Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior (The Case of the Karachi Stock Exchange) Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani * ABSTRACT

Transcription

1 South Asian Journal of Management Sciences Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior (The Case of the Karachi Stock Exchange) Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani * ABSTRACT Introduction The study of the investment decision process consists of economic perspectives derived from the relationship between the lifestyle, demographic variable and behavioral. Through this examination it has been analyzed that the behavioral variables and utility maximization are taken together for a complete study. This study incorporated this concept by taking 30 variables from diverse decision criteria including contemporary concerns. The findings suggest that an individual considers on the wealth maximization criteria on making their stock purchase. The study of Neumann and Morgenstern (1947) states that investors are completely consistent and deal with such choices that are, are risk-taking because they just want to increase their wealth.. According to utility theory individual investors select the portfolio that increases their expected utility measured in expected return while decreases the risks or losses. The study on economic theory does not cater to the investor s decisions. Instead it focuses on macroeconomic models that elaborate the mass market behavior (Nagy & Obenberger 1994). However, due to the lack of the information and their mathematical capacities, the investors are bounded to be rational, since except of the knowledge they store and experience they have is all limited. (Hoffmann, Eije, & Jager, 2006). Behavioral finance is a study which has enlightened the role of behavioral aspects of investment decisions. In behavioral finance, financial markets are analyzed using models which are less narrow than those given by Neumann and Morgenstern (1947). Behavioral finance focalizes on how investors translate and grabs the information to take investment decisions. It also examines the investor behavior which leads to various market abnormalities. It is a rapidly growing field which focuses on the behavior of financial practitioners psychology (Merikas, Andreas, George, & Prasad, 2004; Al-Tamimi, 2006). Many research studies have been conducted on the behavior and portfolio performance of institutional investors in the past (Venter, 2006; Prowse, 1990; Nagy & Obenberger, 1994; Baker & Haslem, 1974). Individual investors participate in the stock market by purchasing and selling different stocks and it is very important to identify various economic and behavioral motivations that affect their purchasing decisions. This study is an attempt to give insight into the behavior of individual investors i.e. which factors influence them to purchase stocks. * Corresponding author s athar.iqbal@yahoo.com * The material presented by the author does not necessarily portray the view point of the editors and the management of the Iqra University, Karachi. SAJMS 2009, Published by Iqra University Defence View, Shaheed-e-Millat Road (Ext.), Karachi, Pakistan.

2 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani First study that was conducted in Karachi, Pakistan is about the Pakistani Investor's behavior. It gave an insight to individual local investors; investment professionals/ planners and companies listed in Karachi stock exchange. The understanding of behavioral process for investors is essential for planning financial investments since it will help them to use their strategies with their clients. The professional investment, which deals with retail client may incorporate important factors when addressing individual investor concerns. Besides, companies can make their future policies and strategies by focusing on these factors which attract investors and influence them to invest. Literature Review In 1970s, the theory of the individual investors was first appeared. Lease, Lewellen, and Schlarbaum (1974) determined the demographic characteristics, investment strategy patterns, information sources, asset holdings, market attitudes and perceptions, of the individual investor. Baker and Haslem (1974) found that investors were of two different types, one who s who seek capital appreciation and the other who seeks dividends.. Investors who gave importance to dividends were older, females, and risk averse and did not seek a large increase in the value of their stock. While the second type concerned with capital appreciation were willing to sacrifice current dividends for future price appreciation. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) explains that stock market prices reflect all publicly available information so that it is impossible to systematically attain abnormal returns using such information (Winsen, 1976). Winsen (1976) studied whether the flow of information was associated with the investor behavior or not. The findings supported the argument that investors in some firms misunderstand and/or misuse certain publicly available data items which results in their behavior not being an adequate function of the flow of information coming in the stock market. Falk and Matulich (1976) examined the relationship between some personal characteristics of a group of investors and a group of investment advisors, and the degree of risk attributed by them to various types of financial investments. Baker, Hargrove, and Haslem (1977) found that the relationship between risk and total return is positive but lesser than the relationship between risk and capital appreciation. It has been reduced by the negative risk-dividend relationship. As dividends and capital appreciation together sums to total return therefore the presence of a positive risk-total returns relationship even after negative risk-dividends means that the positive association between risk and expected return appears to be due to the impact of capital appreciation in investor expectations of total return. Also it means that lower risk investors seek high dividends while higher risk investors seek higher capital appreciation in growth stocks. Barnwell characterized individual investors as belonging to two extremes- active or passive in her lifestyle analysis. According to Warren, Stevens, and McConkey (1990), demographics are used to segment the market for financial and economic services but lifestyle characteristics help in identifying individual investor s financial needs more precisely. Lifestyle dimensions also helps in differentiating between the investors investments such as stocks and bonds. The analysis revealed that those investors who has little investments they mostly concentrated on the stocks in bonds which can be described as volunteers whereas, those investors who had heavy investments didn t get involved in any community organization and volunteering. Riley and Chow (1992) found that with the increasing of age the risk aversion also decreases i.e. after 65 of age retirement, risk aversion increases with the increase of age. Nagy and Obenberger (1994) studied the factors that are involved in the individual stock investor influence and also examined the wealth maximation criteria which are 16 South Asian Journal of Management Sciences

3 Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior important to the investors.even though investors choose their own method of criteria of stocks. Merikas, Andreas, George, and Prasad (2004) studied that the most important variables were related to classic wealth maximization criteria. Environmental criteria like coverage in the press, statements from politicians and government officials and political party affiliation were totally unimportant to most stock investors. Five factors were identified as Accounting Information, Personal Financial Needs, Subjective/Personal, Advocate Recommendation, and Neutral Information. Hoffmann, Eije, and Jager (2006) researched of the needs and conformity behavior on investors. The results indicated that besides satisfying the financial needs investors also struggle to satisfy socially oriented needs. Hoffmann, et al. (2006) also found that individual investors give importance to financial gains. Thus, this study followed an extended utility approach along with supporting behavioral finance, which states that investing offers both utilitarian and expressive benefits. Therefore investors display a palette of different needs besides the financial aspects of investing (Fisher & Statman, 1997; Statman, 1999; Statman, 2002; Statman, 2004). Al-Tamimi (2006) researched factors were from the corporate earnings expected, government holdings, stock marketability, get rich quick, and the creation of financial markets. The least influencing factor were faced in international financial markets. Factor analysis made 5 factors: neutral information, accounting information, advocate recommendation, self-image / firm-image coincidence, and personal financial needs. Sevil, Sen, and Yalama (2007) aimed at understanding the decision processes of small investors trading in Istanbul stock exchange and found that investors are not completely rational as perceived by traditional finance theories. Research Methods Nagy and Obenberger (1994); used 30 variables previously Al-Tamimi (2006) given in appendix, table 3.1, were used in the Pakistani market, particularly in Karachi. These variables included few from the traditional sphere i.e. utility theory or wealth maximization criteria e.g., expected dividends, expected corporate earnings, perceived risk, while others addressed more modern concerns such as firm's environmental record and perceived firm ethics. Few variables concerned with financial information such as Condition of Financial Statements and Recent Price Movements of Firm's Stock were also used. The study aimed at analyzing the behavior investors/shareholders in Karachi Stock Exchange. The information was gathered from individual investors who purchase and sell stocks in the Karachi Stock Exchange. There are around 200 brokerage houses in Karachi, out of which 142 are active while the rest are inactive. Each active brokerage house has at least 400 individual investors thus giving a total population of around (142*400). The variables were used to identify important variables which influence single investors when taking decisions of stock purchase and whether these variables can be grouped in homogenous sets. Convenience based sampling was the technique used in this research in which respondents were selected based on convenience. Evaluation was conducted by the Participants which influenced equity investment decisions. Respondents noted whether each variable was (1) A important item used to make investment decisions ("Act On"), (2) A secondary item ("Consider") or (3) An item ignored in the investment decision process ("No Influence"). It was a primary research thus data was collected through a questionnaire. 153 questionnaires were distributed to individual investors who invested in Karachi stock exchange and the response rate was 100%. In order to test the reliability of the instrument used, Cronbach Alpha was applied. Cronbach alpha measures the reliability of the different categories and consists of estimates Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) 17

4 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani of how much variation in scores of different variables is due to chance or random errors (Al- Tamimi, 2006). A coefficient greater than or equal to 0.5 is acceptable and a good indication of construct reliability. The sample size chosen for the reliability test was 40. The overall significance level of Cronbach s alpha came out to be 0.761, thus reliability is 76% and the instrument was reliable to be used further in the study. Table 1: Reliability Test Cronbach Alpha N of Items The ranking of the variables are according to frequency that were found in the response category and used factor analyses to examine how well they interacted. Factor analysis technique was used to determine whether there were underlying constructs that represented a combination of investor concerns. Results In response to the study, significant variables based on their frequency distributions were identified which influence individual investor s behavior. Table 6 in appendix lists 30 variables with frequencies which respondents considered to have significant influence on their stock purchase decisions.. Lastly, the sample respondents were more self reliant when considering which stocks to choose and ignore family members and friends/coworkers opinions but considered stock broker advices. Table 7, in appendix, ranks the frequency distribution of variables least influence the investor s behavior. First, Social Relevance & image is apparently not important to investors which include Environmental Record, International Operations, Perceived Ethics of Firm and Local Operations. While Data in Reports/Prospectuses and Exchange listings of companies were given only cursory considerations. The second focus of this research was to identify whether the variables most important to investors from homogenous groups or not. Factor analysis was applied to determine whether there are underlying constructs that signify a combination of investor concerns and varimax Algorithm of Orthogonal Rotation was used. The labeling of the variables and the empirical factor formation and identification are rarely perfect, thus endurance is encouraged. Two variables were removed from factor analysis because their Anti Image values (Measure of Sampling Adequacy; an extension of KMO), were less than 0.5 (i.e and 0.430). These variables were You/Yourself and Family Member Opinions. Removing these variables also improved KMO (Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy) from to and Bartlett test of sphericity is rejected which means that the correlation matrix is not an identity matrix and thus there is an underlying structure among the variables. Table 2 shows the KMO and Bartlett values. Table 2: Assumptions of factor Analysis: KMO & Bartlett tests KMO and Bartlett s Test Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy Bartlett s Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square df 378 Sig South Asian Journal of Management Sciences

5 Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior Seven factors/components were extracted based on Principle Components extraction method and threshold of Eigen value 1. Table 9 in appendix, represents the total variance explained by seven factors extracted. Component one explains 12.8% variation with Eigen value, component two, 10.6%, 2.98, third component with 10.3% and 2.909, fourth component with 7.537% variation and 2.11 Eigen value, fifth component with 7.494% variance explained and Eigen value of 2.098, sixth component with 6.109% and 1.71 Eigen value and seventh component with 5.35% variation and Eigen Value. Table 3 represents the Rotated Component Matrix which identifies seven factors with highest factor loadings of each variable in each factor. The first factor/component bearing 6 variables, tax consequences being omitted because it is cross loading in another component as well, thus 5 variables remaining. Table 3: Rotated Component Matrix identifying seven factors with the highest factor loadings of each variable in each factor. Rotated Component Matrix Component Local Operations.726 International Operations.716 Institutional Holdings.669 Environmental Record.639 Perceived Ethics Of Firm.500 Tax Consequences Competing Financial Needs Current Financial Position.794 Condition of Financial Statements.715 Exchange Listing.632 Data In Reports & Prospectuses.591 Past Performance of Investors Stock.780 Portfolio Past Performance Of Stock.694 Recent Price Movements Of Firms Stock.675 Expected Stock Market Performance.635 Gut Feeling On Economy.533 Expected Corporate Earnings Friend or Coworker Recommendation.717 Attractiveness of Non Stock Investments.677 Use of Valuation Equations.692 Current Economic Indicators.690 Time Before Funds are Needed Diversification Needs Affordable Share Price.718 Minimizing Risk.558 Expected Dividends.476 Stock Broker Recommendation.810 Feelings For Firms Products And.451 Services Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) 19

6 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani Table 4 shows the factors assessment summary to give clarity to the factors extracted. Each factor shows its own reliability score i.e. alpha along with the factor loadings of each variable in each of the seven factors. Table 4: Factors Assessment Summary Factors Factor Loadings Factor 1: Social relevance & Image alpha= (0.762) Local Operations International Operations Institutional Holdings Environmental Record Perceived Ethics Of Firm 0.5 Factor 2 : Accounting Information alpha= (0.752) Current Financial Position Condition of Financial Statements Exchange Listing Data In Reports & Prospectuses Factor 3: Stock Performance alpha= (0.774) Past Performance of Investors Stock Portfolio 0.78 Past Performance Of Stock Recent Price Movements Of Firms Stock Expected Stock Market Performance Gut Feeling On Economy Factor 4: Friend/Coworker Influence alpha= (0.679) Friend or Coworker Recommendation Attractiveness of Non Stock Investments Factor 5: Evaluation alpha= (0.132) Use of Valuation Equations Current Economic Indicators 0.69 Time Before Funds are Needed Factor 6: Classic alpha= (0.463) Affordable Share Price Minimizing Risk Expected Dividends Factor 7: Stock Broker Influence alpha= (0.502) Stock Broker Recommendation 0.81 Feelings For Firms Products And Services South Asian Journal of Management Sciences

7 Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior Table 5: Seven Factors identified through Factor Analysis. Factors Factor 1: Social relevance & Image Factor 2 : Accounting Information Factor 3: Stock Performance Local Operations International Operations Institutional Holdings Environmental Record Perceived Ethics Of Firm Current Financial Position Condition of Financial Statements Exchange Listing Data In Reports & Prospectuses Past Performance of Investors Stock Portfolio Past Performance Of Stock Recent Price Movements Of Firms Stock Expected Stock Market Performance Gut Feeling On Economy Factor 4: Friend/Coworker Influence Friend or Coworker Recommendation Attractiveness of Non Stock Investments factor 5: Evaluation Factor 6: Classic Factor 7: Stock Broker Influence Use of Valuation Equations Current Economic Indicators Time Before Funds are Needed Affordable Share Price Minimizing Risk Expected Dividends Stock Broker Recommendation Feelings For Firms Products And Services Table 5 summarizes the variables in each factor. First factor is Social relevance & Image, which includes Local Operations, International Operations, Institutional Holdings, Environmental Record and Perceived Ethics of Firm.. Second factor was named Accounting Information in which variables that loaded heavily include Current Financial Position, Condition of Financial Statements, Exchange Listing, and Data in Reports & Prospectuses. Third factor was Stock Performance which comprises of Past Performance of Investors Stock Portfolio, Past Performance of Stock, Recent Price Movements of Firms Stock, Expected Stock Market Performance, and Gut Feeling on Economy. All of these variables relate to the past and present performance of stocks and thus its cumulative impact on the stock market makes a sensible factor. All were important variables except Gut Feeling on Economy. Friend/Coworker Recommendation and Attractiveness of Non Stock Investments were a part of fourth factor, Friend/Coworker Influence. The variables in the fourth factor were less influencing on investor s decision making. Use of Valuation Equations, Current Economic Indicators and Time before Funds are needed are a part of fifth factor named Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) 21

8 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani Evaluation. While sixth factor called Classic includes variables such as Affordable Share Price, Minimizing Risk and Expected Dividends.. Final factor called Stock Broker Influence includes Stock Broker Recommendation and Feelings for Firms Products and Services. This factor ascertains that stock broker influences an investor in his purchase decisions and in making a perception about a company s products and services. Stock Broker Recommendation is somewhat important for investors in Karachi and they ignore their feelings for firms products and services. Conclusion Investors also make use of the accounting information derived by financial statements and the firm s financial position in general. Concerns such as the firm's ethical posture, local and international operations, and environmental record are not considered. The recommendations of family members, friends and coworkers go largely unheeded, recommendations of Stock Brokers are considered, but 86% of the sample investors are self reliant and make purchase decisions on their own without any ones influence. Individual investors do not use the valuation models when evaluating stocks but consider the current economic indicators like GDP, Inflation rates, etc. While they ignore exchange listings of firms, the data found in reports and prospectuses, feelings for firms products and services as well as discount the attractiveness of non stock investments. The investment decision process incorporates a broader range of items. Besides, each investor may view the seven broad criteria in a different way in terms of relative importance. This suggests that investment professionals would benefit by incorporating the variables discussed when addressing individual investor concerns. Due to time constraint, it was unable to carry this research a step forward but this can further be taken up by other researchers to take the significant variables found in this study and tests their impact on the common stock holdings of individual investors. References Al-Tamimi, H. A. H., (2006). Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior: An Empirical study of the UAE Financial Markets. Unpublished master s thesis, University of Sharjah, Sharjah, U.A.E. Retrieved, from content/cffrc/ documents/2007/behavioral_finance_al-tamimi.pdf. Baker, H. K., & Haslem, J. A. (1974). Toward The Development Of Client-Specified Valuation Models. Journal of Finance, 29, Baker, H. K., Hargrove, M. B., & Haslem, J. A. (1977). An Empirical Analysis of the Risk- Return Preferences of Individual Investors. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 12(3), Falk, H., & Matulich, S. (1976). The Effect of Personal Characteristics on Attitudes toward Risk. The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 43(2), Fisher, K. L., & Statman, M. (1997). The Mean-Variance-Optimization Puzzle: Security Portfolios and Food portfolios. Financial Analysts Journal, 53, Hoffmann, A. O.I., Eije, von.j. H., & Jager, W. (2006). Individual Investors Needs and Conformity Behavior: An Empirical Investigation in The Netherlands. Lease, R. C., Lewellen, W. G., & Schlarbaum, G. G. (1974). The Individual Investor: Attributes and Attitudes. The Journal of Finance, 29(2), Merikas, A. A., Andreas. G., Vozikis, G. S., & Prasad, D. (2004). Economic Factors And Individual Investor Behavior: The Case Of The Greek Stock Exchange. Journal of Applied Business Research, 20(4), South Asian Journal of Management Sciences

9 Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior Nagy, R. A., & Obenberger, R. W. (1994). Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior. Financial Analysts Journal, 50(4), Neumann, V. J. & Morgenstern, O. (1947). Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: Princeton University Press. Prowse, S. D. (1990). Institutional investment patterns and corporate financial behavior in the United States and Japan. Journal of Financial Economics, 27(1), Riley, W. B., & Chow, K. V. (1992). Asset Allocation and Individual Risk Aversion. Financial Analysts Journal, 48(6), Sevil, G., Sen, M., & Yalama, A. (2007). Small Investor Behavior in Istabul Stock Exchange. Middle Eastern Finance Economics Statman, M. (1999). Foreign Stocks in Behavioral Portfolios. Financial Analyst Journal. Statman, M. (2002). Lottery Players / Stock Traders. Financial Analysts Journal. Statman, M. (2004). What Do Investors Want? The Journal of Portfolio Management. Venter, G.. Van de. (2006). Financial Planners Perceptions of Risk Tolerance. The 2006 Financial Management Association s (FMA) Annual Conference, pp Warren, W. E. E., Stevens, R. E., & McConkey, C. W. (1990). Using Demographic and Lifestyle Analysis to Segment Individual Investors. Financial Analysts Journal, 46(2), Winsen, J. K. (1976). Investor Behavior and Information. The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 11(1), APPENDIX Table 6: 30 variables used in the factor analysis VARIABLES 1) Expected Corporate Earnings 2) Expected Dividends 3) Diversification Needs 4) Competing Financial Needs 6) Past Performance of Investor s Stock 5) Feelings for Firm s Products and Services Portfolio 7) Condition of Financial Statements 8) Affordable Share Price 9) Past Performance of Stock 10) Data in Reports & Prospectuses 11) Attractiveness of Non-Stock Investments 12) Current Economic Indicators 13) Minimizing Risk 14) Use of Valuation Equations 15) Time before Funds are Needed 16) Stock Broker Recommendation 17) Tax Consequences 18) Institutional Holdings 20) Recent Price Movements of Firm s 19) Expected Stock Market Performance Stock 21) Gut Feeling on Economy 22) Family Member Opinions 23) Perceived Ethics of Firm 24) Exchange Listing 25) Friend or Coworker Recommendation 26) Local Operations 27) International Operations 28) Environmental Record 29) You/Yourself 30) Current financial position Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) 23

10 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani Table 7: Frequency Distribution of Variables that Significantly Influence Investor Behavior Frequency Distribution of Variables that Significantly Influence Investor Behavior Variables Frequency Percentages (%) You/Yourself % Expected Dividends % Expected Stock Market Performance % Expected Corporate Earnings % Affordable Share Price % Recent Price Movements of Firm s Stock % Past Performance of Investor s Stock Portfolio % Current financial position % Diversification Needs % Condition of Financial Statements % Past Performance of Stock % Stock Broker Recommendation % Current Economic Indicators % Time before Funds are Needed % Minimizing Risk % Tax Consequences 49 32% Gut Feeling on Economy % Use of Valuation Equations % Competing Financial Needs % Institutional Holdings % Data in Reports & Prospectuses % Exchange Listing % Friend or Coworker Recommendation 29 19% Feelings for Firm s Products and Services % International Operations 23 15% Attractiveness of Non-Stock Investments % Local Operations % Family Member Opinions % Environmental Record % Perceived Ethics of Firm % 24 South Asian Journal of Management Sciences

11 Factors Influencing Individual Investor Behavior Table 8: Frequency Distribution of Variables that Least Influence Investor Behavior Frequency Distribution of Variables that Least Influence Investor Behavior Variables Frequency Percentage (%) Environmental Record % Family Member Opinions % International Operations % Perceived Ethics of Firm % Attractiveness of Non-Stock Investments % Friend or Coworker Recommendation % Exchange Listing % Local Operations % Feelings for Firm s Products and Services % Data in Reports & Prospectuses % Gut Feeling on Economy % Institutional Holdings % Tax Consequences % Past Performance of Stock % Use of Valuation Equations % Past Performance of Investor s Stock Portfolio % Competing Financial Needs % Minimizing Risk 26 17% Time before Funds are Needed % Current Economic Indicators % Condition of Financial Statements % Stock Broker Recommendation % Diversification Needs % Current financial position % Affordable Share Price % Recent Price Movements of Firm s Stock % Expected Corporate Earnings 9 5.9% Expected Stock Market Performance 6 3.9% You/Yourself 4 2.6% Expected Dividends 4 2.6% Vol. 3, No. 1, (Spring 2009) 25

12 Athar Iqbal and Sania Usmani Table 9: The Total Variance Explained by Seven Factors is 60%. Total Variance Explained Extraction Sums of Squared Loadings Rotation Sums of Squared Loadings Initial Eigen values Comp. % of Cumulative % of Cumulative % of Cumulative Total Total Total Variance % Variance % Variance % South Asian Journal of Management Sciences