacharach, 1970) 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 11
12 Scenarios Energy efficiency improvement for iron & steel industry Electricity input decrease (%) Gas input decrease (%) Investment increase (USD) Scenario 1 Base scenario Scenario 2 Weak scenario Scenario 3 Strong scenario (Stage 1) (Stage 2) mil mil mil. Implement time Scenarios are provided by the technical model FORECAST/MURE (Forecasting Energy Consumption Analysis and Simulation Tool / Mesures d Utilisation Rationnelle de l Energie; Fleiter et al., 2011, 2012). 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 12
13 Estimated Results (1/7, base scenario) USD$555.7 billion USD$502.7 billion 2.08% 1.98% INFORTW estimated results of macroeconomic variables ( ) 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 13
14 Estimated Results (2/7, base scenario) USD$7.04 billion USD$6.75 billion INFORTW estimated results for productions of iron & steel industry ( ) 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 14
15 Estimated Results (3/7, impact scenario) Energy efficiency improvement for iron & steel industry INFORTW estimated results for iron & steel industry 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 15
16 Estimated Results (4/7, impact scenario) Energy efficiency improvement for iron & steel industry INFORTW estimated results for Taiwan 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 16
17 Estimated Results (5/7, impact scenario) 6 years of recovery Multiplier = ΔGDP/ΔI = 4 ΔGDP = +536 (ΔI = ) ΔGDP = +198 (ΔI = +50.7) Production changes due to energy efficiency improvement in iron & steel industry 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 17
18 Estimated Results (6/7, impact scenario) Employee changes due to energy efficiency improvement in iron & steel industry 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 18
19 Estimated Results (7/7, results review) Investments in the energy efficiency improvement for the iron and steel industry Has positive effects on Taiwan s GDP & labor market The multiplier of the investment is nearly 4 times Due to the 6 years recovery period, the iron and steel industry has less incentive to invest in the short term 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 19
20 Conclusion (1/2) Develops the model INFORTW 47 industries, Contains real side & price-income side Employs I O tables, national accounts & RAS method Impact simulations Energy efficiency improvement for iron & steel industry 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 20
21 Conclusion (2/2) Further research Maintaining 2011 I O table updates (released in mid-2014) Further annual data collected Extending Energy module Green industry module Detailed industry module 9/9/2014 INFORTW / 2014 Inforum World Conference 21
22 Thank you Yu-Wen Su ( 蘇鈺雯 ) Industrial Economics and Knowledge Center (IEK), Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) yuwensu@itri.org.tw sophieywsu@gmail.com
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