WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK

Transcription

1 WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURES

2 WEEKLY MARKET OUTLOOK - An Overview p3 p4 p5 p6 Themes Trading Disclaimer Brink Of Bilateral Trade War? - Peter Rosenstreich Fed s Caution Disappoints Markets - Arnaud Masset CBR Fifth Straight Rate Decrease Confirmed On Friday - Vincent Mivelaz European Renaissance Page 2 7

3 Brink Of Bilateral Trade War? Markets are on a knife-edge. Investors are bracing for collateral damage from spreading protectionism. The fallout potentially could be massive. Outside a central bank s policy mistake the rising threat of a trade is the primary risk to health global growth. Trade relations will likely be the key driver this week. This action gives Trump a nice bullet-point for stump speeches on the 2020 campaign trail. But he gains little from sparking a full-blown trade war. This suggests that after a marginal counter strike from China tensions will likely cool-down. US President Trump imposing new trade sanctions against China has meaningfully amplified the probability of a trade war. China is unlikely to sit idly by this time around (after 25%/10% tariffs). According in sources China's commerce ministry is considering two steps of retaliatory action that equates to $3bn in US tariffs. Action would be a tactical punitive strike targeting red states that have broad Trump support. Elsewhere, at the EU summit, members are expected to discuss the US steel and aluminum tariffs. Yet with Trump tacking on exemptions from steel and aluminum tariffs any EU retaliatory actions is unlikely. Equity markets were lower across the board, gold is in demand and safehaven CHF and JPY were the only real gainers in FX. Yet, picking trend in FX remains complicated and markets tries to pick winners and losers from an extended protectionism. Countries with significant export exposure to the US such as MXN (help by favorable NAFTA developments) have declined yet, counties with solid domestic and lower reliance on exports such as India remains supportive. Surprisingly in this corned generally beta sensitive ZAR has also improved (marginally helped by gold trade). There still expectations for a favorable outcome with limited escalations based on negotiations. So far countries still taking grievances to WTO indicating trade relations remain within a international management framework. Yet in our view, Trump his using aggressive Trade policy for political gain, rather than actual trade balance repositioning. Page 3 7

4 Fed s Caution Disappoints Markets As broadly expected the March FOMC meeting resulted in an increase of 25bps of the Feds fund rate target band to 1.50% %. The move was well telegraphed and nobody was taken by surprise. Fed members adjusted their forecast so that they reflect their more optimistic view of the US economy. The press statement also underwent changes, all positive. However, despite these developments, the US dollar suffered heavy selling pressure in the aftermath of the decision, suggesting that investors were expecting a little bit more from the central bank. The Committee raised its growth forecast once again. The US economy should grow 2.7% in 2018, an increase from its forecast of 2.5% in December and 2.1% in September last year. On the employment front, the unemployment rate should end the year at 3.8% (3.9% in December and 4.1% in September). However, Fed members left roughly unchanged inflation projections. The Core PCE forecast for 2018 stays at 1.9% but was slightly increase from 2% to 2.1% for Consequently, the Federal Funds rate forecast remains at 2.1% for year-end but was revised higher for 2019, from 2.7% to 2.9%. In other words, it means that the Fed should hike rates two more times this year and two times next year. Looking at the FX market, it seems that investors were expecting a more aggressive path of tightening from the Federal Reserve. There was a lot of talking about a potential fourth rate hike this year but according to the dot-plots, it won t happen. One of the reason that could explain this cautious move is that the Fed has started to unload its massive balance sheet just a few months ago. Yes, it will be done gradually and it will be done over many years but there will still be consequences for borrowing costs. The Fed holds $2.4 trillion worth of US Treasuries. We believe that the cautiousness displayed by the Fed could be explained by the willingness to avoid disturbing financial markets further. Besides creating more confusion on the political side, Trump s recent decisions have dampen the outlook for the budget gap, and we are not even talking about the consequences of the trade tariff increase. The US government is facing the threat of a shutdown every two weeks these days (we are slightly exaggerating) and the trade tariff situation is not helping to improve the sentiment in financial markets. The Fed is waiting to get further clarity regarding the effects of the balance sheet unwinding and wants to avoid increase the burden on the government by limiting, to some extent, the negative effects of the increase in borrowing costs. For now, market participants are more focus on the trade war and the consequences of China s decision to impose trade tariff on specific US goods. Over the next few weeks, economic fundamentals and monetary policy will move into the background. Page 4 7

5 CBR Fifth Straight Rate Decrease Confirmed On Friday Confirming Putin s six-year term as President of the Russian Federation, Russian economy is finally approaching a stable inflationary cycle, removing painful memories of Central Bank of Russia (CBR) falling behind the curve three years ago, as interest rates reached 17%. Accordingly, Russian inflation is dropping at its historical low. February 2018 Consumer Price Index is estimated at 2.20%, a level never seen before, laying well below CBR s 4% inflation target and approaching neutral monetary policy. Reinforced by recent January Trade Balance estimated at USD 17 billion (consensus: USD 13.9 billion), its highest level since August 31st 2014, an unemployment rate at historical lows (5%) and February 2018 real wage growth of 9.70% (consensus: 6%), the CBR took the decision on Friday to reduce its policy rate by 25 basis points, given at 7.25%, a 2.75% decrease from one year ago. On economic activity side, we see a growing potential coming from industrial production growth, estimated at 1.50% as of February 2018, boosted by manufacturing activities and particularly electricity, gas and water supply that recovers from negative figures since last September 2017, supported by upward pressures on oil initiated in June Based on our base scenario, we estimate Russian real GDP to grow by 1.70%, adding up with three additional rate cuts implemented by the CBR until the end of the year, approaching the 6.50% range. As trade tensions are starting to take off since the beginning of the year, we maintain a prudent stance as to the evolution of USD/RUB due to current trade policy uncertainties. Our expectations are USD/RUB to trade along the 57 range in the short-term, witnessing a slight weakness on the greenback. Page 5 7

6 Themes Trading European Renaissance Why? Believe it or not, the eurozone s 19 member countries are experiencing an economic renaissance. Growth in the EU this year is expected to be the fastest for seven years, supported by lower unemployment and higher consumer spending. Momentum is now outpacing the UK and even the USA. Europe s early-to-mid stage economic recovery continues full steam ahead in spite of uncertainties around domestic elections, Brexit negotiations and general jitters around stocks. Pro-EU election results in the Netherlands, France and Germany suggest faster unification, thereby lowering political risk something that has hurt investor sentiment in the past. The favorable political landscape (with Italy unlikely to derail the EU experiment), the positive monetary environment and cheaper valuations than US stocks will support Europe s cyclical sectors. What? Sustained above-trend economic expansion, a steady earnings outlook and rating upgrades continue to support purchases of so-called cyclical stocks. This theme focuses on European companies that are sensitive to business and economic cycles. Cyclical companies considered to be highly dependent on the economic and see profits increase in an upturn. In addition, we have added companies that are expected to benefit from tighter ECB monetary policy and higher interest rates while withstanding the impact of a stronger euro. Takeaways: Investors optimistic about the outlook for Europe should take a look at this theme. Historically, investment in European equities has lacked the euphoria of US equities in spite of offering substantial upside potential. European Renaissance is available for trading at : Page 6 7

7 DISCLAIMER While every effort has been made to ensure that the data quoted and used for the research behind this document is reliable, there is no guarantee that it is correct, and Swissquote Bank and its subsidiaries can accept no liability whatsoever in respect of any errors or omissions, or regarding the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein. This document does not constitute a recommendation to sell and/or buy any financial products and is not to be considered as a solicitation and/or an offer to enter into any transaction. This document is a piece of economic research and is not intended to constitute investment advice, nor to solicit dealing in securities or in any other kind of investments. Although every investment involves some degree of risk, the risk of loss trading off-exchange forex contracts can be substantial. Therefore if you are considering trading in this market, you should be aware of the risks associated with this product so you can make an informed decision prior to investing. The material presented here is not to be construed as trading advice or strategy. Swissquote Bank makes a strong effort to use reliable, expansive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. In addition, we have no obligation to notify you when opinions or data in this material change. Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other instruments. This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or appropriate to a recipient s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. It is published solely for information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information contained herein, except with respect to information concerning Swissquote Bank, its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor is it intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. Swissquote Bank does not undertake that investors will obtain profits, nor will it share with investors any investment profits nor accept any liability for any investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment decisions. The report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Any opinions expressed in this report are for information purpose only and are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other business areas or groups of Swissquote Bank as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Swissquote Bank shall not be bound or liable for any transaction, result, gain or loss, based on this report, in whole or in part. Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Swissquote Bank Strategy Desk. The analysis contained herein is based on numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. Swissquote Bank is under no obligation to update or keep current the information contained herein and not liable for any result, gain or loss, based on this information, in whole or in part. Swissquote Bank specifically prohibits the redistribution of this material in whole or in part without the written permission of Swissquote Bank and Swissquote Bank accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect. Swissquote Bank All rights reserved. Page 7 7