HG Infra Engineering Ltd.

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1 Recommendation Subscribe BACKGROUND Price Band Rs.263 Rs.270 Incorporated in 2003, HG Infra Engineering Ltd mainly provides Bidding Date Book Running Lead Manager Registrar Sector February SBI Capital Markets, HDFC Bank Link Intime India Pvt Ltd Construction Roads Minimum Retail Application- Detail At Cut off Price Number of Shares 55 Minimum Application Money Rs. 14,850 Discount to retail Payment Mode No Discount Consolidated Financials (Rs Cr) FY16 FY17 Total Income Adj EBITDA ASBA Adj PAT Lower Upper Valuations Band Band Market Cap (Rs Cr) EPS* P/E Ratio* EV/ EBITDA* Enterprise Value (Rs Cr) 2,072 2,109 *calculated on H1FY18 annualised numbers Post Issue Shareholding Pattern Promoters 73.7% Institutions 13.1% Bodies Corporates & Public 13.1% Offer structure for different categories QIB (Including Mutual Fund) 50% Non-Institutional Investors 15% Retail 35% Post Issue Equity (Rs. in cr) Issue Size (Rs in cr) Face Value (Rs) 10 Jehan Bhadha ( ) Research Analyst engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) services primarily in the roads and highway industry. Based out of Jaipur, the company s major business activities are in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Over the years, the company has transformed from a sub contractor to a prime contractor executing projects directly from ordering agencies like NHAI and MoRTH. Over the last five years, the company has completed 13 large projects aggregating to a total value of Rs. 1,675 Cr. Details and Objects of the Issue The public issue consists of i) offer for sale of Rs. 162 Cr by the promoters and ii) fresh issue of Rs. 300 Cr Utilisation of amount raised via fresh issue: i) ~Rs. 115 Cr towards repayment of debt, ii) Rs. 90 Cr towards capex, iii) balance amount towards general corporate purposes. Investment Rationale: Robust execution track record Transformed from a sub contractor to a prime contractor Strong order book provides good earnings visibility Best in class operating metrics Valuation and Recommendation Over the last four years (FY13-17), the company has demonstrated good execution skills with revenues growing at 34% CAGR, one of the highest in the listed space. During this period, the company successfully transformed from being a sub contractor to a prime contractor. The company is now entering the big league with its consistently expanding pre-qualification capability which currently stands at ~Rs. 900 Cr for EPC projects. By sticking to EPC projects historically and avoiding BOT and HAM, the company ensured that it utilizes its capital optimally which is evident from the company s best in class return ratios. With an order book of Rs Cr (3.5x FY17 Sales) the company offers strong growth visibility for coming years. At the given upper price band of Rs. 270, HG Infra Engineering is being offered at PE of 35.7x / 30.0x its FY17 / H1FY18 annualised EPS and EV/EBITDA of 16.2x / 13.2x its FY17 / H1FY18 annualised EBITDA. We recommend subscribing to the issue from a long term perspective. Financial Snapshot FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Revenues Growth -22% 103% 42% EBIDTA EBITDA Margins 10.8% 12.0% 10.5% 11.4% 14.1% PAT Growth -46% 227% 63% Rs * Rs * Rs Note: * = Annualised Source: Company data, NB Research 1

2 Investment Rationale Robust execution track record driven by strong promoter background During the past 5 years, when most road infra companies have been grappling with issues of high leverage and slow execution owing to legacy stuck projects, the company has demonstrated robust execution skills and has witnessed its revenues grow from Rs. 324 Cr in FY13 to Rs Cr in FY17, a CAGR of 34%, one of the highest among the listed road companies. The management team of the company is well experienced in the construction industry. In particular, Mr. Harendra Singh Choudhary (CMD), Mr. Vijendra Singh Choudhary (W.T.Director) and Mr. Girish Pal Choudhary (Non ED) have 23 years of experience each in the infrastructure development sector, and have been instrumental in driving the company s growth since inception. Infact, the company was formed upon the conversion from a partnership firm run by the promoters itself in Transformed from a sub contractor to a prime contractor; improving pre-qualification credentials to pave way for bidding large orders The company was traditionally a sub contractor for companies like Tata Projects, L&T, IRB-Modern Road Makers to name a few. The company was recognized by L&T in 2012 as the most quality conscious contractor and received an appreciation letter for the same. Over the last few years, the company has transformed from a sub contractor to a prime contractor executing projects directly from ordering agencies like NHAI and MoRTH. The ratio of sub contracting : prime contracting has reversed from 70:30 in FY13 to 30:70 today. Execution of projects from public sector clients has thus increased to 73% in FY17 from 54% in FY15. Public sector clients include NHAI, PWD, MES and Jaipur Development Authority and together make of for ~68% of the company s outstanding order book. Today, the company is pre-qualified to bid independently on an annual basis for bids by NHAI and MoRTH for contract values of up to ~Rs. 900 Cr for EPC and ~Rs. 700 Cr for HAM. Focus on EPC has enabled company to attain best in class return ratios; Selective bidding for HAM in future to optimize portfolio Given the smaller scale of the company over the last few years and the high financial commitments required in BOT (earlier) and HAM (now), the company stuck to its core competence in EPC and benefitted from the changing government focus towards HAM and EPC from BOT earlier. During FY12 and FY13, 100% of the projects were under BOT, while in FY17 only 8% were under BOT with 38% under EPC and 54% under HAM. Owing to this strategy of focusing on EPC projects, the company has been able to generate one of the highest return ratios in the listed space (Avg. ROCE of 24% over last 4 years). While maintaining focus on EPC, the company will selectively evaluate opportunities under HAM where the risk-reward profile is favourable. Strong sector tailwind for Roads and Highways Between FY18-22, CRISIL Research expects an investment of Rs trillion in national highways, up 2.9 times in the next five years compared with the past five years. Notably, the government will account for more than half of the investment. CRISIL Research expects investment in road projects to double to Rs trillion over next five years. Further, given the current financial crunch being faced by build-operate-transfer (BOT) players, CRISIL Research expects the share of EPC projects to widen. Given the Government s focus on improving infrastructure in India, the roads and highways infrastructure sector has huge potential for growth. 2

3 Strong order book provides earnings visibility; Geographical Expansion to derisk business As of November 30, 2017, the company s total order book stood at Rs Cr comprising of 27 ongoing projects. The company started its operations in Rajasthan and has gradually expanded in other states including UP, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Maharashtra and Arunachal Pradesh. It plans to continue its strategy of diversifying and expanding presence in different states for the growth of business. The company expects a significant portion of its geographic expansion in the states of Gujarat, Punjab and Madhya Pradesh. Through this diversification, the company will protect itself from fluctuations resulting from business concentration in limited geographical areas. Major Ongoing Projects Order Book Value (Rs Cr) Six laning of Gulabpura Chittorgarh Section-2-From Km to Km (75 Km.) 638 Six laning of Chittorgarh-Udaipur Section of NH-76 Section 1 from design chainage Km to Km Additional 15 Km. top layer & RE wall, Road Furniture, Street Light (Ch to Ch ) Rehabilitation and Up-gradation of Nagpur-Katol-Warud State Highway From Existing Km (End of Katol bypass) To Km (Warud upto joint junction) [Design Km To Km ] 312 From Two lane with paved shoulder in the state of Maharashtra on EPC Mode Rehabilitation and Up-gradation of Nandurbar (Near Kolde)- Prakasha-Sahada-Khetia ( SH-4 &SH-5) State Highway from existing km of SH 5,(Kolde) to km (Khetia) Design km to 298 km ] to Two lane with paved shoulders/4 lane in the State of Maharashtra on Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC) Basis Contract Source: Company Data Source: Company Data Risks Geographic concentration in two states - ~96% of the company s order book emanates from Maharashtra & Rajasthan. Any adverse development in these regions could impact the company. Political risk In the event of a change in government at the centre, the development focus on roads and highways as witnessed subsequent to 2014, stands a risk of getting diluted. 3

4 Valuation and Reccomendation We have compared HG Infra Engineering to companies with a dominant presence in roads and highways. We have used standalone financials for the peer group in order to have a like to like comparison as most of them also have exposure to BOT & HAM projects. Best in class operating metrics FY17 Standalone Figures (Rs Cr) Sales D/E W.C. Cycle Gross Block Turns Total Asset Turns EBITDA Margins ROCE Order Book / Sales EPS KNR Costruction % 19.6% Dilip Buildcon % 19.4% PNC Infratech % 13.7% Sadbhav Engg % 11.2% Ashoka Buildcon % 13.4% AVG of all % 15.4% AVG - KNR & Dilip % 19.5% HG Infra* % 25.9% Source: Company Data, Nirmal Bang Research *: Consolidated Nos. for HG Infra as it has JVs executing EPC work Note: Order Book / Sales ratio is as on Q3FY18 Over the last four years (FY13-17), the company has demonstrated good execution skills with revenues growing at 34% CAGR, one of the highest in the listed space. During this period, the company successfully transformed from being a sub contractor to a prime contractor. The company is now entering the big league with its consistently expanding pre-qualification capability which currently stands at ~Rs. 900 Cr for EPC projects. By sticking to EPC projects historically, the company ensured that it utilizes its capital optimally which is evident from the company s best in classes return ratios. With an order book of Rs Cr (3.5x FY17 Sales) the company offers strong growth visibility for coming years. On the valuation front, at the given upper price band of Rs. 270, HG Infra Engineering is being offered at PE of 35.7x / 30.0x its FY17 / H1FY18 annualised EPS and EV / EBITDA of 16.2x / 13.2x its FY17 / H1FY18 annualised EBITDA. We recommend subscribing to the issue from a long term perspective. FY17 PE 4

5 Financials P&L (Rs. Cr) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Balance Sheet (Rs. Cr) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Revenues Share Capital % Growth 46% -22% 103% 42% 8%* Reserve & Surplus COGS + Contr. Exp Networth % of Revenues 84.0% 81.2% 83.2% 83.7% 79.0% Total Loans Employee Cost Long term provisions % of Revenues 4.5% 5.7% 4.0% 3.9% 5.7% Other long term Liab Other expenses Deffered Tax Liab % of Revenues 0.7% 1.1% 2.2% 1.0% 1.1% Trade payable EBITDA Advances fm customers EBITDA Margin 10.8% 12.0% 10.5% 11.4% 14.1% Other Current Liab % Growth 13% -14% 78% 54% 33%* Short term provisions Depreciation Total Current Liab Other Income Total Equity & Liab Interest Fixed Assets & CWIP PBT Deferred Tax Asset Tax Long term Advances Tax rate 33% 32% 35% 38% 35% Other non Curr. assets PAT Cash & Bank Adj. PAT Margin 3.6% 2.5% 4.1% 4.7% 5.2% Inventories % Growth 27% -46% 227% 63% 19%* Debtors EPS (Post Issue) * Short term Advances Performance Ratio FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Other Current assets EBITDA Margin (%) 10.8% 12.0% 10.5% 11.4% 14.1% Total Assets PAT Margin (%) 3.6% 2.5% 4.1% 4.7% 5.2% Cash Flow (Rs. Cr) FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 ROE (%) 22% 11% 25% 28% 29%* EBITDA ROCE (%) 26% 19% 25% 26% 22%* Adj. for Restatement (9) (3) D/E (x) Op. profit before WC Sales Growth (%) 46% -22% 103% 42% 8%* Change in WC 6 18 (39) (56) (69) EBITDA Growth (% 13% -14% 78% 54% 33%* Less: Tax (9.5) (24) (15) (7) (9) PAT Growth (%) 27% -46% 227% 63% 19%* CF from operations Turnover Ratios FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Addition to assets (1) (17) (61) (109) (136) Debtors Days * Investments (4) (1) (7) (8) (16) Creditors Days * Interest Income Inventory Days * CF from Investing (3) (17) (66) (114) (151) Asset Turnover (x) * Change in share capital 3 Valuation Ratio FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 H1FY18 Change in borrowings (47) (31) Price/Earnings (x) * Interest paid (14) (16) (16) (19) (14) EV/EBITDA (x) * CF from Financing (34) (15) Price/BV (x) * Net Change in cash 1 2 (0) 13 (14) Mkt cap/sales (x) * Cash at beginning EV/Sales (x) * Cash at end Source: Company Data, Nirmal Bang Research * Denotes Annualised Figures 5

6 Disclosure: This Report is published by Nirmal Bang Securities Private Limited (hereinafter referred to as NBSPL ) for private circulation. NBSPL is a registered Research Analyst under SEBI (Research Analyst) Regulations, 2014 having Registration no. INH NBSPL is also a registered Stock Broker with National Stock Exchange of India Limited and BSE Limited in cash and derivatives segments. It is also a registered Portfolio Manager having registration no as INP NBSPL has other business divisions with independent research teams separated by Chinese walls, and therefore may, at times, have different or contrary views on stocks and markets. NBSPL or its associates have not been debarred / suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority for accessing / dealing in securities Market. NBSPL, its associates or analyst or his relatives do not hold any financial interest in the subject company. NBSPL or its associates or Analyst do not have any conflict or material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report with the subject company. NBSPL or its associates or Analyst or his relatives hold / do not hold beneficial ownership of 1% or more in the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report. NBSPL or its associates / analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co-managed public offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months. NBSPL or its associates have not received any compensation or other benefits from the company covered by Analyst or third party in connection with the research report. Analyst has not served as an officer, director or employee of Subject Company and NBSPL / analyst has not been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. Analyst Certification: I, Jehan Bhadha, the research analyst and author of this report, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflects my/our personal views about the subject securities, issuers, products, sectors or industries. It is also certified that no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research report and has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. 6

7 Disclaimer: This report is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice to you. NBSPL is not soliciting any action based upon it. Nothing in this research shall be construed as a solicitation to buy or sell any security or product, or to engage in or refrain from engaging in any such transaction. In preparing this research, we did not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation and particular needs of the reader. This research has been prepared for the general use of the clients of NBSPL and must not be copied, either in whole or in part, or distributed or redistributed to any other person in any form. If you are not the intended recipient you must not use or disclose the information in this research in any way. Though disseminated to all the customers simultaneously, not all customers may receive this report at the same time. NBSPL will not treat recipients as customers by virtue of their receiving this report. This report is not directed or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity resident in a state, country or any jurisdiction, where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law, regulation or which would subject NBSPL & its group companies to registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdictions. The report is based on the information obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but we do not make any representation or warranty that it is accurate, complete or up-to-date and it should not be relied upon as such. We accept no obligation to correct or update the information or opinions in it. NBSPL or any of its affiliates or employees shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. NBSPL or any of its affiliates or employees do not provide, at any time, any express or implied warranty of any kind, regarding any matter pertaining to this report, including without limitation the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, and non-infringement. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations. This information is subject to change without any prior notice. NBSPL reserves its absolute discretion and right to make or refrain from making modifications and alterations to this statement from time to time. Nevertheless, NBSPL is committed to providing independent and transparent recommendations to its clients, and would be happy to provide information in response to specific client queries. Before making an investment decision on the basis of this research, the reader needs to consider, with or without the assistance of an adviser, whether the advice is appropriate in light of their particular investment needs, objectives and financial circumstances. There are risks involved in securities trading. The price of securities can and does fluctuate, and an individual security may even become valueless. International investors are reminded of the additional risks inherent in international investments, such as currency fluctuations and international stock market or economic conditions, which may adversely affect the value of the investment. Opinions expressed are subject to change without any notice. Neither the company nor the director or the employees of NBSPL accept any liability whatsoever for any direct, indirect, consequential or other loss arising from any use of this research and/or further communication in relation to this research. Here it may be noted that neither NBSPL, nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profit that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information contained in this report. Copyright of this document vests exclusively with NBSPL. Our reports are also available on our website Nirmal Bang Research (Division of Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd.) B-2, 301/302, Marathon Innova, Opp. Peninsula Corporate Park, Off Ganpatrao Kadam Marg, Lower Parel (W), Mumbai Board No. : /8001 Fax. :

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