FIMA Daily Insight CROATIA SLOVENIA ROMANIA BULGARIA. Irena Ivanković. Darko Horvat. November 21, 2016 CROATIA

Transcription

1 CROATIA SLOVENIA ROMANIA BULGARIA FIMA Daily Insight November 21, 2016 CROATIA BENCHMARKS DAILY CHANGES % 0,97% 0,16% -0,51% -0,49% CROBEX SBI BET SOFIX BENCHMARKS 3Y CHARTS Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 CROBEX SBI BET SOFIX BENCHMARKS 1Y % RETURNS Croatian equities closed higher on Friday with both indices increasing; CROBEX increased 0.16% to 1, pts and blue chip CROBEX 10 increased 0.18% to 1, pts. Regular stock turnover amounted to HRK 7.73 million. (Positive) Imperial hotel (HIMRRA CZ) topped the liquidity board collecting HRK 1. million in turnover with a price increase of 0.25% to HRK 8.. Ericsson Nikola Tesla (ERNTRA CZ) has signed an agreement with the Ministry of Interior of the Republic of Croatia on delivery a state border control system. The contracted project is worth nearly HRK 48 mln (VAT excluded). Deadline for realization of works is scheduled to January (Positive) In 9M 2016, Croatian airports reported an increase in the number of passengers by 13% compared to the same period in 2015, according to figures released by the national Statistical office (DZS) on Friday. (Positive) SLOVENIA In 9M 2016, Triglav Group (ZVTG SV) reached EUR 721 mln in gross insurance and coinsurance premiums which was EUR 2 mln higher than in the same period of 2015 (taking into account the sale of the Czech subsidiary in 2015, the Group recorded a 2% premium growth). Non-life insurance premium went up by 1%. Considering the sale of the Czech insurer, however, it grew by 3%. Written premium from life insurance contracts fell by 2%, primarily due to the high sums paid out on the maturity of insurance policies. Health insurance premiums increased by 4%. In 9M 2016, Triglav Group charged 0.3% yoy more premiums in Slovenia and on markets outside Slovenia was higher by 9% compared to the same period in The core insurance business has been affected by mass loss events, the largest being the summer storms with hail and the April frost and local flooding in Slovenia. Triglav Group performed well and ended the first nine months with a net profit of EUR 54 mln and generated a profit before tax of EUR 68 mln. (Neutral) On November 18, the Management Board of Petrol (PETG SV) and the Management of Energetika Crnomelj announced that contract on merger by acquisition, concluded on October 3, was submitted to the registration authority. (Positive) 16,8% 1,5% 20,7% ROMANIA The Romanian leu continued to lose ground versus the US dollar by midday Friday and the central bank set the leu s reference rate versus the dollar at a new record low of units, versus units a day before. (Neutral) -5,6% CROBEX SBI BET SOFIX SALES AND TRADING DESK CONTACTS Irena Ivanković Phone: iivankovic@fima.com Darko Horvat Phone: BULGARIA Bulgaria's Parliament passed the state budget draft at first reading on Friday morning, BGNES wire service reports. The bill foresees an increase in the minimum monthly wage, set at BGN 4 (up by BGN 40) as of January 01, Pension installments will increase by 1%, while the retirement age, the length of service for workers in the mass third labor category and in the Security sector will increase by two months. The pension ceiling remains BGN 910. A deficit of 1.4% for next year is also included. Growth is projected at 2.5% for 2017 and 2.7% for (Positive) In 9M 2016, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Bulgaria was 21% less compared to the same period of last year, central bank statistics show. According to data from the Bulgarian National Bank (BNB), FDI for 9M 2016 amounted to EUR 1.3 bln, which is 2.8% of Bulgaria's gross domestic product (GDP). The figure was lower by EUR mln (by 21.1%) compared to 2015, when FDI was EUR 1.6 bln or 3.6% of GDP. (Negative) trading@fima.com 1

2 Trading day recap CROATIA Market Trunover ( EUR mn): 1,05 1 Imperial 0,20 Hoteli Podgora 26,97% Imunoloski zavod -14,49% 2 Valamar 0,18 Magma 22,58% Tisak -6,66% 3 HT 0,12 Hoteli Jadran 13,38% Badel -5,22% 4 Jamnica 0,09 Petrokemija 3,56% SNH Alfa -3,94% 5 Adris - pfd 0,08 Kutjevo 3,20% SNH Gama -3,67% 6 Podravka 0,08 Ina 2,74% Jadroplov -2,47% 7 Atlantska plov. 0,03 Valamar 1,% SNH Beta -2,02% 8 Medika 0,03 Tehnika 1,35% Auto Hrvatska -2,02% 9 Liburnia 0,02 Zvijezda 1,28% Zitnjak -1,96% Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov ULPL 0,02 Hrvatski Duhani 1,01% RIZO -1,94% CROBEX CRO Tourism CROPLUS Index SLOVENIA Market Trunover ( EUR mn): 1,61 1 Petrol 0,66 Cinkarna Celje 9,73% Sivent -16,67% 2 Krka 0,47 Hram Hldg. 8,89% Intereuropa -3,61% 3 Cinkarna Celje 0,22 Mlinotest 7,84% Telekom Slo. -0,70% 4 Gorenje 0,09 Cetis 5,24% Krka -0,67% 5 Telekom Slo. 0,05 Petrol 3,58% Triglav -0,31% 6 Triglav 0,04 Gorenje 3,45% Sava Re 0,00% 7 Unior 0,02 Tekstina 3,23% Salus 0,00% 70 8 Sava Re 0,01 Kmecka Druzba 1,88% Hotel Union 0,00% 9 Kmecka Druzba 0,01 Luka Koper 0,88% Melamin 0,00% Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov Cetis 0,01 Terme Catez 0,% Nama 0,00% SBI ROMANIA Market Trunover ( EUR mn): 1,79 Volume () Leaders Laggers Volume () Leaders Laggers Volume () Leaders Laggers 1 Romgaz 0,58 Turn Alba Iul 16,7% Braiconf -7,81% 2 Electrica 0,27 Univers 15,26% Upet Targovis -7,69% 3 Banca Trans. 0,23 Serico 12,11% Cocor -7,06% 4 OMV Petrom 0,12 Electroputere 11,11% Remarul 16 Feb -6,58% 5 Electroconstru 0,09 Mobila Radaut 10,61% Rompetrol -5,74% 6 Confectii Vasl 0,09 Tmk-Artrom Sla 6,82% Electromagneti -4,13% 7 BRD 0,06 Imotrust Arad 4,55% Bucur Bucures -3,98% 8 Romcab Tg Mur 0,05 Delivery Solut 4,43% Ves -3,34% Nov-13 Nov-14 Nov-15 Nov-16 9 Fondul Prop. 0,04 Turism Covasna 4,02% Alro -2,48% 10 Electroarges 0,03 Ius Brasov 3,92% Altur -2,31% BET BET-BK Index BULGARIA Market Trunover ( EUR mn): 0,36 Volume () Leaders Laggers May-14 May-15 May-16 SOFIX BGBX40 index 1 Biovet 0,09 Bulgartabak Ho 14,24% Bulgaria Stock -5,02% 2 Assenova Krepo 0,05 Bulgarska Roza 5,59% Chimimport -2,73% 3 Ccb Real Estat 0,05 Yuri Gagarin 5,26% Assenova Krepo -2,68% 4 Investor.Bg 0,03 Aktiv Properti 3,82% Emka -Sevlievo -2,20% 5 Balkan And Sea 0,03 Alcomet -Shume 3,70% Stara Planina -2,00% 6 Himsnab Bulgar 0,03 Zarneni Hrani 3,13% Elhim Iskra -1,81% 7 Galata Investm 0,03 Bulgarian Real 2,94% Monbat -1,27% 8 Lavena 0,01 Elana Agrocred 2,69% Investor.Bg -1,19% 9 Chimimport 0,01 Doverie Holdin 2,12% Insurance Comp -1,15% 10 Trace Group 0,01 Fairplay Prope 1,78% Koro Bulgaria -0,94% 2

3 Fundamentals - overview of selected companies SIZE PRICE VALUATION & PERFORMANCE INDICATORS Name CONSTRUCTION mn Last Price 1D Δ YTD P/E EV/ EV/S P/BV ND / Margin ROE T57 BU 64,3 0,7 5,2 1,36% -8,9% 85,9 2,8 0,3 1,2-2,0 8,9% 1,4% 2,8% DLKVRA CZ 46,0 2,2 14,0 0,00% 2,3% 21,0 8,5 0,9 1,0 7,1 10,7% 4,7% - VDKTRA CZ 18,5-0,6 305,0-0,97% 2,4% -33,6 4,5 0,4 0,4 1,6 9,3% -1,2% - INGRRA CZ 4,8 1,8 2,6-1,12% -9,6% 2,6-20,0 9,5 0,4-19,6-47,7% 14,7% - THNKRA CZ 11,3-0,5 4,0 1,35%,2% -23,4 13,6 0,8 0,3 11,0 5,7% -1,2% - IGHRA CZ 8,6-8,9 105,1 0,00% -0,3% -1,0 239,5 3,2 4,2 214,0 1% -164,9% - DIVERSIFIED ADRSPA CZ 1153,1-35,7 451,8-0,44% 23,9% -32,3 3,6 0,5 0,5-0,9 14,9% -2,9% 3,3% 6C4 BU 174,6 26,2 1,4-2,73% 4,0% 6,7-0,2 0, ,1% 3,2% 4HS BU 8,5 0,2 3,4 - -9,3% 54, , ,5% 6,1% - 5V2 BU 88,3 1,8 33,0-35,3% 47,8 25,1 4,2 1,2 16,3 16,8% 2,5% - 4EH BU 45,0-29,9 0,7-0,58% -4,4% -1, , ,5% 0,4% 5SR BU 63,1 3,2 5,9-2,00% 48,9% 19,5 4,1 0,6 1,5-1,3 16% 7,8% 3,5% ENERGY & UTILITY SNG RO 2061,9 #N/A N/A 24,2 0,00% -11,2% 8,8-1,9 1, ,2% SNP RO 2823,2-177,1 0,2-1,10% -22,4% - 2,4 0,8 0,5 0,2 35,5% -2,9% - TGN RO 782,5-300,0 0,00% 8,3% - 2,9 1,6 1,0-0, ,2% EL RO 1034,5 81,6 13,5-0,74% 10,7% 12,7 2,9 0,4 0,8-3,0 15,1% 6,5% 6,4% TEL RO 472,5-29,1-0,51% -0,2% , ,1% COTE RO 153,4 -,0 0,00% 3,9% - 1,8-1,0-2, ,1% INARA CZ 4248,5-192, ,7 2,74% 8,3% -22,1 19,0 2,3 2,9 1,6 12,2% -12,6% - SNN RO 328,3 33,2 4,9 1,24% -23,4% 9,9 3,0 1,2 0,2 0,2 38% 2,0% 6,7% JNAFRA CZ 662,9 37,1 4.9,0 0,00% 10,0% 17,9 7,7 6,2 1,4-1,3,4% 7,9% 2,7% FOOD & BEVERAGE PODRRA CZ 359,5 53,3 379,9 0,30% 12,8% 6,7 8,0 0,9 1,0 1,8 11,6% 15,5% 1,8% ATGRRA CZ 391,4 32,5 883,3 0,30% 6,7% 12,1 14,0 1,4 2,8 3,1 10,3% 12,2% 1,5% LEDORA CZ 463,1 39,7 11.,0-0,04% 23,1% 11,7 9,2 1,6 1,8 1,0 17,8% 15,9% 3,8% JMNCRA CZ 399,9 44, ,0 0,33% 19,6% 9,0 7,4 1,0 1,6-1,8 13,8% 18,4% - KRASRA CZ 96,8 2,4 530,0 0,00% 7,7% 39,6 11,1 0,9 1,2 1,8 8,1% 3,1% - CKMLRA CZ 90,7 6, ,9 0,03% 30,6% 13,7 8,7 0,7 1,3-1,3 8% 9,2% 0,8% BLJERA CZ 25,3-6,0 23,2-0,22% -4,9% -4,2 17,8 1,7 0,5-9,3% -2,3% - ZVZDRA CZ 58,6 3, ,8 1,28%,4% 17,8 15,0 1,2 1,0 2,4 8% 2,7% - 3

4 Fundamentals - overview of selected companies Name INDUSTRIAL SIZE PRICE VALUATION & PERFORMANCE INDICATORS mn Last Price 1D Δ YTD P/E EV/ EV/S P/BV ND / Margin ROE GRVG SV 146,5 5,3 6,0 3,45% 30,4% 27,9 6,6 0,5 0,4 3,5 7,1% 1,4% - ERNTRA CZ 195,0 11, ,0-0,98% 14,7% 16,6 9,5 0,9 6,3-9,2% 31,1% 9,0% CICG SV 103,8 7,0 127,4 9,73% 67,6% 14,8 2,4 0,3 0,7-0,7 12,9% 5,0% 3,3% DDJHRA CZ 48,5-4,3 48,0 0,48% 81,6% -11,2 83,5 1,4-30,9 1,7% - - ADPLRA CZ 76,8 6,0 137,6 0,12% 40,7% 12,9 7,7 1,0 0,9 3,2 13,2% 7,0% 5,8% 5MB BU 163,0 10,9 8,2-1,27% 2,2% 14,9 9,1 1,5 1,7 1,2 16% 11,8% 3,4% KODTRA CZ 48,6 4, ,0 0,00% 16,0% 11,4 8,2 0,5 1,4-0,2 6,2% 12,9% - 5MH BU 119,8 5,1 6,0-17,7% 23,6 9,1 1,9 3,8-0,8 20,8% 16,3% 3,6% PTKMRA CZ 29,3-9,3 17,2 3,56% 30,5% -3,2-0,5 2, ,4% - INFRASTRUCTURE LKPG SV 322,0 36,5 23,0 0,88% 0,0% 8,8 5,5 2,1 1,0 1,3 38,9% 11,5% 4,9% LKPCRA CZ 30,6-2,6 544,7 0,55% -21,5% -11,6 31,2 1,3 0,6 2,4 4,2% -4,8% - LKRIRA CZ 84,2-0,2 47,0 0,17% 9,0% -417,1 577,9 4,7 0,9-136,3 0,8% -0,2% - MARINE ATPLRA CZ 68,2-23,7 367,9-0,13% 166,9% -2,9-45,0 4,1 0,9 6,4-9,2% -26,4% - TPNGRA CZ 85,9 5,8 74,0 0,00% -1,7% 14,9 11,4 5,5 1,0 6,4 48,6% 7,0% 5,3% LPLHRA CZ 17,6-16,2 200,0-0,05% 2,3% -1,1 13,6 1,8 0,8-1,9 13,6% -76,1% - JDPLRA CZ 9,3-21,6 43,0-2,47% 83,0% -0,4-11,5 9,2 0,2-10,2-79,8% -38,5% - 5BR BU 12,5 1,3 0, ,3% 9,9 8,1 1,5 0,3 0,1 18,5% 3,2% - PHARMA KRKG SV 1836,8 105,2 56,0-0,67% -14,1% 17,5 7,8 1,7 1,3-0,1 21,6% 7,5% 4,7% 3JR BU 188,8 10,6 2,7-0,36% 0,0% 17,8 7,9 0,7 0,9 3,0 8,3% 5,0% 2,6% ATB RO 77,0-0,5 0,78% -2,6% , ,0% BIO RO 58,9-0,3 0,00% -4,3% , ,9% SCD RO 179,2-1,9-0,51% -4,9% , ,9% 53B BU 52,4 9,3 15,1 0,59% 31,3% 5,6-0,5 0, ,5% - RETAIL & DIST. RPH RO 30,2-0,3 0,00% -22,2% MELR SV 427,0 12,0 70,1 0,14% -14,5% 35,7 9,9 0,5 0,7 6,4-1,9% - PETG SV 661,4 73,9 317,0 3,58% 23,9% 9,0 7,4 0,3 1,1 3,1 3,9% 13,3% 4,0% TISKRA CZ 44,4 1,2,0-6,66% -22,2% 37,3 4,9 0,1 1,3-5,2 2,7% 3,5% - MDKARA CZ 66,2 7, ,5-0,67% 32,7% 8,4 11,2 0,4 1,1 3,6 3,2% 13,5% 10,3% PVCMRA CZ - 3,0 172,4 0,31% 72,4% ,9-3,1% 9,0% - 4

5 Fundamentals - overview of selected companies Name TELECOMS SIZE PRICE Last Price 1D Δ YTD P/E VALUATION & PERFORMANCE INDICATORS EV/ EV/S P/BV ND / Margin HTRA CZ 1766,4 127,0 162,3-0,02% 13,0% 13,9 3,7 1,5 1,1-1,1 39,9% 8,3% 3,7% TLSG SV 4,8 20,9 70,5-0,70% -3,4% 22,0 4,3 1,2 0,7 1,9 28% 3,0% 7,1% OPTERA CZ 22,3 2,9 2,6-1,49% 32,0% 7,7 4,3 1,0 4,1 2,5 23,1% - - ROE TOURISM BANKS RIVPRA CZ 567,7 34,3 33,9 1,% 41,7% 16,6 9,7 3,5 1,8 2,2 35,7% 11,7% 1,8% TUHORA CZ 137,7 10, ,0 0,00% 8,8% 13,3 10,3 4,8 2,7 0,1 47% 21,6% 3,2% HIMRRA CZ 68,3 2,8 8,5 0,23% 61,7% 24,7 12,9 5,3 1,4 2,7 41,5% 5,7% 0,4% ARNTRA CZ 124,7 1,1 430,0-0,91% 30,8% 112,3 12,8 3,7 1,2 3,5 29% 1,1% - PLAGRA CZ 421,9 31,8 5.2,0-0,26% 18,7% 13,3 8,6 3,6 1,4 2,3 42,1% 12,4% - LRHRA CZ 144,9-2,3 3.2,4-0,74% -6,9% -64,0 18,9 9,4 2,8 0,6 % -1,9% - HUPZRA CZ 149,7 9,7 2.6,7 0,00% 36,9% 15,5 10,7 4,5 1,5 2,1 42,3% 9,9% - MAISRA CZ 3,0 18,6 240,6-0,67% 5,0% 18,8 7,8 3,5 1,7 1,9 45% 9,5% - 6AB BU 121,9 3,5 55,8-0,67% 11,6% 35,0 11,8 2,8 0,6 3,8 24,0% 1,7% 0,8% HMSTRA CZ 18,2 0,5 265,0 0,00% -11,0% 33,2-2,9 1, ,1% - SUNHRA CZ 61,2-23,7 0,00% 18,7% , ACIRA CZ 92,0 3, ,0 0,00% 7,1% 27,9-4,1 1, ,2% 2,4% SLRSRA CZ,7 #N/A N/A 739,7 0,00% -8,2% , ILRARA CZ 55,1 4, ,0 0,00% 37,5% 13,2-3,6 1, ,5% 1,3% TLV RO 1886,1 5,2 2,3-0,64% 15,8% 3,5 1,4 12,1% 13,0% 0,7 48,8% 5,9% 14,1% BRD RO 1692,1 128,7 11,0-1,26% -9,4% 13,3 1,2 17,0% 12,2% 0,7 9% 1,2% 2,9% ZABARA CZ 2086,5 219,0 49,0 0,47% 34,8% 9,5 0,9-13,3% 1,0 9,4% 1,3% - BCC RO 45,0-17,0 0,1 0,00% -10,5% - 1,0-3,4% 0,4-45% -2,4% - PBZRA CZ 1789,3 210,6 705,5 0,00% 17,8% 8,4 0,9-16,7% 1,0 11,8% 2,0% 1,4% 5F4 BU 153,0 53,7 2,7 0,33% 25,9% 2,8 0,4-8,3% 0,8 13% 1,2% - INSURANCES FUNDS Mkcap () mn Last Price 1D Δ YTD P/E mn Price 1D YTD P/E P/Bv P/GPW TE/TA Com. ratio ROE ROA ZVTG SV 511,5 88,8 22,5-0,31% -4,3% 5,8 0,7 0,6 0,2 0,9 12,9% 2,6% 11,1% POSR SV 230,2 33,4 13,4 0,00% 4,3% 6,6 0,8 0,5 0,2 0,9 12% 2,2% 4,9% CROSRA ZA 661,4 73,9 317,0 3,58% -0,3% 9,0 7,4 0,3 1,1 3,1 3,9% 13,3% 0,0% Mkcap () mn Price 1D YTD P/E NAV Discount to NAV FP RO 1897, ,2 0,8 0,00% 5,0% 6,0 1,1 0,3 0,3 28,2% 6,3% P/Bv NPL ratio TE/TA L/D ROE Avg. 1Y Dsc. to NAV ROA Sortino 5

6 CROATIA SLOVENIA ROMANIA BULGARIA FIMA Daily Insight INSTITUTIONAL SALES AND TRADING DESK CONTACTS: IRENA IVANKOVIĆ DARKO HORVAT TRADING DEPARTMENT: DISCLAIMER FIMA Daily Insight is a publication issued by FIMA Securities Ltd. It discusses general market activity, industry or sector trends, or other broad-based economic, market or political conditions. It is provided for general informational purposes only and should not be relied on for any other purpose. It is not, and it is not intended to be, research, a recommendation or investment advice, as it does not constitute substantive research or analysis, not an offer to sell or the solicitation of offers to buy any FIMA Securities product or service. It does not take into account the particular investment objectives, restrictions, tax and financial situation or other needs of any specific client or potential client. In addition, the information is not intended to provide sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision. This publication uses publicly available records published by the selected relevant sources and public information services (Zagreb Stock Exchange, Bloomberg, Reuters, publicly available financial reports of the Issuer, publicly available opinions of representatives of the Issuers etc.). Although we believe that the stated information and other records are reliable, we do not guarantee for their accuracy, completeness or timeliness. The opinions and information herein are current only as of the date appearing on the cover. FIMA Securities has no obligation to provide any updates or changes to such opinions and information. By publishing this FIMA Securities Ltd. does not bear any responsibility for the consequences, or for the possible damages resulted from usage of the information and records published in this publication. Single opinions stated in this publication may change without prior notice. The opinions expressed in this publication are those of various authors, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of FIMA Securities or its affiliates. Past performance is not indicative of future results, which may vary significantly. The value of investments and the income derived from investments can go down as well as up. Future returns are not guaranteed, and a loss of principal may occur. The information and statements provided herein do not provide any assurance or guarantee as to returns that may be realised from investments in any security or other assets. This material does not purport to contain all of the information that an interested party may desire and, in fact, provides only a limited view of a particular market. Should you need more information about risks connected to investing in securities please see General Operating Conditions at This publication has not been prepared in compliance with the provisions of the Capital Market Act, and the Regulations of the Croatian Agency for Supervision of Financial Services (HANFA) ensuring independence of investment research, as also the issuance of the publication has not been subject to trading ban prior to distribution, as it has usually been foreseen for investment researches. According to the previously stated regulations this publication is considered to be promotional communication. All significant sources of information used in preparing of this publication were stated in its text. The seat of the Company FIMA Securities Ltd. is in Varaždin, Vrazova 25, whereas the operating of the Company has been supervised by the Croatian Agency for Supervision of Financial Services. The company was entered into the Court Register of the Commercial Court in Varaždin under the number: Protection of copyright and database records exist in this Document, and the same must not be reproduced, distributed or published by anyone regardless the intention, without previous express consent of the Company FIMA Securities Ltd. Please state the source in case of citing. All rights reserved. FIMA Daily Insight is prepared by the employees of FIMA Securities Ltd. The first issue of FIMA Daily Insight was published on 16TH January Additional information is available upon request. 6