Telecom NZ. Investor Presentation. Theresa Gattung, CEO Marko Bogoievski, CFO. March 2005

Transcription

1 Telecom NZ Investor Presentation Theresa Gattung, CEO Marko Bogoievski, CFO March 2005

2 Telecom New Zealand a Trans-Tasman services organization 2 Market Cap NZ $12.5B, US $9B Listed on NZX, ASX, NYSE (ADR s) NEW ZEALAND Integrated service provider Revenue NZ$3.9B, Employees 6,368, 1.8m Access lines Tactical and strategic imperatives: Attaining 50% share of mobile market revenue growth Stabilizing Calling & Access Accelerating Broadband uptake Grow & develop ICT capability AUSTRALIA Medium Enterprise Focused Business Revenue NZ$1.5B, Employees 1,861, 670,000 customers Consumer Business Simple, capped, straight-up offers that customers understand offering real value IP based solutions to the middle market

3 GROUP RESULT 1H H 05 1H 04 Change $M $M % REVENUE 2,797 2, % EXPENSES 1,677 1, % EBITDA 1,120 1, % DEPRECIATION % AMORTISATION % EBIT % NET INTEREST EXPENSE % INCOME TAX EXPENSE % MINORITIES % NPAT % EPS % EBITDA MARGIN 40.0% 42.8%

4 GROUP ADJUSTED * RESULT 1H H 05 1H 04 Change $M $M % REVENUE 2,782 2, % EXPENSES 1,677 1, % EBITDA 1,105 1, % DEPRECIATION % AMORTISATION % EBIT % NET INTEREST EXPENSE % INCOME TAX EXPENSE % MINORITIES % NPAT % EPS % EBITDA MARGIN 39.7% 42.2% * Adjusted for: Q1 05 $10m gain on sale of Telecom Business stores (non taxable), Q2 05 $5m gain on buyback of 50% of the $300m convertible notes (non taxable), Q2 04 $28m gain on sale of Sky TV shares (non taxable)

5 GROUP RESULT 1H 05 - KEY POINTS 5 Pleasing revenue performance with revenues +5.1% on the PCP EBITDA performance reflects focused front loaded investment in key areas, all of which are demonstrating strong momentum: Broadband record connections in the December quarter well on track to meet 250k residential target by Dec 05 (around 20% penetration) Mobile strongest quarter in several years, T3G (EVDO mobile broadband) successfully launched, on track to achieve 50% share of market growth in mobile revenues ICT solutions business - continuing strong demand for services. Gen-i and Computerland acquisitions have helped create a compelling market position & capability in ICT, Gen-i merger largely complete Margin contraction as expected due to new business mix (ICT) and upfront investment in broadband and mobile growth opportunities Adjusted NPAT growth (+11.6% on PCP) reflects benefit of continued de-leveraging

6 NZ OPERATIONS - REVENUE 6 1H 05 Change $M % PCP Access % Calling % Interconnect % Mobile % Solutions % Data % Internet % Directories % Other % Internal % Total 2, % Movement NZ$M 115 Adjusted 2 2, % 1 = Includes Probe revenue of $11m. 2 = Excludes gen-i & Computerland revenue of $115m = Revenue relating to gen-i and Computerland acquisitions

7 NZ OPERATIONS - EXPENSES 7 1H 05 Change $M % PCP Movement NZ$M Labour % Wireless COS % Wired COS % 6 International COS % -2 Solutions COS % Direct Costs % -5 Computer Costs % 1 Advertising % 4 Accommodation % 4 Other % 7 Internal % 2 Total 1, % Adjusted % = Expenses relating to gen-i and Computerland acquisitions 1 = Excludes gen-i & Computerland expenses of $112m

8 NZ Operations - Broadband 8 Record quarterly connection growth continued for Q2 05: +41k residential, +5k business Total Jetstream connections now 185k; 46k business & 139k residential 250 Residential Broadband % New range of plans launched in Sept (faster speeds, flat rates) combined with free connection and free modem offer have driven unprecedented uptake Connections (000) Jun-03 Sep-03 Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec-04 Mar-05 Jun-05 Sep-05 Dec-05 15% 10% 5% 0% Penetration Price-points have been maintained, ARPU reflects changing mix Value added services delivered include new services, online DVD, and repositioned XtraMSN portal with rich broadband content Connections Penetration

9 NZ Operations Access & Calling 9 Access Lines (000) 1,450 1,425 1,400 1,375 1,350 1,421 Q1 04 Residential Access Lines 1,425 1,425 1,415 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 1,424 Q1 05 1,413 Q2 05 Integrated Consumer packages launched in August continue to see good uptake: Align pricing in major metro areas; Auckland, Wellington & Christchurch Integrated offers - incentivise customers to purchase multiple products Remove distinction between peak & offpeak rates Differentiate on-net and off-net for F2M Provide value and price certainty 350 Business Access Lines Broadband & Integrated offers are critical for managing churn and retaining customers Access Lines (000) Q Q Q Q Q Q2 05 Business Access lines remain stable Retail Wholesale

10 NZ Operations - Mobile 10 On track to achieve 50% share of market revenue growth: Double digit cellular revenue growth (+14.8% 1H05) Strong growth in data revenue (+128.6% 1H 05) Growth in Customer base; 1.463m (+12% YOY) Improving ARPU, reduced Churn Acceleration of TDMA to CDMA migration Significant program of market initiatives: 1,500 Launch of $10 TXT Customers (000) 1, Retail Presence extended Coverage increased Sprint relationship - driving handset range - 1H 04 1H 05 Pricing initiatives TDMA CDMA

11 NZ Operations - Mobile (cont d) 11 Successful launch of Telecoms 3G mobile services in Nov 04 (1XRTT to EV-DO upgrade) T3G services will be a critical driver of future revenue growth: Mobile Broadband Text, Photo & Video messaging Video streaming Unified Voice messaging (fixed & wireless) Xtra over Mobile Push to Talk (PTT) Location based services Infotainment content Average Speed Bringing benefits of fixed & wireless to specific customer segments by leveraging partnerships; CDMA 1X kbps UMTS Rel kbps EVDO Around 500 kbps Hutchison 3G, SKY, Sprint, Microsoft, Alcatel

12 NZ Competitive & Regulatory Environment 12 Competitive TelstraClear (Fixed Line) ability to wholesale residential access will increase competitive intensity, especially in Auckland Myriad of ISP and Calling card operators Mobile Vodafone increasingly visible in business market, 3G launch 1H05 Broadband - Telecoms wholesale DSL products will help drive penetration Regulatory Major decisions in FY 04 provide certainty: Interconnect, Wholesale ( Business & Residential), TSO &Local Loop Unbundling (LLU) Wholesale DSL & data links now commercially available F2M enquiry underway, draft report 1H 05 Number Portability under review

13 Australia % Maintaining operational performance (revenue, EBITDA, free cash) AU$M % 10% 10% Continuing to build sales and marketing capability 300 1H 04 1H 05 Revenue Expense EBITDA Margin 5% Focused on: Reducing complexity, organising around customers AU$M H 04 1H 05 Customer acquisition & retention Margin management Systems and processes Reinvigorating the AAPT brand AAPT stands for: Smart, Irreverent, Energetic, Genuine = straight up EBITDA Capex

14 Australia Consumer & Business Consumer Focus remains on full service offerings leading with fixed and internet, completing with mobile and Pay-TV Steady growth in fixed line customer base to 491k (450k in PCP) Bundled customers now represent 18.4% of base (12.4% in Fy 04) Revenues stable (mix changing) margins improving Business Segment focused products & marketing progressing with hosted VOIP to SME Growth in Value Added Services (VAS), assisted by Trans-Tasman Product Set, CBA retention, TPAM s loss Stable revenue reflects competitive intensity - volume growth offset by price decline Margin improvement due to better wholesale pricing and more on-net traffic 14

15 Group Capital Expenditure 15 14% NZ $M % 12% 11% Capex / Sales Ratio NZ Wired: FY 04 FY 05 Product Development Capability Development Growth Maintenance FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 10% Total NZ Wired NZ Wired NZ Wireless Australia International/Corp Increased spend in NZ; NGN all-ip network, support systems and applications Wireless spend incorporates CDMA/1X upgrade to EV-DO ($40m) T3G Australian spend focused on business market product development International capacity purchase commitments tapering off FY 05 guidance increased from $650m to $700m FY 06 update will be provided at Q3 05 result briefing (May 05)

16 Capital Management 16 Operating Cashflow % 2, % 90% NZ$M 1,500 1, ,351 1,566 1, NZ CPS % 50% 70% 80% 70% 60% 50% - FY 02 FY 03 FY 04 FY 05 - Q1 04 Q2 04 Q3 04 Q4 04 Q1 05 Q % Actual Analyst Consensus Forecast (2H 05) DPS Targeted Payout Minimum Payout NZ$M 6,000 4,000 2,000-5,300 4,694 3,756 3,725 Jun-02 Jun- 03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Net Debt Gross Debt / EBITDA Gross Debt / EBITDA (x) Focus on active capital management Revised Dividend Policy - targeted payout of 85% of NPAT for FY 05 A Rating - appropriate gearing level FY 05 outlook for operating cashflow consistent with EBITDA performance Debt reduction in FY 04 assisted by SKY TV sale ($157m) & INL capital repayment ($41m)

17 Summary 17 Attractive investment fundamentals: Net Yield 1 6.2% Normalised PE Multiple x Strong operating cashflow underpins capital management initiatives Significant upfront investment in Broadband, Mobility & ICT as Telecom repositions for the future Emphasis on simplicity & completeness for delivering integrated broadband & IP customer offerings Investing heavily in new network and IT capability Further focus on structural cost reduction Australia committed to becoming a medium enterprise IP business 1 = Based on current analyst forecast consensus NPAT of $821m for FY 05, shares on issue of 1.948B, share price of $6.30, amortisation of $72m

18 Disclaimer 18 This presentation contains not only a review of operations, but also some forward looking statements about TCNZ and the environment in which the company operates. Because these statements are forward looking, TCNZ s actual results could differ materially. The second quarter media release, management commentary and various documents filed with the US Securities & Exchange Commission, including the Annual Report on Form 20-F, contain additional information about matters which could cause TCNZ s performance to differ from any forward looking statements in this presentation. Please read this presentation in the wider context of material previously published by TCNZ and filed with the SEC.

19 Telecom NZ Investor Presentation Theresa Gattung, CEO Marko Bogoievski, CFO March 2005