Frac Sand. A View from the Stock Market. November 2014 Frac Sand Insider Conference

Transcription

1 Frac Sand A View from the Stock Market November 2014 Frac Sand Insider Conference William Blair & Company, L.L.C. receives or seeks to receive compensation for investment banking services from companies mentioned in this presentation. Investors should consider this presentation as a single factor in making an investment decision. Please consult the last page for all disclosures.

2 A bit about me and what we ll be talking about today William Blair s Energy Services analyst & head of our firm s Global Services Research Group Energy (oil and gas equipment and services & related stocks, but not E&Ps) Real Estate Tech & Services Staffing Specialty Consulting Information Services Education Tech & Services 15 years as a sell-side analyst, the last 7.5 at William Blair What Does an Analyst Do? Help investors understand industries and stocks Use industry sources, network of contacts, conversations with management to make buy, sell and hold recommendations on stocks under coverage Help with the capital markets process for private and public companies Today we re going to talk about the frac sand industry & companies from a stock market perspective

3 Frac Sand Investment Thesis Strong Demand Growth Increase in Wells, Stages / Well and Sand / Stage = 30%+ in 2014, 15-30% growth in 2015 Leading producers still pumping 2-10x as much sand as other producers (lots of catch up) Sand becoming recognized as one of highest ROI growth components of completion process Limited Supply Growth = Pricing support (or increases) Permitting hurdles, especially in Wisconsin (# of permits down >50% since 2012) Large tracts of Land getting hard to find (especially on rail, etc.) Counties/towns making process more difficult Move away from FOB-mine contracts has increased capital and operational scale requirements Move to FOB-Destination trend dominating supply chain Sand / Well volumes requiring Unit Trains for 1 well in some cases need to have multiple days of supply in each basin to serve contract & spot market Large volumes in every basin require multiple origins to drive transportation costs lower Rail car access becoming a gating factor >>>These dynamics will drive share to a small # of scaled providers get big or go home

4 Wells / Rig Growing influence of Hz Rigs & Pad Drilling 5.40 Wells / Rig Present Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214 Q314 Total Market YTD14 vs. YTD13: +0.5% DJ/N -14% Permian +0.9% Utica -32% Granite Wash +15%

5 U.S. Silica Volume Shipped vs Land Rigs 100% Year-over-year Growth, th Quarter % 60% 40% 20% 0% Q111 Q211 Q311 Q411 Q112 Q212 Q312 Q412 Q113 Q213 Q313 Q413 Q114 Q214-20% Sand Volumes, y/y Avg. Total Rigs, y/y Avg. Horizontal Rigs, y/y

6 Carrizo proppant placement well above peers Carrizo presentation comparing sand concentrations of E&Ps Carrizo is pumping 1,500 1,700 lbs/lateral foot (5K tons/well ~50 rail cars) In most cases this is 1.5-2x same-county peers volumes

7 Logistics Footprint & Competencies will Drive Share US Silica ~7,000+ owned/leased rail cars (9,000 next yr) ~6,500+ managed rail cars 4 primary frac sand mines (will be 6 in 16) 39 transloads (some owned, some partnered) YTD have shipped 100 Unit Trains YTD ~60-70% of frac sand sold in-basin Hi-Crush ~2,700 owned/leased rail cars ~4,500 managed rail cars 2 mines (+ another at sponsor level) 14 transloads (concentrated in Marcellus/Utica) On pace for 35 unit trains this year ~1/3+ of frac sand sold in-basin & growing Emerge Energy Services ~4,000+ owned/leased rail cars ~2,000+ managed rail cars 3 mines (will be 5 in 2015) ~13 transloads (almost all via partnership) On pace for 100+ unit trains / yr + growing YTD ~40% of frac sand sold in-basin FairmountSantrol ~8,000 owned/leased rail cars ~1,000 managed rail cars (targeting 16,000 cars at YE16) 6 primary/api-spec frac sand mines 49 transloads (32+ exclusive for FMSA) Can ship unit trains from 3 mines to 3 in-basin terminals YTD ~80% of frac sand sold in-basin

8 YTD Performance % CRR % WTI Crude Oil % OSX Energy Index HCLP 19.48% SLCA 24.16% EMES 80.19%

9 Performance Since May 1 st, 2014 Stock Performance Since May 1, 2014 HCLP 12.13% EMES 7.54% Energy Index -7.39% SLCA % OSX Crude Oil % FMSA % WTI % CRR

10 Proppant Providers Comparable Valuations Hi-Crush Partners P/E 21.10x 14.30x 10.99x EV/EBITDA 33.81x 15.97x 10.66x Closest Peers P/E U.S. Silica 30.37x 20.74x 12.44x Carbo Ceramics 13.85x 16.18x 16.74x Emerge Energy P/E 67.69x 21.22x 12.10x EV/EBITDA 26.06x 16.94x 10.23x Closest Peers P/E U.S. Silica 30.37x 20.74x 12.44x Hi-Crush 21.10x 14.30x 10.99x Carbo Ceramics P/E 13.85x 16.18x 16.74x EV/EBITDA 6.58x 6.95x 6.47x Closest Peers U.S. Silica 30.37x 20.74x 12.44x Hi-Crush 21.10x 14.30x 10.99x U.S. Silica P/E 30.37x 20.74x 12.44x EV/EBITDA 15.56x 10.00x 7.24x Closest Peers Carbo Ceramics 13.85x 16.18x 16.74x Hi-Crush 21.10x 14.30x 10.99x Emerge Energy 67.69x 21.22x 12.10x

11 U.S. Silica Valuation vs. Oil Price 110 U.S. Silica Holdings, Inc. - EV/EBITDA - NTM WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 6

12 EMES Yield vs. Oil Price 110 Emerge Energy Services LP Daily % 3:02:03 PM VWAP:77.69 High: Low: 5.07 Chg: 7.66% Emerge Energy Services LP - FE_VALUATION(DIV_YLD,MEAN,NTMA,,'') WTI Crude Oil ($/bbl) Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 4

13 What About Consolidation? Only a couple acquisitions have happened yet investors keep expecting more US Silica acquired Cadre (Hickory sand in Texas; Summer 2014) Hi-Crush acquired D&I (distribution/storage in Marcellus / Utica; Summer 2013) KKR recapitalized / acquired Preferred (Summer 2014) FairmountSantrol/FMSA acquired sand assets of FTS International (Summer 2013) Problems with Consolidation All Mines Aren t Created Equal Usually can t fix a poorly constructed mine; low production costs are critical FOB Destination selling changes/increases scope of what is valuable Origin & Destination Matching key for transportation costs Filling Holes in the footprint (basins, grades & types of sand) isn t as simple as it sounds Public company volumes are sold out; organic investments create better ROIs Valuation expectations bolstered by high oil prices maybe not so much now

14 You know when the end is near. Leading-edge indicators such as wells / rig and sand / well start plateauing or falling E&Ps and Services company commentary on earnings calls & at conferences The average E&P catches up to the leaders (EOG, Whiting, etc.) in sand / well completion dynamics are still immature several years of increasing intensity Rail Car bottleneck/waiting isn t a thing the sand companies talk about 2016, maybe 2017 increasing complexity pushing service companies to avoid growing rail car fleets

15 Thank You Questions?

16 Disclosures Current Rating Distribution (as of 10/31/14) Coverage Universe Percent Inv. Banking Relationships* Percent Outperform (Buy) 65 Outperform (Buy) 16 Market Perform (Hold) 31 Market Perform (Hold) 3 Underperform (Sell) 1 Underperform (Sell) 0 *Percentage of companies in each rating category that are investment banking clients, defined as companies for which William Blair has received compensation for investment banking services within the past 12 months. Brandon Dobell attests that 1) all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect his/her personal views about any and all of the securities and companies covered by this report, and 2) no part of his/her compensation was, is, or will be related, directly or indirectly, to the specific recommendations or views expressed by him/her in this report. We seek to update our research as appropriate, but various regulations may prohibit us from doing so. Other than certain periodical industry reports, the majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as deemed appropriate by the analyst. OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES Stock ratings, price targets, and valuation methodologies: William Blair & Company, L.L.C. uses a three-point system to rate stocks. Individual ratings and price targets (where used) reflect the expected performance of the stock relative to the broader market (generally the S&P 500, unless otherwise indicated) over the next 12 months. The assessment of expected performance is a function of near-, intermediate-, and long-term company fundamentals, industry outlook, confidence in earnings estimates, valuation (and our valuation methodology), and other factors. Outperform (O) stock expected to outperform the broader market over the next 12 months; Market Perform (M) stock expected to perform approximately in line with the broader market over the next 12 months; Underperform (U) stock expected to underperform the broader market over the next 12 months; not rated (NR) the stock is not currently rated. The valuation methodologies used to determine price targets (where used) include (but are not limited to) price-to-earnings multiple (P/E), relative P/E (compared with the relevant market), P/E-to-growth-rate (PEG) ratio, market capitalization/revenue multiple, enterprise value/ebitda ratio, discounted cash flow, and others. Company Profile: The William Blair research philosophy is focused on quality growth companies. Growth companies by their nature tend to be more volatile than the overall stock market. Company profile is a fundamental assessment, over a longer-term horizon, of the business risk of the company relative to the broader William Blair universe. Factors assessed include: 1) durability and strength of franchise (management strength and track record, market leadership, distinctive capabilities); 2) financial profile (earnings growth rate/consistency, cash flow generation, return on investment, balance sheet, accounting); 3) other factors such as sector or industry conditions, economic environment, confidence in long-term growth prospects, etc. Established Growth (E) Fundamental risk is lower relative to the broader William Blair universe; Core Growth (C) Fundamental risk is approximately in line with the broader William Blair universe; Aggressive Growth (A) Fundamental risk is higher relative to the broader William Blair universe. The ratings, price targets (where used), valuation methodologies, and company profile assessments reflect the opinion of the individual analyst and are subject to change at any time. Our salespeople, traders, and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients and our trading desks that are contrary to opinions expressed in this research. Certain outstanding reports may contain discussions or investment opinions relating to securities, financial instruments and/or issuers that are no longer current. Always refer to the most recent report on a company or issuer before making an investment decision. Our asset management and trading desks may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with recommendations or views expressed in this report. We will from time to time have long or short positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities referred to in this report. Our research is disseminated primarily electronically, and in some instances in printed form. Electronic research is simultaneously available to all clients. This research is for our clients only. No part of this material may be copied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of William Blair & Company, L.L.C. THIS IS NOT IN ANY SENSE A SOLICITATION OR OFFER OF THE PURCHASE OR SALE OF SECURITIES. THE FACTUAL STATEMENTS HEREIN HAVE BEEN TAKEN FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE TO BE RELIABLE, BUT SUCH STATEMENTS ARE MADE WITHOUT ANY REPRESENTATION AS TO ACCURACY OR COMPLETENESS OR OTHERWISE. OPINIONS EXPRESSED ARE OUR OWN UNLESS OTHERWISE STATED. PRICES SHOWN ARE APPROXIMATE. THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR DISTRIBUTION IN THE UNITED KINGDOM BY WILLIAM BLAIR INTERNATIONAL, LIMITED, REGULATED BY THE FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY (FCA), AND IS DIRECTED ONLY AT, AND IS ONLY MADE AVAILABLE TO, PERSONS FALLING WITHIN COB 3.5 AND 3.6 OF THE FCA HANDBOOK (BEING ELIGIBLE COUNTERPARTIES AND PROFESSIONAL CLIENTS ). THIS DOCUMENT IS NOT TO BE DISTRIBUTED OR PASSED ON TO ANY RETAIL CLIENTS. NO PERSONS OTHER THAN PERSONS TO WHOM THIS DOCUMENT IS DIRECTED SHOULD RELY ON IT OR ITS CONTENTS OR USE IT AS THE BASIS TO MAKE AN INVESTMENT DECISION.