2014 Mid Year Economic & Financial Market Outlook. Scott D. Knapp, CFA Director of Investment Strategy
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1 2014 Mid Year Economic & Financial Market Outlook Scott D. Knapp, CFA Director of Investment Strategy
2 Agenda 1. Review Recent Data 2. Look Forward to Remainder of Long-Term Outlook: Reaching a Fork in the Road
3 Disclaimer The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable. John Kenneth Galbraith
4 Review Recent Data
5 1Q 2014 GDP = Ouch! Silver lining: Signs of acceleration toward the end of the quarter.
6 Signs of Life in the Job Market
7 Improving Unemployment Rate Currently 6.1%
8 Asset Class % Returns as of June 30, 2014 Index 3 Mos. YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year U.S. Large-Cap Stock U.S. Mid-Cap Stock U.S. Small-Cap Stock International Stock Emerging Market Stock Investment Grade Bond High Yield Bond
9 Home Prices Up Very regionalized growth rates.
10 Household Debt is Down Assets are up, liabilities are down.
11 Wealth Effect $10 trillion increase in household net worth in Gains are attributable to rising asset values and deleveraging.
12 Looking Forward to the Remainder of 2014
13 2014 Outlook Pros Strong momentum Improving economy Valuations for U.S. large-cap stocks Continued easy monetary policy Near-term fiscal policy is more certain Positive wealth effect Cons Lowest quality stocks have outperformed Economy is still vulnerable to shocks Slow start due to weather Rising interest rates Volatility will return at some point Too much optimism?
14 The Conference Board s May 2014 Index of Leading & Coincident Economic Indicators The current recovery appears sustainable. 14
15 History of the S&P 500 s Trailing Price/Earnings Ratio Long-term average: 15.52x
16 Volatility Will Return 2013 volatility was unusually low.
17 Rising Interest Rates Key questions: How high? How fast? Why? 17
18 Long-Term Outlook: Reaching a Fork in the Road 18
19 Renaissance in Energy, Technology, Capital Goods, and Manufacturing 19
20 Renaissance in Energy, Technology, Capital Goods, and Manufacturing 20
21 Renaissance In Energy, Technology, Capital Goods and Manufacturing Reflects a structural shift in the economy. 21
22 Energy is Our Future Lemons turned into lemonade. 22
23 Falling U.S. Budget Deficit What happens after 2024? 23
24 Unsustainable Federal Spending Focus: Medicare & Medicaid, Social Security, Military, Interest on Debt 24
25 Unsustainable Federal Spending What happens when interest rates normalize? 25
26 Summary 2014 is off to a slow start, but should accelerate as the year passes. We believe the economic recovery is intact in spite of softness during the first quarter. Stock markets have once again posted solid returns. Stock markets are likely to be volatile and experience meaningful corrections. We see no evidence of a 1990s-style speculative bubble. Interest rates should rise as expectations for the economy improve. Long-term prospects for the economy are very positive. Unsustainable fiscal policies in the U.S. and other industrialized nations must be addressed. 26
27 Thank you Need help? Call us at the Investor Guidance Center , Monday Through Friday, 7 a.m. 5 p.m. CST Representatives are registered, securities are sold, and investment advisory services offered through CUNA Brokerage Services, Inc. (CBSI), member FINRA/SIPC, a registered broker/dealer and investment advisor, 2000 Heritage Way, Waverly, Iowa 50677, toll-free Non-deposit investment and insurance products are not federally insured, involve investment risk, may lose value, and are not obligations of or guaranteed by the financial institution. The Investor Guidance Center team members offer retirement and investment education but do not provide investment, legal or tax advice. Participants are encouraged to consult their own advisors. CUNA Mutual Group is the marketing name for CUNA Mutual Holding Company, a mutual insurance holding company, its subsidiaries and affiliates. Annuity insurance products are issued by CMFG Life Insurance Company and Members Life Insurance Company, both located in Madison, Wisconsin. Each insurer is solely responsible for the financial obligations under the policies and contracts it issues K
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