FDI PROMOTION AND ARBITRATION Prof. Dr. Jordi Paniagua University of Valencia 13 Februray 2018
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1 FDI PROMOTION AND ARBITRATION Prof. Dr. Jordi Paniagua University of Valencia 13 Februray 2018
2 Motivation Teaser If FDI were a country...fdi would be a big one GDP (billions of $) 1 United States 18,036 2 China 11,065 3 Japan 4,383 4 Germany 3,363 5 United Kingdom 2,861 6 France 2,419 7 India 2,419 8 Italy 1,821 9 Brazil 1, Canada 1, Korea 1, Russia 1, Australia 1, Spain 1, Fiji 4.86 J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
3 Motivation Objectives Outline 1 Motivation Teaser Objectives 2 FDI in South Pacific How much What To whom From whom Why: Gravity Falls To whom: Defying Gravity 3 FDI promotion The Gravity Equation Tips 4 FDI and International Commercial Arbitration 5 Conclusions J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
4 Motivation Objectives Unblundlings Baldwin (2016) J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
5 FDI in South Pacific How much FDI (million USD) Jobs FDI (million USD) Jobs J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
6 FDI in South Pacific What Sector Hotels & Tourism 21% Financial Services 13% Metals 20% Coal, Oil and Natural Gas 14% Food & Tobacco 14% Electronic Components 0% Non Automotive Transport OEM 0% Pharmaceuticals 1% Textiles 1% Real Estate 1% Business Services 2% Software & IT services 2% Communications 6% Transportation 6% Financial Services 13% Coal, Oil and Natural Gas 14% Food & Tobacco 14% Metals 20% Hotels & Tourism 21% J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
7 FDI in South Pacific To whom FDI (million USD) Jobs Fiji Samoa Micronesia Solomon Polynesia Vanuatu FDI (million USD) Jobs J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
8 FDI in South Pacific To whom FDI (million USD) FDI in Fiji Jobs FDI (million USD) Jobs J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
9 FDI in South Pacific From whom Country of Origin United States 47% France 4% China 4% Papua New Guinea 5% Australia 23% United Arab Emirates 1% United Kingdom 1% Malaysia 1% New Zealand 2% Jamaica 2% Spain 3% Philippines 4% France 4% China 4% Papua New Guinea 5% Australia 23% United States 47% J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
10 FDI in South Pacific Why: Gravity Falls FDI (millon USD) AUS PHL PNG NZL CHN MYS KOR USA JAM THA LKAIND ARE ESP FRA GBR CHE Distance to South Pacific The size of the bubble represents GDP size. Countries in red ratified NY Convention J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
11 FDI in South Pacific To whom: Defying Gravity FDI (millon USD) Samoa Micronesia Solomon Islands Vanuatu Fiji French Polynesia Distance to South Pacific The size of the bubble represents GDP size. Countries in red ratified NY Convention J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
12 FDI promotion The Gravity Equation FDI Gravity The FDI gravity equation resembles the Newtonian gravitational equation: FDI i!j = GDP igdp j GDP {z world } frictionless FDI Institutions Distance i!j {z } FDI frictions FDI is proportional to economic mass of countries FDI is inversely proportional to distance between countries FDI is enhanced with institutional quality like policies (e.g., International Arbitration) J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
13 FDI promotion The Gravity Equation FDI Frictions FDI friction are those that impede international FDI flows Types of trade & FDI frictions: Natural: Geography & History & Culture & Language Man-made or institutional: additional costs impeding trade if physical distances (or other natural costs) were absent Mainly attributable to policy decisions. J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
14 FDI promotion The Gravity Equation Man-made (institutional) Frictions Policy Tax Policy (Desai et al., 2004) Tariff-jumping FDI (Blonigen, 2002) Economic integration Bilateral investment treaties (Falvey, Foster-McGregor 2018) Currency (Gil, Llorca & Paniagua, 2018) Social media (Paniagua et al., 2017) Institutional quality Legal rights (Paniagua & Sapena, 2014) Commercial arbitration (Myburgh & Paniagua, 2016) J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
15 FDI promotion Tips FDI Promotion Countries have four alternatives to escape the gravity pull and promote FDI 1 Get closer Reduce transaction costs: Common language, colonial links 2 Grow bigger Economic growth: Human capital, productivity 3 Be social 1 What happens in Fiji stays online! 4 Be smarter! 1 Economic integration Bilateral investment agreements 2 Legal framework 1 Arbitration, business environment J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
16 FDI and International Commercial Arbitration What is International Commercial Arbitration? J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
17 FDI and International Commercial Arbitration Model laws & arbitration & FDI FDI: Myburgh, A., & Paniagua, J. (2016). Does International Commercial Arbitration Promote Foreign Direct Investment?. The Journal of Law and Economics, 59(3), Mocheva, N., Myburgh, A., & Paniagua, J. (2018). The impact of UNCITRAL on FDI. Proceedings of the 50th Anniversary UNCITRAL Congress Trade: Berkowitz, D., Moenius, J., & Pistor, K. (2006). Trade, law, and product complexity. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 88(2), Gil-Pareja S., Llorca-Vivero, R. & Paniagua, J. (2018). Trade Law and Trade Flows. Mimeo, University of Valencia J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
18 FDI and International Commercial Arbitration International Commercial Arbitration & FDI Myburgh & Paniagua (JLE, 2016) 1 Arbitration brings countries together and affects FDI; 1 Intl. Commercial Arbitration reduces costs associated with domestic judicial systems; 2 Improvement in arbitration regimes has a larger effect on the size of FDI investments than new projects 1 Estimates show that FDI flows are 77% higher when both countries ratify the NY arbitration convention 3 The effect of arbitration is greater in higher FDI levels (larger investments) 1 FDI diversion for small and medium projects 2 FDI creation for large projects J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
19 FDI and International Commercial Arbitration J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
20 Conclusions Take-aways Gravity Falls Cherish Gravity Get closer Grow bigger Be social Be smarter Use international commercial arbitration! J. Paniagua (Uni Valencia) FDI Promotion and Arbitration Nadi - Fiji, / 20
21 Sectors UNCITRAL s initiatives Activity type Activity NY Convention Model Law on Arbitration Model Law on Concilliation Customer Complex High Fixed costs Business services + + Sales & Marketing + Customer care Tech support Shared services Headquarters Design + ICT + + RD Education Maintenance Extraction Manufacturing Logistics Construction + +
22 Costs of arbitration Myburgh & Paniagua (JLE, 2016) Arbitral Cost (USD) 0 200, , , , Arbitral Cost (percent of amount in dispute) Investment in dispute (million USD) Source: ICC arbitral cost calculator Arbitral Cost (USD) Cost (%)
23 Crossing borders with social media Paniagua, Korzynski & Mas-Tur (2017)
24 Quantile regression Myburgh & Paniagua (JLE, 2016) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Q(0.10) Q(0.25) Q(0.50) Q(0.75) Q(0.90) CY&CP FE CY&CP FE CY&CP FE CY&CP FE CY&CP FE ln(y it Y jt ) 0.378*** 0.417*** 0.457*** 0.500*** 0.563*** (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) FTA ijt * 0.013*** *** ** *** (0.02) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) BIT ijt *** *** *** 0.067*** 0.011** (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) NYC ijt 0.041*** 0.131*** 0.164*** 0.204*** 0.192*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.00) NYC1 ijt *** *** *** *** 0.043*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) Observations Average Project size (musd) Bootstrap standard errors in parentheses, Country pair, country*year (3 years) and year fixed effects included. Dep variable: ln(fdi+1) * p < 0.10, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01
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