Chapter 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach

Transcription

1 Chapter 14 Exchange Rates and the Foreign Exchange Market: An Asset Approach Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-1

2 Preview The basics of exchange rates Exchange rates and the prices of goods The foreign exchange markets The demand of currency and other assets A model of foreign exchange markets role of interest rates on currency deposits role of expectations of exchange rates Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-2

3 Definitions of Exchange Rates Exchange rates are quoted as foreign currency per unit of domestic currency or domestic currency per unit of foreign currency. How much can be exchanged for one dollar? 89.40/$ How much can be exchanged for one yen? $ / Exchange rates allow us to denominate the cost or price of a good or service in a common currency. How much does a Nissan cost? 2,500,000 Or, 2,500,000 x $ / = $27, Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-3

4 Depreciation and Appreciation Depreciation is a decrease in the value of a currency relative to another currency. A depreciated currency is less valuable (less expensive) and therefore can be exchanged for (can buy) a smaller amount of foreign currency. $1/ $1.20/ means that the dollar has depreciated relative to the euro. It now takes $1.20 to buy one euro, so that the dollar is less valuable. The euro has appreciated relative to the dollar: it is now more valuable. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-4

5 Depreciation and Appreciation Appreciation is an increase in the value of a currency relative to another currency. An appreciated currency is more valuable (more expensive) and therefore can be exchanged for (can buy) a larger amount of foreign currency. $1/ $0.90/ means that the dollar has appreciated relative to the euro. It now takes only $0.90 to buy one euro, so that the dollar is more valuable. The euro has depreciated relative to the dollar: it is now less valuable. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-5

6 Depreciation and Appreciation A depreciated currency is less valuable, and therefore it can buy fewer foreign produced goods that are denominated in foreign currency. A Nissan costs 2,500,000 = $25,000 at $0.010/ becomes more expensive $27, at $ / A depreciated currency means that imports are more expensive and domestically produced goods and exports are less expensive. A depreciated currency lowers the price of exports relative to the price of imports. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-6

7 Depreciation and Appreciation An appreciated currency is more valuable, and therefore it can buy more foreign produced goods that are denominated in foreign currency. A Nissan costs 2,500,000 = $27, at $ / becomes less expensive $25,000 at $0.010/ An appreciated currency means that imports are less expensive and domestically produced goods and exports are more expensive. An appreciated currency raises the price of exports relative to the price of imports. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-7

8 Spot Rates and Forward Rates Spot rates are exchange rates for currency exchanges on the spot, or when trading is executed in the present. Forward rates are exchange rates for currency exchanges that will occur at a future ( forward ) date. Forward dates are typically 30, 90, 180, or 360 days in the future. Rates are negotiated between two parties in the present, but the exchange occurs in the future. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-8

9 Hedging foreign currency risk Suppose you buy a good of 100 from a Japanese company and try to sell it $1 in the US market. Suppose you have to pay the Japanese company 100 three months after. If the spot rate three months later will be 110/$, you can make a profit of 10 or $0.09. But if the spot rate three months later will be 90/$, you suffer a loss of 10 or $0.11 You faces a risk of future spot rate. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-9

10 Hedging foreign currency risk You want to buy a forward exchange deal with a bank to hedge this risk. If the current three month forward rate is greater than 100/$, you can hedge the foreign currency risk. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-10

11 Fig. 14-1: Dollar/Pound Spot and Forward Exchange Rates, Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-11

12 The Demand of Currency Deposits What influences the demand of (willingness to buy) deposits denominated in domestic or foreign currency? Factors that influence the return on assets determine the demand of those assets. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-12

13 The Demand of Currency Deposits Rate of return: the percentage change in value that an asset offers during a time period. The annual return for $100 savings deposit with an interest rate of 2% is $100 x 1.02 = $102, so that the rate of return = ($102 $100)/$100 = 2%. Real rate of return: inflation-adjusted rate of return, which represents the additional amount of goods & services that can be purchased with earnings from the asset. The real rate of return for the above savings deposit when inflation is 1.5% is 2% 1.5% = 0.5%. After accounting for the rise in the prices of goods and services, the asset can purchase 0.5% more goods and services after 1 year. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-13

14 The Demand of Currency Deposits If prices are fixed, the inflation rate is 0% and (nominal) rates of return = real rates of return. Because trading of deposits in different currencies occurs on a daily basis, we often assume that prices do not change from day to day. A good assumption to make for the short run. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-14

15 The Demand of Currency Deposits Investors care about two main characteristics of an asset other than its return. Risk of holding assets also influences decisions about whether to buy them. Risk is measured by variability (volatility) of asset return. Liquidity of an asset, or ease of using the asset to buy goods and services, also influences the willingness to buy assets. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-15

16 The Demand of Currency Deposits But we assume that risk and liquidity of currency deposits in foreign exchange markets are essentially the same, regardless of their currency denomination. Hence, the risk does not affect investors decision. Risk and liquidity are only of secondary importance when deciding to buy or sell currency deposits. Importers and exporters may be concerned about risk and liquidity, but they make up a small fraction of the market. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-16

17 The Demand of Currency Deposits We therefore say that investors are primarily concerned about the rates of return on currency deposits. Rates of return that investors expect to earn are determined by interest rates that the assets will earn expectations about appreciation or depreciation Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-17

18 The Demand of Currency Deposits A currency deposit s interest rate is the amount of a currency that an individual or institution can earn by lending a unit of the currency for a year. The rate of return for a deposit in domestic currency is the interest rate that the deposit earns. To compare the rate of return on a deposit in domestic currency with one in foreign currency, consider the interest rate for the foreign currency deposit the expected rate of appreciation or depreciation of the foreign currency relative to the domestic currency. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-18

19 Fig. 14-2: Interest Rates on Dollar and Yen Deposits, Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-19

20 The Demand of Currency Deposits Suppose the interest rate on a dollar deposit is 2%. Suppose the interest rate on a euro deposit is 4%. Does a euro deposit yield a higher expected rate of return? Suppose today the exchange rate is $1/ 1, and the expected rate one year in the future is $0.97/ 1. $100 can be exchanged today for 100. These 100 will yield 104 after one year. These 104 are expected to be worth $0.97/ 1 x 104 = $ in one year. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-20

21 The Demand of Currency Deposits The rate of return in terms of dollars from investing in euro deposits is ($ $100)/$100 = 0.88%. Let s compare this rate of return with the rate of return from a dollar deposit. The rate of return is simply the interest rate. After 1 year the $100 is expected to yield $102: ($102 $100)/$100 = 2% The euro deposit has a lower expected rate of return: thus, all investors should be willing to dollar deposits and none should be willing to hold euro deposits. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-21

22 The Demand of Currency Deposits Note that the expected rate of appreciation of the euro was ($0.97 $1)/$1 = 0.03 = 3%. We simplify the analysis by saying that the dollar rate of return on euro deposits approximately equals the interest rate on euro deposits plus the expected rate of appreciation of euro deposits 4% + 3% = 1% 0.88% R + (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-22

23 The Demand of Currency Deposits The difference in the rate of return on dollar deposits and euro deposits is R $ (R + (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ ) = R $ R (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ expected rate of return = interest rate on dollar deposits interest rate on euro deposits expected exchange rate current exchange rate expected rate of appreciation of the euro expected rate of return on euro deposits Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-23

24 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets We use the demand of (rate of return on) dollar denominated deposits and the demand of (rate of return on) foreign currency denominated deposits to construct a model of foreign exchange markets. This model is in equilibrium when deposits of all currencies offer the same expected rate of return: interest parity. Interest parity implies that deposits in all currencies are equally desirable assets. Interest parity implies that arbitrage in the foreign exchange market is not possible. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-24

25 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets Interest parity: R $ = R + (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ Why should this condition hold? Suppose it didn t. Suppose R $ > R + (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ Then no investor would want to hold euro deposits, driving down the demand and price of euros. Then all investors would want to hold dollar deposits, driving up the demand and price of dollars. The dollar would appreciate and the euro would depreciate, increasing the right side until equality was achieved: R $ > R + (E e $/ E $/ )/E $/ Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-25

26 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets How do changes in the current exchange rate affect the expected rate of return of foreign currency deposits? Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-26

27 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets Depreciation of the domestic currency today lowers the expected rate of return on foreign currency deposits. Why? When the domestic currency depreciates, the initial cost of investing in foreign currency deposits increases, thereby lowering the expected rate of return of foreign currency deposits. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-27

28 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets Appreciation of the domestic currency today raises the expected return of deposits on foreign currency deposits. Why? When the domestic currency appreciates, the initial cost of investing in foreign currency deposits decreases, thereby lowering the expected rate of return of foreign currency deposits. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-28

29 Fig. 14-4: Determination of the Equilibrium Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-29

30 Model of Foreign Exchange Markets The effects of changing interest rates: an increase in the interest rate paid on deposits denominated in a particular currency will increase the rate of return on those deposits. This leads to an appreciation of the currency. Higher interest rates on dollar-denominated assets cause the dollar to appreciate. Higher interest rates on euro-denominated assets cause the dollar to depreciate. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-30

31 Fig. 14-5: Effect of a Rise in the Dollar Interest Rate Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-31

32 Fig. 14-6: Effect of a Rise in the Euro Interest Rate Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-32

33 The Effect of an Expected Appreciation of the Euro If people expect the euro to appreciate in the future, then euro-denominated assets will pay in valuable euros, so that these future euros will be able to buy many dollars and many dollardenominated goods. The expected rate of return on euros therefore increases. An expected appreciation of a currency leads to an actual appreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy). An expected depreciation of a currency leads to an actual depreciation (a self-fulfilling prophecy). Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-33

34 Covered Interest Parity Covered interest parity relates interest rates across countries and the rate of change between forward exchange rates and the spot exchange rate: R $ = R + (F $/ E $/ )/E $/ where F $/ is the forward exchange rate. It says that rates of return on dollar deposits and covered foreign currency deposits are the same. How could you earn a risk-free return in the foreign exchange markets if covered interest parity did not hold? Covered positions using the forward rate involve little risk. Copyright 2015 Pearson Education, Inc. All rights reserved. 1-34