URUGUAY MONTHLY REPORT NOVEMBER 2013

Transcription

1 URUGUAY MONTHLY REPORT NOVEMBER 2013 November 25 th, 2013 The IMF released its global economic forecasts, raising its 2013 GDP growth projection for Uruguay, but lowering its estimates for CPI increased 0.82% in October, and 8.67% in the LTM but 9.09% in the first ten months of the year, analysts expect that inflation would close 2013 around 8.5%-9%. The monetary authorities believe that no monetary policy alone is enough to contain inflationary pressures if it is not accompanied by prudent fiscal and income (wage) policies. Highlights during the last weeks: UYU Peso appreciated 2.3% in October, but accumulates 11% depreciation YTD. BCU T-Bills yields continue at high levels and with strong demand, but auctions are being defined by rate, not to validate higher ones. In the last weeks, BCU also made direct loans in the secondary market. Government (MEF) cancelled most of T-Notes auctions, not to validate the high rates in the BCU issues, which shows a different view and strategy on local currency debt. Call rate stood stable around 15% during the last week. 1. Economic Activity IMF forecasts a 4% growth for 2013 explained by robust domestic demand, strong foreign direct investment and an expected improvement in demand from abroad. But growth should reach about 3.5% in 2014 and 2015, down from a prior estimate of 4% for next years. The IMF named persistent inflation pressure and strong increases in labor costs as key risks for the Uruguayan economy, and called for tighter fiscal policy and more infrastructure investment as a way to maintain economic growth. The latest soybean crop was the highest in history, 2.76 million tons with an increase in the area planted and in yields. The area dedicated to soybean climbed 20% and reached hectares. But the most outstanding record was in yields: kilos per hectare, a significant increase over the previous crop with kilos and from the ongoing average in the range of kilos per hectare. Corn managed the second highest yield in the last ten years with kilos per hectare. The area planted was has. and the harvest reached tons. Uruguayan Exports increased 5.4% in January-October y-o-y and reached USD 7,858 million, the main highlights are: The main exported products in the period were: soybean (23.7%), frozen bovine meat (14%), rice (5.4%), milk (4.8%) and wheat (2.2%). Brazil continues being the main destination (18.3%) followed by China (16.1%), Nueva Palmira Free Zone (10.7%) and Argentina (5.2%). Industrial production (excluding ANCAP) decreased 7.29% in September y-o-y. Half of the sectors decreased the activity in September. The main contraction was explained by food and beverages (18.2%), paper (16.9%), textiles (12%) and clothing (6.8%). Even though, the REER (Real Exchange Rate) increased in the last months (please refer to Exhibit 1), Uruguay accumulates a loss of competitiveness in the last 5 years as a result of high inflation and strong UYU Peso compared to the main exports destinations and the industry problems to access the different destination caused by the regional restrictions. Exhibit 1 Real Exchange Rate ago-00 abr-01 Source: BCU dic-01 ago-02 abr-03 dic-03 ago-04 abr-05 dic-05 Global Regional ago-06 abr-07 dic-07 ago-08 abr-09 dic-09 ago-10 abr-11 dic-11 ago-12 1 abr-13

2 Table 1 Economic Activity Indicators ( lll denote newly released data) Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 oct-13 YTD 2013 (2) Quarterly Data GDP Real GDP (% change y-o-y) 6,5% 3,5% 4,8% 3,7% 5,6% n/a n/a Private Consumption (% change y-o-y) 12,7% 5,7% 7,1% 4,8% 5,1% n/a n/a Public Consumption (% change y-o-y) 1,6% 3,3% 5,8% 5,2% 6,1% n/a n/a Gross Domestic Investment (% change y-o-y) 22,9% -10,5% 19,2% 14,4% -5,7% n/a n/a Fix Gross Domestic Investment (% change y-o-y) 32,2% -1,3% 15,5% 12,6% 3,7% n/a n/a Exports of goods and services (y-o-y) 4,4% 6,7% -4,0% -9,9% 11,1% n/a n/a Imports of goods and services (y-o-y) 29,4% -0,6% 12,4% 0,1% 2,5% n/a n/a Balance of Payments and External Trade Current Account (USD MM) n/a n/a Trade Balance (USD MM) n/a n/a Income (USD MM) n/a n/a Current Transfers (USD MM) n/a n/a Capital Account (USD MM) n/a n/a Foreign direct investment (USD MM) n/a n/a Portfolio Equity and debt investment (USD MM) n/a n/a Other capital inflows (incl. Net errors & omissions) (U n/a n/a Public Sector n/a n/a Variation in reserve assets in BCU (USD MM) n/a n/a Monthly Data CERES Leading Activity Index (Index) 219,1 244,1 254,5 258,1 267,0 n/a n/a Industrial Production (Index, 2006=100) 133,6 116,7 127,9 128,8 126,9 126,6 n/a Industrial Production (% change y-o-y) 4,60% 0,54% 9,66% -2,10% -1,19% -3,61% n/a Industrial Production excluding ANCAP (Index, 2006=100) 135,9 139,1 131,0 129,6 127,3 125,7 n/a Industrial Production excluding ANCAP (% change y-o-y) 4,80% 5,30% -5,81% -4,23% -0,52% -7,29% n/a Investment Promotion Program (COMAP) (USD MM, monthly) 213,0 187,4 367,2 217,0 130,4 170,4 n/a Exports and Imports of goods Exports of goods (USD MM, monthly) (1) Exports of goods FOB (% change y-o-y) 19,0% -4,8% 5,9% -24,6% 16,5% -4,2% 8,5% 5,4% Imports of goods (USD MM, monthly) Imports of goods (% change y-o-y) 56,8% -5,8% -7,3% -1,0% 1,1% 10,3% 17,5% 11,9% Trade Balance of goods (USD MM YTD) Labor Market Unemployment Rate (%) 5,4% 5,3% 5,5% 6,6% 6,6% 6,1% n/a Employment Rate (%) 60,1% 60,3% 62,1% 59,9% 59,6% 59,4% n/a Activity Rate (%) 63,5% 63,6% 65,7% 64,1% 63,8% 63,2% n/a Real Wages (% change y-o-y) 3,4% 4,0% 1,5% 3,0% 3,2% 2,6% n/a (1) Data based on exports requests as of each month corresponds to annual data. (2) Data based on real exports and exports requests included in October s report. Sources: BCU, INE, Ceres and Uruguay XXI. 2

3 2. Inflation & FX Market Consumer prices increased 0.82% in October, lower than September when they soared 1.36%, but were anyway above the median survey expectations of BCU (0.7%), registering 9.09% YTD and 8.67% in the LTM ending in October. During October, the Food and non-alcoholic beverage climbed 0.81%, mainly because of bread and cereals (1.31%), meats (1.3%) and fruits (2.58%). Clothing and footwear increased 1.36%, Housing, 0.72%; healthcare 0.38%; transport, 1.06%; restaurants and hotels, 1.09% and Leisure, 2.50%. Core inflation, which excludes changes in administered prices and fruits and vegetables stood at 9% in October, so strong inflationary pressures, still persists. The difference between YTD (9.09%) and LTM inflation (8.67%) can be explained because in November/December of 2012 the Government reduced energy rates to ensure the index did not reach two digits. Something similar has been announced for the two last months of 2013, so the market expects inflation similar to the first 10 months, around 8.5%-9%, considerably higher than the 3-7% official target range. For next year, Uruguay may not have a negative shock but a gradual slowdown of the economy, so the demand will not growth at the rates shown in the last years and may reduce inflationary pressure. Since July, the intention of the BCU is to contain the expansion of money supply to control inflation through monetary aggregates. The monetary authorities believe that no monetary policy alone is enough to contain inflationary pressures if it is not accompanied by prudent fiscal and income (wage) policies. In October the BCU performed the first meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee after changing to the new regime. In the official statement announced that the expansion of M1' 1 in the 3Q12 was 14.8%, ranking above the goal set by the BCU of 12.5% -13%. Although the gap was relatively small, is reasonable that there is a process of adaptation to the new scheme, volatility in monetary management during the quarter and formal forwarding the quarterly target carry the risk of further weakening the "expectations channel" of monetary policy, which we believe is particularly relevant in this regime (more "dark" monitoring by analysts and the general public). At the same time, the BCU announced that the target for the last quarter of the year is a growth of M1' of between 15% and 17%. While these variations are higher than recent, according to the Central Bank this implies continued tight monetary policy once the trajectory of M1' is corrected by statistical methods to correct seasonal and irregular effects. 1 The aggregate M1 payment is composed of the sum of money issuance held by the public, demand deposits of the public in the banking system, as a measure of the amount of money that is target control. It is important to note that M1 is not a variable that can handle directly by the BCU, but it has tools to affect the trend 3

4 In the five months of the change in monetary policy instrument, interest rates plummeted at the initial, but strengthen later. The US Dollar rose, but then appreciated and stabilized around UYU $/USD Since the BCU started to manage M1 (money in circulation) rather than the rate (price of money), the call rate showed much volatility. In the last week, the call rate Exhibit 2 stood around 15%. (Please refer to FX and Call Rate Exhibit 2). T-Bills yields continue at high levels. In a context of lower issuance levels (USD equivalent to 88 million) by BCU and high demand the yields increased. BCU yield on 30-day T-bills stood at 14.4%, 90-day average yield increased to 14.8%, 180-day hit 14.9% and 1yr increased to 14.9%. In 1yr UI Notes it accepted a yield of 5.10%. In almost all maturities, the BCU accepted less than the amount tendered, not to validate higher rates. However, as in previous weeks, the BCU again made direct issues in the secondary market for a total of $ 299 million. The FX appreciated 2.3% in October and closed at $/21.55, registering a depreciation of 11% YTD. Since mid- October, the FX rate traded around $ (Please refer to Exhibit 2). Local analysts forecast a FX around $ 21.8 at the end of Table 2 Inflation, FX and Monetary Indicators ( lll denote newly released data) 35,00% 30,00% 25,00% 20,00% 15,00% 10,00% 5,00% 0,00% 23,000 22,500 22,000 21,500 21,000 20,500 20,000 19,500 6/28/13 6/28/13 7/12/13 7/12/13 7/26/13 7/26/13 Call Rate (%) 8/9/13 8/23/13 9/6/13 9/20/13 FX Rate (UYUPeso/USD) 8/9/13 8/23/13 9/6/13 9/20/13 10/4/13 10/4/13 10/18/13 10/18/13 11/1/13 11/1/13 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 oct-13 Inflation Inflation (CPI, % change, monthly) 0,53% 0,70% -0,73% 0,66% 0,43% 1,36% 0,82% Inflation (CPI, % change, YTD) 6,93% 8,60% 7,48% 3,59% 4,84% 8,20% 9,09% Inflation (CPI, % change, y-o-y) 6,93% 8,60% 7,48% 8,54% 8,21% 9,02% 8,67% Exchange Rate Nominal exchange rate (UYU per USD, end of month) 20,10 19,90 19,40 18,95 20,57 22,06 21,55 Nominal exchange rate (UYU per USD, month average) 19,99 19,97 19,30 19,00 20,68 22,15 21,64 Domestic currency depreciation (% monthly) 0,7% 0,2% -1,3% -0,9% 1,3% -2,4% -2,3% Domestic currency depreciation (% YTD) 2,4% -1,0% -2,5% -2,3% 6,0% 13,7% 11,1% Domestic currency depreciation (% 12m) 2,4% -1,0% -2,5% -3,0% -6,2% 5,1% 8,3% Real Exchange Rate (REER) (Index, 2000=100) 98,00 91,65 83,40 80,40 83,80 85,50 n/a Monetary Indicators Central Bank foreign assets (USD MM) Bank Industry Deposits (USD MM) n/a Bank Industry Deposits - Private Sector (USD MM) n/a Bank Industry Deposits - Non Residents (USD MM) n/a Bank Industry Loans (USD MM) n/a Bank Industry Loans - Private Sector (USD MM) n/a Sources: BCU and INE. 4

5 3. Public Finances The consolidated fiscal deficit printed at 2.0% of GDP (US$1.03 billion) in the 12 months through September. This figure is aligned with the official target of 2.1% for the end of this year. Private analysts forecast a global fiscal deficit of 2.3% of GDP at the end of this year. The revenues of the Non-Financial Public Sector represented 30.3% of GDP in the rolling year ending in September 2013 (decreasing 0.1 pps compared to the previous month). Expenditures of the Non- Financial Public Sector increased 0.1 pps in the year ended in September versus August and reached 29.8% of GDP. The payment of interest on public debt increased 0.1pps and reached 2.9% (equivalent to USD 1.4 billion). The primary result (before the payment of debt interest) increased 0.2pps and registered a surplus of 0.9% of GDP (USD 545 million). The gross debt of the consolidated public debt amounted to the equivalent of USD30.8 billion as of 2Q13, representing 57.6% of GDP (1.1% lower than 1Q13). If the FX effect is excluded (which increased 8.5% in the period), the public debt decreased 3.4% during 2Q13 compared to 1Q13. The consolidated net public debt decreased 10.1% in relation to 1Q13 and totaled USD12.24 billion, equivalent to 22.8% of GDP. The decrease in the public debt is explained by an increase of the BCU reserves assets that reached USD 14.8 billion. The Government estimates that total net debt over GDP will continue decreasing up to 24% in the end of Table 3 Public Finances Indicators ( lll denote newly released data) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 oct-13 Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -1,2% -0,8% -2,8% -2,3% -2,0% -2,0% n/a Total External Debt (USD MM) n/a n/a External Debt (% of GDP) 47,5% 39,5% 42,3% 40,0% 39,7% n/a n/a Total Public Debt (USD MM) n/a n/a Public Debt (% of GDP) 61,5% 58,2% 62,4% 60,8% 57,6% n/a n/a Country Risk (end, bps) Sources: BCU, INE, MEF and RAFAP. 5

6 4. Debt and Capital Markets The Government cancelled 7 of the last 8 auctions (included the auctions of November) of its Second Issuance Program 2, as it was not willing to validate the high interest rates requested by local investors in the BCU issuances (Please refer to Exhibit 3). Exhibit 3 Auction Results Date Issue Maturity Coupon 27/08/2013 3y Peso Note (S.7) /08/2013 5y UI Note (S.20) /09/2013 3y Peso Note (S.7) 2016 Amount Tendered* Amount Accepted * USD Amount ** 25/09/ y UI Note (S.19) ,50% UI 350 UI 54 6,78 3,65% 22/10/2013 3y Peso Note (S.7) /10/2013 5y UI Note (S.20) /11/2013 3y Peso Note (S.7) /11/ y UI Note (S.19) /12/2013 3y Peso Note (S.7) 2016 TBD 27/12/2013 5y UI Note (S.20) 2018 TBD 28/01/2014 3y Peso Note (S.7) 2016 TBD 29/01/ y UI Note (S.19) ,50% (*) In million of UYU Peso or UI (**) USD million The high rates that are being paid by BCU are influenced by the regulation that T-bills cannot be bought by foreign investors (without a reserve requirement equivalent to 50% of incremental purchases). That distorts the local yield curve and therefore the Government decided not to issue at that level. The UI local yield curve (results of the BCU issues) is 5.10% for 1yr and 5.25% for 2 yr, while the UI Global Bond yield curve starts in 3.2% for 5y to 3.8% for If this situation does not change in December, we believe that the Government will not issue during that month. Meanwhile, the MEF calendar remains unchanged: the issue of a new a 3-year T- Note in Pesos for approximately USD 22MM on December 26 th and a 5-year T-Note in UI for approximately USD 48 MM on December 27 th. As the Government has pre-funded its debt service for the following months, it can afford to reject market demands. MEF sits on a cash and equivalents position of around USD 2,360 million (as of September 2013) representing 4.4% of GDP. The debt service for 4Q13, 2014 and 2015 represents 3.9% of GDP (approx. USD 2,092 million). Anyway, as a result of the local market shutdown for long term UI T-Notes, we believe that Uruguay could tap international capital markets soon, either in USD or UI. YTM 2 The Central Government launched its Second Issuance Program until January The Program aims to improve the efficiency of the local currency yield curve (nominal pesos and CPI linked) by a continuous supply of benchmarks bonds at reference points in each curve. The Government will issue new UYU 3-year - Notes (due 2016) and new 5-year UI Notes (due 2018). The Government will continue reopening the 10-year UI Notes (issued on September 2012 and due on 2022 and with an outstanding of UI 2,100 million). 6

7 Moreover, on August Uruguay priced 2 billion dollars in a new 10-year benchmark sovereign bond at a spread of basis points over US Treasuries as part of the government's bid to improve its debt profile. The bond priced at with a 4.5% coupon and 4.521% yield. The buyback is meant to help spread out Uruguay's debt payment schedule to put less strain on the government's fiscal accounts. The Government placed USD 2,000 million in a Global Bond 2024, with an oversubscription of 1.5x. In turn, received offers to sell shorter-term bonds, of which the Government accepted USD 763 of Global Bonds (with a value of USD 996 million) and USD 1,000 million of cash. Economic authorities face an increasingly complex financial scenario, where the trade-off between inflation and devaluation and political pressure limits their capacity for active policies to improve the macro environment, which still shows some healthy but deteriorating figures: Inflation pressure keep prices rising at an annual pace of 8-9%, Fx should follow more closely the BRL trend, but devaluation must be contained in order to avoid the inflation pass-through, hence hurting competitiveness of the country for exports and tourism The beginning of political campaigns for 2014 elections, and demands for higher wage adjustments as well as higher taxes on luxury goods, individual and corporate income, may also impact on growth and inflation. On the other hand, Uruguay is still attracting a strong flow of FDI, given its strategic need for investments in energy generation, infrastructure, logistics and the opportunities to keep growing in forestry, tourism, and the overall agro sector. The flow of FDI plus a still strong domestic demand would keep economic growing, unemployment at very low level, but a higher level of inflation and interest rates in Pesos. We believe that higher rates in the US and a strong dollar could negatively affect the latter. Energy Investments Uruguay is attracting a lot of investments on energy generation, which is critical to support the economic growth for the near future, and was stretched by the strong growth of the last decade. Among the main investment are: 1. Gas de France will invest USD 1.1billion in building a LNG regasification plant. The plant, which is expected to be operating by the first quarter of 2015, will have a processing capacity of up to 10 million cubic meters of LNG per day and the terminal will have a storage capacity of 267 million cubic meters. It will help diversify energy sources in Uruguay, which is completely dependent on oil imports, and eventually supply the Argentine market. Twelve companies were originally interested in this contract. UTE and Ancap are off-takers for this project. 2. Wind Farms: UTE the state owned electric co announced investments to develop 300MW of wind farms, which adds more generation capacity to the approximately 500MW being developed by the private sector based on 20-year PPAs with UTE. The Government strategy is to reach approximately 30% generation capacity based on wind by GAP Consultores has been hired by UTE as Financial Advisor for the wind farm project. 3. Solar Energy: UTE has awarded 150MW of solar energy PPAs in order to promote the development of more renewable energy sources. 4. Biomass: There are some small projects under development, and more than 100MW being added to the grid in early 2014 by Montes del Plata, the largest pulp mill in the country. 7

8 Table 4 Uruguay Bonds (priced as of November 21, 2013) DESCRIPTION Indicative Price YTM Rescue Value Par Value Acrrued Int. Current Rate Reset Date Service Coupon Rate Final Maturity Currency BENCHMARK GLOBAL BONDS (USD) Uruguay ,50% 108,00 1,35% 100% 100 1,38 7,5% 15-mar-14 INT 7,5% 15-mar-15 USD Uruguay ,625% 114,00 2,96% 100% 100 2,54 7,6% 20-ene-14 INT 7,6% 20-ene-17 USD Uruguay ,00% 125,00 4,58% 100% 100 4,07 8,0% 18-nov-13 INT 8,0% 18-nov-22 USD Uruguay ,50% 100,00 4,50% 100% 100 1,19 4,5% 14-feb-14 INT 4,5% 14-ago-24 USD Uruguay ,875% 123,00 5,86% 100% 100 2,73 7,9% 15-ene-14 INT 7,9% 15-ene-33 USD Uruguay ,625% 120,60 5,95% 100% 100 1,27 7,6% 21-mar-14 INT 7,6% 21-mar-36 USD Uruguay ,125% 76,10 5,77% 100% 100 0,00 4,1% 20-may-14 INT 4,1% 20-nov-45 USD BENCHMARK LOCAL BONDS BTU 2018 INC 109,10 4,69% 100% 100 0,68 7,0% 15-abr-14 INT 7,0% 15-abr-18 USD BTU 2018 INC. ESC 108,75 4,77% 100% 100 0,68 7,0% 15-abr-14 INT 7,0% 15-abr-18 USD PREVISIONAL BONDS PREV ,00% 119,50 3,08% 100% 100 1,87 8,0% 25-feb-14 INT 8,0% 25-feb-18 USD PREV 2018 ESC 116,50 3,77% 100% 100 1,87 8,0% 25-feb-14 INT 8,0% 25-feb-18 USD GLOBAL BONDS (in UYU linked to inflation) Uruguay %UI 108,00 3,19% 100% 107,17-0,37 5,0% 14-jun-14 INT 5,0% 14-sep-18 UI Uruguay ,25%UI 107,08 3,58% 100% 103,35 0,55 4,25% 05-abr-14 INT 4,25% 05-abr-27 UI Uruguay ,375%UI 106,20 3,85% 100% 107,17 2,04 4,375% 15-dic-13 INT 4,4% 15-dic-28 UI Uruguay %UI 101,50 3,88% 100% 102,7 1,48 4,00% 10-ene-14 INT 4,00% 10-jul-30 UI Uruguay ,7%UI 97,00 3,90% 100% 100,62 1,50 3,700% 26-dic-13 INT 3,7% 26-jun-37 UI T NOTES Ministry of Economy and Central Bank (in UYU linked to inflation) 1 year (0 cupon) 5,10% UI 2 year (0 cupon) 5,25% UI 5 year 2,25% NA UI 10 year 2,5% 3,65% UI Source: Merfin S.A. 8

9 Appendix A Historical Annual Data and 2013 Forecast (f) Real GDP (% average annual grow th rate) ** 7,4% 8,9% 2,9% 8,5% 5,7% 3,9% 3%-4% Nominal GDP (USD MM) Per Capita GDP (USD) Domestic currency depreciation (Dec/Dec)* -11,9% 13,0% -19,4% 2,4% -2,5% -2,5% 0,0% CPI (year end) 8,50% 9,19% 5,90% 6,93% 8,60% 7,48% 7%-8% *exchange rate ($/US$) increase Real GDP (% average annual grow th rate)*** 11,8% 6,6% 7,0% 7,4% 8,9% 2,9% 8,5% 5,7% 3,9% Nominal GDP (USD MM) Per Capita GDP (USD) FX UYU$/USD (Dec) 26,40 24,15 24,45 21,55 24,35 19,63 20,10 19,90 19,40 Domestic currency depreciation (Dec/Dec)* -10,1% -8,5% 1,2% -11,9% 13,0% -19,4% 2,4% -1,0% -2,5% CPI (year end) 7,6% 4,9% 6,4% 8,5% 9,2% 5,9% 6,9% 8,6% 7,5% Unemployment Rate 13,1% 12,2% 11,4% 9,7% 7,6% 7,3% 6,7% 6,0% 6,0% Real w ages (% average annual grow th rate) 2,9% 4,5% 3,7% 4,1% 4,3% 5,6% 3,4% 4,0% 1,5% Merchandise Balance (US$ MM) 153,00 21,0-499,0-545, Fiscal Balance (% of GDP) -2,0% -0,7% -0,8% -0,3% -1,4% -2,1% -1,2% -0,8% -2,8% Central Bank foreign assets (MM US$) Total External Debt (US$ MM) Total Public Debt (US$ MM) Public Debt (% of GDP) 100,8% 83,0% 71,0% 70,7% 51,3% 68,9% 57,6% 55,5% 59,4% Country Risk (year end, bps) Contact Information: Federico Araujo +598 (2) faraujo@gapconsultores.com Martin Lombardi +598 (2) mlombardi@gapconsultores.com María José Zerbino +598 (2) mjzerbino@gapconsultores.com Visit our webpage: Disclaimer: Additional information is available upon request. Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but GAP Consultores do not warrant its completeness or accuracy, no liability to third party will be accepted. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgement as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual client circumstances, objectives or needs. The recipient of this report must make its own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Periodic updates may be provided based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without prior written consent of GAP Consultores. 9