Technical and Economic feasibility study of producing chicken meat project in the province of Anbar. Abstract

Transcription

1 Technical and Economic feasibility study of producing chicken meat project in the province of Anbar. / ( ٤٠٨) (300).. (%3) ( 7) (%5) (%35 6) (%50_0). Abstract Poultry meat is the best alternative to red meat, the volume of demand has increased due to population increase and improve the level of income and relatively high prices of red meat, but that domestic production is unable to meet the increasing demand, forcing the state to allow for importing a large quantities of these goods, the annual demand rate for this commodity has been estimated for the next five years up to (408000) tons per year and estimated the size of the gap between expected consumption and domestic production is expected only (300000) tons per year, which requires increased investments in this area to ensure the needs of citizens of the local production instead of importing them from abroad. therefore, we have conducted a study of technical and economic feasibility for a project in the production of poultry meat to be placed in the hands of farmers and investors to take advantage of them and encourage them to invest in this area. I have shown the evaluation criteria from the standpoints of business profitability and profitability of national feasibility of investment and the weakness of the risk, it reached the payback period (,7) years, and the simple rate of return is (3%) and internal rate of return (35.6%) and social rate of return is (5%) and sensitivity analysis showed that the degree of risk is weak, since increasing the values of the factors affecting the project by the (0-50%) or decline the same percentage does not 48

2 have a great impact,so that the evaluation criteria and in particular the net present value of the project to be a negative value, which indicates that the projects produce white meat has high profitability and low risk, and this project is very important and we should encourage to investment in it. :.... : :. (06 0) ( (. :.. : :. 49

3 (7 :009 ). (63 :978 )...( ) ( ). : : / )).(59 :009 ).(( : : : (

4 (00 :996 ) : (. ( ) : (3 : - :. Y = a + bxi : ( ) = Y ( ) = X = a = B b a (X) (Y) a = y n x y b = X - : (8 :004 ) : (Y) Y = a + b ( t - t - ). = T. = T - (Y) : - : Y = a + bx : (B) (a) n ( x y) - x y B = n ( X i) ( x) a = Y - - bx - Y = Y - x = x -.(X) 5

5 (0 :005 ) : : - r = ( n P - ) x 00 P 0 : : (0 : ). (63 :008 : ) : ( ) ( ) : :.( ). ( ).... ( ). ( ) : :..(8 :993 ) ( ). :.. 5

6 ( ). : : ( : Pay Back period (pp) ( : (70 :00). = م. صافي التدفق النقدي السنوي. + = ( petty,00,74 ). Simple Rate of Return (SRR) ( :006 ) ( = قيمة الاستثمار المبدي ي. 53

7 Net Present Value (NPV) (. ( ) ( ) (Defusco,004:9 ).(NPV) : n CFn NPV = - K O (+ r) n t = o CF : r n. Internal Rate of Return (IRR) ( ) (54 :009. (Ayyub, 003:343) : IRR = r + (r r ) NPV (NPV NPV ) : IRR r r NPV NPV (BCR) / (.. PV (benefit) BcR = Pv (cost) 54

8 : ( : ( ) : - : : -.. (44 :008 ). : -. (46: 008 ) : = :() - : :() -. : = 55

9 : - : = :.( ) (. ( : - : NSAV NSAVP = (+ R s ) n R S Social Return (SR) - : NSAVP WPV SR = K : (3 : (96 :003 ) :. - =. Brigham, ) : : - (986:479 = 56

10 = : 00 = : ( ).(IRR NPV) ( (Couper j,003:57)..(9 : ) : = (S). (%7) (%9)..(9 :984 ).(%8.7)... 57

11 (75) : : / : % : / 0 / 6 / 6 3 / 9 4 (05 ) :..(,) 98. :. (. ( : - 58

12 (998 98) ().() (06 0) : (300000) (3000). (00) () ( ) (5) (4) (3) () () / ( : 009 (3) ( 59

13 . 5-4 (3 ( ) ( () () (4) (3) () (. Y = X ( (3 P r = ( n - ) x 00 P 0 : ( ( :999 ) :.... ( 8: ). 60

14 : (06 00) - : Y = a + bt : Y = t : (06 00) - Y = t (06 00) -3 Y = X X : : = X = X (06 0) ( ).( 3 ) 6

15 . : / : (.. (.5) : ( (50) ( 4 ) ( 4 ) % / / / 3/ / 5/ / 9/ / / : (3. ( 5 ) ( ) ( ) ( )

16 _ : : 35 (. ) ( 0) _ _ : : (4. K.VA 50) : ( ) (3 ) (80 60)

17 (4 3) : (5 : ( ) ( ) (80 60) : : : :

18 : (6 : K.V.A : (7 : :. : () * * * * * * :(). (0) (50) (40). (750) 65

19 :. (4) (80 :983 ). (40) (0) (00). (0). (%75 60).(89 :999 ) :. (300) (6). :. (0-8) (33 :987 ). :.. (30).. / (6300) 6300=5*4 * (60) : : :.. ( 6 ) 66

20 ( 6 ) :. : : ( ( 7 ) : (. (4) : 00= = :. / 0000 = : ( 8 ) : ( 67

21 ( ) ( 8 ) 9055 % % % % :() ( (50000) (0000) (%6) (40000). (750) : (. (6300) ( 9 ) ( ) ( 9 ) () ( )

22 : (3 : : : ( : %8 % %.8 % (NPV) (IRR).. (4-) 69

23 : ( () : : (3 ).( :.... :. : = 3003 = 4555 = % 6.7 = =

24 7897 = = % 37.3 = 7897 = :..(NPV).(NPV) %(50 0) : % % % % % % % % % % % 50- : = : _ + 7

25 (NPV). % : (. ( (400) (06 0). (3. : (. (. (3. 7

26 : 006 (. 007 (. 999 ( ( (5 978 ( (7 009 ( ( ( ( 996 (. ( ( ( (6 003 (7. 73

27 . 986 ( (9. 00 (0 ( 979 ) (. : - Ayyub B.M.( 003),Risk Analysis in Engineering and Economics, Chapmpan and Hall /CRC, Florida, USA. - Brigham. Eugene F. ( 986 ), Fundamentals of Financial Management,Fourth Edition. 3- Couper J. (003 ).process Engineering Economics, Marcel Dekker Inc, New York. USA. 4- Dofasco R. ( 004 ), Quantitative methods for Investment Analysis,CFA, Institute, USA. 5- Petty and others, ( 00 ) Fnancial management Principles and Applications, Ninth Edtion, Prentice Hall, USA. 74

28 () ( ) % () ( )

29 (3) % 36 % 0 % 36 % 0 (60) (60).0.0 (60) (4370) 8447 NPV % 5 (60) (394) (4) IRR= % 35.6 ( ) % 5 % 0 % 0 (60).0.0 (60)

30 (5) % ( ) ( ) (6) ( ) % ( ) ( )

31 (7) ( ) % (8) ( ) %