Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explana9ons, Puzzles, and Policies d Jason Furman Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers
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1 Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explana9ons, Puzzles, and Policies d Jason Furman Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers Progressive Policy Ins9tute September 3, 215
2 Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; Bureau of Labor Sta>s>cs. Real Business Investment Has Slowed, Despite Strength of the Recovery Real Business Fixed Investment and Nonfarm Employment 4- Quarter Percent Change Real Business Fixed Investment (left axis) 4- Quarter Percent Change 215:Q2 Nonfarm Employment (right axis)
3 Investment is Below its Pre- Recession Trend Across the Advanced Economies Business Fixed Investment Across Advanced Economies Log Index, 199= Linear Trend Actual Structures Investment Across Advanced Economies Log Index, 199= Equipment Investment Across Advanced Economies Log Index, 199= Actual Linear Trend Residential Investment Across Advanced Economies Log Index, 199= Actual Linear Trend Actual Linear Trend Note: The figure, modeled on IMF (215), presents data for 28 advanced economies: Australia, Austria, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Singapore, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom, and United States. Source: Interna>onal Monetary Fund; na>onal authori>es via Haver analy>cs. 2
4 Business Fixed Investment has Driven the Reduc9on in Investment Growth Across Advanced Economies Average Percent Deviation from Spring 27 Forecasts Decomposition of the Investment Slump, Public Residential Business Total - 35 Advanced Economies United States United Kingdom Japan Peripheral Euro Area Core Euro Area Other Note: The figure shows the devia>on of investment between 28 and 214 from forecasts made in the spring of 27. The black squares indicate the average percent devia>on of total investment. The divided into different colored segments show the contribu>on of the components of investment business, residen>al, and public to the devia>on. Public sector contribu>ons to residen>al and nonresiden>al investment are excluded from these categories when data for these contribu>ons are available. The Peripheral Euro Area category includes Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain. The Core Euro Area category includes the rest of the Euro Area economies in the list of 28 advanced economies included in the note to the previous figure. Source: Interna>onal Monetary Fund (Fiscal Monitor database); Consensus Economics; na>onal authori>es via Haver Analy>cs. 3
5 Equipment and Structures Investment Slowed While Intellectual Property Products Investment Accelerated Contributions to Real Business Fixed Investment Growth Percentage Points, Annual Rate 1 Equipment Structures IP Total Business Fixed Investment Growth 2-2 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; CEA calcula>ons. 29:Q4-211:Q4 211:Q4-214:Q4 214:Q4-215:Q2 4
6 Slower Investment Growth in 215 is En9rely ASributable to the Collapse in Drilling Investment Contribution to Real GDP Growth from Select Components of Business Investment, Percentage Points, Annual Rate Business Fixed Investment (excluding Drilling) :H1..1 Drilling Note: Drilling refers to the mining explora>on, shacs, and wells category of investment in the Na>onal Income and Product Accounts. All growth rates and contribu>ons are Q4/Q4, except 215:H1, which is 215:Q2/214:Q4. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; CEA calcula>ons
7 Current Rates of Investment Growth are in Line with the Path of Overall Output Growth 8 6 Real GDP and Business Fixed Investment 4- Quarter Percent Change 1 GDP (Left Axis) 4- Quarter Percent Change :Q Investment (Right Axis) Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
8 Business Outlook has Improved in Recent Years, Despite Claims of Uncertainty Business Outlook, Next Six Months Net Percent Expecting Increase 7 General Activity 6 Expectations (Regional Manufacturers, left axis) 5 Diffusion Index 14 Economic Outlook 12 (CEOs, right axis) :Q Sales Expectations (Small Businesses, left axis) Note: The general ac>vity expecta>ons of regional manufacturers is the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia s Future General Ac>vity Index. The small business sales expecta>ons index is the Na>onal Federa>on of Independent Business s Small Business Op>mism Index. The CEO sen>ment index is the CEO Economic Outlook Survey Diffusion Index, for which readings above 5 indicate expansion. Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; Na>onal Federa>on of Independent Business; and Business Roundtable
9 Corporate Bond Spreads and Policy Uncertainty Have Largely Recovered from the Crisis Measures of Economic Uncertainty Index (21-27 Average = 1) VIX Market Volatility Index Economic Policy Uncertainty Index Aug Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Chicago Board Op>ons Exchange; "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty". (212). Scoj R. Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steve Davis. Stanford mimeo. 8
10 Gross Investment as a Share of GDP has Fallen Since the Great Recession Percent of Gross Domestic Product 3 25 Gross and Net Investment Gross Domestic Investment 215:Q Averages 1 Note: Shading denotes recession. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. Domestic 5 Investment Net of Depreciation
11 Equity Returns Have Grown More Highly Skewed Distribution of Annual Returns on Equity Across S&P 5 Count of Firms with Given Return on Equity Return on Equity (Percent) Note: The annual return to common equity is displayed for the stated year (i.e or 214) for all members of the S&P 5 as of the last week of May the following year (i.e or 215). The distribu>on of returns covers all members of the S&P 5 in the year indicated and buckets firms by single percentage- point intervals, smoothed by averaging over five percentage- point intervals. The tail ends of the distribu>on (above or below a 6 percent or 2 percent return on equity, respec>vely) were trimmed for op>cal clarity. Source: Bloomberg Professional Service; CEA calcula>ons. 1
12 Deciphering Quality Improvements for Calcula9ng Price Changes is Challenging Change in Nominal Business Investment Percent Change, Annual Rate 8 Real Investment Investment Prices Note: Investment prices reflect the implicit deflator for private nonresiden>al fixed investment. The deflator was calculated by dividing real private nonresiden>al fixed investment in chained 29 dollars by nominal private nonresiden>al fixed investment. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; CEA calcula>ons. 11
13 Reduced Capital Deepening Accounts for Two- Thirds of Reduc9on in Produc9vity Growth Since Crisis Sources of Productivity Growth, vs Percentage Points, Annual Rate Labor Composition Capital Intensity Total Factor Productivity Note: Displayed series are the contribu>ons to labor produc>vity growth in the private nonfarm business sector. Source: Bureau of Labor Sta>s>cs; CEA calcula>ons
14 The President s Agenda to Increase the Quan9ty and Quality of Investment Relieve the Sequester Public R&D Investment Public Infrastructure Investment Business Tax Reform Suppor9ng Innova9on Suppor9ng Manufacturing Suppor9ng Small Businesses High- Standards Free Trade Agreements 13
15 Business Investment in the United States: Facts, Explana9ons, Puzzles, and Policies d Jason Furman Chairman, Council of Economic Advisers Progressive Policy Ins9tute September 3, 215
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