Eskom 2018/19 Revenue Application

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1 Eskom 2018/19 Revenue Application Nersa Public Hearings 30 October 2017

2 Where we are coming from This revenue application is being made for the year 2018/19, after the Energy Regulator maintained its revenue decision made in 2013 for the 2017/18 year, where it approved total allowable revenue of R205 billion. The allowed revenue resulted in an average increase of 2.2% due to base adjustments made in preceding years following approved RCA balances for Eskom (12.69% for 2015/16 for MYPD2 and 9.4% for 2016/17 for first year of MYPD3). The 2.2% average increase resulted in consumers receiving an effective decrease in electricity prices, in a situation where costs to produce electricity are increasing. Eskom, in this revenue application for the 2018/19 year has applied the NERSA MYPD methodology of 2016, with a phasing-in of return on assets being applied Allowed revenue and price adjustments decisions will be applicable from 1 April 2018 This revenue application does not include any RCA applications for the MYPD 3 period. Eskom understands that NERSA will process RCAs for years 2, 3 and 4 of the MYPD 3 period at a later stage. The adjustments will be applicable from 1 April 2019 onwards in a phased manner 1

3 Eskom s revenue application is completed within the legislative and NERSA s regulatory framework Framework Electricity Pricing Policy (EPP) Electricity Regulation Act (ERA) Municipal Finance Management Act (MFMA) Multi-Year Price Determination (MYPD) Methodology Eskom Retail Tariff & Structural Adjustment (ERTSA) Methodology Requirements Provides guidelines to NERSA in approving prices and tariffs for the electricity supply industry Enable an efficient licensee to recover full cost of its licensed activities, including a reasonable margin Avoid undue discrimination between customer categories May permit cross subsidy of tariffs Only implement tariffs determined by NERSA Eskom consults with SALGA & National Treasury prior to submission to NERSA Municipal tariffs tabled in Parliament by 15 Mar for 1 July implementation Determines allowable revenue (AR) for efficient costs and fair return where AR = (RAB WACC)+E+PE+D+R&D+IDM±SQI+L&T±RCA RCA not included in this revenue application Allows for NERSA determined allowed revenue to be recovered by the assumed volume of sales for each year of the revenue period. Determines rate adjustments to tariffs applicable to customer groups and schedule of standard prices applicable to different Eskom tariffs Notes: Regulatory asset base (RAB); Primary energy (PE); Service Quality incentives (SQI); Expenditure (E); Levies & Taxes (L&T); Research & Development (R&D); Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC); Integrated Demand Management (IDM); Regulatory Clearing Account (RCA) 2

4 Electricity Regulation Act is basis of Eskom s revenue application In accordance with the Electricity Regulation Act (ERA) Nersa must: Enable an efficient licensee to recover the full cost of its licensed activities, including a reasonable margin or return; Eskom has applied for a revenue that corresponds to efficient costs related to it s licensed activities and a phased return that migrates towards a reasonable return The phasing-in of the return is in accordance with the previous Nersa decisions This link between the legislative requirement to Eskom s revenue application is the Multi-Year Price Determination (MYPD) methodology 3

5 The MYPD methodology through the allowable revenue formula was applied AR= (RAB WACC)+E+PE+D+R&D+IDM±SQI+L&T±RCA Primary Energy (incl imports and DMP) IPPs Operating expenditure (incl R &D) Integrated Demand Management Depreciation Return on Assets Tax & Levies Revenue = Return on assets = % cost of capital allowed X depreciated replacement asset value 4

6 Based on the MYPD Methodology the total allowable revenue is R219.5 billion for FY2018/19 Allowable Revenue (AR) Fx Application FY2018/19 (R m) Regulated Asset Base WACC (%) Returns RAB ROA % Absolute Revenue increase of R14.3 bn (7%) from previous Nersa decision Expenditure Primary energy IPPs (local) E PE PE Standard tariff customers contribute to 3.6% increase in allowed revenue International purchases Depreciation IDM Research & development Levies and taxes RCA PE D I R&D L&T RCA Export and NPA revenues account for 3.4% increase in allowed revenue About 15% of allowed revenue related to IPP costs Total Allowable Revenue

7 Rand billions Application of the NERSA Allowable Revenue formula indicates a revenue growth of R14.3 billion R13.2b R1.0b R2.8b R0b R11.2b -R12b -R1.8b R219.5 R205.2b Revenue requirement grows by R14.3 bn MYPD3 Revenue 2017/18 IPPs Operating Cost Primary Energy International Purchases Depreciation Returns Evironmental levy Total Allowable Revenue 2018/19 Increases in allowed revenue when compared to MYPD 3 (2017/18) decision mainly due to: Increases in IPP costs due to additional IPP programmes; marginal increase in other PE costs Increases in operating costs (compared to previous MYPD decision close to inflation increases for actuals Change in MYPD methodology in treatment of cost of imports (with concomitant increase in import revenue) Decrease in allowed revenue when compared to MYPD 3(2017/18) decision mainly due to : Further sacrifice in return on assets Decrease in environmental levy due to lower energy sent out 6

8 The Eskom Sales Forecasting approach A six year monthly forecast is compiled supported with another 4 years into future on annual basis using trends per sector Forecast for top customer segments (consuming greater than 100 GWh per annum are individually analysed considering customer insights, market conditions, usage patterns and long term plans Bottom-up approach (regional inputs) is applied together with Pareto principle to determine the forecast for rest of other customer base customers (including municipalities that make up 80% of the sales per category are forecasted on an individual bases. Start Get sign-off and approvals Post approvals, continuous review and update forecasted sales quarterly 1 2 Compile budget for all customers types Review, approval & sign-off of sales forecast 5 Conduct one-on one vetting session Consolidated International & South Africa sales 4 3 Obtain Internatioanal sales forecast A rigorous and robust scrutinising session is conducted with all Eskom Regions and key industrial forecasters to ensure consistency and validity ensure alignments All scrutinised regional and top customers sales forecast are consolidated to form the South Africa local sales forecast International sales forecast is determined following a similar process The South Africa and the international sales are consolidated to create the Total Eskom sales forecast. The bottom up is compared to top down forecast to ensure integrity

9 Key assumptions utilised for sales forecasting GDP assumptions derived from average of 4 different sources at the time treasury forecast, International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecast; National Treasury and Investec) (Eskom GDP forecast 3.3% 2.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2% GDP Eskom Treasury 3.3% 2.2% 2.5% 1.7% 1.3% 0.3% 0.7% 1.7% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% Commodity prices: assumptions are primarily for aluminum, gold, platinum, steel and ferrochrome that influence mining and industrial customers electricity use low to moderate growth expected. Price elasticity: a higher than inflation price increase and future sales will be impacted. A substantial amount of furnace load will not be utilised in winter because of the high winter prices customers are doing plant maintenance during this period. All new budget quote accepted projects (high probability of realisation) included. Average weather conditions applied in the forecast Co-generation customers included where applicable. No tariff restructuring was taken into account in the budget. Historic trend showing decline in consumption with no upswing yet 8

10 Declining sales trend over MYPD 3 period indicates requirements to rebase sales (technical correction) MYPD3 Sales Decision Realistic Forecast 9

11 Eskom sales declining due to a combination of reasons Although still on par with average international electricity prices, Eskom lost competitive electricity price advantage (previously lowest cost producer) with recent high price increases With the Eskom load shedding there was huge pressure on customers to increase electricity efficiency; together with load reduction programmes - leading to a decrease in reliance on Eskom electricity and permanently lost sales (also co-generation) World economic markets lead to a drop in commodity prices and hence markets for products for large users - closure of industrial & manufacturing customers; or plants/shafts Energy intensive users are mostly global companies who decide on utilisation of plants from a global perspective rather using plants with the lowest production unit cost in countries with the least uncertainty (total package and not only electricity prices) all plant capacities not fully utilized consideration given to a combination of various aspects of business value chain including skills, labour stability and costs, transport, infrastructure, etc need to compete with countries where Government provides support in the form of incentives Low investor confidence in South Africa due to political instability, policy certainty, Government support, ease of doing business and risk management SA as a country has internationally lost competitiveness 10

12 The sales summary depicts stagnant growth in electricity demand for Eskom 2016/17 Actuals 2017/18 Projection 2018/19 Application Standard tariff sales Negotiated pricing agreements Export sales Total sales Year-on-year growth (GWh) Year-on-year growth (%) -0.26% -0.06% 0.81% -0,06% +0.81% Export sales Negotiated pricing agreements Standard tariff sales 11

13 In order to increase sales volumes Eskom has implemented a local demand stimulation strategy 12

14 Electricity price impact in 2018/19 Standard tariff revenue has increased by R7 251 million which equates to revenue increase of 3.6% from NERSA s decision for the 2017/18 year. As the revenue is recouped from a lower sales volume, the overall price increase required is 19.9% for 2018/19. The 19.9% average increase translates to a 1 July 2018 local-authority tariff increase of 27.5% to municipalities. Municipalities continue to pay at the 2017/18 rates for the period 1 April 2018 to 30 June This is due to the Municipal Finance Management Act (MFMA) requiring Municipal tariff changes to be made only from 1 July each year. Standard tariff Unit 2017/ /19 Standard tariff revenue R m Standard tariff sales volumes Standard tariff price GWh c/kwh Standard tariff price adjustment % 2.2% % 13

15 Price Impact % Factors influencing the overall price increase 7.0% 0.5% 23.8% -6.0% 5.5% 1.4% 16.3% 2.1% 19.9% 9.4% Adjustments Operating costs Depr, Returns, SPAs & Exports Sales volumes rebasing IPPs International Purchases Price before operating costs changes Opex Generation own PE costs Price after operating costs Depr & Returns SPAs & Exports Overall Price Increase With average 2.2% increase in 2017/18 and 19.9% proposed average increase in 2018/19 Average for two years is 11% 14

16 Even with a 0% increase in Allowable Revenue - rebasing of sales from MYPD 3 results in a 9.4% price increase Decision vs actual standard tariff sales Rebasing of sales volumes (R m) GWh MYPD 3 Sales Decision Act/Proj Std Tariff sales 2013/ / / / /18 Standard tariff revenue as at FY18 Savings on PE due to lower sales Revised standard tariff for FY Standard tariff volumes (GWh) Standard tariff ave electricity price (revenue/sales volumes - c/kwh) Price adj for rebasing sales volumes 2017/ /19 The ERTSA methodology does not adjust for volume changes during a MYPD cycle It is only at the next cycle that adjustments can be made Thus the sales volume gap of about 30TWh would need to be implemented in the 2018/19 decision Assuming the same allowed revenue in 2018/19 as was for 2017/18; recovered over lower volume (of 30TWh) results in 9.4% price increase (after primary energy savings) will not be extreme next time MYPD methodology requires recovery of allowed revenue (consisting of fixed and variable costs) through assumed sales volume If sales volume drop the related fixed costs are not recovered (primary energy costs are saved) The converse is true if the sales volume is higher than assumed Sunk and fixed costs cannot be concomitantly contracted is nature of electricity industry % 15

17 R m Primary energy costs reflects CAGR 8.5% p.a. but the position improves when local IPPs are excluded AR= (RAB WACC)+E+PE+D+R&D+IDM±SQI+L&T±RCA Between 2013/14 to 2018/19, primary energy costs escalate with CAGR of 1.5% p.a. Primary energy costs peaked during FY2015 & FY2016 when OCGTs were utilised to minimise load shedding IPPs played vital role during supply challenges however under the current environment the growth in IPPs are displacing Eskom power stations Total primary energy costs reflects CAGR of 8.7% p.a. once local IPPs are incorporated IPPs Gx Primary Energy +8.7% 1.5% 2012/ / / / / / /19 16

18 R m Operating Costs increase by average of 7.3% over the period AR= (RAB WACC)+E+PE+D+R&D+IDM±SQI+L&T±RCA Employee benefits- CAGR of 4.9% p.a. from 2013/14 to 2018/19 on back of a declining staff complement O&M costs escalate by CAGR of 7.3% after normalising for once off transactions 2019 Opex Employee benefit of R28.3bn (46%); Maintenance of R17.7bn (29%); Other opex of R15.8bn (25%) Operations & Maintenance Employee benefits 7.3% 4.9% 2012/ / / / / / /19 17

19 Conservative assumption have been used for RAB, migration of ROA towards WACC, and depreciation AR= (RAB WACC)+E+PE+D+R&D+IDM±SQI+L&T±RCA Regulatory Asset Base (R m) Return on Assets (R m) Depreciation (R m) Assets Ave RAB Generation Working capital & WUC Return on Assets (ROA) 8.4% Transmission Eskom RAB Returns Distribution Generation Phased in ROA 2.97% Total Depreciation Transmission Phased in Returns Distribution Returns sacrificed Opening RAB balance for FY2019 is based on the MYPD 3 decision which is then adjusted for the latest capital expenditure forecasts for the period FY2014 to FY2018. Eskom will revalue the RAB for subsequent revenue application in accordance with Nersa condonation decision MYPD methodology allows for ROA as proxy for interest costs, tax and equity return to the shareholder In accordance with Nersa decision migration of ROA towards full WACC is phased over a longer period. NERSA MYPD 3 decision of 4,7% for FY2017/18 is reduced to 2.97% for FY2018/19 revenue application. In accordance with the MYPD methodology, depreciation is computed by dividing RAB over remaining life of respective assets. Therefore depreciation amounts have remained relatively similar to 2017/18 as a similar RAB value is used for the FY2018/19 revenue application 18

20 In conclusion, Eskom will supply electricity which comes at a cost that needs be recovered Eskom has delivered R47billion of savings over the first 4 years of MYPD3 We have continuously been striving to improve operations, commission new capacity as soon as possible and aim to extract cost efficiencies over the period Our business contains a substantial element of fixed costs that are not easily reduced in the short term. This will require a balance of socio economic factors which must be considered before making a final decision Eskom s debt commitments have increased significantly over the last few years with a major portion that has been guaranteed by Government. Our debt maturities reflect a step change in the near term that requires a strong balance sheet to cover these commitments Eskom, believes that this revenue application has taking these factors into account in aiming to keep cost escalations close to inflation and phasing in of returns to mitigate impact on the customer 19

21 Thank you

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