ALIOR BANK S.A. NDR presentation Q November 15, 2013

Transcription

1 ALIOR BANK S.A. NDR presentation Q3 213 November 15, 213

2 Q3 213 HIGHLIGHTS Bancassurance accounting impact Change in methodology Adopted most conservative approach 39 M by EOY 212 and 15 M in 213 YTD Capital increase Up to 1% EGM 28th of November Strategy: 216 targets Growth plan retained (4% Market Share) C/I ratio target <45% (revised) ROE >16% Fundamental performance Trading income down 25 M (low interest volatility) 4,8% NIM impacted by rate cuts (-225 bps since May 212), Loan growth 37% YoY, L/D <1% # of customers up 188k Outlook NIM improving (stable Wibor, retail loan growth) Loan growth >4 M a month Comfortable with FY 13 consensus of 231 M net profit 2

3 KEY FINANCIALS (BANCASSURANCE IMPACT INCLUDED) M PLN Q3 13 YTD Q3 12 YTD % (A-B)/B Q3 13 QTD Q3'12 QTD A B C D E F % (D-E)/E Net interest income Net fee and commission income Trading result & other Operating income General Administrative Expenses Impairment losses Gross profit Net profit M PLN 3Q'13 3Q' A-D % (A-D)/D Loans Deposits Total equity Total assets Q3 13 YTD Q3 12 YTD A-B pp Q3 13 QTD Q3'12 QTD D-E pp ROE (%) 1,3 18,6-8,3 1,3 18,6-8,3 ROA (%),9 1,2 -,3,9 1,2 -,3 C/I (%) 57,2 61, -3,8 58,7 57,1 1,6 CoR (%) 2,1 2,1, 2,1 2,1 -, L/D (%) 94,7 87,2 7,5 94,7 87,2 7,5 6,9 4,4 2,5 6,9 4,4 2,5 56,6 12,4 7,3 1,8-13,6 Tier 1 (%) 1,6 56,6 12,4 7,3 1,8-13,6 1,6 Capital adequacy ratio (%) 1,5 8,2 2,4 1,5 8,2 2,4 M PLN NPL ratio (%) NPL coverage ratio (%) % (A-B)/B 3

4 BANCASSURANCE ACCOUNTING Offering Revenue recognition MODEL 29-JUN MODEL JUL 213 SEP 213 Life insurance Job-loss insurance Alior acts as an insuring party with the risk covered by the insurer Life insurance Job-loss insurance Alior acts as an insuring party with the risk covered by the insurer Life insurance Job-loss insurance Alior acts as an insuring party with the risk covered by the insurer ~8% upfront ~2% periodized 1% upfront Total fee booked lower than in the previous model % upfront. Periodization element booked in NII (effective interest rate amortization) MODEL AS OF OCT 213 MEETING WITH KNF OCT 14TH: Bank is required to restate bookings of bancassurance revenues for following periods: as well as 9M

5 BANCASSURANCE ACCOUNTING IMPACT The Management Board of Alior Bank decided on October 17, 213 on full periodization of bancassurance income. Revenue not lost but deferred. No change to liquidity position. Future recognition of deferred income from previous years (in PLN m) Decrease in profit former years Q Remaining years 5

6 NIM DECREASE WITH POSITIVE OUTLOOK NIM in selected Polish Banks Alior NIM progression Data as of Q3 13; PKO BP and GetinNoble Q2 13 5,% 4,8% 4,8% 4,1% 4,1% NIM level before bancassurance reconciliation Q1'13 5,6 3,77 2,% BRE 2,1% Millennium Q2'13 4,59 GetinNoble WIBOR rates (avg) 2,97 ING BSK 2,7% Bank BPH 2,7% PEKAO 9,86 9,5 4,7 Alior avg. interest rate for retail term deposits 3,79 Handlowy PKO BP Alior Q4 12 3,6% 1,68 4,59 Q3 12 3,3% 2,7 BZWBK Alior avg. interest rate for retail loans 2,2% Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 3,4% 4,% 4,8% 6

7 FAVORABLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOAN BOOK AND DEPOSIT GATHERING Loan book split L/D = 94,7% RETAIL % 324; 2% 68; 3% 2 983; 16% Deposits 66% Other business Factoring Investment loans 5% Business 39; 2% 797; 4% 3 421; 26% Q3' Working Capital Term, own banking securities, other Current Other retail MTG other Q3 12 Q3 13 Q3 13 BUSINESS L/D=131% 3 8; 17% 417; 3% 76; 5% 5% Retail ; 26% 4 113; 31% % % 474; 4% 68; 5% 1 365; 1% Loans 53% L/D=76% MTG real estate 53% ; 3% Cash Loans Deposits 34% Loans 47% Term, own banking securities, other Current Q3 12 Q3 13 in PLN m Q3 13 7

8 FEE INCOME PERFORMANCE Fee income split (in PLN m, structure) +15 % other 86 1; 9% 13; 13% 7; 8% 11; 11% 13; 13% brokerage 3; 3% other banking activities 9; 1% 3; 31% 31; 36% settlements 19; 2% 23; 23% 18; 21% 12; 14% 21; 22% 12; 12% 1; 11% 6; 7% 9; 9% Q1'13 Q2'13 non-lending insurance sale intermediation granted loans 8

9 DEVELOPING SCALE OF ACTIVITY WHILE KEEPING COST EFFECTIVENESS Alior broaden the capacity......managing its cost base effectively vs. Q3 12 Outlets +18% Number of customers Total revenues vs. Q % +17% HR costs -19-5% Depreciation Q3 13 in PLN m +22% -337 NHR costs % Tax and Fees Total C/I Q3 13 = 57% New Cost saving program in place to achieve savings of 25 M in 214 and additional 25 M in 215 C/I target 216 <45% 9

10 CREDIT RISK OVERVIEW NPL (%) 6,3 6,7 7,8 6,9 8,7 9,2 1,2 Market avg. Corporate Other retail 11,5 Q1'13 Q2'13 13,4 1,3 1,5 3, MTG 69 Coverage ratio (%) Market avg. Corporate 45 Other retail Q1'13 Loan portfolio structure (%) Q2' MTG Corporate Other retail Mortgages Alior Banking sector Other retail means the total retail portfolio mortgages for real estates portfolio Market avg.: ratios calculated on the basis of figures on sector receivables published monthly by National Bank of Poland 1

11 NON-COLLATERIALIZED RETAIL CREDIT RISK Tough acceptance criteria Excellent scoring quality High predictability of CoR + risk based pricing = high ROE Best in class collection CoR for Q3 13 = 2,81% 11

12 NON-COLLATERALIZED RETAIL CREDIT RISK RECOVERIES Improving recoveries on Cash Loans 6% 5% 4% % Q1 2% 1% % Months of Workout Recoveries - payments and cures discounted and expressed as percent of exposure at default. Months of Workout Months since identification of objective evidence of impairment 12

13 CAR ABOVE 12% CAPITAL REQUIRED TO SECURE 216 TARGETS 14,% 8,% 15,1% 13,% 15,8% 14,8% 12,% 2,% 14,4% 18,% 7,% 12,5% 12,% 6,% 12,6% 12,6% 1,% 1,3% 8,% 16,% 12,4% 14,% 12,% 12,9% 5,% 9,2% 12,5% 12,% 4,% 1,% 11,5% 1,4% 6,% 1,7% 3,% 1,5% 4,%,9% 1,7% 1,5% 8,% 11,% 6,% 2,% 1,1%,9% 4,% 1,5% 2,% 1,% 2,%,%,% Q1'13 Q2'13 ROE ROA,% 1,% Q1'13 before restatement Q2'13 CAR Tier-1 Q3 13 efficiency ratios impacted mainly by: Capital adequacy ratios above regulatory levels. - An up to 1% capital increase would be used to provide sufficient T1 to secure our target 4% market share and ROE >16% by lower contribution of trading results (-32% Q3 vs Q2), increase of impairment write-off s (by 18% Q3 vs Q2). 13

14 ON TRACK TO CAPTURE 4% MARKET SHARE Deposits MARKET SHARE Loans 2,5% 2,5% 2,3% 2,2% 2,1% 1,7% Q3'12 Q2'13 Deposits Total Retail Q3'12 Q2'13 MONtHLY GROWTH Corporate ALIOR Market ALIOR Market ALIOR Market APR 1,7% -,1% 1,8% -,3% 1,3%,2% MAY 5,6%,5% 5,3% -,4% 6,4% JUN 2,%,9% 2,2%,8% JUL -2,7% -,2% -4,9% AUG 2,1%,4% SEP 1,%,% Loans Total Retail Corporate ALIOR Market ALIOR Market ALIOR Market APR 2,1% -,1% 2,5% -,1% 1,7% -,1% 3,% MAY 3,2% 1,2% 3,2% 1,3% 3,3% 1,% 1,6% 1,% JUN 5,5% 1,1% 3,4%,7% 7,9% 1,8% -,1% 2,9% -,7% JUL,5% -,5% 2,2% -,2% -1,3% -1,1% -1,5%,5% 1,4%,% AUG 2,2%,8% 2,4%,7% 1,9% 1,2% 3,1% -,1% -3,4%,4% SEP 2,8%,4% 2,6%,7% 3,1% -,2% 19,9% 11,5% 15,8% 1,4% 12,1% 14,1% 117,3% 13,% 117,3% 13,1% 117,4% 12,5% Retail deposit re-pricing campaign in Jul and Aug. Liquidity steering via corporate deposits in Aug-Sep. 14

15 ALIOR RETAINS ITS TOP POSITION IN CLIENT ACQUISITION No of Alior s customers (in ths.) Q1'13 Alior Bank (incl. Alior Sync) 232 Bank Pocztowy Q2'13 mbank 157 ING Bank Śląski 138 PKO BP 128 BZ WBK 95 BOŚ 72 Credit Agricole Bank Polska 54 Bank Pekao SA 51 BGŻ 48 Deutsche Bank PBC 39 Eurobank 37 BNP Paribas Bank 35 Corporate 334 Getin Noble Bank Retail Current account acquisition 1H 213 Nordea Bank Polska 7 Bank BPH -14 Bank Millennium -52 Citi Handlowy Alior retail clients segmentation -74 source: PR NEWS Q1 13 Q2 13 Q AEX CF Branches Alior Sync 15

16 CONTINUED STRONG LOAN GROWTH ACROSS EACH SEGMENT Retail loans (new production per quarter) Q1' Q2'11 Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1' Q1' Q2' Q3'11 Q4'11 Q1' Other retial Mortgages for real estates Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2' Cash loans lower acceptance ratio Q3'12 Q4' Other corporate Factoring 661 Investment loans Q2' Corporate loans (new production per quarter) Reduction in Q3 13: lower max % rate allowed (4 x Lombard rate) Q2'13 Working capital facility 332 Q1'13 BANCASSURANCE CROSS-SELL STRATEGY UNCHANGED New production defined as any opening of a new credit account / credit line. Renewals are excluded. 16

17 DISTRIBUTION NETWORK GROWTH No of Alior s outlets Q4'11 Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 Branches Agencies Alior Express The number of Alior Express outlets will increase to 22 as of the end of

18 STRATEGIC INITIATIVES CF portfolio in PLN m Consumer Finance started in March 212 Gaining a strong footprint in over 6 locations of major retailers Ever increasing presence online (Allegro, PayU, Neo24.pl) Consumer Finance portfolio: PLN 455 M (Q3 213) +72% 264 Q2'13 +7% Alior Bank Express mini branches 173 new mini branches as of Q Plan to reach 22 outlets in 213 Deposits: PLN 223 M (Q3 213) Loans: PLN 215 M (Q3 213) 63.3 ths clients (Q3 213) % % 51 Deposits Q2'13 Alior Sync: a Virtual Bank launched mid June 212 Cutting edge technology recognized world wide (BAI and London Technology award) 295 k new clients as of Q Deposits: PLN 545 M (Q3 213) Loans: PLN 122 M (Q3 213) 455 Loans 63 No. of clients in PLN m / in ths. +1% % +29% 95 Deposits Loans No. of clients 18

19 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK Net profit E ROE 216 Loans volumes monthly C/I 216 Market share E Figures present consensus based on the analysts reports post October 18, 213 in PLN M* 215E >16% > PLN 4 m per month < 45% (vs. < 42% previously) 4% *based on: Espirito Santo - 18 Oct, Barclays - 18 Oct, J.P.Morgan - 18 Oct, Citi - 18 Oct, Morgan Stanley - 21 Oct, Raiffeisen - 23 Oct, Deutsche Bank - 31 Oct 19

20 BACK UP 2

21 Q3 213 HIGHLIGHTS - BANCASSURANCE Full periodization of bancassurance income for the production up to 212 affected the Bank s equity in the total amount of PLN -39 M. Impact on: Loan receivables Deferred income tax receivables Undistributed result from previous years Net profit current period - 23 Other liabilities 213 production affected the Bank s P&L in the gross amount of PLN -131 M as of the end of Q3 13 (PLN -15 M net) Impact on: 1Q 13 2Q 13 3Q 13 Interest income Net F&C Net other operating income -5 5 Costs LLP Gross profit Net profit

22 SHAREHOLDING STRUCTURE Number of shares / votes Nominal value of shares Alior Lux S.a r.l. & Co. S.C.A. (including Alior Polska Sp. z o.o.) European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Other Total Shareholder On October 28, 213 the Alior s Management Board informed on convening the General Meeting of Shareholders to be held on November 28, 213 It assumes inter alia voting on the resolution regarding the increase of the Bank s share capital through the issuance of ordinary series G bearer shares and the exclusion of all of the pre-emptive rights of the existing shareholders to all the series G shares. The Bank s intention is to increase the share capital by no less than PLN 1. but no more than PLN 63,582,96 The Series G Shares shall be issued by way of a private issuance. 22

23 LOCK UP PERIODS FOR MGMT SHARES Lock up periods k shares (45k sold) 584k + 124k (not sold)= 78k shares (678k sold) k shares k shares 23

24 POLISH MACRO OUTLOOK GDP growth (% yoy) Investments and private consumption (% yoy) 11 4,3 8,5 9 3,9 7 2,5 2, 1,6 Private 5 consumption 3 1,3 Investments 3,2 2,1 4,5 2,5 -,8-1 -1, F 214F 29,6 -, ,8 213F 13,4 13, ,6 1, F Unemployment rate (%) Inflation (CPI % yoy) 4,3 3,5 13, 2,6 2,4 12,4 12, , 11,1 1, Source GUS, National Bank of Poland, Reuters, Alior Bank F 214F F 214F 24

25 POLISH MACRO OUTLOOK NBP referance rate (%) WIBOR 3M (%) 4,5 4,99 4,25 3,5 4,27 3,5 4,13 3,95 2,75 2, F 3,1 3, F F 214F End of period End of period Fiscal policy (% of GDP) FX rate (EUR/PLN) 4,42 2 Public debt ,1 4,9 54,9 6 55,6 16 4,2 4,11 58,2 56, , , ,5 7,9 Public deficit 5, 6 3,9 45 4, , F 214F F 214F End of period End of period Source GUS, National Bank of Poland, Reuters, Alior Bank 25

26 POLISH MARKET LOANS AND LIABILITIES Loans to households (bln PLN) Loans to corporations (bln PLN) Jun 13 Sep Jun Sep 12 Dec Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 End of period Liabilities from corporations (bln PLN) Liabilities from households (bln PLN) 533 End of period Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 End of period Source GUS, National Bank of Poland, Reuters, Alior Bank Jun 12 Sep 12 Dec 12 Mar 13 Jun 13 Sep 13 End of period 26

27 INCOME STATEMENT SNAPSHOT Interest income Interest expense Net interest income Dividend Fee and commission income Fee and commission expense Net fee and commission income Trading result Net gain (Realized) on other financial instruments Other operating income Other operating costs Net other operating income General administrative expenses Impairment losses Gross profit (loss) Income tax Net profit (loss) Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q

28 BALANCE SHEET SNAPSHOT Q1 12 Cash and balances with Central Bank Financial assets held for trading Financial assets available for sale Hedging derivatives Receivables from banks Receivables from customers Tangible fixed assets Intangible assets Non-current asset held for sale Current income tax receivables Current Deferred Other assets TOTAL ASSETS Q2 12 Q3 12 Q Q1 13 Q2 13 Q Financial liabilities held for trading Financial liabilities measured at amortised cost Hedging derivatives Provisions Income tax liabilities Current Subordinated loans Other liabilities Liabilities, total Equity Share capital Supplementary capital Revaluation reserve Other capital Undistributed result from previous years Current year's profit/loss TOTAL LIABILITIES

29 EFFECTIVE UTILIZATION OF CURRENT INFRASTRUCTURE REFLECTED IN FLAT COST DEVELOPMENT in PLN m Q1'12 Q2'12 Q3'12 Q4'12 Q1'13 Q2'13 HR costs NHR costs, icluding inter alia: building maintenance advisory services telecommunication Banking Guarantee Fund costs IT costs marketing Depreciation Taxes and fees TOTAL COSTS *excluding IPO expenses 29

30 RETAIL DRIVEN, STABLE REVENUE STRUCTURE Net revenue split (%) Q3 12 Q3 13 Treasury 5% Business 4% Treasury 8% Retail 55% Business 37% Retail 55% 3

31 EMPLOYEES Q4'12 Q1'13 Headquaters Q2'13 Outlets 31

32 CONTACT DETAILS Please direct all inquiries to: IR unit head: Piotr Bystrzanowski 32

33 DISCLAIMER This document has been prepared by Alior Bank S.A. (the Bank ) solely for use at the Presentation. Any forward looking statements concerning future economic and financial performance of the Company contained in this Presentation are based on Financial Statement of the Bank for Q Bank does not accept any responsibility for using any such information. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted by law. This document may not be used for, or in connection with, and does not constitute, any offer to sell, or an invitation to purchase, any securities or other financial instruments of the Bank in any jurisdiction in which such offer or invitation would be unlawful. Persons in possession of this document are required to inform themselves about and to observe any such restrictions. Any failure to comply with these restrictions may constitute a violation of the securities laws of any such jurisdiction. Information given in this presentation should not be considered as an explicit or implicit statement or the provision of any type submitted by the Bank or persons acting on behalf of the Bank. Furthermore, neither the Bank nor persons acting on behalf of the Bank are under any terms of liability for any damage, which may arise, as a result of negligence or other reasons, in connection with the use of this Presentation or any information contained therein, nor for injury, which may arise in another way in connection with the information forming part of this Presentation. 33