Chapter Organization. Net present value (NPV) is the difference between an investment s market value and its cost.

Transcription

1 Chapter 9 Net Present Value and Other Investment Criteria Chapter Organization 9.1. Net present value 9.2. The Payback Rule 9.3. The Discounted Payback 9.4. The Average Accounting Return 9.6. The Profitability Index 9.1. Net present value Suppose you buy a run-down house for $ and spent another $ on to get it fixed up. Your total investment is $ When the work is completed, you find that it s worth $ The market value ($60.000) exceeds the cost ($50.000) by $ Net present value 9.1. Net present value Net present value (NPV) is the difference between an investment s market value and its cost. We will estimate NPV as the difference between the present value of the future cash flows and the cost of the investment. This procedure is often called discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation. 3 Suppose we believe the cash revenues form our business will be $ per year. Cash costs will be $ per year. We will wind down the business in eight years. The plant, property, and equipment will be worth $2.000 as salvage at that time. The project costs $ to launch. We use a 15% discount rate. Is this a good investment? 4 1

2 Project cash flows ($000) 9.1. Net present value Time (years) Initial costs -30 Inflows Outflows Net inflow Salvage 2 Net cash flow Net present value Present value = = x (1-1/1,15 8 )/0, /1,15 8 = = 6.000x4, /3,0590 = = We compare this to the $ estimated cost, we see that the NPV is: NPV = = Net present value This is not a good investment. Based on our estimates, taking it would decrease the total value of the stock by $ The Goal of financial management is to increase share value. Net present rule: an investment should be accepted if the net present value is positive and rejected if it is negative 9.1. Net present value Suppose we are asked to decide whether or not a new consumer product should be launched. Based on project sales and costs, we expect that the cash flows over the five-year life of the project will be $2.000 in the first two years, $4.000 in the next two, and $5.000 in the last year. It will cost about $ to begin production. We use a 10% discount rate to evaluate new products. What should we do hear? 7 8 2

3 Present value = 9.1. Net present value = 2.000/1, /1, /1, /1, /1,10 5 = = = = NPV = = The Payback Rule Payback period is the amount of time required for an investment to generate cash flows sufficient to recover its initial cost. The initial investment is $ After the first year, the firm has recovered $30.000, leaving $ The cash flow in the second year is exactly $20.000, so this investment pays for itself in exactly two years. The payback period is two years. If we require a payback of three years or less, then this investment is acceptable The Discounted Payback 9.2. The Payback Rule Year ,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 5,000 Based on the payback rule, an investment is acceptable if its calculated payback period is less than some prespecified number of years. Year =200 we need to recover in 3 rd year 200/500=0,4 The payback period is 2,4 year Year A B C D E

4 Analyzing The Rule Consider the two investments, Long and Short. The payback on Long is 2+(50/)= 2,5 years, and the 9.2. The Payback Rule Year payback of on Short is 1+(150/200)= 1,75 years With the cutoff of two years, Short is acceptable and Long is not Long -250 Short The Payback Rule Suppose again that we require a 15% return on this type of investment. We can calculate the NPV for these two investments. NPV (Short) = (/1,15 1 ) + (200/1,15 2 ) = -11,81 NPV (Long) = x (1-1/1,15 4 )/0,15 = 35, The Payback Rule Advantages and Disadvantages of the Payback Period Rule Advantages 1.Easy to understand. 2.Adjust for uncertainty of later cash flows 3.Biased towards liquidity 9.2. The Payback Rule Disadvantages 1.Ignores the time value of money. 2.Requires an arbitrary cutoff point. 3.Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date. 4.Biased against long-term projects, such as research and development, and new projects

5 9.3. The Discounted Payback Discounted payback period is the length of time required for an investment s discounted cash flows to equal its initial cost. Based on the discounted payback rule, an investment is acceptable if its discounted payback is less than prespecified number of years 9.3. The Discounted Payback Suppose that we require a 12,5% return on new investments. We have an investment that costs $300 and has cash flow of $ per year for five years. To get the discounted payback, we have to discount each cash flow at 12,5% and then start adding them Year The Discounted Payback Cash flow Discounted Undiscounted Undiscounted Accumulated cash flow Discounted The Discounted Payback We see that the regular payback is exactly three years. The discounted cash flows total $300 only after four years, so the discounted payback is four years. How do we interpret the discounted payback? We get our money back, along with the interest we could have earned elsewhere in four years

6 9.3. The Discounted Payback 9.3. The Discounted Payback Let s compare the future value at 12.5% of the $300 investment to the future value of the $ annual cash flows at 12.5%. The two lines cross at exactly the fourth year. Another interesting feature of the discounted payback period is that if a project ever pays back on a discounted basis, then it must have a positive NPV The Discounted Payback By definition, the NPV is zero when the sum of the discounted cash flows equals the initial investment. In our example, the present value of all cash flows is $355. The cost of the project was $300, so the NPV is obviously $55. This $55 is the value of the cash flow that occurs after the discounted payback The Discounted Payback The discounted payback is rarely used in practice, because it really isn t any simpler to use than NPV. Advantages of the Discounted Payback Period Rule: 1.Includes time value of money. 2.Easy to understand. 3.Does not accept negative estimated NPV investments

7 9.3. The Discounted Payback 4.Biased towards liquidity. Disadvantages of the Discounted Payback Period Rule: 1.May reject positive NPV investments. 2.Requires an arbitrary cutoff point The Discounted Payback 3.Ignores cash flows beyond the cutoff date. 4.Biased against long-term projects, such as research and development, and new projects The Average Accounting Return The average accounting return (AAR) is an investment s average net income divided by its average book value. The AAR is defined as: Some measure of average accounting profit Some measure of average accounting value The specific definition we will use is: Average net income Average book value 9.4. The Average Accounting Return Suppose we are deciding whether to open a store in a new shopping mall or not. The required investment in improvements is $ The store would have a five-year life because everything reverts to the mall owners after that time

8 9.4. The Average Accounting Return The required investment would be % depreciated (straight-line) over 5 years, so depreciation would be $ /5=$.000 per year. The tax rate is 25%. Table contains the projected revenues and expenses The Average Accounting Return Year Revenue Expenses Earnings before depreciation Depreciation Earnings before taxes Taxes (0,25%) Net income The Average Accounting Return The average book value during the life of the investment is ($ ) / 2 = $ As long as we use straight-line depreciation, the average investment will always be one-half of the initial investment. ( )/6= The Average Accounting Return Net income is $.000 in the first year, $ in the second year, $ in the third year, $0 in year 4, and in year 5. The average net income is: ( ) / 5= = $

9 9.4. The Average Accounting Return The average accounting return is: Average _ net _ income AAR = = Average _ book _ value $ $ = 20% 9.4. The Average Accounting Return Based on the average accounting return rule, a project is acceptable if its average accounting return exceeds a target average accounting return. If the firm has a target AAR less than 20%, then this investment is acceptable; otherwise it is not The Average Accounting Return Advantages of the Average Accounting Return: 1.Easy to calculate. 2.Needed information will usually be available 9.4. The Average Accounting Return Disadvantages of the Average Accounting Return: 1.Not a true rate of return: time value of money is ignored. 2.Uses an arbitrary benchmark cutoff rate. 3.Based on accounting (book) values, not cash flows and market values

10 The internal rate of return (IRR) is the discounted rate that makes the NPV of an investment zero. To illustrate the idea behind the IRR, consider a project that costs $ today and pays $110 in one year. The return on this investment is 10% and is the internal rate of return, or IRR, on this investment. This project is a good investment if our required return is less than 10%. Based on the IRR rule, an investment is acceptable if the IRR exceeds the required return. Otherwise it should be rejected Imagine that we want to calculate the NPV for our simple investment. At discount rate R, the NPV is: NPV = - $ + 110/(1+R) Now, suppose we don t know the discount rate. But we can still ask how high the discount rate would have to be before this project was deemed unacceptable. The investment is economically a break-even proposition when the NPV is zero because value is neither created nor destroyed. To find the break-even discount rate, we set NPV equal zero and solve for R: NPV = 0 = -$ + 110/(1+R) = 110 / (1+R) 1+R = 110/ =1,1 R = 10%

11 The fact that the IRR is simply the discount rate that makes the NPV equal to zero is important because it tells us how to calculate the returns on more complicated investments. Suppose the investment costs $ and has a cash flow of $60 per year for two years. Year We can set the NPV equal to zero and solve for the discount rate: NPV=0=-+60/(1+IRR) 1 +60/(1+IRR) 2 The only way to find the IRR in general is by trial and error If we were to start with a 0%, the NPV would be $120 - = $20. At a 10% discount rate, we would have: NPV=0=-+60/(1,1) 1 +60/(1,1) 2 =4,13 We can summarize these possibilities in table. The NPV appears to be a zero with discount rate between 10% and 15%. We can find that the IRR is 13,066239%. Discount rate 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% NPV 20,00 11,56 4,13-2,46-8,33 To illustrate the relationship between NPV and IRR we plot the numbers we calculated. We put the different NPVs on the vertical axis and the discount rates on the horizontal axis

12 Net present value profile is a graphical representation of the relationship between an investment s NPVs and various discount rates The NPV rule and the IRR rule lead to identical accept-reject decisions. We will accept an investment using the IRR rule if the required return is less than 13,1%. The NPV is positive at any discount rate less than 13,1%, so we would accept the investment using the NPV rule as well. The IRR and NPV rules always lead to identical decisions if two very important conditions are met. 1.The project cash flow must be conventional. 2.The project must be independent

13 Nonconventional cash flows Suppose we have a strip-mining project that requires a $60 investment. Our cash flow in the first year will be $155. In the second year, the mine will be depleted, but we have to spent $ to restore the terrain. Year To find the IRR on this project, we can calculate the NPV at various rates: Discount rate NPV % -$5, , , , , What s the IRR? To find out, we draw the NPV profile. The NPV is zero when the discount rate is 25% and the NPV is zero at 33,33%. Which of these is correct? We see that the NPV is positive only if our required return is between 25% and 33,33%

14 Descarte s Rule of Sign says that the maximum number of IRRs that there can be is equal to the number of times that the cash flows change sigh from positive to negative and/or negative to positive. The actual number of IRRs can be less than the maximum

15 Mutually exclusive investment decisions is a situation in which taking one investment prevents the taking another. To illustrate the problem with the IRR rule and mutually exclusive investments, consider the following cash flows from two mutually exclusive investments: Year...Investment A...Investment B $ -$ IRR 24% 21% To see why investment A is not necessarily the better of the two investments, we ve calculated the NPV of these investments for different required returns: Discount rate NPV (A) NPV (B) % 60.00$ 70.00$ We see that which investment has higher NPV depends on our required return

16 The conflict between the IRR and NPV for mutually exclusive investments can be illustrated by plotting the investments NPV profiles The NPV profiles cross at about 11%. Notice that at any discount rate less than 11%, the NPV for B is higher. In this range, taking B benefits us more than taking A, even though A s IRR is higher. At any rate greater than 11% Project A has the greater NPV. The crossover rate, by definition, is the discount rate that makes the NPVs of two projects equal. To illustrate, suppose we have following two mutually exclusive investments: Year Investment A Investment B 0-400$ -500$ What s the crossover rate?

17 NPV A = /(1+r) /(1+r) 2 NPV B = /(1+r) /(1+r) 2 NPV A = NPV B /(1+r) /(1+r) 2 = /(1+r) /(1+r) 2 0 = -+ 70/(1+r) 1 +60/(1+r) 2 0 = -+ 70/(1+r) 1 +60/(1+r) 2 We may find r by trial and error. The r is exactly 20%. The two investments have the same value, so this 20% is the crossover rate. The NPV at 20% is $2,78 for both investments Advantages of the Internal Rate of Return 1.Closely related to NPV, often leading to identical decisions. 2.Easy to understand and communicate. Disadvantages of the Internal Rate of Return 1.May result in multiple answers or not deal with nonconventional cash flows. 2.May lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investments

18 9.6. The Profitability Index The profitability index (PI), or benefit-cost ratio. This index is defined as the future cash flows divided by the initial investment. So, if a project costs $200 and the present value of its future cash flows is $220, the profitability index value would be: PI = $220/200 =1,1 Notice, that the NPV for this investment is $ The Profitability Index The PI is obviously very similar to NPV. However, consider the two investments: Costs Present value PI NPV Investment A $5 $10 2 $5 Investment B $ $150 1,5 $ The Profitability Index Advantages of the Profitability Index 1.Closely related to NPV, generally leading to identical decisions. 2.Easy to understand and communicate. 3.May be useful when available investment funds are limited The Profitability Index Advantages of the Profitability Index 1.May lead to incorrect decisions in comparisons of mutually exclusive investments