Sampath Bank PLC BUY. Equity Research. Interim Update Q4 FY 15. Investment Consideration. Valuation

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1 LKR Sampath Bank PLC Interim Update Q4 15 Equity Research SAMP recorded a 25.8% growth in PAT for 2015 and 15.2% growth in the same for 4Q15 on a considerable drop in interest and increase in fee based income. NII increased by 10.5% while interest income remained flat YoY and interest expense being dropped by 7.7%. However NIM declined to 4.3% from 4.7% in 14 due to the falling market interest rates and drop in pawning advances. Total Assets has seen a growth of 21.6% YoY and the loan advances has increased by 25.9% YoY. Total Deposits has shown a 20% growth for the 12 months. Investment Consideration SAMP's total asset base crossed LKR 500 bn mark whilst it continues to be one of the fastest growing LCBs recording 23% 5yr CAGR in its assets base. SAMP continued to record 25% advances growth which is above industry avg. of 23% despite its drop of pawning exposure from 8% to 4% while leasing portfolio being increased by 137% due to higher consumption prevailed in the country last year. With sizeable reduction of its pawning exposure resulting in a bottoming-out of related provisioning has boosted the bank's profit of 15. We expect bank to maintain similar gold advances portion of its portfolio in its future strategy. Currently we are witnessing a rise in interest rates which will have a positive impact for bank's NIMs in short term as deposit liabilities will be lagged in timing of repricing over its advances. Accordingly we estimate NIM to be increased by c.10 basis points for 16 to 4.4% compared to 4.3% in 15. Sri Lanka has seen a relatively higher credit growth in 2015 under low interest regime which has resulted SAMP to register a strong advances growth. However we estimate credit to private sector to slow down in coming years due to rising interest rate environment. Thus we have curtailed down our credit growth estimates of the bank below its historical CAGR of 23% while forecasting 16% for 16 and 18% for 17 & 18. CASA ratio has improved to c.47.6% compared with the previous year 46.8%. However downside pressure on CASA is expected in coming years due to interest rate hikes which will make FDs be more attractive over savings. With 16% estimated YoY growth for next three years, we expect deposits growth to lag the advances and expect bank to fund advances based more on non-deposit based funding. Non interest income recorded a strong growth of 40% YoY indicating SAMP's ability of leveraging on non-fund based income sources such as credit cards and higher exchange gains arising from currency depreciation and other banking services. It accounted 31% of total operating income and we expect SAMP to continue c.30%, and credit card business to continue to support non-interest income. SAMP has been able to curtail down NPL ratio from 1.93% to 1.64% demonstrating an improving trend in credit quality with more diversified portfolio. Its increased exposure to leasing last year will not affect adversely to credit quality with increased taxes and currency depreciation. SAMP is trading at a trailing PE of 5.9X and PBV of 1X, comparatively attractive to the Banks, Finance and Insurance sector multiples 8.5X and 1.3X. Valuation We have slightly revised down our valuation considering expected slowdown of private sector credit growth, recent corporate taxes changes for banks and increased hurdle rate based on interest rate rise. With 17.5% cost of equity which includes 11.5% risk free rate and 6% risk premium, our Residual Income Valuation model values the counter at LKR which is a 6.5% drop compared to previous valuation of LKR 274. However at the current price, counter is trading at a discount to our valuation with 15% upside. Thus we continue to maintain our recommendation BUY for SAMP. 08 April 16 Recommendation Guidance, Important Disclosures and Analyst Certification: Page 07 BUY LOLC SEC Valuation 12M Tgt Price (excl.dividend) Share Price Upside/(Downside) Risk Level (refer page 07 for recommendation) Share Details Bloomberg Ticker CSE Sector GICS Sector SAMP SL Banks, Finance and Insurance Financials Market Cap (LKR Mn) 39,290 Issued Quantity (Mn) day avg T/O (LKR Mn) Beta (6 months) 1.06 Financial Summary LKR Bn 12M Trail Revenue Net Profit S/H's Equity Total Assets ROA (%) 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% ROE (%) 18.0% 16.8% 17.1% 17.5% Price Multiples PE (X) 5.93 PBV (X) 1.00 Price to Sales (X) 0.79 Divdend Yield (%) 6% Price Behavior Per Share Details as at (LKR) Earnings per share (trailing 12m) Net Asset Value per share Sales per share (trailing 12m) Dividend Per Share (trailing 12m) Shareholder Details as at VALLIBEL ONE PLC 14.95% SILVA Y S H I K 9.98% EMPLOYEE PROVIDENT FUND SRILANKA 9.97% ROSEWOOD PVT LTD 6.79% Shareholders below 5% 15.55% Analyst (s) Gayan Rajakaruna gayanraj@lolcsecurities.com LKR LKR LKR % Medium Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr-1 SAMP Share Price ASI movement (adjusted to SAMP base price), LOLC SEC Research

2 Graph 01: Net Interest Income and Profit LKR Mn SAMP recorded the highest ever NII and Profit for Net Interest Income F Profit 2017 F 2018 F Graph 02: Loans Growth LKR Mn 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000-25% loan growth was witnessed in FX Loans LKR Loans Loan Growth 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Graph 03: Customer Advances Portfolio Composition(as at ) Graph 04: Deposits Composition (as at ) Overdrafts Term loans 3.2% 0.4% 8.0% 11% 5% 4% 4% 2% 8% 10% 17% 39% Lease & HP rentals Credit cards Pawning Export loans Housing loans 48.8% 39.5% Demand Savings Call Deposits Fixed Deposits Import loans Others 0.2% Source: Annual Report 2015 Source: Annual Report 2015 Graph 05: SAMP's Pawning Exposure is reducing LKR Mn 450, , , , , , , ,000 50,000 - SAMP's pawning exposure declined to 4% by Total Loans Pawning Pawning Exposure 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Graph 06: Movement of NPL Ratio 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 4.5% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% SAMP's NPL has been declining, indicating an improving trend in credit quality Source: Annual Reports, LOLC Sec Research Source: Annual Report LOLC Securities Limited

3 Valuation We revised our cost of equity to 17.5% which includes 6% risk premium and 11.5% risk free rate. We have revised our risk free rate to 11.5% from 7.28% considering rising interest rate outlook in the country. Hence with 8% mid-term growth and 5% terminal growth, our Residual Income Valuation model values the counter at LKR At the current share price, SAMP is trading at forward PE of 5.9X and a forward PBV of 1X. Table 01: Valuation Sensitivity Matrix Terminal Growth Rate Share price in LKR Cost of Equity 15.5% 16.5% 17.5% 18.5% 19.5% 3% % % % % , LOLC SEC Research Table 02: Peer Comparison Name Price (LKR) Market Cap (USD Mn) ROA (X) Efficiency Ratio (%) Assets Growth-5yrs PER (X) PBV (X) Div Yield (%) (%) Sampath Bank Plc (Sri Lanka) Commercial Bank Of Ceylon Pl (Sri Lank Hatton National Bank Plc (Sri Lanka) Seylan Bank Plc (Sri Lanka) National Development Bank Pl (Sri Lank Dfcc Bank Plc (Sri Lanka) Nations Trust Bank Plc (Sri Lanka) Union Bank Of Colombo Plc (Sri Lanka) Pan Asia Banking Corp Plc (Sri Lanka) Idbi Bank Ltd (India) Bank Tabungan Negara Persero (Indone Union Bank Of Philippines (Philippines) , LOLC SEC Research 3 LOLC Securities Limited

4 Volume Rs Interim Update: Sampath Bank PLC 08 April 16 Table 04: Return comparison Graph 07: Share Price Movement 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 - % SAMP ASPI Index S&P SL 20 Index COMB 3 months months YTD year Volume Price SMAVG (50) SMAVG (100) RSI (14) /7/13 10/7/13 4/7/14 10/7/14 4/7/15 10/7/15 4/7/16 Graph 08: PE Chart /9/13 10/9/13 4/9/14 10/9/14 4/9/15 10/9/15 4/9/1 PE ratio Highest Average Lowest Graph 10: Price per Sales /9/13 10/9/13 4/9/14 10/9/14 4/9/15 10/9/15 4/9/16 Price to Sales ratio Highest Average Lowest Graph 12: CSE PE Chart /09/13 10/09/13 04/09/14 10/09/14 04/09/15 10/09/15 04/09/16 ASI PE ratio Highest Average Lowest Graph 09: PBV Chart /09/13 10/09/13 04/09/14 10/09/14 04/09/15 10/09/15 04/09 PBV ratio Highest Average Lowest Graph 11: Dividend Yield Graph 13: CSE PBV Chart 0.0 4/9/13 10/9/13 4/9/14 10/9/14 4/9/15 10/9/15 4/9/16 SAMP dividend yield Highest Average Lowest /9/13 10/9/13 4/9/14 10/9/14 4/9/15 10/9/15 4/9/16 ASI PBV ratio Highest Average Lowest 4 LOLC Securities Limited

5 Table 05: Revised Financial Summary Forecast Figures in LKR Mn (31st Dec) (F) 17 (F) 18 (F) Income Statement Interest Income 42,320 39,756 39,787 56,303 72,117 83,978 Interest Expenses 27,226 22,915 21,156 33,429 47,471 55,159 Net Interest Income 15,095 16,841 18,631 22,875 24,646 28,820 Non Interest Income 6,091 6,630 9,310 10,427 11,678 13,079 Net Revenue 21,186 23,471 27,941 33,301 36,324 41,899 Provisions for Loan Losses 3,850 1, ,935 1,156 1,365 Net Revenue After Provisions 17,336 21,890 26,948 30,366 35,169 40,534 Non-Interest Expense 12,547 14,603 17,161 20,078 23,090 26,554 PBT 4,789 7,247 9,790 10,288 12,079 13,980 Tax Provision 1,151 1,979 3,161 3,292 4,107 4,753 PAT 3,638 5,268 6,628 6,996 7,972 9,227 Minority Interests Net Profit 3,635 5,263 6,623 6,991 7,966 9,220 Balance Sheet Cash & Near Cash Items 43,943 62,330 40,249 54,633 61,806 68,877 Short-Term Investments 53,094 31,811 63,053 64,944 66,893 68,900 Net Loans 278, , , , , ,569 Long-Term Investments 1, Net Fixed Assets 8,327 8,389 8,697 9,218 9,771 10,358 Other Assets 5,395 4,746 5,289 6,082 6,995 8,044 Total Assets 391, , , , , ,831 Customer Deposits 300, , , , , ,540 ST Borrowings & Repos 3,055 12,500 8,663 9,529 10,482 11,530 Other Short-Term Liabilities 2,808 2,515 5,112 5,624 6,186 6,805 Long-Term Borrowings 44,749 46,120 68,589 80,936 95, ,695 Other Long-Term Liabilities 8,550 7,372 9,916 11,701 13,807 16,292 Total Liabilities 359, , , , , ,862 Minority Interest Share Capital & APIC 4,460 4,470 5,381 5,414 5,414 5,414 Retained Earnings & Other Equity 27,210 30,041 33,727 38,478 43,997 50,429 Total Equity 31,760 34,604 39,203 43,996 49,526 55,969 Total Liabilities & Equity 391, , , , , ,831, LOLC SEC Research 5 LOLC Securities Limited

6 Table 06: Forecast Ratios (F) 17 (F) 18 (F) Banking Ratios Return on Assets - after tax 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% Return on Common Equity 13% 16% 18% 17% 17% 18% Efficiency Ratios 59% 62% 61% 60% 64% 63% Net Interest Spread 6% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% Common Equity/Total Assets 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% Prov Loan Losses/Total Loans 1% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0% Total Loans/Total Deposits 96% 101% 105% 105% 107% 109% Total Loans/Total Assets 74% 77% 80% 80% 81% 83% Deposits/Assets 77% 77% 76% 76% 76% 76% Earning Assets/Int Bearing Liabilities 97% 93% 101% 100% 100% 100% Growth Ratios Interest Income Growth 30% -6% 0% 42% 28% 16% Interest Expense Growth 32% -16% -8% 58% 42% 16% Net Interest Income Growth 26% 12% 11% 23% 8% 17% Net Revenue Growth 20% 11% 19% 19% 9% 15% Net Income Growth -30% 45% 26% 6% 14% 16% Earning Assets Growth 27% 10% 32% 14% 16% 17% Assets Growth 25% 13% 22% 16% 16% 16% Net Worth Growth 24% 9% 13% 12% 13% 13% Net Loan Growth 30% 20% 26% 16% 18% 18% Deposit Growth 27% 13% 20% 16% 16% 16% Earnings per share (LKR) Book Value per share (LKR) PE Ratio (X) 7.9% 7.7% 6.5% 5.6% 4.9% 4.3% Price to Book Value (X) Dividend Yield (%) 4.2% 4.2% 4.7% 6.2% 7.1% 8.2%, LOLC SEC Research 6 LOLC Securities Limited

7 Recommendation Guidance LOLC SEC Valuation BUY expected return > 10% in excess of benchmark return SELL expected return less than benchmark return HOLD expected return between 0% and 10% in excess of benchmark return Investment Horizon: 3 years 12 months target price (12M Tgt Price) is based on the expected capital appreciation of the share excluding dividend. Benchmark Interest Rate: Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) published by Central Bank of Sri Lanka. Risk Level Evaluation High: Maximum price volatility to be up or down more than 50% monthly Medium: Maximum price volatility to be up or down between 25% - 50% monthly. Low: Maximum price volatility to be up or down less than 25% monthly. Risk Level is calculated taking the historical standard deviation measures. Financial Glossary EPS = Earnings per Share ROA = Return on Assets (adjusted net profit/average total assets) ROE = Return on Equity (adjusted net profit/average total equity) CAGR = Compound Annual Growth Rate ((End Value/Start Value) ^ (1/number of years) -1) GP= Gross Profit EBITDA= Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization PBT= Profit before tax PAT= Profit after tax NP= Net Profit PBV= Price to book value ratio PE= Price to earnings ratio Analyst certification: The Analyst(s) who is/are responsible for compiling or co-compiling this research and whose names appear as the analyst(s) of the research certify that the views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal view of the analyst(s) about the subject securities and issuers and/or other subject matter as appropriate and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. No part of the compensation received by the analyst(s) was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to specific inclusion of specific recommendation or views in this research. On a general basis analyst s performance appraisal may be influenced by quality of the content and efficacy of the research. The analyst(s) who is/are responsible for compiling or co-compiling this research and whose names appear as the analyst(s) receive compensation based on overall revenues of LOLC Securities Limited and its holding company (Lanka ORIX Company PLC LOLC Group), which may include brokerage revenue from transactions involved with the securities mentioned in this research. General Disclaimer: LOLC Securities Limited is a company incorporated in Sri Lanka and licensed by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Sri Lanka to operate as a stockbroker/stock dealer in Sri Lanka. LOLC Securities Limited is a trading member of Colombo Stock Exchange. This research is based on information from sources that LOLC Securities Limited believes to be reliable. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure accuracy of the information presented in the research, LOLC Securities Limited does not give a guarantee on the accuracy of the information presented in the paper nor will take the responsibility on investment decisions taken based on the information provided by the research and hence LOLC Securities Limited nor its employees accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from investments decisions taken using the information provided in this paper. The reader also should note this paper does not give recommendations to any particular category of investors and investor should consult investment advisors for further clarifications regarding risks involved in investing in equity market. Investing in securities has inherent risks with no guaranteed return and price may be subjected to significant volatilities. No part of this report should be considered as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any transaction. LOLC Securities Limited or its employees may or may not hold positions in the securities discussed in the research and the information provided in the research should not be construed as a buy or sell instruction for any securities mentioned in the research, Unless otherwise specifically mentioned. This research is intended for general use for clients of LOLC Securities Limited and must not be copied in whole or in part or distributed to any third party for commercial use without permission from LOLC Securities Limited. If the reader is not the intended recipient please inform LOLC Securities Limited immediately by return to research@lolcsecurities.com. LOLC Securities Limited s other staff including sales people, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentaries or trading strategies to our clients which reflect opinions which are contrary to the opinions expressed in this research which may be influenced by different circumstances. 7 LOLC Securities Limited

8 LOLC Securities Limited LOLC Securities Limited, a trading member of the Colombo Stock Exchange (CSE), is engaged in facilitating stock trading transactions at Colombo Stock Exchange, providing investment research on Sri Lankan equity, providing investment planning advices with services such as portfolio construction & formulation of IPS (Investment Policy Statement) and facilitating other investment opportunities in the country including private equity. General Line: General info@ lolcsecurities.com Research research@ lolcsecurities.com Website: SALES Head Office Sriyan Gurusinghe Managing Director / CEO / sriyang@ lolcsecurities.com Manjula Kumarainghe COO - Sales & Marketing / manjulak@lolcsecurities.com Maniesh Rodrigo Assistant General Manager / manieshr@ lolcsecurities.com Samadhi Jayasinghe Manager Institutional Sales / samadhij@ lolcsecurities.com Imesh Fernando Assistant Manager Sales / imeshf@ lolcsecurities.com Naleen Sadeesh Investment Advisor / naleensa@ lolcsecurities.com Damith Chaminda Investment Advisor / damithc@ lolcsecurities.com Dushan Rajaguru Investment Advisor / dushanr@ lolcsecurities.com Asendra Wijesiri Investment Advisor / asendraw@ lolcsecurities.com Dinuka Niwantha Investment Advisor / dinukan@ lolcsecurities.com Niraj Jayamanne Investment Advisor / nirajj@ lolcsecurities.com Rehan Ariyaratne Business Development Associate / rehana@ lolcsecurities.com Kurunegala Branch Rohana Chandrasiri Assistant General Manager / rohanac@ lolcsecurities.com Anurudda Rajakaruna Investment Advisor / anuruddhar@ lolcsecurities.com Nuwan Fernando Investment Advisor / nuwanfe@ lolcsecurities.com Bandula Senarathne Investment Advisor / bandulase@lolcsecurities.com Galle Branch Bimal Malinda Branch Head / bimalm@ lolcsecurities.com Ushan De Silva Investment Advisor / ushand@lolcsecurities.com Thilina Sameera Investment Advisor / thilinawa@lolcsecurities.com Matara Branch Lalinda Liyanapathirana Investment Advisor / lalindal@ lolcsecurities.com Ahamed Aadil Investment Advisor / aadila@ lolcsecurities.com Malith Jayawardane Investment Advisor / malithj@lolcsecurities.com RESEARCH Shehan Bartholomeuz Head of Research / shehanb@ lolcsecurities.com Gayan Rajakaruna Senior Research Analyst / gayanraj@ lolcsecurities.com Hiruni Perera Associate Research Analyst / hirunipe@ lolcsecurities.com Head Office Kurunegala Branch Galle Branch Matara Branch LOLC Securities Limited No 06, 1st Floor, No 18, 1st floor, No. 481, Union Assurance Building, Sri Dewamitta Mawatha, E.H. Cooray Towers, T.B Jaya Mawatha Rajapilla Mawatha Galle No 24, Anagarika Dharmapala Mawatha, Colombo 10 Kurunegala, Sri Lanka Matara Sri Lanka Sri Lanka Tel : Sri Lanka Tel: Tel: Tel: Fax: Fax: LOLC SEC Research Reports are also available at Bloomberg LOLC <GO> 8 LOLC Securities Limited

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