The world in 2017 and beyond - Populists, protectionism and potential
|
|
- Egbert Gilmore
- 6 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 The world in 2017 and beyond - Populists, protectionism and potential Dr Simon Baptist Chief Economist The Economist Intelligence Unit Citi s Treasury and Finance Conference April 6th 2017 Singapore
2 Global outlook
3 Key global themes for 2017 World economic growth to quicken from 2.2% in 2016 to 2.6% in 2017 Monetary policy divergence Cheap credit remains key support for global economy Central banks reaching limit of capabilities in Japan and Europe, where rates will stay low We expect two more Fed rate hikes in 2017 and another two in 2018 Capital flowing out of EMs; China credit risk Global economic growth US will remain engine of growth in the OECD Question mark over Trump s fiscal plans and impact of strong dollar Euro zone weighed down by political issues and US policy changes Brazil and Russia return to growth Possible sharp slowdown in China coming Political realignment Traditional parties being challenged as the leftright axis breaks down Strong impact of megatrends such as globalisation, technology, demographics etc US to reduce its international commitments Rise of protectionism in movement of people, goods and capital (data?) 3
4 Hotspots for financial risk Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam have elevated risk in Asia 4
5 Pressures of populism The anti-mainstream revolt will continue What has happened What we think will happen What should politicians do? Traditional left and right parties shifted to the technocratic middle ground Parties became increasingly estranged from the electorate Left-right divide became less important, voters battle lines were open vs closed Many of these issues ignored by mainstream parties, opening up space for populists Some mainstream parties move onto populist ground even in Germany and the Nordics More grand coalitions between the traditional parties of left and right Increase in nationalism in developed countries International migration to become more difficult Foreign investors to face higher risks Face head-on the uncomfortable debates on racism, prejudice and nationalism Put national sovereignty back at the heart of policymaking (this can still allow international co-operation), stop blaming outside forces for hard decisions Have the debate about what to do about low productivity, poor infrastructure, education and technology Make provisions for those who will lose out 5
6 As good as it gets? Global economic growth is expected to accelerate this year to 2.6%, but will then slow down in 2018 and Real GDP growth; % change, year on year. As of March Source: The Economist Intelligence Unit. China s economy will slow down US to drive OECD growth in US business cycle will turn in 2019 Japan, EU ageing shrinking workforce, tight immigration policy 6
7 Asia GDP growth India will be Asia's fastest-growing large economy over the next five years Average growth for ASEAN 7
8 Growth of consuming class Average annual growth of the consumer class ( ) Source: C-GIDD. Note: consuming class includes upper, upper middle, middle, lower middle and lower class 8
9 Swings and roundabouts: LCU vs US$ Downward pressure on EM currencies, but growing demand for exports 9
10 Ready for reflation? We forecast global inflation of 4.6% in 2017, the highest rate since 2011 Consumer price inflation 10
11 Major risks in Events may diverge from our forecast in ways that affect global business operations; the following scenarios represent the main risk Risk Scenarios Level of Risk Level Of Impact China suffers a disorderly and prolonged economic slump High Very High One or more countries withdraw from the euro zone Moderate Very High Beset by external and internal pressures, the EU begins to fracture Currency depreciation and higher US interest rates lead to an emerging-market corporate debt crisis Rising threat of jihadi terrorism destabilises the global economy Moderate Moderate Moderate Very High Clash of arms in East Asia Moderate High US introduces a border-adjustment tax Low Very High High High UK fails to reach agreement with the EU and reverts to WTO rules A collapse in investment in the oil sector prompts a future oil price shock Moderate Very Low Low High Very high risk = greater than 40% probability high = 31-40%; moderate = 21-30%; low = 11-20%; very low = 0-10% 11
12 Global commodity markets
13 Oil prices No big surprises expected Supply overhang will cap the rise in oil prices in 2017 OPEC likely to extend production deal by another six months Following the OPEC deal announcement Members have met 90% of their pledged production cuts in January and February Compliance of non-opec members with production cuts remains uncertain F F BRENT; US$/B Brent: Prices rise (US$55-57/b) in Dec 2016 Global prices will be higher in 2017, but only weak upward pressure Rise in US crude oil production and an unclear energy policy Weaker demand in China and the US to affect prices in Output curbs will accelerate rebalancing in 1H F F F
14 Commodity markets A sharp slowdown in China in 2018 will result in softer price growth 14
15 Everything is negotiable The US economy in the age of Trump
16 Trumponomics: Transforming US economy? Fiscal surge could help temporarily, but growth of 4% will be out of reach Productivity growth has halved in the US since the 1990s Productivity has slowed in many rich countries Slower labour force growth Surge in women entering the workforce in the 1970s-1990s will not be repeated Investment has been slowing for some time More regulation, weaker returns Rapid growth would be inflationary Fed would lift rates to slow pace 16
17 How will Trump s policies affect business? The biggest risk to the global economy posed by the new US administration is to international trade Businesses must take precautions The US will experience a mild business-cycle recession in 2019 Exporters to the US should be familiar with the impact of border-adjustment tax (BAT); high probability it will not become law, but some degree of US tax reform should be assumed The Trump administration's apparent enthusiasm for protectionist tax reform may lead to the potential flouting of World Trade Organisation (WTO) rules Businesses reliant on external financing should prepare for stronger dollar and higher interest rates Exporters to US should attempt to measure impact of discretionary import taxes, possibly as high as 35%; although likely to fall afoul of NAFTA and WTO rules, will prove disruptive even if temporary 17
18 Who s afraid of Donald Trump? A slight rise in protectionism will inhibit trade in The Trump administration will adopt protectionist measures targeted at specific sectors and goods within certain economies rather than a broad increase in tariffs across the board Such a protectionist rhetoric (blanket tariff on Chinese goods, branding China a currency manipulator) will leave little room for cooperation with China Mr Trump s protectionist agenda may lead to retaliatory actions (tariffs targeting a narrow range of US exports, greater scrutiny of US firms) from other countries and evolve into a trade war NAFTA is likely to be renegotiated; prospects for major multilateral trade deals like the TPP are limited 18
19 America first, more military Focus away from the US Is the US a reliable ally? More distant yet unpredicta ble force Aid to fall Iran in the freezer? Embolde ned, but might not get on Asian US allies less important Worse relations with China Politicians under pressure look to China US allies uncomfor table Foreign affairs under Trump China likes less human rights, less US action in Asia China doesn t like Protectionism (in other countries!), Taiwan and SCS stance, disregard for established norms
20 Key regional/country profiles
21 China: Hard landing in 2018? China will have a larger influence on global standards and norms Rebalancing, but not as the party intended! The fiscal deficit will widen in 4-5 years as China seeks to prop up growth by raising spending Use of economic diplomacy to dampen tensions stemming from regional territorial disputes, but only with partial success Slowdown to affect trade, investment and credit flows with Africa; domestic industrial restructuring will hurt various Asian economies US-China ties: China s toolkit Bar state-owned enterprises from doing business with US firms Deny key components to supply chains Dump US financial instruments Drag feet on new agreements and implementation of existing pacts copyright violations, IPR Media campaign against US firms OBOR promises significant boost in Chinese overseas direct investment in Central, South-east and South Asia (might prove slow to implement); agreement over RCEP appears a long way off The renminbi s value will depreciate to an annual average of Rmb7.44:US$1 in 2019, before a rebound to average Rmb7.08:US$1 in
22 India: All systems go? GDP growth will accelerate after the shock of demonetisation Others Real GDP growth (%) F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F India World Asia & Australasia Composition of the upper house of parliament BJP BJP allies We estimate that real GDP growth slowed from 7.5% in 2015/16 to 6.5% in 2016/17 due to demonetisation, but will recover and average 7.6% a year in 2017/ /22 Inflation to trend upwards averaging 5% a year in Political stability (NDA BJP and its allies will return to office in 2019), but constrained by lack of majority in the upper house Structural reforms to progress but controversial land and labour reforms are unlikely to be implemented before 2019 Fluctuations in India s urban housing market tied to money and credit growth not rising household incomes Congress allies Congress 22
23 ASEAN outlook Growth will remain buoyant in emerging South-east Asian economies Thailand New constitution; 2018 elections? Pivot towards China and Russia Corruption and conflict-based distortions of interest Vietnam Above 6% growth in Deeper ties with India and the US; South China Sea dispute Labour woes Philippines Around 5.8% growth in Environmental crackdown Human rights concerns Malaysia Budget deficit to widen to 3.5% of GDP by 2021 Pursuing HIC status under 11MP Threat of Islamic terrorism Indonesia Slow progress on reforms Focus on infrastructure and FDI China s slowdown affects local currency 23
24 Key global themes for 2017 World economic growth to quicken from 2.2% in 2016 to 2.6% in 2017 Monetary policy divergence Cheap credit remains key support for global economy Central banks reaching limit of capabilities in Japan and Europe, where rates will stay low We expect two more Fed rate hikes in 2017 and another two in 2018 Capital flowing out of EMs; China credit risk Global economic growth US will remain engine of growth in the OECD Question mark over Trump s fiscal plans and impact of strong dollar Euro zone weighed down by political issues and US policy changes Brazil and Russia return to growth Possible sharp slowdown in China coming Political realignment Traditional parties being challenged as the leftright axis breaks down Strong impact of megatrends such as globalisation, technology, demographics etc US to reduce its international commitments Rise of protectionism in movement of people, goods and capital (data?) 24
25 Any questions? Dr Simon Baptist Chief Economist Managing Director Asia The Economist Intelligence Unit Subscribe to my weekly newsletter by scanning this QR code!
The Prospects Service
The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, January 2017 Toplines The world economy remains in a stage of heightened uncertainty, with ongoing Brexit negotiations,
More informationWorld Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo
World Economy: Prospects and Risks Masahiro Kawai Graduate School of Public Policy Univ. of Tokyo Seoul 13 June 2017 Prospects of the World Economy The world economy is growing in 2017 The US Fed continues
More informationModerate but continued growth expected for global steel demand
PRESS RELEASE Moderate but continued growth expected for global steel demand worldsteel Short Range Outlook October 2017 Brussels, 16 October 2017 - The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released
More informationResearch Briefing Global
Research Briefing Global Top ten calls for 2017 Trumponomics leads the way Economist Adam Slater Lead Economist +44(0)1865268934 Our top ten calls for 2017 are, not surprisingly, dominated by the impact
More informationEconomic outlook Thoughts on what to expect in Dr. Ira Kalish Chief Global Economist, Deloitte
Economic outlook Thoughts on what to expect in 2018 Dr. Ira Kalish Chief Global Economist, Deloitte USA Strong job market Full employment Employment rising faster than needed to absorb new entrants into
More informationCredit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update
Credit, Commodities, and Consumers: An Economic Update ROBIN J. ANDERSON, Ph.D. SENIOR ECONOMIST PRINCIPAL GLOBAL INVESTORS June 2015 All expressions of opinion and predictions in this report are subject
More informationThe Economic Outlook of Taiwan
The Economic Outlook of Taiwan by Ray Yeutien Chou and An-Chi Wu The Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica, Taipei October 2017 1 Prepared for Project LINK 2017 Fall Meeting, Geneva, Oct. 3-5, 2017 2
More informationHSBC PRIVATE BANK 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK: GO WEST OR EAST. Bond Yield to Come Down, Focus on Growth Opportunities in the US & Asia
News Release HSBC PRIVATE BANK 2017 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK: GO WEST OR EAST Bond Yield to Come Down, Focus on Growth Opportunities in the US & Asia Following a surprising and turbulent 2016, global financial
More informationGlobal economy in charts
Global economy in charts Ian Stewart, Debapratim De, Tom Simmons & Peter Ireson Economics & Markets Research, Deloitte, London Summary 1. Global activity easing 2. Slowdown most apparent in euro area 3.
More informationAsia Watch. The US giveth, the US taketh away. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 June 18 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 68 85 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com The US giveth, the US taketh away Growth momentum
More informationSummary. Economic Update 1 / 7 May Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018.
Economic Update Economic Update 1 / 7 Summary 2 Global Global GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2017 and maintain at 3.0% in 2018. 3 Eurozone The eurozone s recovery appears to strengthen
More informationThe Global Economy and Viet Nam: Current Situation and Perspectives
2017/SOM1/EC/006 Agenda Item: 7c The Global Economy and Viet Nam: Current Situation and Perspectives Purpose: Information Submitted by: Central Institute for Economic Management First Economic Committee
More informationRole of RCI in Addressing Developing Asia s Long-term Challenges
Role of RCI in Addressing Developing Asia s Long-term Challenges Yasuyuki Sawada Chief Economist and Director General Economic Research and Regional Cooperation Department Asian Development Bank International
More informationWorld Economic outlook
Frontier s Strategy Note: 01/23/2014 World Economic outlook IMF has just released the World Economic Update on the 21st January 2015 and we are displaying the main points here. Even with the sharp oil
More informationGlobal Economics Monthly Review
Global Economics Monthly Review January 8 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist The Finance Division, Economics Department Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Outlook March 2016
Prepared by Meketa Investment Group Global Economic Outlook Projections for global growth continue to be lowered, as the economic recovery in many countries remains weak. The IMF reduced their 206 global
More informationSTRUCTURAL CHALLENGES FACING THE SINGAPORE ECONOMY
STRUCTURAL CHALLENGES FACING THE SINGAPORE ECONOMY Presentation to The Singapore Economic Policy Forum 21 st October 2011 Manu Bhaskaran Vice-President Economic Society of Singapore KEY TAKEAWAYS Structural
More informationAUSTRALIA S POLICIES TOWARDS PROTECTION AND FREE TRADE
AUSTRALIA S POLICIES TOWARDS PROTECTION AND FREE TRADE Tim Riley Director Economic Literacy Centre PROTECTION: TARIFFS AND SUBSIDIES Economic Arguments: Protect infant industries Protect employment during
More informationIMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook
All Members, IMF forecasts India s GDP growth to improve from 6.7% in FY2018 to 7.4% in FY2019 : World Economic Outlook International monetary fund (IMF) in its latest update on World Economic Outlook
More informationEconomic Update. Port Finance Seminar. Paul Bingham. Global Insight, Inc. Copyright 2006 Global Insight, Inc.
Economic Update Copyright 26 Global Insight, Inc. Port Finance Seminar Paul Bingham Global Insight, Inc. Baltimore, MD May 16, 26 The World Economy: Is the Risk of a Boom-Bust Rising? As the U.S. Economy
More informationMinutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Council decision-making meeting held on 2 September 2015 Members of the Monetary Policy Council discussed monetary policy against the background of the current and expected
More informationFOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT: LIBERALIZATION CONTINUES CHAPTER 3
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The year 2018 has been an eventful period for international trade and investment. The trade protectionist rhetoric of 2017 has morphed into concrete policy actions that have triggered
More informationGlobal Macroeconomic Monthly Review
Global Macroeconomic Monthly Review October 16 th, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Please see disclaimer on the last page of this report 1 Key Issues Global
More informationGLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK As good as it gets in 2018? Oliver Salmon Lead Economist
GLOBAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK As good as it gets in 2018? Oliver Salmon Lead Economist osalmon@oxfordeconomics.com March 2018 Global synchronized upturn continues 2 as trade growth maintains healthy momentum
More informationThe Prospects Service
The Prospects Service LEADING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, FORECASTS AND DATA Global Prospects, September 2017 Toplines The combination of rising consumer confidence, low borrowing costs and declining unemployment
More informationReview of the Economy. E.1 Global trends. January 2014
Export performance was robust during the third quarter, partly on account of the sharp depreciation in the exchange rate of the rupee and partly on account of a modest recovery in major advanced economies.
More informationGlobal Steel Market Outlook. OECD Steel Committee Meeting, Sep 28, 2017, Paris
Global Steel Market Outlook OECD Steel Committee Meeting, Sep 28, 2017, Paris Disclaimer text This document is protected by copyright. Distribution to third parties or reproduction in any format is not
More informationKey Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia. Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February
Key Economic Challenges in Japan and Asia Changyong Rhee IMF Asia and Pacific Department February 2017 1 Global and Asia Outlook 2 Global activity strengthening, with rising dispersion and uncertainty
More informationFUNDAMENTALS. Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation?
December 2016 Trumpflation* Follow us @LGIM #Fundamentals FUNDAMENTALS Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation? Although the cycle is maturing, global growth should hold up well next year. However, increasing
More informationQuarterly market summary
Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2016 Economic overview Economies around the world appear to be relatively resilient, with data signalling that in many countries, economic activities are expanding
More informationFUNDAMENTALS. Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation?
December 2016 Trumpflation* Follow us @LGIM #Fundamentals FUNDAMENTALS Is 2017 the year of Trumpflation? Although the cycle is maturing, global growth should hold up well next year. However, increasing
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy John Praveen, PhD Chief Investment Strategist FOR MORE INFORMATION CONTACT: Mayura Hooper Phone: 973-367-7930 Email:
More informationEurozone Economic Watch. July 2018
Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 Eurozone: A shift to more moderate growth with increased downward risks BBVA Research - Eurozone Economic Watch July 2018 / 2 Hard data improved in May but failed to recover
More informationShort-term momentum: Will it be sustained?
OECD INTERIM ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Projections published:20 Sept Short-term momentum: Will it be sustained? David TURNER Project LINK Meeting, UNCTAD in Geneva Oct 3-5, 2017 www.oecd.org/economy/economicoutlook.htm
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 20 November 2014 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationFund Management Diary
Fund Management Diary Meeting held on 11 th December 2018 Losing Momentum After a strong start to the year, global growth peaked in the first of 2018 and doesn t look like regaining momentum. Trade tensions
More informationFinland falling further behind euro area growth
BANK OF FINLAND FORECAST Finland falling further behind euro area growth 30 JUN 2015 2:00 PM BANK OF FINLAND BULLETIN 3/2015 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Economic growth in Finland has been slow for a prolonged period,
More informationMarket Insight Economy and Asset Classes December Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus
Market Insight Economy and Asset Classes December 2014 Oil Prices Downtrending: The Real Global Economic Stimulus 2 Equities Markets Feature In Citi analysts view, the expansion phase the US are enjoying
More informationThe Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 2009
The Global Economic Crisis: Asia and the role of China Elliott School of International Affairs, George Washington University March 31, 29 Anoop Singh Asia and Pacific Department IMF 1 Five key questions
More informationAsia Watch. Trade tensions risk to solid outlook. Group Economics Emerging Markets Research. Group Economics: Enabling smart decisions.
Asia Watch Group Economics Emerging Markets Research 1 March 1 Arjen van Dijkhuizen Senior Economist Tel: +31 5 arjen.van.dijkhuizen@nl.abnamro.com Trade tensions risk to solid outlook Growth EM Asia up
More informationChikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund
Chikahisa Sumi Director, Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific International Monetary Fund (percent YOY) 8 6 Real GDP Growth ASSUMPTIONS A more gradual monetary policy normalization 4 2 21 211 212
More informationStriving for Growth and Stability in a Time of Unparalleled Uncertainty: An Economic Outlook
Striving for Growth and Stability in a Time of Unparalleled Uncertainty: An Economic Outlook Joseph E. Stiglitz International Federation of Accountants Forum February 28 th 2017 2017 is not an ordinary
More informationAsian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016
Asian Insights What to watch closely in Asia in 2016 Q1 2016 The past year turned out to be a year where one of the oldest investment adages came true: Sell in May and go away, don t come back until St.
More informationUN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis
UN: Global economy at great risk of falling into renewed recession Different policy approaches are needed to address continued jobs crisis New York, 18 December 2012: Growth of the world economy has weakened
More informationFuture of the Trading System. Robert Z. Lawrence
Future of the Trading System Robert Z. Lawrence Over time, integration has increased on many fronts. Policies Lower tariffs Deeper international trade agreements Liberalization of investment Technological
More informationInterest Rates Continue to Climb
SEPTEMBER 3, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Interest Rates Continue to Climb # BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff North American economic growth rebounded in the spring. ff The Bank of Canada and the
More informationASEAN FOCUS. US-China Trade Tussle & Impact On China And ASEAN
US-China Trade Tussle & Impact On China And ASEAN After a one-year hiatus in 2017, US President Trump focused his policies on trade issues as he had pledged to make significant changes during his presidential
More informationGlobal Risk Outlook May 2016
Global Risk Outlook May 2016 Scott Livermore Managing Director and COO slivermore@oxfordeconomics.com About Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is a world leader in global forecasting and quantitative analysis.
More informationAsia Business Council Annual Survey 2011
Asia Business Council Annual Survey 2011 Executive Summary September 2011 Survey Overview Survey was conducted in July-August 2011 Response rate of 76% (49 of 64 members) Members were asked about their
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 23 November 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the
More informationPMI and economic outlook
PMI and economic outlook Chris Williamson Chief Business Economist, IHS Markit 1 st November 2017 2 PMI coverage Current coverage Expansion pipeline 40+ Countries covered 27,000+ Companies surveyed every
More informationInterest Rate Forecast
Interest Rate Forecast Economics January Highlights Global growth firms Waiting for Trumponomics Bank of Canada on hold Recent growth momentum in the global economy continued in December and looks to extend
More informationGus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist
May 218 Gus Faucher Stuart Hoffman William Adams Kurt Rankin Chief Economist Senior Economic Advisor Senior Economist Economist Executive Summary Slower but Still Solid Economic Growth in the First Quarter;
More informationECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY. Aran Ryan Director Tourism
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK AND THE US LODGING INDUSTRY Aran Ryan Director aran.ryan@tourismeconomics.com @AranRyan1 March 22, 2017 Some historical perspective Room demand expansion continues Pace of demand growth
More informationOVERVIEW. The EU recovery is firming. Table 1: Overview - the winter 2014 forecast Real GDP. Unemployment rate. Inflation. Winter 2014 Winter 2014
OVERVIEW The EU recovery is firming Europe's economic recovery, which began in the second quarter of 2013, is expected to continue spreading across countries and gaining strength while at the same time
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 30 March 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous
More informationAll the BRICs dampening world trade in 2015
Aug Weekly Economic Briefing Emerging Markets All the BRICs dampening world trade in World trade in has been hit by an unexpectedly sharp drag from the very largest emerging economies. The weakness in
More informationNew in 2013: Greater emphasis on capital flows Refinements to EBA methodology Individual country assessments
As in 212: Stock-take: multilaterally consistent assessment of external sector policies of the largest economies Feeds into Article IVs Draws on External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology/other Identifies
More informationWTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 2014
PRESS RELEASE PRESS/722 26 September 214 (-) WTO lowers forecast after sub-par trade growth in first half of 214 TRADE STATISTICS WTO economists have reduced their forecast for world trade growth in 214
More informationMexico Economic Outlook 3Q18. August 2018
Mexico Economic Outlook 3Q18 August 2018 Key messages Global growth continues, but risks are intensifying. The economy grew 2.1% in the first half of the year. Downward bias in our growth forecast for
More informationGlobal economic issues and the impact on Shipping
1st Annual Marine Money Cyprus Forum Global economic issues and the impact on Shipping Andreas Assiotis, PhD 26 April 2017 Table of contents 1 2 3 4 5 Economic Fundamentals and Global Drivers 3 Global
More informationLeumi. Global Economics Monthly Review. Arie Tal, Research Economist. July 12, Capital Markets Division, Economics Department. leumiusa.
Global Economics Monthly Review July 12, 2018 Arie Tal, Research Economist Capital Markets Division, Economics Department Leumi leumiusa.com Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report
More informationA New Chapter: US-Japan Nomi Prins. Shifting Power Alliances, Central Bank Collusion and the Trump Era 1
A New Chapter: US-Japan Nomi Prins Shifting Power Alliances, Central Bank Collusion and the Trump Era 1 Geo-Politics and Economics in the Trump Era President Trump s Washington: America First or Last?
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT 24 January 2017 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank Since the previous meeting of
More informationTHE OUTLOOK FOR EMERGING MARKETS
THE OUTLOOK FOR EMERGING MARKETS Will They Ever Re-emerge? That the global economy has failed to return to its pre-crisis pace of growth is well known. This deceleration has been remarkably broad-based,
More informationGlobal investment event Winners and losers from the recent oil price rally
For client use only Global investment event Winners and losers from the recent oil price rally Since mid-2017, oil prices have been on an upward trend. Strong oil demand growth, OPECled production cuts,
More informationExplore the themes and thinking behind our decisions.
ASSET ALLOCATION COMMITTEE VIEWPOINTS First Quarter 2017 These views are informed by a subjective assessment of the relative attractiveness of asset classes and subclasses over a 6- to 18-month horizon.
More informationAsian Development Outlook 2017
1 Asian Development Outlook 2017 Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge Donghyun Park Principal Economist Asian Development Bank The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not
More informationSwedish krona: A forecast revision
Economic and Financial Analysis 8 May 2018 FX 8 May 2018 Article Swedish krona: A forecast revision We expect the battered Swedish krona to remain under pressure as global trade tensions, domestic politics
More informationThe G20 is a sideshow
27 November 2018 The G20 is a sideshow Tuuli Koivu Amy Yuan Zhuang Martin Enlund Expectations for the G20 meeting are overdone. The trade conflict between the US and China is not likely to be settled.
More informationSouth African Reserve Bank STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE. Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank
South African Reserve Bank PRESS STATEMENT EMBARGO DELIVERY 18 January 2018 STATEMENT OF THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE Issued by Lesetja Kganyago, Governor of the South African Reserve Bank In recent weeks,
More informationSpain Economic Outlook Q FIRST QUARTER. Economic Outlook. Spain. Economic Outlook. Spain
Economic Outlook FIRST QUARTER 2016 Spain Economic Outlook Spain The world economy will continue to grow, but at a slower pace than in the past and with more risks Spain's economy has started 2016 with
More informationNavigating Asian equities in 2017
December 2016 16 Navigating Asian equities in 2017 With Christmas around the corner, it s almost the end of 2016. How would investors depict 2016? Surprised? Startled? Shocked? Few would argue that Trump
More informationGlobal Investment Outlook & Strategy
PRUDENTIAL INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENTS ADVISERS, LLC. Global Investment Outlook & Strategy February 2017 Global Stock Market Rally likely to Continue with Solid Q4 Earnings & Stronger 2017 Earnings, ECB
More informationEconomics. Uncertainty rules. Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited Investment Research and Investor Services
Connecting Markets East & West Economics Uncertainty rules Capital Nomura Securities Public Company Limited Investment Research and Investor Services Nuchjarin Panarode (+66 638 5776) Nuchjarin.panarode@th.nomura.com
More informationBusiness Outlook for ASEAN Country 2017 Thailand Insurance Symposium December 2016 Bangkok, Thailand. Clarence Wong Chief Economist Asia
Business Outlook for ASEAN Country 2017 Thailand Insurance Symposium 2016 19 December 2016 Bangkok, Thailand Clarence Wong Chief Economist Asia Agenda What are our top economic concerns? What does this
More informationGlobal PMI. Global economy set for robust Q2 growth. June 8 th IHS Markit. All Rights Reserved.
Global PMI Global economy set for robust Q2 growth June 8 th 2017 2 PMI indicates robust global growth in Q2 The global economy is on course for a robust second quarter, according to PMI survey data. The
More informationGlobal Travel Service
15 Nov 2018 Global Travel Service Global Highlights, November 2018 Economists Adam Sacks President of Tourism Economics asacks@oxfordeconomics. com David Goodger Director of Tourism Economics dgoodger@oxfordeconomi
More informationQuarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018
POOLED PENSIONS Quarterly market summary 4th Quarter 2018 Economic overview As the quarter progressed, investors became increasingly concerned about the outlook for the world economy. The perception was
More informationThe Global Economy. RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics
The Global Economy Heightened drisks RISI Asian Forest Products Summit 22 June, 2016 David Katsnelson Director, Macroeconomics Agenda 1. Global Snapshot A Two-Track World 2. China Slowing, Not Crashing
More informationChina-US Trade Disputes (II)
China-US Trade Disputes (II) Fung Business Intelligence 22 March 2018 Mainstream views among Chinese experts on a trade war between China and the US On US s grand strategy towards China 1. Some Chinese
More informationMarket volatility to continue
How much more? Renewed speculation that financial institutions may report increased US subprime-related losses has sent equity markets tumbling. How much more bad news can investors expect going forward?
More informationInternational Monetary and Financial Committee
International Monetary and Financial Committee Thirty-Third Meeting April 16, 2016 IMFC Statement by Angel Gurría Secretary-General The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) IMF
More informationCOMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MONTHLY REPORTS ON THE OIL MARKET AN INTERNATIONAL ENERGY FORUM PUBLICATION JUNE 2018 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA JUNE 2018 SUMMARY FINDINGS FROM A COMPARISON OF DATA AND FORECASTS ON
More informationGlobal MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery?
Global MT outlook: Will the crisis in emerging markets derail the recovery? John Walker Chairman and Chief Economist jwalker@oxfordeconomics.com March 2014 Oxford Economics Oxford Economics is one of the
More informationKey Insights. China Macro Pulse
MACRO REPORT China Economy Update March 2015 Key Insights Monica Defend Head of Global Asset Allocation Research Qinwei Wang Economist Global Asset Allocation Research Economic Conditions: China s macro
More informationSEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016
SEB MERCHANT BANKING COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS 28 September 2016 Higher foreign reserves and lower financing needs following the debt restructuring in 2015 have reduced external vulnerability. In addition,
More informationThe Outlook for the World Economy
AIECE General Meeting Brussels, 14/15 November 218 The Outlook for the World Economy Downward risks are rising Klaus-Jürgen Gern Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecasting Center Global growth has
More informationOECD Interim Economic Projections Real GDP 1 Percentage change September 2015 Interim Projections. Outlook
ass Interim Economic Outlook 16 September 2015 Puzzles and uncertainties Global growth prospects have weakened slightly and become less clear in recent months. World trade growth has stagnated and financial
More informationGlobal growth fragile: The global economy is projected to grow at 3.5% in 2019 and 3.6% in 2020, 0.2% and 0.1% below October 2018 projections.
Monday January 21st 19 1:05pm International Prepared by: Ravi Kurjah, Senior Economic Analyst (Research & Analytics) ravi.kurjah@firstcitizenstt.com World Economic Outlook: A Weakening Global Expansion
More informationDespite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue
JUNE 1, RETAIL RATE FORECASTS Despite the Uncertainty, Monetary Tightening Is Expected to Continue #1 BEST OVERALL FORECASTER - CANADA HIGHLIGHTS ff The latest economic data in North America is encouraging
More informationSOUTH ASIA. Chapter 2. Recent developments
SOUTH ASIA GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS January 2014 Chapter 2 s GDP growth rose to an estimated 4.6 percent in 2013 from 4.2 percent in 2012, but was well below its average in the past decade, reflecting
More informationRestructuring of Malaysia s economy Post-GE14 International Factors and Perspectives Impacting Malaysia s 2019 Economic Outlook
Restructuring of Malaysia s economy Post-GE14 International Factors and Perspectives Impacting Malaysia s 2019 Economic Outlook Yeah Kim Leng Professor of Economics Sunway University Business School 24
More informationARE THERE SPECIAL RISKS FROM TRADE AND FINANCE IN THE RECESSION?
ARE THERE SPECIAL RISKS FROM TRADE AND FINANCE IN THE 2008-9 RECESSION? Sheila Page International Chair WTO/Regional Integration University of Barcelona December 2008 Policy Brief 1 All international economic
More informationYear in review Summary
Summary Canadian equities declined in 2018 and underperformed their global peers in Canadian dollar terms. U.S. equities also corrected as the risk of slowing pace of economic expansion, higher interest
More informationCommercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York
US, China and emerging markets: What s next for the global economy? Commercial Cards & Payments Leo Abruzzese October 2015 New York Overview Key points for 2015-16 Global economy struggling to gain traction
More informationEconomics Higher level Paper 2
Economics Higher level Paper 2 Tuesday 5 May 2015 (morning) 1 hour 30 minutes Instructions to candidates Do not open this examination paper until instructed to do so. You are not permitted access to any
More informationSaudi Economy: still shining
Saudi Economy: still shining - - - For comments and queries please contact the author: Fahad Alturki Senior Economist falturki@jadwa.com Real GDP growth 199 1 F Saudi Arabia World Advanced economies Head
More informationTRADE TENSIONS PLAYBOOK
LPL RESEARCH WEEKLY MARKET COMMENTARY June 25 2018 TRADE TENSIONS PLAYBOOK John Lynch Chief Investment Strategist, LPL Financial Jeffrey Buchbinder, CFA Equity Strategist, LPL Financial KEY TAKEAWAYS We
More informationAustralian Dollar Outlook
Tuesday, 31 March 015 Australian Dollar Outlook Still Under Pressure We have revised our AUD forecasts for this year down slightly to reflect developments over recent months. We now expect the AUD to end
More information