JSE Power Hour Positioning your portfolio for 2017
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1 JSE Power Hour Positioning your portfolio for 2017 Simon Brown 8 th December 2016
2 Warren Buffett Predictions tell you more about the person making them than the future Be aware of recency bias
3 Scoring 2016 predictions
4 Scoring 2016 predictions ü Rand > R16.00/USD ü Eskom no load shedding ü Local politics very messy ü Drought pain but rain returns Indi25 wining sector ü Top40 flat to negative ü Local GDP under 2% Clinton wins ü Buy commodities on 100% bounce ü Don t worry about a crash ü Oil remains weak
5 Scoring 2016 Stocks* * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at * as at 07 Dec 2016 One year returns including dividends
6 Scoring 2016 Commodity Stocks* ü Buy commodities on 100% bounce off lows * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at * as at 07 Dec 2016 One year returns including dividends
7 The 2017 predictions
8 Rand Expect stronger against US$
9 Government ANC 54 th elective congress ~ December 2017
10 SA Inc. GDP 2% at best but no recession Top40 I am bullish NPN is the risk Three years sideways Earnings up = valuations cheaper Bad news all in?
11 SA Inc ~ Are we Brazilian? S&P downgrade to junk JustOneLap.com/JSEDirect/ Fitch downgrade to junk Moody s downgrade to junk President impeached S&P downgrade again
12 Rain Rainfall is returning to normal Dam levels 2 years to normal Growers (TON* / QFP) Producers (PFG / RFG / ZED) Retail (SHP* / PIK / SPP) * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
13 Rating agencies More worry to come S&P MUST decide in 2017 Odds for junk = even?
14 Industrials Indi25 struggling All about NPN (+32% of index) CFR* / MTN / MRP / SNH* / WHL* I expecting bounce Construction / manufacturing Still avoiding * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
15 Financials Really good = tough but they cheap Bad debts rising Increased regulations / compliance CPI* remains the pick (like SYG but expensive) Deutsche Bank to survive * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
16 Retails The year it went south Is Cotton On / H&M damage permanent? MRP / TRU / TFG Low income households SHP* Cheap - WHL*? Forward PE 13x Last time September 2009 / 1500c * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
17 Commodities Buy when +100% KIO low 2415c Buy 5000c
18 Commodities ~ gone crazy Enjoy the run, but fundamentals not much changed US infrastructure spend? But over supply remains BIL* (energy) / AGL (diamonds / plat) / plat miners (IMP) * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
19 Commodities ~ oil Going nowhere any time soon US$40 ~ US$55 SBAOIL (ETN) OPEC is a non issue * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
20 Interest rates Locally ~ no change Maybe starting down H2:17 Europe ~ no change US ~ edging higher
21 China (no change) The worlds second largest economy Under 7% growth is still plenty Under going important transition Industrialisation è consumerisation Strong leader combating corruption ETN = DBCHIN I get exposure via CFR* / DSY* * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
22 USA Trump Closing borders Rate increases Economy growing CSP500* I prefer DBXWD* * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
23 USA ~ bull market
24 European Union Negative / low rates & QE continues Muddling along Brexit French / German elections DBXEU I prefer DBXWD* * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
25 Nationalism Brexit / Trump/ Le Pen Le Pen in 2012 came third (out of nine) with 17.9% Italy / Belgium Closing borders / trade Long term serious implications
26 2017 Offshore + local Rand strength may hurt a bit US remains global economy of note Commodities run some more President Zuma will create lots of noise Ignore it
27 2017 stocks CSP500* / DBXWD* for offshore CSEW40* for SA Tongaat* / Quantum for rain Shoprite* / WHL* for retail Billiton* / plat miners for commodities Keep your ETFs and max your TFSA * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
28 2017 stocks The beaten bunch Bounce in 2017? IPO Premier 500c * I own these stocks as at 8 December 2016 Portfolio at
29 Bloodhound Land speed record, attempting 1,000 mph (current 760 mph) Hakskeenpan Northern Cape ~ Oct / Nov 2017
30 We want you vote Voting open until 8am tomorrow ~ have your say Twitter.com/SimonPB
31
32 Disclaimer The information and opinions stated in this presentation/document/video/webinar are of a general nature, have been prepared solely for information purposes and do not constitute any advice or recommendation to conclude any transaction or enter into any agreement. It is strongly recommended that every recipient seek appropriate professional advice before acting on any information contained herein. Whilst every care has been taken in preparing this document, no representation, warranty or undertaking, express or implied, is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information or representations. All information contained herein is subject to change after publication at any time without notice. The past performance of any investment product is not an indication of future performance.
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