Container Corporation of India

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1 1QFY2011 Result Update Logistics July 20, 20 Container Corporation of India Performance Highlights Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY2011 1QFY20 % yoy 4QFY20 % qoq Net sales (3.6) EBITDA (0.4) OPM margin (%) (35bp) bp PAT (3.7) Container Corporation of India s (Concor) 1QFY2011 results were below our expectations, as lower lead distances and terminal charges pulled down its Exim performance. Further, the company was unable to pass on the entire hike of haulage charges to shipping lines. Modest Exim volume growth of 7.8% despite robust growth at major ports in 1QFY2011 indicates that the company is losing its market share to private players. Management has guided that the new railway policies will benefit Concor from FY2012E. We maintain our Reduce rating on stock. Exim performance drags down performance: Concor reported 0.9% yoy revenue growth to Rs916cr, against our estimate of Rs977cr. The company s Exim revenue fell by 0.6% yoy to Rs720cr due to lower lead distances impacting realisations and lower ground rent impacting terminal revenue. Domestic revenue grew 6.9% yoy to Rs196cr. We were positively surprised by overall EBITDA margin, which came in at 27.0% and was much above our estimate (25.5%). Margin of the Exim business grew 51bp yoy and 548bp qoq to 27.6% in 1QFY2011. However, margin of the domestic segment fell by 319bp yoy and 249bp qoq to 13.6%. Other income declined by 13.0% yoy to Rs36cr as the company s investments continued to yield low return of ~6%. Consequently, PAT declined by 3.7% yoy to Rs193.5cr, which was in line with our estimate (Rs197cr). Outlook and Valuation: We estimate Concor to post muted earnings CAGR of 9.9% over FY20 12E (vs. 17.6% CAGR over FY ). We maintain our EPS estimate of 64.8 and 72.4 in FY2011E and FY2012E, respectively. At the CMP, the stock is trading at 19.5x FY2012E earnings, which is at the higher end of its historical P/E band, and at 13.6x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We maintain Reduce on Concor with a target price of Rs1,194. Key Financials (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY2009 FY20 FY2011E FY2012E Net sales 3,452 3,702 4,067 4,607 % chg Net profit % chg 6.1 (0.1) EBITDA margin (%) FDEPS (Rs) P/E (x) P/BV (x) RoE (%) RoCE (%) EV/sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) REDUCE CMP Rs1,412 Target Price Rs1,194 Investment Period 12 Months Stock Info Sector Logistics Market Cap (Rs cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low 18, ,500/935 Avg. Daily Volume 14,321 Face Value (Rs) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code 17,928 5,386 CCRI.BO CCRI@IN Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters 63.1 MF / Banks / Indian Fls.1 FII / NRIs / OCBs 25.7 Indian Public / Others 1.1 Abs. (%) 3m 1yr 3yr Sensex Concor Param Desai Ext: 3 paramv.desai@angeltrade.com Mihir Salot Ext: 307 mihirr.salot@angeltrade.com Please refer to important disclosures at the end of this report 1

2 Exhibit 1: 1QFY2011 performance (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY % yoy 4QFY % qoq Net sales (3.6) Total expenditure (8.4) Operating profit (0.4) OPM (%) (35bp) bp Depreciation (3.4) Other income (13.0) 38 (6.2) Profit before tax (3.8) Tax (4.4) 49.1 Tax rate (%) (13bp) 22.2 (30bp) Reported PAT (3.7) PAT margin (%) (1bp) bp EPS (Rs) (3.7) Exhibit 2: 1QFY2011 Actual vs. Angel estimates Particulars (Rs cr) Estimates Actual Variation (%) Net sales (6.3) Operating profit (0.9) OPM (%) bp Reported PAT (1.8) Modest volume growth despite a low base In 1QFY2011, Concor s Exim volumes grew 7.8% yoy as against 16.9% and 12.2% growth at major ports and JNPT, respectively. Management has indicated that lower-than-industry volume growth is on account of transportation of higher number of loaded cargos and lesser empties. In our view, this could also be attributed to the company losing its market share to private players. We expect Concor to report % yoy growth in Exim volumes over FY20 12E. Domestic volumes grew by modest 6.0% yoy on account of slowdown in transportation of commodities such as pulses and sponge iron. We expect strong domestic volume growth in the ensuing quarters. July 20, 20 2

3 Exhibit 3: Quarterly volume growth trend (%) () (20) (30) (6.6) (5.6) (5.4) (8.8) (11.4) (6.9) (22.4) 1QFY09 3QFY09 1QFY 3QFY 1QFY11 Exim growth (yoy) Domestic growth (yoy) Update on new rail freight policies Indian Railways (IR) has recently launched two new schemes to invite private players for setting up private freight terminals (PFT) and special freight terminal operator (SFTO). As per the new policy, private companies can now transport bulk commodities (ex coal/iron-ore/oil) on the IR network. Both the policies are beneficial for Concor in the longer term. Initially Concor will start with the PFT policy by utilising its existing infrastructure. However, we do not expect the company to garner any revenue in FY2011E from the new policies. Exhibit 4: Segmental performance Y/E March (Rs cr) 1QFY11 1QFY %yoy 4QFY %qoq Revenue (3.6) Exim (0.6) 726 (0.8) Domestic (13.0) Volumes (mn TEU) 617, , ,115 (4.1) Exim 489, , ,681 (0.2) Domestic 127, , ,434 (16.4) EBIT (0.7) Exim Domestic (13.4) 36 (26.5) EBIT margin (%) (41bp) bp Exim bp bp Domestic (319bp) 16.1 (249bp) Realisation/TEU (Rs) 14,844 15,793 (6.0) 14, Exim 14,709 15,943 (7.7) 14,789 (0.5) Domestic 15,361 15, , July 20, 20 3

4 Exhibit 5: Quarterly revenue trend Exhibit 6: Quarterly EBITDA trend (Rs cr) 1, QFY 2QFY 3QFY 4QFY 1QFY11 Revenue (LHS) yoy change (RHS) (%) (Rs cr) QFY 2QFY 3QFY 4QFY 1QFY11 EBITDA (LHS) EBITDA margin (RHS) (%) Exhibit 7: Quarterly profitability trend 220 (0.5) 0 (Rs cr) (2.8) (3.7) (2) (4) (6) (%) 195 (8.6) (8.2) (8) 190 1QFY 2QFY 3QFY 4QFY 1QFY11 () PAT (LHS) yoy change (RHS) Exhibit 8: Peer valuation Company Reco. Mcap CMP TP Upside P/E (x) P/B (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) CAGR # (Rs cr) (Rs) (Rs) (%) FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E FY11E FY12E Sales PAT Allcargo* Neutral 2, Gateway Dist. Buy 1, Concor Reduce 18,434 1,4 1,194 (15.5) ; Note: * Calendar year closing; #CAGR over FY20 12E July 20, 20 4

5 Investment Rationale Margin pressure to persist Export volumes continue to remain subdued, in turn driving empty running. In 1QFY2011, the company recorded 268,000TEU imports as against 222,000TEU of exports, leading to 18.0% empty running. Going ahead, export growth rates may be further affected by the uncertain outlook in Europe. In FY20, OPM fell by 80bp yoy to 26.4% on account of a) lower ground rent revenue, b) the company s inability to pass on the entire hike in haulage charges and c) rebates all of which pulled down Exim performance. Management has indicated the OPM to remain range bound in FY2011E. However, we estimate a 0bp decline in OPM over the next two years on account of increased contribution from the lowmargin domestic business and inability to pass on the entire hike in haulage charges to shipping lines. Deteriorating Exim market share remains a concern Concor is in a commanding position, owing to its mammoth infrastructure 237 rakes and 60 terminals built over 20 years. The company plans to add another rakes and four terminals over FY20 12E. Currently, the company is the preferred rail container transporter among shipping lines, as it is the lowest-cost service provider in the segment and due to the strategic location of its container depots. However, during FY2006, Concor conceded its market share by 620bp to 27.4% from the peak of 33.7% to the road segment and private players. In FY2007, Concor was impacted by higher IR tariffs and opening up of rail containerisation to private players. Over the next four five years, we expect Concor to record further drop in market share to around 20% on the back of higher haulage charges, which would render it uncompetitive in the FEU segment, and the growing presence of private players. Exhibit 9: Declining Exim market share 8,000 7,000 6, ('000 TEUs) 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, (%) 0 FY03 FY04 FY05 FY06 FY07 Container traffic at major ports (LHS) FY08 FY09 FY 1QFY11 Concor market share (RHS) July 20, 20 5

6 Expensive valuations Concor is gradually losing its pricing power in the Exim segment, which could be further threatened with increasing number of rail-linked ICDs from private players. However, we remain bullish on the container sector in the long term, which is the core driver of Concor's business. Nonetheless, higher IR tariffs and opening up of the container industry to the private players will impact the company s market share in the long run. We also believe the company s growth trajectory will be lower than its historical trend. Thus, the key risk to our recommendation will be Concor maintaining its market share and accelerated construction of the dedicated rail-freight corridor, which could lead the rail segment to garner market share from the road segment. We estimate Concor to post muted earnings CAGR of 9.9% over FY20 12E, as against the 17.6% CAGR registered during FY At the current market price, the stock is trading at 19.5x FY2012E earnings, which is at the higher end of its historical P/E band, and at 13.6x FY2012E EV/EBITDA. We maintain our Reduce rating on the stock with a target price of Rs1,194. Exhibit : Trading above its five-year P/E average Jun-05 Oct-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Oct-06 Feb-07 (X) Jun-07 Oct-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb- Jun- P/E 5 year average Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research Exhibit 11: Key assumptions Growth Rates (%) FY20 FY2011E FY2012E Remarks Exim Volume Global economy and competition will determine volume growth Realisations Ability to pass on hike in haulage charges will determine realisations Domestic Volume Lead by strong domestic consumption Realisations (1.4) (2.0) 3.0 July 20, 20 6

7 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY FY11E FY12E Gross sales 3,062 3,364 3,452 3,702 4,130 4,714 Less: Excise duty Net sales 3,062 3,364 3,452 3,702 4,130 4,714 Other operating income Total operating income 3,062 3,364 3,452 3,702 4,130 4,714 % chg Total expenditure 2,171 2,487 2,526 2,726 3,065 3,530 Terminal charges 2,033 2,320 2,286 2,462 2,755 3,158 Other expenses Personnel Other EBITDA ,066 1,183 % chg 29.1 (1.6) (% of net sales) Depreciation EBIT ,035 % chg 29.8 (3.7) (% of net sales) Interest Other income (% of PBT) Recurring PBT ,014 1,004 1,087 1,218 % chg (1.0) Extraordinary exp/(inc.) PBT (reported) ,014 1,004 1,087 1,218 Tax (% of PBT) PAT (reported) Tax adj. (prior period) (0.5) Minority interest Prior period items (0.4) (0.2) PAT after MI (reported) Adjusted PAT % chg (0.1) (% of net sales) Basic EPS (Rs) Fully diluted EPS (Rs) % chg (0.1) July 20, 20 7

8 Balance Sheet (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY FY11E FY12E Sources of Funds Equity share capital Preference capital Reserves & surplus 2,565 3,036 3,602 4,159 4,753 5,420 Shareholders funds 2,630 3,166 3,732 4,289 4,883 5,550 Minority interest Total loans Deferred tax liability Total liabilities 2,821 3,390 3,974 4,531 5,126 5,793 Application of funds Gross block 2,025 2,327 2,722 3,122 3,622 4,122 Less: Acc. Dep ,125 Net block 1,552 1,746 2,025 2,290 2,645 2,997 CWIP Goodwill Investments Current assets 1,384 1,900 2,159 2,456 2,684 3,046 Cash 1,078 1,523 1,767 1,873 2,426 2,360 Loans & adv Other Current liab. & prov Net current assets 916 1,351 1,536 1,827 2,067 2,382 Misc. exp. not w/off Total assets 2,821 3,390 3,974 4,531 5,126 5,793 July 20, 20 8

9 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Y/E March (Rs cr) FY07 FY08 FY09 FY FY11E FY12E Profit before tax ,014 1,004 1,087 1,214 Depreciation Change in working capital 73 (14) 39 (174) 301 (395) Less: Other adjustments (70) (136) (175) Direct taxes paid (225) (191) (204) (225) (244) (273) Cash flow from operation , (Inc)/Dec in fixed assets (234) (303) (388) (400) (500) (500) (Inc)/Dec in investments (2) (24) (48) (Inc)/Dec in loans & adv. (91) 85 (74) Other income Cash flow from investing (256) (2) (338) (400) (500) (500) Issue of equity Inc/(Dec) in loans (2) Dividend paid (Incl. tax) (141) (167) (205) (232) (235) (261) Others - (3) (4) Cash flow from financing (111) (150) (211) (232) (235) (261) Inc/(Dec) in Cash (66) Opening cash balances 691 1,078 1,523 1,767 1,873 2,426 Closing cash balances 1,078 1,523 1,767 1,873 2,426 2,360 July 20, 20 9

10 Key ratios Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09 FY FY11E FY12E Valuation ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV Dividend yield (%) EV/sales EV/EBITDA EV/total assets Per Share Data (Rs) EPS (Basic) EPS (fully diluted) Cash EPS DPS Book value DuPont Analysis EBIT margin Tax retention ratio Asset turnover (x) ROIC (Post-tax) Cost of debt (post tax) Leverage (x) Operating RoE Returns (%) ROCE (Pre-tax) Angel RoIC (Pre-tax) RoE Turnover ratios (x) Asset T/o (gross block) Inventory/sales (days) Receivables (days) Payables (days) WC cycle (ex-cash) (18) (18) (21) (14) (18) (13) Solvency ratios (x) Net debt to equity (0.4) (0.5) (0.5) (0.4) (0.5) (0.4) Net debt to EBITDA (1.2) (1.7) (1.9) (1.9) (2.2) (2.0) Int. coverage (EBIT/Int) NA NA NA July 20, 20

11 Research Team Tel: Website: DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to be true, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied on as such, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update on respective stocks for the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Concor 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock Yes 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock No 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below Rs 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors. Ratings (Returns) : Buy (> 15%) Accumulate (5% to 15%) Neutral (-5 to 5%) Reduce (-5% to 15%) Sell (< -15%) July 20, 20 11

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