CASCADES Review of financial results Q2 2011

Transcription

1 CASCADES Review of financial results Q August 10, 2011

2 DISCLAIMER Certain statements in this presentation, including statements regarding future results and performance, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of securities legislation based on current expectations. The accuracy of such statements is subject to a number of risks, uncertainties and assumptions that may cause actual results to differ materially from those projected, including, but not limited to, the effect of general economic conditions, decreases in demand for the Company s products, the prices and availability of raw materials, changes in the relative values of certain currencies, fluctuations in selling prices and adverse changes in general market and industry conditions. This presentation also includes price indices as well as variance and sensitivity analyses that are intended to provide the reader with a better understanding of the trends related to our business activities. These items are based on the best estimates available to the Company. The financial information included in this presentation also contains certain data that are not measures of performance under IFRS ( non-ifrs measures ). For example, the Company uses earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) because it is the measure used by management to assess the operating and financial performance of the Company s operating segments. Such information is reconciled to the most directly comparable financial measures, as set forth in the Supplemental Information on Non-IFRS Measures section of our most recent quarterly report or annual report. Specific items are defined as items such as charges for impairment of assets, for facility or machine closures, debt restructuring charges, gains or losses on sales of business units, unrealized gains or losses on derivative financial instruments that do not qualify for hedge accounting, foreign exchange gains or losses on long-term debt and other significant items of an unusual or non-recurring nature. All amounts in this presentation are in Canadian dollars unless otherwise indicated. 2

3 OPENING REMARKS 3

4 QUARTERLY HIGHLIGHTS Financial results and balance sheet reflecting: the full consolidation of Reno De Medici s numbers; the divestiture of Dopaco. Without the impact of these two factors, improving operating results compared to Q1 2011, despite the significant inflation of input costs and the Canadian dollar in the past 9 months. EPS of $1.21 compared to a net loss earnings of $0.08 in Q Excluding specific items, net loss per share of $0.06 compared to EPS of $0.01 in Q EBITDA excluding specific items of $62 million compared to $37 million (or $52 million including 100% of Reno De Medici) in the first quarter of Net debt down $157 million (11%) compared to Q Excluding the impact of the full consolidation of Reno De Medici, the net debt would have decreased more than $300 million (21%). Divestiture of the Versailles (Connecticut) and Hebron (Kentucky) boxboard facilities. Announcement of an investment in Greenpac Mill LLC, a corporation created for the purpose of constructing and operating a state of the art containerboard mill to be located in Niagara Falls (New York). Closure of the corrugated box plant of Leominster (Massachusetts). 4

5 SUMMARY OF FINANCIAL RESULTS 2009 (Canadian GAAP) 2010 (IFRS) 2011 (IFRS) (In millions of CAN$, except amount per share) Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Financial results Sales 3, , Excluding specific items EBITDA Net earnings (loss) (6) Net earnings (loss) per share (0.06) Cash flow from operations (adjusted) (M CAN$) EBITDA (% of sales) (M CAN$) Cash flow from operations (adjusted) (% of sales) % % % % % 6.0% % 5.0% 3.0% 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q % 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q % Rebound in results in spite of the rise of several of our costs, the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and fragile demand for packaging. p EBITDA, net earnings and cash flow from operations (adjusted) excluding specific items. 5

6 BUSINESS CONDITIONS Selling prices Cascades North American manufacturing selling price and raw material cost indices (US$) Raw material costs Q Q Q Q Q Selling prices index (US$) Year Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 YTD US$/CAN$ $0.88 $0.96 $0.97 $0.96 $0.99 $0.97 $1.01 $1.03 $1.02 Natural Gas Henry Hub - US$/mmBtu $3.99 $5.30 $4.09 $4.38 $3.80 $4.39 $4.10 $4.31 $4.21 Capacity utilization rate (Manufacturing) 86% 92% 94% 91% 87% 91% 90% 90% 90% Total shipments ('000 s.t.) 2, , ,558 Q Q Q Q Raw materials index (US$); Q Business conditions still challenging in Q2: slightly tighter spread, stronger Canadian dollar. See notes page 28. Source: Bloomberg. 6

7 FINANCIAL REVIEW 7

8 Q Q EBITDA VARIANCE ANALYSIS (M CAN$) Q including Dopaco and JVs Discontin. operations (Dopaco) Joint ventures Q (IFRS) Selling prices & mix Business acquis. & disposals Energy costs Shipments Variation of the CAN$ Other costs Raw material costs & mix Q (IFRS) Discontin. operations (Dopaco) Joint ventures (M CAN$) Containerboard (1) 1 2 (1) (4) (1) Boxboard 23 (11) (7) (2) (4) (1) Specialty products 9 (2) (1) Tissue papers (2) (7) Corporate (4) (4) 1 (3) (3) Total 57 (11) (9) (2) (8) (9) Also include the indirect impact of F/X (Canadian sales in CAN$ but based on US$ reference price) Better EBITDA on improved selling prices and volumes (excluding divestitures and closure), a more favourable sales mix, the full consolidation of Reno De Medici M and lower energy costs. Q including Dopaco and JVs EBITDA excluding specific items. 8

9 SEGMENTED EBITDA (M CAN$) Boxboard (including Reno de Medici from Q2-11) (% of sales) % % % % % 0 0.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q (M CAN$) Containerboard (% of sales) % % % % % % 7.0% 0 5.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q (M CAN$) Specialty products 18 (% of sales) 10.0% (M CAN$) 30 Tissue papers (% of sales) 12.0% % 6.0% 4.0% % 6.0% 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q % 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q % Improved EBITDA in all segments. EBITDA excluding specific items. 9

10 KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS (KPIs) ('000 s.t.) Total Shipments Capacity utilization rate % 94% 94% % 92% 91% % 90% 90% % 87% 86% % % Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Return on assets Working capital (% of sales) 12.0% 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 11.5% 11.2% 11.0% 10.6% 9.9% 7.6% 20.0% 18.0% 16.0% 14.0% 14.7% 16.3% 16.1% 14.6% 15.0% 14.8% 7.0% 12.0% 6.0% 10.0% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Excluding the impact of divestitures, one closure and the full consolidation c of Reno De Medici, shipments would have been relatively flat compared to Q Divestitures: 2 boxboard facilites (Hebron, Versailles), Avot-Vallée containerboard mill, Dopaco; closure: Leominster corrugated box plant. See notes page

11 Q EBITDA TO OP. INCOME RECONCILIATION (M CAN$) EBITDA excl. spec. items Depreciation & amortization EBIT excl. spec. items Gain on disposal and others Unrealized loss on financial instr. Inventory adj. resulting from business acquisition Closure and restructuring costs Operating income Container- Specialty Tissue Corporate Discontinued (M CAN$) Boxboard board Products Papers Activities Operations Total Operating income (loss) (5) (2) 18 Specific items: Gain on disposal and others - (7) (1) (8) Inventory adjustment resulting from business acquisition Closure and restructuring costs Unrealized gain on financial instruments - (2) (2) Total specific items 6 (9) (3) Operating income (loss) excluding specific items (5) (2) 15 Depreciation (2) 47 EBITDA excluding specific items (3) (4) 62 11

12 Q NET EARNINGS RECONCILIATION (M CAN$) (6) Net loss excluding spec. items Included in disc.oper. Tax effect on specific items Gain on disposal and others Unreal. gain on fin. Instruments Closure and restructuring costs F/X loss on long-term debt Inventory adj. resulting from business acquisition Net earnings 12

13 CASH FLOW OVERVIEW (in millions of CAN$) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year Q1 Q2 Cash flow from operations (including discontinued operations) Capital expenditures & other assets 1 (33) (23) (24) (50) (130) (37) (22) Dividend & Share Buyback (6) (6) (4) (4) (20) (5) (6) Free cash flow (20) (14) Free cash flow per share 0.12 $ 0.26 $ 0.58 $ 0.00 $ 0.96 $ (0.21)$ (0.15)$ (M CAN$) % 12% Free cash flow 56 15% 14% 0 8% (20) (16) 6% Q Q Q Q Q Q Free cash flow Free cash flow yield 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% (M CAN$) (30) (60) Cash flow from operations (including discontinued operations) Q Q Q Q Q Q Free cash flow slightly improved but was again pressured by low profitability. CAPEX to be kept at a minimum level in H Free cash flow yield is defined as LTM FCF per share / share price end of period. 1 Excluding increase in investments. 13

14 NET DEBT RECONCILIATION (M CAN$) 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 1, Excluding the net debt of Reno De Medici, Cascades debt amounts to $1,142 M ,288 Net debt March 31, 2011 Conso. net debt of Reno De Medici Var. of working capital Other assets & investments CAPEX Proceeed of sale of Dopaco. Tax liability to be paid in Q Dividend, bbacks Cash flow from discontinued operations Cash flow from continuing operations Others Net debt June 30, 2010 Net debt down 11% compared to Q1 2011, down 21% when excluding the t net debt of Reno De Medici. 14

15 BALANCE SHEET & KEY FINANCIAL RATIOS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 (LTM EBITDA incl. 100% of Reno) 60.0% 55.0% 50.0% Total assets 3,452 3,497 3,544 3,437 3,452 3,835 Total debt 1,469 1,522 1,477 1,403 1,455 1,306 Net debt* 1,454 1,508 1,462 1,397 1,445 1,288 Shareholders' equity 1,067 1,081 1,101 1,049 1,038 1,135 Book value per share $11.01 $11.18 $11.40 $10.86 $10.77 $11.80 LTM EBITDA LTM Interest % Debt / Debt + Equity 58.4% 53.5% Net debt / LTM EBITDA % % Q Q Q2 (LTM EBITDA incl. 100% of Reno) 3.0 Q Q Q2 (LTM EBITDA incl. 100% of Reno) With the sale of Dopaco,, significant improvement in debt-to to-cap ratio. * Q net debt includes the net debt of Reno De Medici of $146 M. EBITDA excluding specific items. 15

16 SEGMENTED REVIEW 16

17 TISSUE PAPERS Sales EBITDA EBITDA margins Shipments Avg. Selling price Avg. Selling price (in millions $) (in millions $) (% of sales) (in thousands s.t.) ($CAN/s.t.) ($US/s.t.) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Manufacturing and converting % 5% ,630 1,599 1,685 1,622 Sales rebounded 10% due to higher volumes and average selling price. Both external shipments of parent rolls and converted products increased compared to the previous quarter. The growth was however larger in the converting operations (+11% vs. Q1 2011). This is mainly due to the seasonal recovery in the away-from-home market and increased promotional activities in our consumer product businesses. The average selling price in U.S. dollars rose by nearly 4% mostly as a result of a more favorable sales mix (more shipments of converted products in proportion of total shipments), and the implementation of price increases of US $ 50 / s.t. on parent rolls at the end of first quarter (brown grades) and in the second quarter (white grades). In addition, in the second half of the quarter, we began implementing price increases in the Canadian and U.S. away-from-home markets. The realization of these increases will continue in the 3 rd quarter. In July, we have also started to raise our selling prices by 5.5% to 8% in the Canadian and U.S. retail sectors. Overall, EBITDA and margins improved significantly mostly as a result of growing volumes and selling prices which more than offset the higher cost of raw materials. The decline in energy costs as well as the better operating performance of some of our units also explain part of the improvement compared to Q On July 19, we announced the acquisition of 50% of the remaining shares that we do not hold in Papersource Converting Mill Corp. The transaction, for a total cost of approximately $ 85 million (including debt), is subject to the approval of the Competition Bureau and is expected to close around mid-september. This will increase the level of integration of the Tissue Group to more than 70%, will strengthen its position in the away-from-home sector in Canada and the United States, and will have a positive impact on Cascades net earnings. EBITDA excluding specific items. 17

18 PACKAGING - BOXBOARD Sales EBITDA EBITDA margins Shipments Avg. Selling price Avg. Selling price (in millions $) (in millions $) (% of sales) (in thousands s.t.) (CAN$/s.t.) (US$ or euro/s.t.) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Manufacturing - N. America (1) (1) (2%) (2%) Manufacturing - Europe % 8% Converting % 8% ,849 1,802 1,910 1,828 Discontinued operations 1 (42) (106) (4) (11) 10% 10% (22) (48) n/a n/a n/a n/a Others and eliminations (13) (11) (17) (20) % 3% North America / Manufacturing Despite the rise of the CAN$ and the divestiture of the Versailles (Connecticut) at the end of the quarter (June 23), sales rose 10% thanks to increased demand and the gradual implementation of a price hike on recycled board. In fact, the average selling in US $ advanced by close to US $20/s.t. for a second consecutive quarter. Prices should continue to progress moving into the 3rd quarter as the implementation is gradually going through. Operating income before amortization (EBITDA) remained stable as the growth in selling prices and lower energy costs were offset by the stronger Canadian dollar, the cost of raw materials, maintenance and freight. North America / Converting (excluding the discontinued operations, Dopaco) Alike the mills, the folding carton plants have benefitted from growing volumes and prices. However, the EBITDA stayed flat given the rise in paperboard and some variable and fixed costs. In parallel to the sale of the Versailles mill, we have completed the divestiture of the Hebron (Kentucky) folding carton facility. Europe / manufacturing (include 100% of Reno De Medici in Q2, not included in Q1) In Europe, results reflect the consolidation of 100% of Reno De Medici s figures in the second quarter. Excluding this, profitability remained relatively stable as improved volumes in the recycled grades (Reno de Medici) offset lower shipments in the virgin grades. Prices also stayed constant while the cost of raw materials continued to grow. 1 European manufacturing figures include Reno de Medici starting in Q Converting figures include discontinued operations (Dopaco) that are eliminated on another line. EBITDA excluding specific items. 18

19 PACKAGING - CONTAINERBOARD Sales EBITDA EBITDA margins Shipments Avg. Selling price Avg. Selling price (in millions $) (in millions $) (% of sales) (in thousands s.t.) (CAN$/s.t. or msf) (US$/s.t. or msf) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Manufacturing % 5% Converting % 7% Others and eliminations (77) (80) 1 (1) - - (153) (153) % 14% Manufacturing Sales declined due to the disposal of the Avot-Vallée mill, the shutdown of the facility in Trenton in June, and the strength of the CAD. Moreover, during the quarter, the average price was negatively affected by these factors. Excluding the sale of the Avot-Vallée mill and the closure of the Trenton mill, shipments would have remained relatively constant, despite the planned maintenance downtime in two other units. The decline in profitability is mainly related to larger maintenance and repair expenses, higher transportation costs, the appreciation of the Canadian dollar and the divestiture of the Avot-Vallée mill. At the end of the quarter, we announced an investment of nearly $ 100 million in a new corporation, Greenpeace Mill LLC, to build a new statefo-the-art containerboard mill in Niagara Falls (NY ). The construction will take place over the next 2 years. Converting The improvement in sales and EBITDA was primarily driven by the growth in volumes (+4% in msf vs. Q1 2011). This recovery is mainly a reflection of the favorable seasonal effect in the Maritimes and the rebound in the produce market in Canada. As expected, we closed our plant in Leominster (Massachusetts) in May. The production of this unit was gradually redirected to the plant of Thompson, as well as to other Norampac plants in northeastern United States (Schenectady, New York City and Lancaster, NY). Thisclosure has had an important impact on the shipments but a small positive effect on profitability in the quarter. It is also important to note that the converting operations benefited from a decline in their main cost, the linerboard and medium, due to the stronger Canadian dollar. This helped to offset chemical cost inflation. 1 Equals to 2,780 million square feet (msf), $1,213 CAN/s.t. and $1,253US/s.t. respectively in Q2 2011, and 2,667 million square feet (msf), $1,212 CAN/s.t. and $1,229 US/s.t. respectively in Q EBITDA excluding specific items. 19

20 PACKAGING SPECIALTY PRODUCTS Sales EBITDA EBITDA margins Shipments Avg. Selling price Avg. Selling price (in millions $) (in millions $) (% of sales) (in thousands s.t.) (CAN$/s.t.) (US$/s.t.) Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Industrial Packaging % 7% Consumer Product Packaging % -% Specialty Papers % -% Recovery and Recycling % 5% Others and eliminations (3) (2) (2) ( 4) % 3% Industrial Packaging The stability of the results is mainly due to a slight increase in the selling price/raw material costs spread which offset the rise of different variable costs.. Packaging Consumer Products The rebound in EBITDA is particularly related to the seasonal recovery in demand as well as to the implementation of price increases in our plastic product operations. In addition, the acquisition of Norcan Flexible Packaging, a manufacturer of film and plastic bags, had a significant positive effect on sales and profitability. Specialty Papers Most of our specialty paper operations continued to be affected by the high cost of raw materials and the strong Canadian dollar. In addition, our fine paper activities were impacted by the usual seasonal decline in demand. Nevertheless, the overall profitability of the sub-sector remained stable due to an increased contribution from our kraft mill which, in addition to benefit from rising prices, improved its productivity in the quarter. Recovery and recycling After a quarter punctuated by a negative seasonal effect and adverse weather conditions that significantly impacted volumes and profitability, recovery operations experienced a significant growth in sales and EBITDA thanks to increased shipments and prices. EBITDA excluding specific items. 20

21 Q & A 21

22 CONCLUDING REMARKS 22

23 NEAR TERM OUTLOOK In Q (+) Demand should continue to improve (+) Implementation of selling prices in some of our sectors (+) Restructuring measures, improved operating rates and efficiency (-) Elevated input costs Past economic downturns (+) Cascades has generally well performed Cautious optimism for Q3 but overall, results are expected to continue improving. 23

24 APPENDICES 24

25 Q IFRS AND PREVIOUS CAN GAAP RECONCILIATION Sales Operating income EBITDA (in millions of Canadian dollars) Q Q Q As reported in 2010 (previous Can GAAP) Less: IFRS adjustments: Joint ventures (81) (5) (8) Depreciation and amortization 5 Others 1 1 Including IFRS adjustment Less: discontinued operations (109) (9) (15) As reported (IFRS) Sales EBITDA (in millions of Canadian dollars) Q Q As reported (IFRS) Add back: Discontinued operations 40 4 Joint ventures 21 3 Including discontinued operations and joint ventures 1, In Q2 2011, Cascades still had $7 M in EBITDA contribution from JVs and discontinued operations. Sales of discontinued operations and joint ventures are net of intercompany. Operating income and EBITDA excluding specific items. 25

26 RENO DE MEDICI: FULL CONSOLIDATION IN Q2 Reno De Medici (RDM) 1. Cascades currently owns 41% of outstanding shares 2. Cascades can acquire up to 5% per year on the open market 3. Cascades has the option to acquire 9.07% from one shareholder «Industria Innovatione» Cascades has a call option to buy for 0.43 per share until Dec. 31, 2012 Industria has a put option to sell for 0.41 per share from Jan 2013 to March 31, 2014 Total potential investment of M 4. Put / Call option for Cascades virgin assets in effect 2011 is reference year Paid in cash or in additional shares of RdM May represent 10%-20% of outstanding shares of RdM (depending on acquisition structure) Due to the option in place (9.07%) and to its current position (41%),( Cascades began to fully consolidate RDM s results in its financial statements in Q

27 MARKET PRICES AND COSTS SUMMARY These indexes should only be used as indicator of trends and they Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 be different than our actual selling prices or purchasing costs. (unit) (%) (unit) (%) Selling prices Cascades North American US$ index (index 2005 = 1,000) 1,109 1,106 1,180 1,223 1,234 1,186 1,238 1,250 1, % 12 1% PACKAGING Boxboard North America (US$/ton) Recycled boxboard - 20pt. Clay coated news (transaction) % 37 4% Europe (Euro/tonne) Recycled white-lined chipboard (GD2) index % 26 4% Virgin coated duplex boxboard (GC2) index ,025 1,063 1,155 1,055 1,155 1,151 1, % -4 0% Containerboard (US$/ton) Linerboard 42-lb. unbleached kraft, East US (transaction) % 0 0% Corrugating medium 26-lb. Semichemical, East U.S. (transaction) % 0 0% Specialty products (US$/ton, tonne for deinked pulp) Recycled boxboard - 20pt. Bending chip (transaction) % 8 1% Deinked pulp (f.o.b; U.S. air-dried & wet-lap, post-consumer) % 20 3% Unbleached kraft paper, Grocery bag 30-lb ,020 1,047 1,060 1,022 1,025 1,093 1, % 68 7% Uncoated white 50-lb. offset, rolls % 25 3% TISSUE PAPERS Cascades Tissue papers (index 1999 = 1,000) 1,617 1,617 1,623 1,615 1,620 1,619 1,631 1,662 1, % 31 2% Raw materials Cascades North American US$ index (index 2005 = 300) % 22 5% RECYCLED PAPER North America (US$/ton) Corrugated containers, no. 11 (New England) % -4-2% Special news, no. 8 (ONP - Chicago & NY average) % 11 9% Sorted office papers, no. 37 (SOP - Chicago & NY average) % 40 18% Europe (Euro/tonne) Recovered paper index % 12 8% VIRGIN PULP (US$/tonne) Bleached softwood kraft Northern, East U.S , , % 57 6% Bleached hardwood kraft Northern mixed, East U.S % 30 4% WOODCHIPS Conifer eastern Canada (US$/odmt) % 2 2% Q22011 Q22010 Change Q22011 Q22010 Q22011 Q12011 Change Q22011 Q12011 Sources: RISI, Dow Jones, Random Lengths and Cascades. See notes p

28 NOTES 1. The Cascades North American selling prices index represents an approximation of the Company s manufacturing selling prices in North America (excluding Converting products). It is weighted according to shipments and is based on the average selling price of our North American manufacturing operations of boxboard, containerboard, specialty products and tissue paper. It considers the change in the mix of products sold. This index should only be used as a trend indicator. 2. The Cascades North American raw materials index represents the average weighted cost paid for some of our manufacturing raw materials namely, recycled fiber, virgin pulp and woodchips in North America. It is weighted according to the volume of purchase. This index should only be used as an a trend indicator and it may differ from our actual manufacturing purchasing costs and our purchase mix. 3. The capacity utilization rate is defined as: Shipments/Practical capacity. Paper manufacturing only. 4. Return on assets is a non-gaap measure and is defined as: LTM EBITDA excluding specific items/ LTM Average of total quarterly assets. It includes discontinued operations. 5. Working capital includes accounts receivable plus inventories less accounts payable. It excludes an unpaid provision for closure and restructuring costs. It also excludes the current portion of derivatives financial instruments and the current portion of future taxes liability. 6. The Cascades recycled white-lined chipboard selling prices index represents an approximation of Cascades recycled grades selling prices in Europe. It is weighted by country. 7. The Cascades virgin coated duplex boxboard selling prices index represents an approximation of Cascades virgin grades selling prices in Europe. It is weighted by country. 8. The Cascades Tissue paper selling prices index represents a mix of primary and converted products, and is based on the product mix at the end of The Cascades recovered paper index represents an approximation of Cascades recovered paper purchase prices in Europe. It is weighted by country based on the recycled fibre supply mix of

29 For more information: Didier Filion Director, Investor Relations CREDIT: IMAGE ECOterre