Kwamena Quagrainie Dept. of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

Transcription

1 Economics of Aquaculture Production Kwamena Quagrainie Dept. of Agricultural Economics Purdue University

2 Production Process Fish production is a biological process There are production processes and needs It is farming in a water medium and requires managing the medium for optimum growth of the fish Understand feeding issues frequency and associated demands at various stages of production Growth performance growth rates, weight gain/ period, survival Biomass / carrying capacity Other growth parameters survival, aeration needs, etc

3 Technical / Biological: Production requirements Bio-economics Have a good understanding of your production system Volume of water being used What does it takes to produce a specified quantity of fish product? Tanks, water, feed, oxygen, temperature, etc., needs Sources and availability of inputs Economic / production costs Have a good understanding of your production system Marketing Management decisions and skills

4 Financials Know how much investments needed Expected profit levels Recovery of the initial investments Start-up costs Operational costs Major cost items

5 Economic Measures Net Returns Snap shot assessment of revenue vs costs Budgeting Income Statement Sensitivity Analysis Cash Flow Measures Net Present Value (NPV) measures future returns in today s $s Payback Period (PP) measures time to recover initial investment Return on Investment (ROI) measures gains over costs Internal Rate of Return (IRR) measures timing of returns vs costs

6 Cost Terminologies Total cost of production cost of ALL inputs used Variable Costs costs that change with the quantity produced, e.g., PLs, fingerlings, juveniles, feed, hired labor, chemicals, utilities, taxes, etc Can be cash and non-cash (in-kind) expenses Fixed Costs costs associated with fixed inputs / assets and do not change with quantity produced Land or property costs Equipment, tools, vehicles Interests charges, salaries, property taxes Licensing fee, depreciations, etc.

7 Funding the Enterprise Initial investments Planning, designing, permitting fees Capital acquisitions, constructions, etc. Value/costs of existing or own assets to be used Funding sources Equity funds capital contributions from owner Borrowed capital (loans) with interest Grants Think of immediate, intermediate, and long term cash needs (startup, operating & cash flow).

8 Assessing Net Returns Enterprise Budgeting Assumes a new enterprise A generalized snapshot of profitability (costs & returns) for a time period Specify farm size / production level & time period (year or production cycle) Items include Gross Receipts, Variable Costs, Fixed Costs & Total Costs Determine Breakeven prices Sensitivity Analysis vary important cost items & market prices to assess profitability

9 Assessing Net Returns Partial Budgeting Assumes a existing enterprise with some changes Define a base production scenario and add planned changes Items include additional revenue, additional costs, reduced revenue, and reduced costs Determine net changes in profitability Financial / Income / Profit-Loss Statements Provides a quick picture of business profitability Cash flow Analysis Profitability is not the same as cash flow Shows liquidity ability to meet financial obligations

10 Spreadsheet Models Budget.aspx Cage Aquaculture Example Pond Aquaculture Example Recirculation Aquaculture Systems Example Species-specific Pacific White Shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) Hybrid Striped Bass Yellow Perch Tilapia

11 Shrimp Example

12 Unit Cost / Unit ($) Quantity Cost ($) Sales Receipts lb ,222 99, Variable Inputs: % of Total cost PL # ,600 20, % Feed Price lb ,904 9, % Electricity kw-hr , % Hired Labor Hour , % Heating year , % Chemicals $ % Insurance % , % Loan + Interest % 7, % Total Variable Costs (TVC) $ 56, % Cost/lb 9.00

13 Unit Cost / Unit ($) Quantity Cost ($) % of Total cost Fixed Inputs: Building $ 4, % Complete Tank System $ 46, , % Water Heater $ 4, % Water Storage $ 2, % Emergency Generator $ 4, % Purge Tank $ % Agitators $ 4, % Blower $ 3, % Monitoring Equipment $ % Water Quality Equipment $ 4, % Fish Handling Equipment $ % Feed Storage $ % System Set-up labor $ 5, , % Miscellaneous equipment $ 4, % Maintenance $ , % Management $ , % Total Fixed Costs 29, % Total Costs (TC) $ 85, % Break-even price (BEP) $/lb Profit Above TVC $/lb % Profit Above TC $/lb %

14 Profitability Breakeven price is $13.76/lb - price point where the sale price covers total cost (both fixed and variable) Profit is obtained with selling price higher than $ Aquaculture is a high-risk industry, so target at least 15% profit margin. Controllable factors Management Stocking size, densities, survival, feeding, water quality, etc Less Controllable factors Input costs, input supply, prices

15 Sensitivity Analysis Variables that significantly affect profitability are survival rate (or mortality) and selling price Scenario analysis of profit margin with a range of selling prices and survival rates. survival rates of 50% 80% selling price from $12.00 $18.00

16 % Returns Above Total Cost % profit for 21/25 Count (1.3g, 14wk) 50% 40% 30% 20% Survival 50% 60% 70% 80% 22% 14% 16% 30% 24% 38% 15% 31% 46% 10% 0% 2% 9% 2% 8% -10% -20% -11% -4% -18% -13% -8% -2% -30% -24% $14.00 $15.00 $16.00 $17.00 $18.00 Selling Price

17 Cash Flow Analyses Net Present Value (NPV) measures future returns in today s $s; better at higher amounts but depends on discount rate used Payback Period (PP) measures time to recover initial investment; shorter preferred for reinvestment Return on Investment (ROI) measures gains over costs; higher % is better Internal Rate of Return (IRR) measures timing of returns vs costs; higher IRR (%) is better

18 Income Stream 21/25 Count Net Income (NI) Cummulative (NI) Net Income with Loan Repayment (NI-LR) Cummulative (NI-LR) $200,000 $175,000 $150,000 $125,000 $100,000 $75,000 $50,000 $25,000 $- $(25,000) $(50,000) Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10

19 Hybrid Striped Bass Example

20 Hybrid Striped Bass Example Unit Cost / Unit ($) Qty Cost ($) Sales Receipts lb ,540 35, % of Total cost Variable Inputs: Fingerlings (4") Number ,091 5, % Feed Price lb ,710 6, % Electricity Cost kw-hr ,310 2, % Hired Labor Hour , % Transportation Costs fish ,091 1, % Chemicals year , % Insurance % 20, % Loan + Interest % 1, % Total Variable Costs (TVC) $ 22, % Cost/lb 2.34

21 Hybrid Striped Bass Example Unit Cost / Unit ($) Qty Cost ($) % of Total cost Fixed Inputs: Water acres acre , % Cages Number 9, , % Storage Building $ 1, % De-stratification system $ 3, % Dock/Boat $ 2, % Misc farm equipment $ 3, % Maintenance $ , % Admin / Management % 20, % 1, % Total Fixed Costs 9, % Total Costs (TC) $ 31, % Break-even price (BEP) $/lb 3.31 Profit above TVC $/lb % Profit above TC $/lb %

22 Profit Margin Profit Margin Scenarios 30% 25% Selling Price $3.70 $3.80 $3.90 $4.00 $ % 15% 10% 5% 0% 50% 60% 70% 80% Survival

23 Income Stream Net Income (NI) Cummulative (NI) Net Income with Loan Repayment (NI-LR) Cummulative (NI-LR) $120,000 $100,000 $80,000 $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 $- $(20,000) Year1 Year2 Year3 Year4 Year5 Year6 Year7 Year8 Year9 Year10 $(40,000)

24 Take Aways 1. Aquaculture economics is a bio-economic process; if the biology works efficiently at less costs, the economics will also work. 2. Understand all factors affecting production and the cost at each stage of production. 3. Profitability is not the same as Cash flow Profitability analysis gives you a snap shot at the enterprise Cash flow analysis shows liquidity; ability to meet financial obligations

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