The Influence of Chinese Trade Policies on Automobile Assembly and Parts. Deborah L. Swenson University of California, Davis

Transcription

1 The Influence of Chinese Trade Policies on Automobile Assembly and Parts Deborah L. Swenson University of California, Davis

2 China s 2010 Sales and Production Production [January-September 2010] 13,082,700 Total Vehicles 9,880,300 Passenger Cars 3,202,400 Commercial Vehicles Sales [January-September 2010] 13,138,400 Total Vehicles 9,897,500 Passenger Cars 3,240,400 Commercial Vehicles

3 Why Trade as a lens on Chinese developments? Extensive range of assemblers and parts suppliers precludes comprehensive analysis from the production side of trends in capability. Gain insight into government policy objectives which are shaping and influencing Chinese industry and opportunities. Assess how policy affects firm opportunities.

4 Talk Plan Overview of Developments in Chinese Auto Industry Production/Sales/Players Policy WTO dispute case: Auto Parts Imports Developments in Chinese Exports Conclusions

5 From Tang, Nov 16, 2009 CRS Report R40924.

6 Sales of Selected Manufacturers in China with Market Shares, [Tang, Nov 16, 2009 CRS Report R40924]

7 [Tang, Nov 16, 2009 CRS Report R40924]

8 FTAs WTO Rules Tariffs Quotas TRADE & FDI Export Zones Dispute Mechanisms Elements of Trade and Investment Policy Ownership Limits Currency

9 M&A Stimulus 2009 FTAs Export Zones Dispute Mechanisms Trade- Related Domestic Policies Local Policies TRADE & FDI Currency IPR Tariffs Quotas WTO Rules Ownership Limits

10 Early Chinese Auto Trade and Investment Policies Steep barriers to import of Autos Auto Tariffs 100% Quotas 1994 Policy and Investment Entry through joint ventures with local partners Ownership < 50% Expectations prior to 2001 WTO accession. Auto tariffs to decline from 100% to 25%. Auto parts tariffs to decline to ~ 09.4%. China not to create new policies against KD or SKD vehicles.

11 Early Chinese Auto Trade and Investment Policies General Expectations prior to 2001 WTO accession. TRIMS Government Procurement

12 Revised Chinese Foreign Investment Policies discontinue encouraged category for certain car parts in the catalogue. new additions to the encouraged list include development and research regarding entire cars and car engines, the manufacture of certain car parts and the electronic assembly and manufacturing of cars Export-oriented foreign firms in zones allowed to exceed 50% ownership share. New Investment minimum (2bill Yuan), with proviso that 500 million Yuan be dedicated to research and product development.

13 Auto Export Zones Eight cities designated in August 2006 Shanghai Tianjin Chongqing Changchun Wuhan Xiamen Wuhu Taizhou Stated goal: Expanding the export of vehicles and spare parts, especially our own brands and those with our own intellectual property rights, is the only way to enhance our auto industry s international competitiveness. {Commerce Minister - Bo Xilai}

14 ASEAN-China FTA Signed 2010 Silent on automobiles Concerns of ASEAN members about own industries Prominence of Japanese firms in South East Asia

15 Trade Disputes U.S launches inquiry into Chinese exports of tires to the U.S. at the behest of Titan Tire Company. Following determination of dumping and material harm, U.S. levies anti-dumping duties on imports of Chinese tires September China launches anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on U.S. exports of chicken and automotive products.two day later. April 2009, group of firms and labor launch China safeguard investigation into Chinese tires. Safeguard tariff placed, September 2009.

16 WTO Dispute Case Chinese 2004/5 Tariff changes Auto parts tariff rates available to auto assemblers, ONLY if 60% of vehicle content sourced in China. Failure to meet 60% threshold increases tariff rate from ~10% to 25% charged for automobiles. New rules viewed as violations of accession agreements and WTO rules.

17 WTO Dispute Case After failure to negotiate an agreement on China s new policies, the U.S., EU, and Canada launch dispute cases. (Argentina, Mexico, Brazil, Australia, Japan, Thailand & Chinese Taipei as 3 rd parties) Panel formed in China loses case in (prelim: Feb, full: September) China plans appeal January 2009 meeting February 2009: China agrees to reform regulations September 2009: China returns tariffs to previous levels.

18 WTO Dispute Case Who Won? Starting Question: Did China s tariffs achieve a reduction in the importation of car parts by foreign firms?

19

20 Chinese Auto Part Imports,

21 Chinese Auto Part and Vehicle Transactions,

22

23 Contrary to Prediction -- No Apparent Trend, by country, in foreign firm share of Chinese aggregate auto part imports

24 WTO Case Results Econometric evidence that for foreign and foreign- JV firms China s trade policy was associated with declines in: 1) volume of parts imports by firm and 2) import price However, decline in importance of imports by foreign firms is not apparent in the aggregate data. Further, this is not because the sales volume of domestic firms is declining.

25 WTO Case Results Why contrasting micro and macro evidence? One Answer: Short-term/Long-term strategies SR continue parts imports, pay tariff penalty LR ongoing relocation by parts suppliers Potential for enduring effects of short-lived policy.

26 Additional Factors Influencing Parts Market < 50% Ownership requirement applies to auto assembly, but NOT to auto parts production Chinese parts makers improving quality, and in some cases seeking to acquire technology overseas Sheer scale of Chinese local market makes Chinese market a viable sourcing location

27 Chinese Exports of Parts and Vehicles year PartsExport VehicleExport

28 Global Exports by Private Chinese firms started small. Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2001 SOE FIE Other JV Private

29 but Private Chinese firms now represent a large share of Chinese global parts exports. Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2009 SOE FIE Other JV Private

30 Chinese Parts Exports to the United States Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2001 Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2009 SOE FIE Other JV Private SOE FIE Other JV Private

31 Chinese parts exports to Japan Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2004 Shares of Chinese Auto Part Exports, 2009 SOE FIE Other JV Private SOE FIE Other JV Private

32 Conclusions: The Influence of Chinese Policies on Automobile Assembly and Parts Context China emerging, and becoming a key consumer market. Financial crisis demand declines in rich/traditional locations. Dynamic market, with large SOEs (FAW, SAIC, Chang An, Dong Feng), Joint Ventures involving large MNCs (VW, GM.), and some large private (Chery, Geely), as well as a large fringe. Complex Dynamics Future Industry Shakeout (# of players/models) Clustering (shape of global production) Future Technology Path

33 Conclusions Government capacity to shape future industry direction. Unwavering interest in crafting policy to promote the growth of a vibrant Chinese automobile sector. Confluence of China s market advantages assist policy goal. Large (economy of scale) demand for small cars. Growth segment in emerging markets. On environmental dimension, differential taxes. Flexibility in accepting domestic private entrants. Effective in playing global companies off against each other due to value of domestic market.

34 Thanks!

35

36