Project Ranking & Decision Support: The Experience from the Slovenian TSO ELES

Transcription

1 1 Project Ranking & Decision Support: The Experience from the Slovenian TSO ELES Univerza v Ljubljani Fakulteta za elektrotehniko Assoc.Prof. Andrej F. Gubina University of Ljubljana, Slovenia andrej.gubina@fe.uni-lj.si Saša Jamšek, M.Sc. ELES d.o.o., Slovenia sasa.jamsek@eles.si Anton Urankar, M.Sc. ELES d.o.o., Slovenia anton.urankar@eles.si

2 2 ELES The Slovenian TSO Member of ENTSO-E Covers the 400 kv, 220 kv and 110 kv networks Why focus on Asset Management? Slovenia is a transit country for power flowing to Italy ELES: a regulated company Strong transmission network compared to domestic demand High losses, high loading High O&M costs

3 Tools matrix at ELES

4 4 Risk Focused Asset Management in ELES Risk Focused Asset Management has been embraced by ELES as leading concept to Achieve the strategic goals and Meet the owner and other stakeholder demands Prioritization of the planned investment portfolio Projects in the portfolio are ranked With respect to the business values connected to company strategic goals According to risk score, using risk matrices The objective is optimal risk mitigation Risk level reduction per invested funds

5 Risk-based Asset Management Core competences and processes were developed to analyze the investment portfolio Risk management model used is based on business values. Software tool was introduced for project ranking based on risk mitigation priority: PPM Portfolio Prioritization Model.

6 Types of Investment Projects TOTAL INVESTMENT PORFOLIO 19. Project leading to lower risk reduction 2. Project Project leading to highest risk reduction DISCRETIONARY PROJECTS Discretionary projects Mandatory projects Current projects

7 Priority of the Current Projects ELES uses distinct criteria for project prioritization: Current projects: IV CF( k) = W Project size IV Level of completion Mandatory and Discretionary Projects: Risk rank reduction of the project Where: CF(k) = Criterion function IV(k) = Total investment for project k PS2015 = Funds allocated for 2015 to project k IVMAX = Investment of the most expensive current project RRRBV i (k) = Risk rank reduction for the business value i RRRIV(k) = Risk rank reduction for the investment level U i, W 1, W 2 = weights ( k) PS2015( k) W2 IV ( k) 1 + max 7 = i ( k) ( k) RRRBV U i 1 i RRRIV ( k) = IV

8 8 Impact of the Projects on Business Values Business values TS operation quality Finance Company image Envir. sustainability Customer service Regulatory compliance Safety Risks Investment projects Project Analysis Rationale for execution Priority Ranking

9 Rule: a Project Reduces Risk at least in ONE Business Value matrika ocenjevanja tveganj Verjetnost <0,0001/leto <0,001/leto <0,01/leto <0,1/leto >1/leto >10/leto >100/leto DM - Dejansko nemogoče globalno se zgodi enkrat Mo - Mogoče Ve - Verjetno Re - Redno Le - Letno Me - Mesečno St - Stalno zgodi se večkrat v evropskih TSO zgodi se v sosednjih TSO zgodi se večkrat v ELESu zgodi se večkrat na leto v ELESu zgodi se večkrat mesečno v ELESu zgodi se večkrat na teden v ELESu ZR - Zelo resne S S V ZV K K K K = Katastrofalno Re - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K ZV = Zelo visoko Pr - Precejšne Ne Ni S S V ZV K V = Visoko Zm - Zmerne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV S = Srednje Ma - Majhne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Ni = Nizko ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S Ne = Nepomembno Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S

10 Risk Ranking Weights Exponential TOČKE TVEGANJA <0,0001/leto <0,001/leto <0,01/leto <0,1/leto >1/leto >10/leto >100/leto DM - Dejansko nemogoče Verjetnost Mo - Mogoče Ve - Verjetno Re - Redno Le - Letno Me - Mesečno St - Stalno ZR - Zelo resne Re - Resne Pr - Precejšne Zm - Zmerne Ma - Majhne ZM - Zelo majhne Ne - Nepomembne

11 Risk level reduction due to project is estimated based on the business values. <0,0001/leto <0,001/leto <0,01/leto <0,1/leto Verjetnost >1/leto >10/leto >100/leto <0,0001/leto Mo - Mogoče <0,001/leto Ve - Verjetno<0,01/leto Re - Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno >1/leto Me - Mesečno>10/leto St - Stalno>100/leto nemogoče <0,0001/leto Mo - Mogoče <0,001/leto Ve - Verjetno<0,01/leto Re - Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno >1/leto Me - Mesečno>10/leto St - Stalno >100/leto nemogoče project the project <0,0001/leto Mo - Mogoče <0,001/leto Ve - Verjetno<0,01/leto Re - Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno >1/leto Me - Mesečno>10/leto St - Stalno>100/leto ZR - Zelo resne S nemogočes V ZV K K K <0,0001/leto Mo - Mogoče <0,001/leto Ve - Verjetno<0,01/leto Re - Redno<0,1/leto Le - Letno >1/leto Me - Mesečno>10/leto St - Stalno>100/leto ZR - Zelo resne S nemogočes V ZV K K K ZR - Zelo resne Mo - Mogoče Ve - Verjetno Re - Redno Le - Letno Me - Mesečno St - Stalno S nemogočes V ZV K K K Re - Resne ZR Ni - Zelo S S V ZV K K resne S S V ZV K K K ZR Ni - Zelo Re - Resne S S V ZV K K resne S S V ZV K K K Ni Re - Resne S S V ZV K K Ne Re Pr - Precejšne Ni S S V ZV K - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K Pr - Precejšne Ne Re Ni S S V ZV K - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K Pr - Precejšne Ne Ni S S V ZV K Zm - Zmerne Pr Ne - Precejšne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ni S S V ZV K Verjetnost Risk level with the Risk level without Zm - Zmerne Pr Ne - Precejšne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ni S S V ZV K Zm - Zmerne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Zm Ne- Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Zmerne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Zm Ne- Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Zmerne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ma Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S - Majhne Ni S S V ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ma Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S - Majhne Ni S S V ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S ZM Ne - Zelo Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S majhne Ni S S ZM Ne - Zelo Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S majhne Ni S S Ne Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S Business values: Transmission system operation quality Finance Company image Environmental sustainability Customer service Regulatory compliance Safety <0,0001/leto <0,001/leto <0,01/leto <0,1/leto Verjetnost >1/leto >10/leto >100/leto <0,0001/leto Mogoče <0,001/leto Verjetno<0,01/leto Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno >1/leto Mesečno>10/leto >100/leto Mo - Ve - Re - Me - St - Stalno nemogoče <0,0001/leto Mogoče <0,001/leto Verjetno<0,01/leto Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno >1/leto Mesečno>10/leto >100/leto Mo - Ve - Re - Me - St - Stalno nemogoče <0,0001/leto S Mogoče <0,001/leto V Verjetno<0,01/leto ZV Redno<0,1/leto Verjetnost Le - Letno K >1/leto K Mesečno>10/leto K >100/leto Mo - Ve - Re - Me - St - Stalno ZR - Zelo resne S nemogoče <0,0001/leto <0,001/leto <0,01/leto <0,1/leto >1/leto >10/leto >100/leto V ZV K K Mo - Mogoče Ve - Verjetno Re - Redno Le - Letno Me - Mesečno St - Stalno ZR - Zelo resne S S K nemogoče Mo - MogočeV Ve - Verjetno ZV Re - RednoK Le - Letno Me - Mesečno K St - Stalno ZR - Zelo resne S S K nemogoče Re - Resne ZR Ni - Zelo S S V ZV K K resne S S V ZV K K K Re - Resne ZR Ni - Zelo S S V ZV K K resne S S V ZV K K K Re - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K Pr - Precejšne Ne Re Ni S S V ZV K - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K Pr - Precejšne Ne Re Ni S S V ZV K - Resne Ni S S V ZV K K Pr - Precejšne Ne Ni S S V ZV K Zm - Zmerne Pr Ne - Precejšne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ni S S V ZV K Verjetnost Zm - Zmerne Pr Ne - Precejšne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ni S S V ZV K Zm - Zmerne Ne Ne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Zm Ne- Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Zmerne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Zm Ne- Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Zmerne Ni S S V ZV Ma - Majhne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S V Risk level without the project Risk level with the project ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ma Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S - Majhne Ni S S V ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ma Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S - Majhne Ni S S V ZM - Zelo majhne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S S Ne - Nepomembne ZM Ne - Zelo Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S majhne Ni S S ZM Ne - Zelo Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S majhne Ni S S Ne Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S Ne - Nepomembne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ne Ni S

12 BV1: Quality of supply BV2: Financial framework... BV7: Safety Weighted Risk Level Reduction for a Project Risk level reduction under Business value X X Weight for BV1 Weight for BV2 = X = X Weight for BV7 = Weighted risk level reduction under BV1 Weighted risk level reduction under BV2 Weighted risk level reduction under BV7 Business value weights TS operation quality 25% Finance 15% Company image 12% Environmental sustainability 12% Customer service 12% Regulatory compliance 12% Safety 12% Weighted risk level reduction

13 By ranking of the projects according to the business values and based on risk level reduction, ELES can: Show for each planned project its effect on the business values of ELES Show for each project the risks reduced and the level of risk reduction in each business value Rank the projects

14 Conclusion The proposed methodology can Be applied to all costs-influencing business values Help mitigating risks the company is exposed to Implemented end of 2014 First use: prioritization of the investment portfolio for the 3-year regulatory period

15 15 Questions? Thank you for your attention! Assoc. Prof. Andrej F. Gubina