June of us, and how many, will zig when others are zagging. We

Transcription

1 3/1 3/14 3/28 4/8 5/17 6/24 7/8 7/21 8/3 8/16 8/29 9/12 9/23 10/6 10/19 11/1 11/14 11/28 12/9 12/22 1/6 1/20 2/2 2/15 3/1 3/14 3/27 4/7 5/17 6/26 4/3 4/5 4/7 4/11 4/13 4/18 4/20 4/24 4/26 4/28 5/2 5/8 5/10 5/12 5/16 5/18 5/22 5/24 5/26 6/2 6/6 6/8 6/12 6/14 6/16 6/20 6/22 6/26 6/28 6/30 12/30 1/6 1/12 1/19 1/25 1/31 2/6 2/10 2/16 2/23 3/1 3/7 3/13 3/17 3/23 3/29 4/4 4/10 4/17 4/27 5/3 5/9 5/15 5/19 5/25 6/1 6/7 6/19 6/23 6/29 June 2017 Market Commentary Arguably the most difficult job in the world, at its core, investing is quite simple. To be successful, all you need to do is see the future; find the company which will increase sales and make more money. Simple. To help companies meet success, we invented marketing to convince consumers of the greatness of products, assembly lines to increase efficiency, and an untold number of managerial methods to motivate employees. To assist as much as possible, politicians scramble to introduce policies which will lift all boats. While politicians have different policies and methods to accomplish their vision, the goal of making people s lives better is largely the same. However, to make a difference, business executives and politicians actually have to do something. As much as I would like to see some of his pro-growth policies implemented, watching the slow-motion car wreck which is the Trump presidency is painful. As more time goes by without much accomplished, it seems we re witnessing a missed opportunity. As an investor and one whose job it is to see the future, my one plea to the President; stop Tweeting and start doing! Seeing the future is difficult. Like detectives, investors look for clues which we use to form a picture of what could be. We look at businesses and consumer surveys to gage the appetite for spending. We dissect Fed statements for any morsel of direction. We measure sales, earnings, growth and valuation for an indication of trend. We even look at each other in order to determine which 1.20 of us, and how many, will zig when others are zagging. We 2017 YTD Performance 1.15 combine these clues with experience to produce probabilities of future direction, which can then be mapped into stocks, bonds 1.10 and portfolios. As I said, simple Having written about the market s valuation, Trump and corporate earnings ad nauseam, I thought I d write about a potential change of market leadership this quarter and month and what it may mean for investors. Having led markets higher, technology stocks suffered a few days of difficult performance. Reviewing the charts to right we see that the tech-heavy NASDAQ has led the market in 2017, up nearly 15%, while the S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 has trailed. In the 2 nd quarter, the trend continued, but only through May. June saw a reversal where the NASDAQ fell nearly 2% as small caps rose more than 1%. Coincidentally, we also saw a spike in volatility, most obvious in the 3-month rolling daily volatility chart below (although all other time periods show the same thing). The break began on May 17 th as investors reacted to James Comey s memo that said Trump asked him to stop the investigation into Flynn. June 9 th 1.60% 1.40% 1.20% % 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.00% 3-Month Rolling Daily Volatility 6/1 6/2 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/9 6/12 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/23 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29 6/30 was the second break as Goldman Sachs released a report saying big-name tech stocks (Apple, Alphabet, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) were extended. Then, on June 27 th tech stocks fell on valuation concerns again, regained much of what they had lost on June 28 th only to lose it all again on June 29 th Q2 Performance 2017 June Performance

2 While volatility and market drops are coincident indicators of the same event, the focus on market valuation as the trigger for a market fall(s) is more significant. As another clue in the never-ending puzzle that is the market, it suggests investors are cautious of the market s ability to sustain growth given no real change in economic growth. In other words, at the current valuation, the market is a hungry beast which requires more food to grow. Without additional economic stimulus, it s unclear how the beast survives. Janet Yellen has signaled higher interest rates and begun the process of withdrawing quantitative easing. President Trump can t seem to take his foot out of his month long enough to pass legislation to reduce tax rates or fix health care. So, we re in a good, but not great, economic environment with an expensive stock market. As I don my deerstalker hat and puff my Calabash pipe, my reading of the future says be careful. Performance June and quarter 2 performance for Financial reflected the caution of above. Outperforming during the more turbulent June while trailing slightly over the entire quarter. Summer months can be quite challenging due to lower volume and less news, markets can have outsized reactions to any event. Whether June s reactions were a reflection of that or a reaction to high valuations is yet to be determined. Regardless of the reason, overall caution, with some exposure to the market, seems the prudent course of action. As has been the case, the more market-exposed external and retirement accounts reflect the longer-term view of equities for the long-term while the taxable composite reflects the shorter-term let s not lose any money view. 1.2% Financial LLC - June 2017 Performance 1.04% 0.88% 0.8% 0.6% 0.53% 0.48% 0.4% 0.28% 0.2% 0.15% -0.02% -0.2% Taxable Qualified Managed Externally

3 12/30/2016 1/4/2017 1/6/2017 1/10/2017 1/12/2017 1/17/2017 1/19/2017 1/23/2017 1/25/2017 1/27/2017 1/31/2017 2/2/2017 2/6/2017 2/8/2017 2/10/2017 2/14/2017 2/16/2017 2/21/2017 2/23/2017 2/27/2017 3/1/2017 3/3/2017 3/7/2017 3/9/2017 3/13/2017 3/15/2017 3/17/2017 3/21/2017 3/23/2017 3/27/2017 3/29/2017 3/31/2017 4/4/2017 4/6/2017 4/10/2017 4/12/2017 4/17/2017 4/19/2017 /2017 4/25/2017 4/27/2017 5/1/2017 5/3/2017 5/5/2017 5/9/2017 5/11/2017 5/15/2017 5/17/2017 5/19/2017 5/23/2017 5/25/2017 5/30/2017 6/1/2017 6/5/2017 6/7/2017 6/9/2017 /2017 6/15/2017 6/19/2017 6/21/2017 6/23/2017 6/27/2017 6/29/2017 Financial LLC - Q Performance 3.5% 3.0% 3.02% 2.57% 2.67% 2.5% 2.08% 1.98% 2.16% 1.58% 1.5% 0.5% Taxable Qualified Managed Externally Financial LLC Cumulative Performance Tax Qualified Externally Managed S&P 500 Barclay's Agg Custom

4 Financial LLC Performance Relative to the S&P % Financial LLC Performance Relative to Barclay's US Bond Aggregate - 4.0% - 3.0% -3.0% -4.0% % - Taxable Taxable Qualified Managed Externally Qualified Managed Externally Financial LLC Performance Relative to Custom Index Financial LLC - Inception To Date Performance % % 15.86% % 11.51% 1-3.0% 5.65% 4.86% -4.0% Taxable Qualified Managed Externally Taxable Qualified Managed Externally S&P 500 Barclay's US Aggregate Custom

5 Financial LLC - ITD Risk vs. Return Financial LLC - ITD Information Ratio Managed Externally Qualified S&P Custom Taxable Barclay's US Aggregate % 6.0% 8.0% % Qualified Taxable Managed Externally Custom Benchmark = 45% S&P 500, 40% Barclay s US Aggregate, 10% MSCI EAFE & 5% MSCI Emerging Markets