Buy Dec 2017 TP (IDR) 10,200 Consensus Price (IDR) 9,393 TP to Consensus Price +8.6% vs. Last Price +17.2%
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1 Astra International, Tbk (ASII) Roaring 4W Optimism on 4W ASII booked 1Q17 revenue of IDR48.8 trillion (+16% y-y) and net profit of IDR5.1 trillion (+63% y-y). The hike in low MPV sales and LCGC sales contribution boosted the continuous positive trend of 4W sales. Meanwhile, the sales of 2W was still in negative trend even though it was capable of improving market share by 77%. Hike in commodities price and inflation as well as relatively lower interest rate shall be boosters for the growth in 2017 automotive business. However, the sales of 2W still faces challenge from sluggish purchasing power of low to middle class income. Non-Automotive Business Support The hike in commodities price allowed United Tractors (UNTR) to record revenue of IDR13.7 trillion (+27.9 y-y) and Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) of IDR4.5 trillion (+48.8%). It also had positive impact on operating margin of 15.2% by UNTR (vs 1Q16 operating margin of 11.9%) and 24.9% by AALI (vs 1Q16 operating margin of 11.2%). Besides, the strategy of BNLI s new management in reducing NPL was capable of securing 1Q17 net profit of IDR453 billion after suffering from 1Q16 net profit loss. Target Price of IDR10,200 We use an estimate of forward PE of 19.7x (+1 SD above the 3-year average of 17.8x) to obtain target price of December The target price implies a 2017E PE of 20.3x. Now, ASII is traded at a 2017E PE of 17.3x. Astra International, Tbk Summary (IDR bn) 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E Revenue 184, , , ,306 Revenue growth -8.7% -1.7% 9.3% 5.2% EBITDA 24,387 24,219 27,433 30,545 Net profit 14,464 15,156 20,316 21,141 EPS (IDR) EPS growth -24.6% 4.8% 34.0% 4.1% BVPS (IDR) 3,126 3,456 3,721 4,082 EBITDA margin 13.2% 13.4% 13.9% 14.7% NPM 7.9% 8.4% 10.3% 10.1% ROE 11.7% 11.4% 14.0% 13.4% ROA 6.0% 6.0% 7.5% 7.3% ROIC 7.1% 7.1% 7.7% 7.7% P/E 16.8x 22.1x 17.3x 16.7x P/BV 1.9x 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x EV/EBITDA 12.7x 16.7x 15.7x 13.9x DPS (IDR) Dividend yield 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research Please consider the rating criteria & important disclaimer NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Update 1Q17 May 29, 2017 Buy Dec 2017 TP (IDR) 10,200 Consensus Price (IDR) 9,393 TP to Consensus Price +8.6% vs. Last Price +17.2% Shares data Last Price (IDR) 8,700 Price date as of May 23, wk range (Hi/Lo) 9,350 / 6,350 Free float 45.1% Outstanding sh.(mn) 40,484 Market Cap (IDR bn) 352,206 Market Cap (USD mn) 26,280 Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn) 33 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn) 286 Foreign Ownership 99% Misc Industries Automotive Bloomberg Reuters Arnold Sampeliling , ext:170 arnold@nhsec.co.id Share Price Performance ASII.IJ ASII.JK YTD 1M 3M 12M Abs. Ret. 5.1% -3.6% 8.1% 36.5% Rel. Ret. -3.1% -4.5% 1.4% 15.7%
2 Revenue Breakdown 1Q17 Optimism for 4W 1Q17 performance marked the revival of ASII business. 4 ASII business with the biggest contribution recorded positive trend growth. The automotive business recorded the growth of IDR24 trillion (+8.9% y-y), financial service of IDR4.6 trillion (+7.6% y-y), heavy machinery and mining of IDR13.7 trillion (+27.9%), and agribusiness of IDR4.5 trillion (+48.8% y- y). The hike in commodities price enabled significant growth in business relating to commodities. Revenue Trend 1Q13-1Q17 LMPV sales growth and additional contribution from LCGC enabled ASII s 4W brand to succeed 1Q17 growth., NHKS research The launching of LCGC 7 seater such as Toyota Calya in 3Q16 consistently constitutes as booster growth of automotive business. LCGC recorded 1Q17 sales of 36,745 units (81% market share) in which Toyota Calya becomes the second best-selling car after Toyota Avanza. 1Q17 positive growth of Toyota Avanza also evidenced that ASII s 2 different car divisions: LMPV and LCGC experienced no cannibalization. Besides, the brands performance of Toyota and Daihatsu enabled ASII to recorded 1Q17 growth compared to its 3 major competitors. Toyota recorded sales of 174,074 units (+117% y-y) and Daihatsu recorded sales of 49,730 units (+17% y-y). Meanwhile, its competitors which are Honda, Mitsubishi, and Suzuki respectively recorded sales of -9% y-y, -6% y-y, and -16% y-y. Most Selling Car 1Q16-1Q17 1Q16 1Q17 Model Unit Sold Model Unit Sold Toyota Avanza 29,910 Toyota Avanza 35,713 Honda BRV 18,291 Toyota Calya 26,928 Kijang Innova 16,579 Honda Mobilio 14,204 Daihatsu Gran Max 12,881 Kijang Innova 13,256 Toyota Agya 12,744 Honda HRV 11,875 Honda Mobilio 11,817 Daihatsu Gran Max 10,916 Daihatsu Ayla 11,593 Daihatsu Xenia 11,382 Honda HRV 10,980 Daihatsu Sigra 9,904 Suzuki Ertiga 9,585 Daihatsu Ayla 9,200 Datsun Go 9,444 Suzuki Ertiga 8,603 Source: Gaikindo, Various Source Car Sales (Units) & Market Share 1Q13-1Q17 PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Research Page 22
3 2W division still marked 1Q17 faltering sales. However, ASII continuously endeavor to expand its domination to the market share by 77%. We oversee that the sluggish purchasing power of low to middle class income triggered 1Q17 faltering sales. The hike in electricity, commodities price, and a number of primary needs still having no significant impact to 1Q17 purchasing power curbed consumers interest in purchasing cars. Domestic Motorcycle Sales 3M We estimate that the growth in 2017 ASII automotive business is 3.9% boosted by the sales of MPV particularly Toyota Avanza and LCGC. The increasing middle class income in Indonesia will be the growth booster for LCGC sales. Improving commodities price, manageable inflation, relatively low interest rate are boosters for 2017 automotive sales. The improving commodities price, realization of government expenditure, manageable inflation, and relatively low interest rate are a number of catalysts for the growth in 2017 ASII automotive sales. Meanwhile, the sales of 2W in particular still expects to the purchasing power revival of low to middle class income. Non-Automotive Business Booster The improving commodities price directly effected UNTR performance. The mining contracting division as UNTR s biggest revenue contributor recorded the revenue of IDR6.3 trillion (+13% y-y). Besides, the hike in commodities price was also capable of increasing margin in which 1Q17 operating margin was 15.2% (vs 1Q16 operating margin of 11.9%) and net margin 6.6% (vs 1Q16 net margin of 4.1%). UNTR Revenue Trend 1Q13-1Q17 Source: UNTR PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Research Page 33
4 The hike in CPO price since 3Q16 also boosted AALI 1Q17 revenue to reach IDR4.5 trillion (+48.8% y-y). Furthermore, the operating margin also edged up by 24.9% (vs 1Q16 operating margin of 11.2%). In 2016, El Nino phenomenon decreased the total CPO production and faltered AALI performance. In contrary to 2016, in 2017, El Nino effect no longer exists; therefore, the CPO production regains its normal capacity. AALI Revenue Trend 1Q13-1Q17 From financial business, BNLI recorded 1Q17 net profit of IDR453 billion in inverse proportion to 1Q16 loss of IDR376 billion. This success was yield of NPL reduction strategy performed by the new management. BNLI recorded 1Q17 gross NPL of 6.4% slipping down from NPL of 8.8% in the end of BNLI NPL Ratio Source: BNLI, Bank Indonesia PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Research Page 44
5 Multiple Valuation Forward P/E band Last 3 years Dynamic Forward P/E band Last 3 years Source: NHKS research Source: NHKS research Rating and target price Date Rating Target Price Last Price Consensus vs Last Price vs Consensus 8/2/2016 Hold 9,025 8,000 7, % +23.2% 12/2/2016 Buy 8,775 7,550 8, % +1.2% 4/10/2017 Buy 10,200 8,775 9, % +11.6% 5/29/2017 Buy 10,200 8,700 9, % +8.6% Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research Analyst Coverage Rating Closing and Target Price Source: Bloomberg Source: NHKS research NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings 1. Period: End of year target price 2. Rating system based on a stock s absolute return from the date of publication Buy : Greater than +15% Hold : -15% to +15% Sell : Less than -15% PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Research Page 55
6 Summary of Financials ASII Summary Last Price (IDR) May 29, ,700 Target Price (IDR) Dec , /12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E Analyst: Arnold Sampeliling Rating: Buy ROE 11.7% 11.4% 14.0% 13.4% ROA 6.0% 6.0% 7.5% 7.3% INCOME STATEMENT DISCLAIMER This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom. All rights reserved by PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia ROIC 7.1% 7.1% 7.7% 7.7% EBITDA/Equity 19.8% 18.2% 18.9% 19.3% In IDR bn 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E EBITDA/Assets 10.1% 9.5% 10.1% 10.5% Net Sales 184, , , ,306 Cash Dividend (IDR bn) 8,744 6,801 6,954 6,954 Growth (% y/y) -8.7% -1.7% 9.3% 5.2% Dividend Yield (%) 3.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% COGS (147,486) (144,652) (157,695) (164,649) Payout Ratio (%) 45.6% 47.0% 45.0% 34.2% Gross Profit 36,710 36,432 40,239 43,657 DER 56% 51% 51% 48% Gross Margin 19.9% 20.1% 20.3% 21.0% Net Gearing 2234% 2242% 2452% 2508% Operating Expenses (19,498) (18,898) (19,790) (20,889) LT Debt to Equity 46% 37% 38% 37% EBIT 17,212 17,534 20,450 22,768 Capitalization Ratio 36% 34% 34% 32% EBIT Margin 9.3% 9.7% 10.3% 10.9% Equity Ratio 52% 53% 53% 55% Depreciation 7,175 6,685 6,983 7,777 Debt Ratio 29% 27% 27% 27% EBITDA 24,387 24,219 27,433 30,545 Financial Leverage 195% 190% 188% 184% EBITDA Margin 13.2% 13.4% 13.9% 14.7% Current Ratio 138% 124% 123% 135% Interest Expense (1,370) (1,745) (2,049) (1,831) Quick Ratio 114% 104% 101% 113% EBT 19,630 22,253 28,232 30,856 Cash Ratio 36% 33% 26% 36% Income Tax (4,017) (3,951) (5,022) (6,142) Par Value (IDR) Minority Interest (1,149) (3,146) (2,894) (3,573) Total Shares (mn) 40,484 40,484 40,484 40,484 Net Profit 14,464 15,156 20,316 21,141 Share Price (IDR) 6,000 8,275 8,700 8,700 Growth (% y/y) -24.6% 4.8% 34.0% 4.1% Market Cap (IDR tn) Net Profit Margin 7.9% 8.4% 10.3% 10.1% BALANCE SHEET In IDR bn 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E Cash 27,102 29,357 24,159 32,684 Price /Earnings 16.8x 22.1x 17.3x 16.7x Other Current Assets 78,059 81,046 90,482 91,015 Price /Book Value 1.9x 2.4x 2.3x 2.1x Total Current Assets 105, , , ,700 Price/Sales 1.3x 1.8x 1.8x 1.7x Net Fixed Assets 41,702 43,237 47,384 50,787 PE/EPS Growth -0.7x 4.6x 0.5x 4.1x LT Investments 38,453 46,542 55,252 55,502 EV/EBITDA 12.7x 16.7x 15.7x 13.9x Other Non Current Assets 60,119 61,673 65,700 68,327 EV/EBIT 18.0x 23.0x 21.1x 18.6x Total Assets 245, , , ,315 EV (IDR bn) 310, , , ,185 Payables 20,557 22,489 25,182 24,203 Sales CAGR (3-Yr) -0.7% -2.3% -0.6% 4.2% Curr Maturities of LT Debt 24,227 27,056 27,264 28,449 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) -9.4% -7.9% 1.9% 13.5% ST borrowings 11,975 18,764 19,596 18,158 Basic EPS (IDR) Total Current Liabilities 76,242 89,079 93,083 91,715 Diluted EPS (IDR) LT Debt 34,447 25,090 30,697 32,711 BVPS (IDR) 3,126 3,456 3,721 4,082 Other Non Current Liab. 8,213 7,780 8,576 8,645 Sales PS (IDR) 4,550 4,473 4,889 5,145 Total Liabilities 118, , , ,071 DPS (IDR) Shareholders' Equity 126, , , ,245 CASH FLOW STATEMENT DCF, RIM & EVA In IDR bn 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E 2015/12A 2016/12A 2017/12E 2018/12E Net Income 14,464 15,156 20,316 21,141 DCF (IDR bn) Deprec & Amortization 7,175 6,685 6,983 7,777 NOPAT 13,690 14,421 16,812 18,236 Chg. In Working Capital 4,651 6,580 (5,773) (1,667) +Depr./Amor. 7,175 6,685 6,983 7,777 CFO 26,290 28,421 21,526 27,251 -CAPEX (9,086) (10,408) (11,770) (12,468) Capex (9,086) (10,408) (11,770) (12,468) -Incr. (Decr.) in Working Cap. 4,651 6,580 (5,773) (1,667) CFI (7,541) (10,798) (22,085) (13,967) (Unlevered) FCFF 16,430 17,278 6,252 11,878 Dividends Paid (8,744) (6,801) (6,954) (6,954) WACC Net Borrowing (PMT) ,647 1,760 Cost of Debt (Tax Adj.) 9.9% 8.9% 8.6% 8.3% CFF (13,407) (5,888) (4,669) (4,759) Cost of Equity (COE) 11.2% 10.5% 10.1% 10.1% Net Changes in Cash 5,342 11,735 (5,228) 8,525 WACC (%) 10.9% 10.2% 9.8% 9.8% RIM OWNERSHIP PROFITABILITY & STABILITY VALUATION INDEX Spread (FROE-COE) (%) 0.8% 1.5% 4.4% 4.0% Residual Income (IDR) 944 1,860 6,222 5,958 By Geography % Shareholders % Equity Charge 13,520 13,296 14,093 15,184 Singapore 66.0 Jardine Cycle & C 50.1 EVA United States 15.5 Toyota Group 4.7 Invested Capital (IDR bn) 190, , , ,179 Japan 7.0 Aberdeen 3.3 ROIC-WACC (%) -3.7% -2.9% -1.8% -1.8% Luxembourg 4.7 Vanguard 1.6 EVA (IDR bn) (7,130) (5,739) (3,849) (4,016) PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia Company Research Page 66
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